March 29, 2012

Marco Rubio's Veep chances spiking

A commenter points us to this Intrade betting market chance showing Marco Rubio's probability of being the Republican Veep spiking last week, before falling off a little bit. Today, Rubio endorsed Romney. Rubio is at 33% and nobody else is above 10%. I'm guessing that is somewhat due to punters hypothesizing in complicated fashions about the Trayvon thingie involving a White Hispanic in Florida. 

Helluva a way to pick a potential President ...

Admittedly, I haven't paid much attention to Rubio, but doesn't he have Good-Looking Local Small-Timer written all over him? Not that there's anything wrong with that. The guy is only 40-years-old and doesn't particularly appear to be a quick learner, either. 

I realize the neocons and the Tea Partiers both like him, but still ... If he was the exact same guy, but just had an Italian rather than Spanish surname, I'd think he'd be getting talked up as a potential Lt. Governor, not as Vice-President heir apparent. 

Is this the best we can do?

65 comments:

Anonymous said...

Actually he's been thought of as a shoe-in for VP for quite some time.

Him and Romney make for a nightmare foreign policy duo.

Anonymous said...

I think they want a guy under 55.

Anonymous said...

It is the best we can do actually.

Anonymous said...

I've followed him Steve. No, not small timer AT ALL. Articulate, smart, quick on his feet, knows a lot.

Frankly, I don't know how you couldn't have followed him. He made a lot of waves during his Senate campaign.

Anonymous said...

"
Admittedly, I haven't paid much attention to Rubio, but doesn't he have Good-Looking Local Small-Timer written all over him? Not that there's anything wrong with that. The guy is only 40-years-old and doesn't particularly appear to be a quick learner, either."

Your jealousy is epic. People who think that you are an autistic dolt for saying the things you do should realize that you are not. You are always claiming to be a cold and rational individual with low emotionality, but you are clearly capable of the same pettiness and jealousy of neurotypical people.

It hurts you that Marco Rubio has accomplished more in life at age 40 than you have at 50+. I am also laughing at your comment that he is not a "quick learner". Watch his speeches. He is very eloquent and logical in what he says, and clearly is of above average intelligence. He also graduated with honors with a law degree. What did you graduate at again? Oh yeah, an MBA from UCLA on finance and marketing. LOL...

Anonymous said...

"The guy is only 40-years-old and doesn't particularly appear to be a quick learner, either."

Why would you say that, not having followed him or listened to him? He's bright.

Actually, I am not at all sure, though, that he will be the veep nominee. Many months remain between now and when Romney has to pick. He needs Florida, but I hope he isn't under any misunderstanding about Rubio getting him many Hispanic votes. Mexicans don't view Cubans as family.

I only wish he had a few more years of Senate experience under his belt.

C. Van Carter said...

The GOP's great "brown" hope.

Anonymous said...

Romney doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who drinks the Kool-Aid over the importance of Hispanic outreach. I'm guessing he'll settle for appearances, since surely his diligent, gimlet-eyed campaign staff understands that the Hispanic vote will break against them 65%-35% no matter what. And besides, Rubio is a nothing-burger with mayonnaise who offers no electoral advantage -- Florida's going Red in 2012 with or without Desi Arnaz Jr. as VP candidate. What would really excite the tea party types is another strong conservative female from state politics -- perhaps from WI or Minnesota, purple states trending red because of substantial white majorities and the new emerging implicit white identity politics, helped along by our white-hater-in-chief and all the various and sundry minority political causcuses raiding the treasury and running up the national debt to pay for gold teeth, spinner hubcaps, and public sector job creation.

Feverfew said...

https://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=743554&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

The month one illustrates this better.

And yes, this will probably be the best we can do. I believe Lee Kwan Yew had some insight about this type of thing.

Baloo said...

Whatever happened to that guy on CHiPs? He's just as good-looking, and surely more mature by now.

beowulf said...

