November 6, 2012

How Romney did relative to McCain in 2008

The Washington Post has a nice exit poll graphic showing how various demographic groups changed their vote from 2008 to 2012. 

Basically, Romney was up in most groups relative to McCain, just not enough. He was up 3 points from 55 to 58 in the huge white group, down 2 points among Hispanics. Most strikingly, he was down ten points among Asians, although that might be a sample size issue. "Other Race" trended 7 points for Republicans, although who knows what's going on there?

Men were up 4 points for the Republican candidate in 2012, women unchanged. Independents moved 5 points in the GOP's favor.

Married men were up 7 points for the GOP, but married women up only 2.

The Jewish vote went from 21% Republican to 30%.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Harvard vote is typically 2:1 for Democrats, same as Contra Costa County, CA.

Anonymous said...

So, if the GOP puts up a meaty conservative candidate in 2016 who has an anti-amnesty agenda, they might win.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations on electing a people more to your liking! Let us know how that works out for you. *shrugs*

Matthew said...

The takeaway point here is that the War On Women theme worked well. The GOP really needs to kick the abortion crazies out of the leadership. I'm not talking about people opposed to most abortions - I'm talking about those opposed to abortion in cases of rape or incest; about those opposed to stem cell reearch; and about those opposed to "emergency contraception."

They do the party no good.

Another point: Romney really should've found himself a decent female running mate, if one was available. But I guess if Sarah Palin was the best McCain could do in '08 then they might not exactly be thick on the ground.

Anonymous said...

Hey Steve, how about another post on how you're smarter than Nate Silver?

national 1-note Johnny said...

Butbutbut WHAT ABOUT LGBTQ

Homo nuptials are clearly the "keys to victory," not "The economy" or "Federal budget defict" or "Health care"

Anonymous said...

It appears the Jewish vote was 2% of the electorate in 2008 and 2% in 2012. Catholics went from 27% in 2008 to 25% in 2012. Protestant or other Christian went from 54% in 2008 to 53% in 2012. White Evangelicals remained steady at 26%.

Question: Whiskey is always telling us that Jews are disappearing due to intermarriage. If that is the case then why is the Jewish vote holding steady at 2% while Catholics and Protestants are falling, albeit slightly?

Silver said...

He was up 3 points from 55 to 58 in the huge white group, down 2 points among Hispanics.

Hard to see how you could do any better there while the culture not only permits being anti-white but actively encourages it while the right not only remains resolutely silent about it but actively discourages defense.


Tom Regan said...

If the GOP is to survive it has two choices.
1. Become RINOs and only a smidgin to the right of the Dems and hope to capitalize when the Dems screw up, or;
2. Push hard for devolution of most of Washington's powers and enshrine state powers. Then people can choose to be in predominantly white Republican towns/states or not.
In the second scenario, watch how fast the Jews, Asians, gays and single white women abandon the Democrats.

jody said...

women unchanged.

so much for the media narrative that the "conservative war on women" will cost the republicans dearly.

jody said...

women unchanged.

so much for the media narrative that the "conservative war on women" will cost the republicans dearly.

jody said...

"The takeaway point here is that the War On Women theme worked well."

wait, doesn't the data show the opposite effect? he should have lost women voters, especially as the ranks of the single women and single mothers grows.

Whiskey said...

More turnout for unmarried White women. Sandra Flukes, in other words. Worked well. There was a reason Obama was on the View, etc. Greater turnout, holding women steady, equals Obama victory.

I don't see where a Republican gets more votes? Hispanics? Asians? Gays? Jews? Even if every Jew voted for Romney, he still would have lost.

White women put Obama over the top AGAIN. They HATE HATE HATE the idea of White interests (because too many White guys are beta males).

Anonymous said...

I tend to agree with Matthew. I think what this graphic shows is that the Republicans have a serious problem with their primary system. Almost all demographic groups moved Republican, but not enough. They just needed a better candidate. Any non-weirdo vs. Obama would have put a new party in the White House.

Noah172 said...

I'm very worried about that 30 percent Jewish figure. It means that the party elites will conclude that their strategy of "What Bibi wants, Bibi gets" is working, and they will keep pushing it.

