December 7, 2012

2012: The Sports Fan Gap

Democratic strategist Ruy Teixeira gives his analysis of the Edison Exit poll numbers. Here's an excerpt on the Slippery Six states that slipped through Romney's fingers, especially Ohio:
Change in minority share of
voters, 2008-2012 
Iowa -2
Michigan 5
Minnesota 3
Ohio 4
Pennsylvania 3
Wisconsin 3 
President Obama carried all six of these states. Of the six, the most hotly contested  and the state with the narrowest margin was Ohio, where President Obama eked out a 3-point victory (51 percent to 48 percent) thanks to two key factors. One was the minority vote: People of color increased their share of voters by 4 percentage points in Ohio, which was entirely due to an increase in black voters, who gave the president 96 percent of their vote.  
The other factor was white working-class voters, a weak group for President Obama in the state during the 2008 election. In that election, Sen. McCain carried these voters by 10 points. The Romney campaign anticipated a large expansion of the Republican margin among these voters, but it was not to be. Gov. Romney’s 14-point margin (56 percent to 42 percent) was an improvement over Sen. McCain’s numbers but proved too modest a gain for his purposes. Indeed, Gov. Romney actually improved more among white college graduates, expanding Sen. McCain’s 1-point margin to a very strong 18-point advantage (58 percent to 40 percent). If Gov. Romney had improved that much among white working-class voters, he would have easily taken the state and its 18 electoral votes.

I think it's pretty weird that Obama won the Which One Is the Regular Guy You'd Wanna Have a Beer With popularity contest. I mean if I had a beer with him, I'd probably steer the subject to what he thinks of the latest lit fic he's read. 

Besides not drinking beer, Romney allowed a major Sports Fan Gap to emerge. Romney likes outdoor activities, but he never showed much evidence that he was a passionate spectator sports fan, while Obama's army of paid Tweeters were always churning out the Commander in Chief's views on how to set up a college football national championship playoff and other pressing topics.

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Indeed, Gov. Romney actually improved more among white college graduates, expanding Sen. McCain’s 1-point margin to a very strong 18-point advantage (58 percent to 40 percent).

Uhh, talkin' big picture here, uhh, but that's actually some pretty darned good news.

[I mean, since I'm not allowed to say jack shit about pure-blood Castilians and the true nature of the Spanish Civil War, I can make that observation, right?!?]

Jefferson said...

Obama won in a landslide some of the very liberal Northern states where there are very few Hispanics and African Americans like Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Whites in states like Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine vote more like Western Europeans, than they do like White Americans, meaning they vote against their own interests when they vote for left wing politicians who want to change the racial demographics of the country.

Inkraven said...

@Jefferson - this is probably because they largely don't have to live near the consequences of their voting actions. It's hard to see how minorities behaving badly affect you when there aren't any in your neighborhood, or any of your friends' neighborhoods.

Anonymous said...

Obama watches sportcenter every day. That is kind of a waste of time for a president, but he isn't a fake sports fan.

DPG said...

The sports angle is interesting, Steve. Obama struggled with white guys despite being a sports fan. However, I do think that there were white guys who abstained from voting for Romney because he's the type of guy who shuts down the manufacturing plants where their Dads worked while they were growing up. A little cultural solidarity in the form of sports might have helped those guys forget about the class difference.

Kerrick said...

I think Obama managed to capitalize on generations of Americans being taught that businessmen=evil, white businessmen= so doubleplusungood, so Romney as a top 1% WM Businessman, a conservative, and one who had a large family at that, is the arch nemesis of all which is deemed proper by the elites.

Which just goes to show how screwed up the country's compass has gotten...

countenance said...

I think it's pretty weird that Obama won the Which One Is the Regular Guy You'd Wanna Have a Beer With popularity contest. I mean if I had a beer with him, I'd probably steer the subject to what he thinks of the latest lit fic he's read.

That barometer is overrated. 99.99999% of people will never have a beer or any beverage with any President or Presidential candidate. Therefore, it doesn't make sense to base your vote on an almost impossible hypothetical.

DCThrowback said...

One thing Obama doesn't fake is his general interest in sports. He's a White Sox fan and knows enough to be dangerous when talking about football. Obviously his golf and hoops exploits are well known (and mocked, but still). Romney...oh, Mitt. Who knows what that guy liked or is in to (that wasn't dictated to him by some focus group or advisor). At least Kerry got photographed para-surfing.

Anonymous said...

"I think it's pretty weird that Obama won the Which One Is the Regular Guy You'd Wanna Have a Beer With popularity contest."

He didn't. It's just that Romney the Mormon don't drink no beer at all.

Beagle Juice said...

Was Romney really the "Great White Hope"? If hedge fund manager groveling to Israel is the best "White America" can do, then maybe we better just throw in the towel.

Anonymous said...

"Whites in states like Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine vote more like Western Europeans, than they do like White Americans, meaning they vote against their own interests when they vote for left wing politicians who want to change the racial demographics of the country."

You assume that whites in Arkansas and Vermont have common interests. What is your evidence for that?

Anonymous said...

Being a sports fan does make men from all different backgrounds identify with Obama. though Paul Ryan was a big Packers fan and Wisconsin voted for a bears fan.

Romney did very well among whites in Ohio. the ones that showed up, that is.