"Actually he's been thought of as a shoe-in for VP for quite some time."
Nahh, its going to be Mike Huckabee. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Romney have a handshake deal that in exchange for Huckabee not running again, Romney would pick him. Even if there is no deal already in place, he's the obvious choice.
Huckabee' an evangelical conservative (Baptist minister) with solid political experience (10 years as governor, ran for president last cycle) who's a likeable, telegenic guy (currently hosts a TV show).

Anonymous said...

Did Trayvon Martin pay for the candy and skittles he obtained from the 7-11?

anony-mouse said...

I think he might be an IQ point or two ahead of his would be direct competitor, Biden, dontchathink?

Anonymous said...

He also graduated with honors with a law degree. What did you graduate at again? Oh yeah, an MBA from UCLA on finance and marketing.

Actually, Rice undergrad and UCLA biz school are much more impressive than Univ of Florida undergrad and Univ of Miami law school.

Rice and UCLA are world class universities. And they're respectable. Nobody is embarrassed to come out of Rice or UCLA. Whereas U of Florida and U of Miami are just low class.

Florida and Miami are crappy schools, especially academically.

People from Rice and UCLA have higher IQs than Florida and Miami.

Anonymous said...

I think Paul Ryan would be a better choice.

Olave d'Estienne said...

Numbers USA gives Rubio a B- on The Issue. (Ron Paul gets a B as a Congressman, but not as a presidential candidate.)

P.S. When do you think HBD Day should occur?

Feverfew said...

I looked up when Obama uttered his quote, "If I had a son, he'd look like Trayvon," as well as urging soul searching, to compare it to the spike. Obama made these comments on Friday morning, which was when the spike began, peaking the following day. It went down slightly the next day, but Obama and Trayvon have boosted his fortunes.

I don't see it as so bad. Everyone, everywhere gets the government they deserve, always. You didn't put a gun to all those SWPLs' heads and force them to have so few kids, love abortion, love cheap labor, and replace themselves with minorities. They chose this. America is the land of cheap labor and opportunity and we need to make nice.

Anonymous said...

VDARE's favorite,Kris Kobach, went to Harvard College and Yale Law School and has two advanced degrees from Oxford.

Plus he was a missionary in Uganda and helped build a school in a South African township.

The guy's grossly overqualified for VP by 21st century standards.

Anonymous said...

The guy's grossly overqualified for VP by 21st century standards.

He spells his name "Chris" with a "K" though. It's low class.

Though "Marco" is low class too. As well as surnames that end in vowels.

Anonymous said...

"Did Trayvon Martin pay for the candy and skittles he obtained from the 7-11?"

Interesting question. Maybe he showed up for a flash mob but nobody came.

Kylie said...

"'Admittedly, I haven't paid much attention to Rubio, but doesn't he have Good-Looking Local Small-Timer written all over him? Not that there's anything wrong with that. The guy is only 40-years-old and doesn't particularly appear to be a quick learner, either.'

Your jealousy is epic. People who think that you are an autistic dolt for saying the things you do should realize that you are not. You are always claiming to be a cold and rational individual with low emotionality, but you are clearly capable of the same pettiness and jealousy of neurotypical people."


Looks like you've been reading too many of those Chinese zodiac place mats. What sign were you born under? The year of the weasel?

Quit projecting. You won't feel any better but you may come across as slightly less contemptible.

Anonymous said...

Ryan is a policy wonk, a sharp mind, and he just may be the guy that the young people in their 20s, 30s, and early 40s might listen to about their economic futures...or lack of futures.

He might not be that great on the campaign trail, however.

I'd like to see Romney and his Veep do a tv campaign, period. The days of speaking to crowds, all that phony stuff Obama did should be over, and furthermore, Obama does that production of drama better than anyone.

The only pol who can actually be great in person is Chris Christie, but I don't think CC can deliver Jersey and I don't think America is ready for his tongue nor should a VEEP overshadow the top of the ticket and let's face it, Christie would overshadow in every way imaginable ANY politician the US has in office right now. Obama would look and sound like Mr. Peepers.

Anonymous said...

"I think Paul Ryan would be a better choice."

How is he on the National Question? I thought he was kind of a jerk.