Even more scary is that the Democrats will be worried about their decline among Jews and become (even) more hawkish Zionist.

Both parties are run by traitors.

Bob Arctor said...

Matthew doesn't know what he's talking about. There's been countless polls over the last thirty years done on abortion and all of them consistently show no gender differential whatsoever. The "gender gap" is entirely due to differences in opinions on fiscal issues, not social ones. Matthew's hypothetical Libertarianized GOP would, ironically, almost certainly end up just driving many relatively lower income GOP women to the Democrats.

I suppose next we'll hear about how the GOP just needs to staunchly support amnesty to get 65% of the Hispanic vote, or something.

Paleo Pals Consulting Strategies LLP said...

Yes GOP, you all ought to heed Noah172's fresh new take on the reality of the situation. He spotted this back during the Truman Administration and has been right every year. e.g. Look at how Nixon got wiped out in '72

DPG said...

Asians voting Democrat continue to befuddle me. I live in NYC and my girlfriend is Asian, so I hang out with a lot of them. My gf doesn't have any friends who are Democrats. I'm literally the first Republican who's discussed politics with her on an extended basis. (Aside: I think I'm bringing her around to the view that Asians should be conservative.)

As she read facebook last night, her conclusion were that most of her Asians enjoyed sticking it to the white rich guy.

It's not about policies; it's about the fact that Asians still feel non-white. (Even though they now make more money than whites, on average.)

Anonymous said...

"The Jewish vote went from 21% Republican to 30%."

Only over Wall Street and Israel.
Jews are one group that totally wins whichever side wins. Wall Street tumble sends message to Obama not to mess with Wall Street even though it gave more to Romney. Obama will be a good boy.

Since dems are such shills to the superrich--no less than the goppers--, dems need to concoct wedge culture war issues like 'gay marriage' to win the support of bulk of swplers who aren't rich. It's their version of 'school prayer'.
But the irony is 'gay marriage' is the pet invention of the super privileged, especially Jews.

bleach said...

DPG:
"It's not about policies; it's about the fact that Asians still feel non-white. (Even though they now make more money than whites, on average.)"

Um. They are non-white. They will never be white. You have a non-white girlfriend whose people will always resent or even hate you for being white. Have fun with that.




Anonymous said...

I don't see where a Republican gets more votes? Hispanics? Asians? Gays? Jews? Even if every Jew voted for Romney, he still would have lost.

White women put Obama over the top AGAIN. They HATE HATE HATE the idea of White interests (because too many White guys are beta males).


You gotta love whiskey's non stop effort to defend the Jews and throw white women under bus. Now, he essentially claims that Jews have no influence in the election because even if they would have voted 100% Romney, Romney would still have lost. So they can't be blamed even though they voted 70% for Obama. It's all those white women.

As for where are we going to get the extra votes, here is a suggestion. Increase the white vote by 4 to 5 percent. How do you do that. First, stop backing Wall Street demands for free trade over all. Second, stop fighting every little mideast war on Israel's behalf. As you pointed out even if we got 100% of the Jewish vote, we'd still lose. So why expend political capital to please the Jews when their votes are not necessary?

Dutch Boy said...

It is all quite simple: the GOP has lost the Northern working class vote without which it cannot win a national election. The Republitards will continue to lose that vote as long as they push their brand of bastardized libertarian economic policy.

Anonymous said...

I think voter turnout was low this election. I personally chose not to vote. That's one white vote the R candidate did not get.

Anonymous said...

I think voter turnout was low this election. I personally chose not to vote. That's one white vote the R candidate did not get.


The Stupid Party celebrating it's own stupidity.

Matthew said...

"Matthew doesn't know what he's talking about. There's been countless polls over the last thirty years done on abortion..."

OK, genius - so then why did Todd Akin lose in Missouri? Why was his goose cooked immediately after the "legitimate rape" comments got out, but not before?

Abortion itself isn't the big issue. But not allowing for emergency contraception, or exceptions in cases of rape will never fly with vast numbers of women. You will never ban abortions in these cases, so why take a "principled" view which does nothing but cost you votes and make you look extreme?