October 8, 2013

Irresponsible speculation on implausible diplomatic revolutions

Awhile ago, I speculated irresponsibly about the highly unlikely possibility of Obama going full Hitler-Stalin Pact and dumping Israel in favor of Iran. Or, to frame the possibility in less inflammatory terms, there always exists a tiny potential for a diplomatic revolution akin to the mid-1970s reversal in which the Soviets flipped Ethiopia and the U.S. then picked up Ethiopia's enemy, formerly Soviet-backed Somalia. 

Today, I'm going to free associate about whom Israel might sign up as its new allies in the implausible eventuality it ever loses the global hyperpower as its ally. Presumably, the government of Israel maintains contingency plans for all such possibilities, so let's guess at what they might be.

If the American president were to take adamant steps against Israeli occupation of the West Bank, I'm sure the top priority for the Israeli government would be to help its friends in America place a more satisfactory individual in the White House, rather as George H.W. Bush's attempt to penalize Israel financially if it continued to support West Bank settling was followed by the elder Bush having the opportunity to spend more time with his family.

But, if that were to fail, what would be next on the diplomatic front?

Israel's more aggressive policies get little support in the United Nations from anybody other than the United States and a few random countries, especially Pacific microstates such as Palau and Nauru. Unfortunately, scraping all the guano off Nauru has lowered its elevation, thus making it more vulnerable to disappearing beneath the waves in case of global warming, which would cost Israel a reliable vote in the General Assembly.

Presumably, there are other countries whose General Assembly votes could be acquired, for whatever that's worth (mostly, I presume, as flanking for a major power's votes). Having the whole world against you, like the late Rhodesia, gets to be a drag.

But having a big power on your side is key. So, which one would be next for Israel?

China, of course, is first on most people's minds. Yet, I'm just not seeing it. China's foreign policy strategy appears to be to have its way with resource-rich African countries, many of which have large fractions of Muslims. Mineowners generally aren't popular with the masses, especially not foreign ones. So, if you are Beijing, why poke your finger in the Israel-Palestine hornet's nest when things are going smoothly at present for you in part-Muslim Africa? For China to align with Israel could stir up populist resentment in African countries.

Even though India is something like 13% Muslim, it might be a possible ally for Israel, especially if the Hindu nationalist BJP opposition party comes to power.

The most plausible road to Israel obtaining a Security Council veto vote if it lost its American one is through Moscow. There are hundreds of thousands of Russians in Israel, many of them in important positions. There are hundreds of thousands of Jews in Russia, many of them prosperous. Further, Russia, which always worries about its path to ice-free oceans, has its only Mediterranean naval base in Syria, and it may lose that. 

Putin and Netanyahu are not all that far apart ideologically. Putin is always looking for ways for Russia to successfully resist America's corrosive soft power and recommendations, and Israel is a worthy role model in that regard. Israel is the world champ at paying no attention to the American Establishment's thinking (such as it is) on domestic questions like population policy, undocumented workers, border fences, and so forth.

37 comments:

ironrailsironweights said...

Israel already has a close relationship with India. Many young Israelis travel to India after graduating from college, sort of a rite of passage.

I get the impression that while most Islamic countries vouch their undying support for the Palestinian people in their struggle against the Zionist occupiers, the support is usually a mile wide and an inch deep. For the most part they consider the Palestinians a bunch of whining malcontents.

Peter

Anonymous said...

Hey Steve, do you know who is the head of Russia's foreign intelligence (formerly know as KGB) and one of the favorites to suceed Putin???

Yes, is a tribesman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Fradkov

anony-mouse said...

Taiwan has the 'whole world against it'

It is recognized as an independent country by practically nobody (as opposed to the 128 that recognize Israel).

It is a member of zero international organizations which require standing as an independent country for membership.

Its Olympic team goes under the name 'Chinese Taipei'.

Its primary enemy, which claims 100% of its territory is the 2nd most powerful nation. The most powerful nation, which is the guarantor of Taiwan's independence, recognizes its primary enemy as the lawful government of Taiwan.

And yet Taiwan has been independent for almost as long as Israel has.

countenance said...

I think you're doing a lot of speculating for nothing. It's all based on the premise that somehow Obama is going to dump Israel. The only reason one would think that Obama would even entertain doing that is if you think that somehow Obama secretly has it out for Israel, and the only people who think that are neo-conservative and lamestream conservative Republicans.

Anonymous said...