Mercer said...

Rubio is a big invade the world neocon. Douthat wrote a column contrasting him with Rand Paul.

Anonymous said...

Paul Ryan a jerk?

Hell, no. Just the opposite, probably much too normal, too nice a guy for the public scrutiny of high national office.

Or am I missing what are alluding to?

David Davenport said...

Christie would overshadow in every way imaginable ANY politician the US has in office right now.

Overshadow as fat, fat, fat. Ladies and children, don't let that blob sit on your lap!

An excellent candidate for the William McKinley era.

Anonymous said...

Mercer,

And you're going to buy what Douthat says?

Pincher Martin said...

I remember reading about how many Americans in 1960 believed John F Kennedy was unqualified to be president.

By that time, the 43-year-old Kennedy had been in the U.S. Senate for seven years, and had previously been in the HoR for six years. He had served in wartime as a naval captain and was believed by the public to have written an award-winning history.

When you compare Kennedy's career accomplishments to the hot new politicians of today -- like Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, or Marco Rubio -- he looks like an old man of politics.

In fact, you could add all the years in politics that each of those four living politicians spent in a national or major state position (like governor) before they were considered presidential material, and you still wouldn't have the experience Kennedy had in 1960.

Its ironic that as the American population has gotten older, they've tended to favor much younger, inexperienced politicians than they did when the population skewed much younger.

Zhora Misha said...

Rubio concealed his forays into the Mormon religion. With likely nominee Romney heading up the ticket, I find Rubio a very long shot.

Pincher Martin said...

As for Rubio, I think it would be a bad political mistake for the GOP to nominate for the vice presidency a man who has spent less than two years in a major national office and no time at all in an executive position.

Like Palin, Rubio simply doesn't know enough to be vice president. I don't care how smart you are -- and I suspect Rubio isn't as bright as his many avid supporters claim -- that's not enough time to take in what you need to know to successfully handle the media pressure and information overload that comes with the high-profile national position. Rubio won't have an acquiescent media to smooth things over for him as Obama did in 2008 when he ran for president.

For Christ's sakes, Dan Quayle had been in Congress for six times the length of time as Rubio has been in the Senate before he was nominated by Bush in 1988 to be his vice president.

Steve Sailer said...

And 47-year-old Nixon had been Veep for eight years.

The Big One sped things up.

Similarly, the Ulysses S. Grant was almost exactly the same age as Barack Obama when they were each elected President. Who had more experience?

All those post-Civil War presidents whom we are always told were so bad were all men who had proved themselves to their fellow men during the Civil War.

Mercer said...

"And you're going to buy what Douthat says?"

Are you going to believe Rubio's press releases? This is what I found in less than a minute:

"an emboldened Iran has turned to Latin America to help pursue its goals, with the threat manifesting itself in the region in several alarming ways."

http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=1b972c0b-a898-4958-ac0c-c44b244ae167

Pincher Martin said...

Steve,

"And 47-year-old Nixon had been Veep for eight years."

And Nixon still had many doubters in the Republican Party who thought, as Eisenhower reportedly thought, that he wasn't meant for bigger things. Had Nixon not been such a work horse and intelligent political operator, I doubt he would have had a chance in 1960 to win the nomination. Up to that time being vice president didn't mean nearly as much as it means today.

"The Big One sped things up."

Undoubtedly. But I wonder to what degree things were already moving in that direction before 2008. John Edwards ran a competitive race in 2004 with just one uninspiring Senate term under his belt. And Hillary Clinton probably could have won the Democratic presidential nomination that year with less than one full Senate term had she bothered to run, which many of her supporters were begging her to do.

But Hillary was still operating under the old rules in which she thought a politician had to put in their time before demonstrating such unbridled ambition. Given how close the pathetic John Kerry ran with Bush in 2004, I wonder if she missed her chance.

"All those post-Civil War presidents whom we are always told were so bad were all men who had proved themselves to their fellow men during the Civil War"

True. But we also had yet to turn the presidency into the position of Official National Demigod that we would in the twentieth century. Presidents were responsible for so much less than they are now that's it's hard for me to even think of it as the same position.