Assistant Village Idiot said...

I agree with Kerrick, but I wouldn't throw out that sports idea. We are talking about some 10-20% of white guys who might be moved a few ticks by some camaraderie.

Jefferson and Inkraven are spot on. I'm from NH, and the black people that liberals know are either in their precise line of work, or on TV. What they have is the confidence that Smart People know what's best to fix all those problems.

Anonymous said...

[I mean, since I'm not allowed to say jack shit about pure-blood Castilians and the true nature of the Spanish Civil War, I can make that observation, right?!?]

What is the true nature of the Spanish Civil War? I know very little of its history.

--Genuinely interested

Anonymous said...

"Being a sports fan does make men from all different backgrounds identify with Obama"

the only sport he follows seems to be basketball. he has made a fool of himself in pretending to know anything about baseball.

Anonymous said...

obama does fake his interest in sports he called comiskey park cominskey park (trying to make it sound more scotch-irish) and asked his favorite player he totally balked and could not name any. If he watches espn it is to bake in the repeated dunk higlights etc and nothing of the true sportsmenship that occurs. He wrote in Syracuse as Sycacuse in tbe NCAA bracket a couple of years back. No classical western civilization knowledge or recent Chicago sports knowledge to be had by him. And he throws like a girl which you would think would be most damning in the black community.

a Newsreader said...

That college football national championship idea sure is popular, but it is still stupid. Obama does have that appeal.

Whiskey said...

Romney's problem is a lifetime in business left him without that "swagger" that Reagan and GWB had.

GWB, turned out White male voters by the truckload. It was what he had. And it was mostly fake: a scion of the Ivy League, Harvard Business School, Yale, Boolah-Boolah, and all that. But, he had the Texas accent down, the swagger, the good old boy persona. Which unfortunately counts for a lot.

It doesn't matter NOW. You won't get Obama out of there any more than Morsi will be anything but another Big Man Pharoah. Obama will run his wife, or Valerie Jarrett, or something like that. Unless the Supremes just declare the amendment limiting Presidents to two terms invalid. Which they'd surely like to do.

Anonymous said...

Romney gave lower-class white ZERO reason to show up and vote for him. In favor of bailing out Goldman Sachs, against bailing out Auto workers and against Unions in general. Also, in favor of out-sourcing, Free-trade, massive immigration and only muttered a few insincere words about Illegal immigration. Affirmative action? Mitt never heard of it. Social issues? Sorry. And his running mate's big selling point was cutting Medicare and Social Security.

Just a variation on McCain: "Invade the world, invite the world, and cut social security".

Anonymous said...

Anybody who refers to Penn State as the Nittally Lions is a fake sports fan.

Anonymous said...

What is the true nature of the Spanish Civil War? I know very little of its history.

Komment Kontrol won't let me talk about it.

Ever.

I guess Mr Unz has limits to his largesse.

Anonymous said...

Well, I guess the dumb white men never heard Rev Wright God dam white America speeches.

Anonymous said...

Well, both supported outsourcing and the other was more in favor of immirgation also from black Africian countries. So, what so great about Obama. As for the bailouts some subcontractors like Delphi Motors lost their pensions while GM kept theres. Romeny was right they needed to reorganized under Chapter 11. Under Obama GM is still sending their workforce to Mexico and China.

Anonymous said...

Maine (#1), New Hampshire (#5) and Vermont (#3) are all in the top 5 states measuring the increase in the percentage of minorities between the 2000 and 2010 Census.

Church groups in Maine are importing Somalis, and the same thing is happening in Vermont, according to my nephew going to college in Burlington. New Hampshire, specifically the border cities of Nashua and Salem, is absorbing an Hispanic overflow from the Lowell and Lawrence, two Latino/Asian shyteholes in Massachusetts.

That said, the white people in Portland, ME make Berkeley look like Dallas. Their mayor, an honorary position, was a black lesbian a couple years ago.

ben tillman said...

You assume that whites in Arkansas and Vermont have common interests. What is your evidence for that?

Right there in your own words! If they're all White, they have common interests. That's the point of the category: to encompass people with common interests!

Jack said...

Assistant Village Idiot - what the hell happened in New Hampshire to change that state so badly?

Anonymous said...

"Komment Kontrol won't let me talk about it."

I guess you could write a big long post on YOUR OWN BLOG and link to it, but then you wouldn't get to whine about no one reading it.

Better to be a parasite on Steve's blog (like Whiskey).

Anonymous said...

I guess you could write a big long post on YOUR OWN BLOG and link to it, but then you wouldn't get to whine about no one reading it. Better to be a parasite on Steve's blog (like Whiskey).

Wow, it kinda hurts my feelings that Komment Kontrol would approve an attack like that.

Oh well.

Live and learn.

Anonymous said...

Lewiston Maine home to a lot of Black Africns.

Anonymous said...

"Komment Kontrol won't let me talk about it.

Ever.

I guess Mr Unz has limits to his largesse."

Any reason why it is this issue in particular that Unz wouldn't want discussed?

Anonymous said...

Mittens needed to state that he supported automation which eliminates jobs but keeps them in the US, machnists need to run computers and robots. Two, using the 47 percent hurt him since his campaign was courting hispanics which were more apart of the 47 percent than whites but the elite Republicans think this way.