February 9, 2009

I, for one, welcome our new Canadian retiree overlords

Who might buy foreclosed Sand State mcMansions?

The Canadian economy is now being dragged down by the U.S. collapse, but Canadians aren't as burdened by debt as Americans are. The Canadian government has been running surpluses, and there wasn't much of a housing bubble up there. There are a lot of Canadian baby boomers reaching retirement age, and the idea of buying or renting a cheap winter home in California, Nevada, Arizona, or Florida has to sound appealing.

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Somehow I doubt massive white immigration is going to make any political headway. There's just no grievance card to play.

Anonymous said...

You are correct - the natural owners of some of these sand state homes are people who live in cold climates.


Go to realtor.com and look up surprise, Arizona I am just using this as an example - Surprise is an exurb of Phoenix - you could live there and commute to a job but really it makes more sense as a retirement destination. You will see a selection of pretty nice four bedroom relatively new houses for less than 99 thousand dollars.

Nice thing is that Phoenix is a hub airport so you can probably get to phoenix nonstop from most major canadian cities.


my understanding is that canadians like to be around other canadians - the hollywood florida area (between miami and fort lauderdale) is now very heavily canadian

don't know if there is a concentration of canadians in any of the western sand states - yet

Anonymous said...

Too big, to much upkeep and taxes for a retirement home or a second home.

Tokyo Pete said...

What about wealthy overseas Chinese? Those gigantic houses make for a perfect gathering of the extended family...plus, close to the outlet malls, so a perfect excuse to go shopping. Gung hay fat choy!

I picture any Canadians willing to live South of the Border as the ultimate SWPLs, so they'll just get a condo in one of the New Urbanist downtowns.

Roger Chaillet said...

Steve, once again you are clairvoyant!

http://www.paulkaplanrealtor.com/ForeignBuyers.php

Oh yeah.

Let's not forget wealthy Mexicans snapping up expensive homes on the north side of San Antonio, and Chula Vista, near San Diego.

Town Planner said...

"There are a lot of Canadian baby boomers reaching retirement age, and the idea of buying or renting a cheap winter home in California, Nevada, Arizona, or Florida has to sound appealing."

That's a good idea, but many Canadians likely wouldn't want to live in one of these unnecessarily crowded and boring suburban subdivisions. Too many people refuse to acknowledge how we have severely scarred the American landscape with these horrible subdivisions when we should have been constructing or reconstruction small village-type arrangements instead with local amenities within reasonable walking distances and more cohesive local communities.

Bill said...

The HK Chinese in Canada are probably already on it, but your typical cheesehead canuck probably has a window of opportunity of about six months before their own economy tanks. Most won't take it up because they are complacent fools, and either stoned or addled by large doses of Labatt's or Kokanee (or, God forbid, that awful MacNaughton whiskey).

The Reticulator said...

we should have been constructing or reconstruction small village-type arrangements

What do you mean, "we"?

Anonymous said...

Canadian retirees have been wintering in Florida, Arizona and California in large numbers for generations. It's nothing new, although there is definitely an increase in advertising by Florida real estate companies lately.

eh said...

Plenty of diversity in those states. But Canadians love diversity, so that shouldn't be an issue:

Currently Canada is known as a country with a broad immigration policy which is reflected in Canada's ethnic diversity. According to the 2001 census by Statistics Canada, Canada has 34 ethnic groups with at least one hundred thousand members each, of which 10 have over 1,000,000 people...In 2007, Canada received 236,760 immigrants. The top ten sending countries, by state of origin, were People's Republic of China (28,896), India (28,520), Philippines (19,718), Pakistan (9,808), United States (8,750), United Kingdom (7,324), Iran (7,195), South Korea (5,909), Colombia (5,382), and Sri Lanka (4,068).[2] The top ten source countries were followed closely by France (4,026), and Morocco (4,025), with Romania, Russia and Algeria. each contributing over 3,500 immigrants...According to Canada's Immigration Program (October 2004) Canada has the highest per capita immigration rate in the world,...

Steve Sailer said...

So, Mexico doesn't make the top 15 source countries for new Canadian immigrants?

CJ said...

my understanding is that canadians like to be around other canadians - the hollywood florida area (between miami and fort lauderdale) is now very heavily canadian

That is true in the case of Quebec French Canadians, who are numerous in that part of Florida, but much less so with English speakers. If they are numerous in an area, it is probably more for reasons of affordability and accessibility. English Canadians who actually live full- or part-time in the U.S. tend to like Americans, hard as that may be for some to believe. You may well have met some of them without realizing it. If they don't tell you they're Canadians, and lots of them won't unless asked directly, they're not that easy to distinguish from, say, Minnesotans.