Anonymous said...

Zhora Misha said...
Rubio concealed his forays into the Mormon religion.

Nice try. His parents did that.

Are you a democratic operative, by any chance?

Anonymous said...

Someone said Rubio is the GOP's great brown hope?

Funny, I think of Rubio as white.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Mercer,

Have you heard of talking tough in the area of foreign diplomacy or would you like Rubio to say, "I plan on apologizing to the world and making nice-nice with those crazies in Iran"?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I feel the same way. I have nothing against Rubio. He seems no worse than the average Republican Senator. But I'm always left scratching my head as to why exactly he's tipped as the future of the party. He seems pretty mediocre, all in all.

If Republicans seriously think that Rubio will bring Hispanics into the party, they're just being stupid. Again.

Anonymous said...

He also graduated with honors with a law degree. What did you graduate at again? Oh yeah, an MBA from UCLA on finance and marketing. LOL.


Sweet Jesus, you actually think that a law degree from the University of Miami shows more smarts than an MBA from UCLA?

LOL, indeed.

Lawyers are the dumbest of all the "professionals" in America.

Anonymous said...

Unlike George Zimmerman, Marco Rubio really is a "white Hispanic". That is, he is ethnically or racially white, and his parents were born in a country which the US Government designates as "Hispanic".

Anonymous said...

I used to live in Florida and voted for him. He is an amazing political talent--a Hispanic Clinton.

Unfortunately, he has even more skeletons than Clinton. He runs a very Cuban-like (Batista-like not Castro-like) political operation with open corruption and scandals that have already tarred several family members. Somehow he mesmerizes enough to win anyway in Florida but I think it is extremely dangerous to take this national.

Geoff Matthews said...

It's my understanding that the professional hispanics hate him, so I view that as a positive.
they hate him because of his lack of enthusiasm for amnesty. How dare he turn his back on his people.
Not that his people are Mexicans, but still, how dare he.

Mr. Anon said...

"Anonymous said...

It hurts you that Marco Rubio has accomplished more in life at age 40 than you have at 50+. I am also laughing at your comment that he is not a "quick learner"."

What has Rubio accomplished? He convinced a lot of people who don't know him to vote for him. He convinced a lot of wealthy campaign doners that he would be a sufficiently agreeable fluffer. He is, like most politicians in contemporary America, a cardboard cut-out, a vacuous nothing - as unremarkable and dispensible as the ad on a bill-board, here for a while and soon gone and forgotten.

Steve has actually changed a lot of people's minds, and helped them to look at the world in a new way. He is much more accomplished than nearly any Senator now serving. Who is now more significant? George Orwell? Or the now forgotten MPs whom he voted for?

Geoff Matthews said...

Gotta agree that I'd like someone with more life experience. An Allen West or something.
The advantage about running early is that you don't have a record to use against you. That's why Obama did so well. People could project their hopes onto him.
This is what happens when we magnify every fault beyond its importance. Doesn't help that we've made the government so important. If the feds did fewer things, then we'd care about the faults a lot less.

Mondraggin said...

So if Romney picks Rubio, then both members of the Republican ticket will be legally Hispanic and eligible for Affirmative Action, as are both members of the Democratic ticket (assuming Hillary is still there.) I'm so glad AA is helping out the powerless.

Anonymous said...

Rubio's SOPA legislation was one of the biggest political train wrecks of recent memory (thank god), and they want to reward this corporate lackey with a dead-end job. So be it!

oh said...

Rubio is not "brown." He is descended from those Spanish the PC crowd is always ragging on for destroying the Indians. Except of course there are more "brown" people of mostly Indian, or even purely Indian ancestry in Latin America now than ever, but that's another story.
Your name ending in an 'o' is a linguistic thing, not a racial characteristic.

Chicago said...

