February 5, 2008

Where to find exit polls

One place to find exit poll data is to go here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

Then Control-F for "exit" then click on the state you want on the map. Then look for the link to "Full ... Exit Poll."

This is all part of my ongoing effort to get my readers to do my work for me.

Here, for example, are the race demographics of Democratic voters in California:

Vote by Race % of voters Clinton Obama
White 53% 43% 49%
Black 7% 16% 81%
Latino 29% 66% 33%
Asian 8% 73% 25%
Other 3% 43% 47%




Race of Candidate Was...
Clinton Obama
Most Important 6% 63% 35%
One of Several 11% 56% 43%
Not Important 82% 49% 46%




Was Race of Candidate Important to You
Clinton Obama
Yes 17% 59% 40%
No 82% 49% 46%

Hillary won 80% of California's Democratic high school dropouts and 61% of the no-college high school grads. So, if Hillary wins California, it looks like it will be on the strength of the "Son of Aladdin" vote. In contrast, Obama did very well in California among the bloc of white voters who want an "imaginary hip black friend," in the immortal words of an anonymous Clinton advisor.

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

7 comments:

Ben Franklin said...

This isn’t numbers crunching, but on Super Tuesday, McCain won almost exclusively in states that Republicans have almost no chance of winning in November. The only clear exceptions to that are Oklahoma and Missouri, the later where McCain has one with just 33 percent of the vote and with 3 or 4 percent separating McCain, Huckabee and Romney. In Oklahoma, McCain won in a state that has as its law one of the most stringent anti-illegal immigrant laws in the country. So, both of those wins are incongruous.

In the rest of the states McCain won, there is pretty much Zero chance for the Republican nominee to win in the general election in the fall.

As for Huckabee, he won in Southern states that just about ANY Republican candidate will win come November.

So however you look at the results, they mean less then they appear to mean. This also applies to Obama, who won in many states that the Democrat nominee has next to no chance to win, except for Illinois, which is in the bag for the Democrats (and is Obama's "home state"). So, Obama’s big delegate count on Super Tuesday is vastly overstated, what with his winning North Dakota, Utah, Idaho, etc.

I’d say that Hillary comes out of Super Tuesday looking like by far the strongest candidate in the field of either party.

savvygoper said...

The demographics breakdown confirms something I have long found to be true. Blacks are not loyal Democrats per se, they are loyal tribalists. Hence the 80 plus percent of Obama's vote count among black voters. Very similar numbers to the 2004 presidential election.

savvygoper said...

Re: ben franklin. McCain won in Florida, New Hampshire, and of course Arizona as well.

Ben Franklin said...

Re: savvygoper

I was talking about tonight of course. McCain has been the projected winner in Arizona, his home state, but not by an impressive margin. It looks as if McCain hasn’t reached 50 percent in the state he has represented for a quarter of a century. Not to put too fine a point on it, but McCain isn’t liked in Arizona. Come the fall, if given a choice between McCain and Hillary, the voters who elected Janet Napolitano as governor could well vote for Clinton. Note that Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996 against Dole, who in some ways resembles McCain.

I’d guess that Hillary would also win New Hampshire, which is trending to the left and is on the verge of becoming a Blue state. And a Hillary vs. McCain race would likely put Florida into play as well, although the Republican governor may give McCain a fighting chance there.

Just as McCain won in states that are going Democrat in the fall, Obama won in states that are going Republican, such as Utah, Kansas, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota maybe Colorado etc. Certainly, Obama isn’t going to win those states in a general election. Thus, many of Obama’s delegates don’t really mean much. And I would say the same thing about McCain, many of his delegates don’t represent the voters who have made up the Republican winning presidential majority of the past 28 years.

Having Blue state voters pick the Red state Republican nominee doesn’t make any sense, especially when that nominee isn’t really going to appeal to or have any real chance at winning those Blue states.

Anonymous said...

Interesting to note that right behind Blacks tribally following Obama @ 81% , Asians followed Clinton @ 73%.

I suspect California Asians are a bit better educated and thus more critically evaluate Obama without getting caught up in his emotional surge.

More importantly, Asians realize that they and their kids are the ones who primarily pay for affirmative action and fear what Obama and his entourage will do once in power given his Black Nationalist liberation church affiliation.

JW Ogden said...

Is anyone other than me surprised that Obama is not not getting 95% or more of the black vote?

RKU said...

Unless I made a mistake with my calculator, these exit polling numbers for Obama aren't correct, i.e. they don't match his actual vote count, being a few points too high.

Normally, they'd be "adjusted" to tie-out with the final results (that included a huge number of mailed ballots), but I'd half suspect that the media was reluctant to lower the initial (inflated) non-black numbers which they'd shown.

Since his Hispanic and Asian numbers are already pretty low, I'll bet his white numbers are the inflated ones. They should probably be about 7 points lower.