During the nominally Conservative government of Brian Mulroney (1984-93), there was discussion about organizing an expatriate vote for Canadian federal elections. At the time it was estimated that about 10% of the population was living outside the country, mostly in southern Florida and southern California, and that those expatriates were much more apt to vote for the Conservative Party than their snowbound brethren. Unfortunately, the idea was never implemented, probably because like the Republicans, the Conservatives have a tendency to be the Stupid Party.

It occurs to me that in some ways Mulroney was our George W. Bush -- a CINO who ran up deficits while making no attempt to undo the leftist social engineering of the Liberals, and did major damage to his own party. But I digress.

Yes, Canadians aren't as far underwater in debt as Americans, and their banks weren't allowed to merge and acquire their way into too-big-too-fail insolvency, but the Canadian economy is based primarily on exports to the United States and secondarily on commodity exports to Asia. IOW, right now it's going down like an intern in the Clinton White House.

When you couple that with the high taxes necessitated by the welfare state and the need to pay off the deficits accumulated by Trudeau and Mulroney, you can understand why even middle-class Canadians don't have that much money to throw around. Unless the Canadian dollar goes way up (which I find improbable although Peter Schiff predicts it) you're not likely to see that many more of them. Keep in mind that the retirees are generally not immigrants, but rather are tourists allowed to visit the U.S. for periods not exceeding 180 days. Many Canadians working in the U.S. are doing so not on green cards but on TN visas (the kind I had) which must be renewed yearly and are only granted for specific jobs. Canadians are not, repeat not eligible for H1-B visas and have never been eligible for the green card lottery. Steve may be ready to welcome Canuck overlords, but Ted Kennedy isn't.

SKT said...

I doubt it. Canadians don't have much disposable income.

Anonymous said...

some retirees have got to want to buy those houses for 99 thousand

i mean a tiny tiny condo in manhattan still costs a retiree a million bucks.

if you can spend a million bucks on a condo in manhattan what's another 99k for a winter house?

Similarly, a little place in the back bay or beacon hill in boston is 800k -

the 99k for a winter house is just a rounding error

it makes no sense for a retiree to stay in a snowbound city where they will likely slip fall and break a hip when they can instead be in arizona

clem said...

So, Mexico doesn't make the top 15 source countries for new Canadian immigrants?

No, but it's probably in Canadians' top 15 tourism destinations ... over the winter, at least.

Anonymous said...

According to the CIA World Factbook, Canada's national debt as a percenatage of GDP (62.3%) is about the same as the US's (60.8%).

DCS said...

Last March my wife and I rented a condo for a week in Palm Springs. We were stunned by the number of Canadians who were spending 2-3 months at the complex. Obviously the exchange rate favors them doing this. Most of them were not retirees, either: just moderately affluent Canadians looking for some sun time.

eh said...

So, Mexico doesn't make the top 15 source countries for new Canadian immigrants?

They never make it that far north. Apparently. No idea why.

ERM said...

I picture any Canadians willing to live South of the Border as the ultimate SWPLs, so they'll just get a condo in one of the New Urbanist downtowns.

Are you kidding? Exactly the opposite, kemosabe.

Ronduck said...

don't know if there is a concentration of Canadians in any of the western sand states - yet

A lot of the snowbirds in the eastern half of Mesa, AZ have Canadian license plates. Most of the Canadian license plates spotted here are from western Canada, with the occasional Quebec plate. Weirdly enough we used to have a colony of Brits locally, although I don't know what happened to them.

eh said...

don't know if there is a concentration of canadians in any of the western sand states - yet

Jack Kent Cooke

As a Canadian, Cooke's first love was ice hockey, and he was determined to bring the National Hockey League to Los Angeles. When the Pacific Coast Hockey League, which maintained franchises in California, threatened to become a major league and compete for the Stanley Cup, Cooke paid the NHL $2 million to establish a team in Los Angeles. The Los Angeles Kings were welcomed into the League in 1967.

In order to accommodate his new hockey team as well as the Lakers, Cooke announced that he would be building "the most beautiful arena in the world". He delivered on his promise, unveiling The Forum in the L.A. suburb of Inglewood to rave reviews. The building was soon nicknamed The Fabulous Forum. The Kings struggled both on the ice and at the gate, however. Cooke had been told that there were over 300,000 former Canadians living within a three-hour drive of Los Angeles, and remarked, "Now I know why they left Canada: They hate hockey!" Cooke sold the Forum, Kings and Lakers in 1979 to Dr. Jerry Buss.

ben tillman said...

Canada has 34 ethnic groups with at least one hundred thousand members each, of which 10 have over 1,000,000 people....

No way in hell. The numbers don't work.