Rubio has demonstrated his Spanish language ability in public which brings up an association in people's minds with the much disliked "push button two for English" situation that people have been force-fed. Also, just looking at him one immediately wonders what his closet skeletons are as he's a bit too smooth. At a subliminal level it seems that most people instinctively trust the whiter, lighter North European types more than the others. Whether right or wrong, that seems to be the inherent perception.

Acilius said...

"doesn't he have Good-Looking Local Small-Timer written all over him?" He does, as does Joseph Biden. I vaguely recall that you pointed out during the 2008 campaign that neither Biden in Delaware nor Palin in Alaska had faced as large an electorate as does an L.A. County Supervisor, and that L.A. County Supervisors are not exactly the world's foremost statesmen. So Good-Looking Local Small-Timer is no handicap in general.

Two things do limit Rubio's chances of being Romney's vice-presidential nominee. Those are his Mormon past and his short resume. Sure, he isn't a Mormon now, so Romney/Rubio wouldn't technically be an all-LDS ticket, but that doesn't help at all. All Rubio can do is point out that he's gone back and forth on his religious affiliation several times in his life, which is not something you want your running mate doing if the rap on you is that you're a flip-flopper.

And Rubio's short resume makes it unlikely Romney will pick him, not because guys with short resumes necessarily make worse presidents than guys with long resumes, but because the less time a politician has been subject to the scrutiny of the national press, the more surprises that politician is likely to produce during the campaign. If anything is clear about Romney, it is that he hates surprises, especially surprises that require him to improvise a complex strategy for escaping from an embarrassing situation.

If I were to guess, I'd say that if Romney is up in the polls come July, he'll pick either Senator Robert Portman of Ohio or Governor Robert McDonnell of Virginia as his running mate. There may be some people not called Robert who might be safe, predictable choices also. If Romney's down in the polls and needs to reset the debate, I'd expect him to pick a disaffected Democrat or a general or a celebrity CEO rather than a Republican senator of whatever ethnicity.

spacehabitats said...

The "Tea Party" as it exists today is a granfalloon created by the political insiders to divert, confuse and defuse any rational opposition. The original grassroots political movement of American citizens outraged over the intrusions and excesses of a big, centralized federal government has long since been morphed into a grotesque caricature of Bush-style neoconservativism. That Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum are considered "Tea Party" favorites means only that the mainstream media and their handlers have decided to anoint them as such.

beowulf said...

"Paul Ryan a jerk?
Hell, no. Just the opposite, probably much too normal, too nice a guy for the public scrutiny of high national office.
Or am I missing what [you] are alluding to?"

Oh yeah, huge jerk. Making his fellow House Republicans walk the plank by voting to abolish Medicare is going to cost dozens of them their jobs this fall wasn't cool. And then there's the whole Ayn Rand thing...
I am fairly certain that when Paul Ryan first decided to publicly share his admiration of Ayn Rand, he could not have imagined it would lead to him speed-walking to his SUV to avoid a young Catholic trying to give him a Bible and telling him to pay more attention to the Gospel of Luke.
http://swampland.time.com/2011/06/03/paul-ryans-ayn-rand-problem

beowulf said...

And 47-year-old Nixon had been Veep for eight years.

Don Draper's Nixon speech was pretty awesome.
Kennedy, Nouveau Riche, recent immigrant, who bought his way into Harvard. And now he's well bred? Great. Nixon is from nothing, a self made man, the Abe Lincoln of California who was Vice President of the United States 6 years after getting out of the Navy. Kennedy, I see a silver spoon. Nixon, I see myself."
http://www.unlikelywords.com/2009/08/17/everything-don-draper-said-season-1/

Anonymous said...

Rubio strikes me as Santoroum dumb, but perhaps the Murdoch types see that as a plus. Everything I've heard him write or say suggest he has the mind of a college Republican circa 2002.

Dahlia said...

"Somehow he mesmerizes enough to win anyway in Florida but I think it is extremely dangerous to take this national."

I've heard things, too, but are these malevolent whisper campaigns or sincere warnings? I have no idea.

I personally like Paul Ryan best, but am only pointing out that Florida's king making status makes knowledge about its demographics and racial politics extremely pertinent and important.

Given what those realities are, which the msm and other swpls pushing the Martin story seem largely ignorant of, it is a safe bet that Floridian Latinos back Zimmerman over Martin and that they will not appreciate Obama's actions and are put in flux which is rare. Intrade seems to agree.

Anonymous said...

Geoff,

Allen West is also dumb. Why don't we put forward smart people like Sailer or Frum or Buchanan. People who can't debate.

Anonymous said...

"our jealousy is epic. People who think that you are an autistic dolt for saying the things you do should realize that you are not. You are always claiming to be a cold and rational individual with low emotionality, but you are clearly capable of the same pettiness and jealousy of neurotypical people.

It hurts you that Marco Rubio has accomplished more in life at age 40 than you have at 50+. I am also laughing at your comment that he is not a "quick learner". Watch his speeches. He is very eloquent and logical in what he says, and clearly is of above average intelligence. He also graduated with honors with a law degree. What did you graduate at again? Oh yeah, an MBA from UCLA on finance and marketing. LOL..."

So you'd prefer Steve write about the "Reagan legacy" and give cliched speeches about how we must not withdraw from Iraq? Rubio has never said anything orginal. Steve is a much better thinker than Rubio-the man built his whole career on his ethnicity (but i guess that doesn't matter to you, you just worship people in power cause there in power).

Anonymous said...

I am suprised that readers of this blog seem to be big fans of Marco Rubio and/or Chris Christie or Paul Ryan. All three are essentially Bloomberg/Bush Republicans on the issues that matter (demography/future of west). Christie is wall streeter. Paul Ryan is a Randian who would rather balance a budget than keep France French and European nations Euro. Rubio is the token hispanic Bush and Rove demanded. His integrity/intelligence can be pretty well estimated by loo"king at his foreign policies views (don't leave the wars! I'm a cuban neo-con! God bless the free market and my daddy for bringing us here"). He's like a Republican Obama. He thinks the GOP needs to move left on immigration (apparently doing nothing is too much for him, Univision's breathing up his kneck).

Anonymous said...

dido to Mr. Anon's point.

Geoff-UK said...

When will Romney roll out his 2012 Election Slogan?

"Bienvenidos Estatdos Unidos!"

"Bienvenidos Estatdos Unidos!"

"Bienvenidos Estatdos Unidos!"

Anonymous said...

Former Orange County sheriff Mike Carona's family name was Carano, but it was transposed at Ellis Island. Carona won an upset race to be sheriff in 1998 at least partly because Latinos thought he was a Latino. Carona, of course, was later exposed as a corrupt crook. Karma!

Mondraggin said...

Did I get that right? Romney is Hispanic because his father was born in Mexico, Rubio is Hispanic, Obama, AfrAm., and Hillary female. All those running would be affirmative action eligible.

Jack said...

Bob McDonnell of VA is the best candidate. Executive experience, tall/attractive, conservative, Catholic, swing state. A plausible president in every way.

Anonymous said...

"Rubio concealed his forays into the Mormon religion"

Oh, come on, he was something like eight when his parents did something or other with the Mormons.

Rubio is a real political talent. Unsound on immigration, of course, but most politicians are.

Pincher Martin said...

"Rubio is a real political talent. Unsound on immigration, of course, but most politicians are."

How would you know Rubio's a "real political talent"? He's been on the national stage for less than two years, and he's never run a thing. What are you basing your judgment on? A couple of speeches? Beating Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meeks in the best election for a conservative to run in since 1994?

corvinus said...

"I realize the neocons and the Tea Partiers both like him, but still ... If he was the exact same guy, but just had an Italian rather than Spanish surname, I'd think he'd be getting talked up as a potential Lt. Governor, not as Vice-President heir apparent."

I agree. Marco Rubbio wouldn't be causing much of a buzz. I guess Italians aren't vibrant enough.

Anonymous said...

Romney, like McCain, is a LIBERAL. He will pick a woman for VP. He's so lame it will probably be Condoleeza Rice.

Romney SUCKS.