"Israel is the world champ at paying no attention to the American Establishment's thinking (such as it is) on domestic questions like population policy, undocumented workers, border fences, and so forth."

But then, why should it when the American Establishment does NOT pressure Israel on those issues?
If anything, Israelis are with the liberal Jews in America in pushing a double standard whereby Western nations must be Liberal and open borders while Israel is allowed and even encouraged to be nationalist and closed-border.
Actually, Netanhayu and American Jews are on the same page: nationalism and ethno-self-interest for Jews, anti-nationalism and open-borders for white majority nations.

Obama is not moving on Iran of his own accord. Liberal Zionists are using him to test the waters with Iran. Stick and carrot. Use Netanhayu and neocons for the stick approach, use Obama for the carrot approach. Of course, Obama gets the blame from conservatives since he's the 'front man', but he can't make his own decisions. He knows who his masters are.

Jews wanna look for a possible deal with Iran, all the while ensuring that most Americans will champion Israel and hate Iran. So, they use Netanhayu and neocons to keep reminding us that Iran is the ENEMY, all the while using Obama to work behind the curtains to see if Iran can be tamed into a tolerable power.

Anonymous said...

Putin on the Shitz

rec1man said...

During the previous BJP regime, Ariel Sharon got a red carpet welcome in India

Thanks to the high level of Israeli weapons being imported by India, even the muslim loving Congress has kept quiet about the Palestinians

The next Indian regime is likely to be led by Narendra Modi of BJP, who is openly anti-muslim and presided over the post-Godhra anti-muslim reprisals in Gujurat

Even during the time of Nehru and Indira Gandhi, despite the pro-palestinian noises, there was a deep relationship with Mossad and Israeli weapons supply

Anonymous said...

"Today, I'm going to free associate about whom Israel might sign up as its new allies in the implausible eventuality it ever loses the global hyperpower as its ally."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxkQl759ktE

ATBOTL said...

The more likely scenario is a long term Russian effort to recolonize former Soviet Republics(if you read between the lines Putin clearly favors this, it's part of reason the doesn't want to cut Muslim areas loose like some Russian nationalists do) combined with a broad alliance with anyone to the South of Russia who is in conflict with fundamentalist Sunni Muslims.

Look for a Russia/Iran/Lebanon/Syria/Armenia/India/Georgia/Kurdish/Greek/Serbian/Bulgarian/Arab Christian/Thai/Burmese/Chinese/give or take some alliance against the Arabian monarchies, Pakistan and Turkey. The war in Syria is galvanizing this.

Look for Sunni Muslims to be removed from large areas as others get sick of them and lose fear of the USA/EU acting as politically correctness pro-Sunni fundamentalist protectors.

In the long term, it's hard to believe that incompetent and very annoying Muslims, who no one really likes, will retain control over so such a large area.

Turkey is very vulnerable to ceasing to exist as a culture/nation/civilization. They aren't really Turks(ie Mongols), Islam is holding them back and many, if not most people in Turkey have some other ethnic identity, at least beneath the surface: Kurds, Greeks, Circasians, Assyrians, Armenians, descendants of European slaves etc.

Look for Pakistan to get nuked by someone at some point. No one will shed a tear for them.

I'm looking at the long term view here.

Evil Sandmich said...

Look for Sunni Muslims to be removed from large areas as others get sick of them and lose fear of the USA/EU acting as politically correctness pro-Sunni fundamentalist protectors.

Russia always had a sweet spot for the Arabs, but yes, generally only secular governments who would make it their business to make sure than no Chechen suicide bombers made their way up north from the Arab paramilitary camps.

As far as this Iran thing goes, it was Derb who said that if he was Iranian he would want democracy, sure, but nukes as well. Even the most unbalanced theocrat would fear semi-failed state Pakistan and their nukes. How to get your own nuke program off the ground without drawing the ire of your insane neighbor? Tell him that you're getting them to use, um, on someone else. Yeah, that's the ticket!

Whiskey said...

Israel is most likely to see either Samantha Powers fantasy of invading Israel to destroy it and install Ha as as part of R2P or total American withdrawal. In the face of the latter, alliance between France and Germany in trade for dirt cheap gas ouof Israels offshore oil fields is the deal.

Russia wants Israel destroyed to keep its 80% !!! market share of Euro gas usage.

Steve I am amazed a guy so gifted in observations otherwise misses this.

How will Russia pay any bills with Israeli gas on the market?e

Whiskey said...

Israel already has a defacto, very quiet alliance with Saudi and other Gulf states all terrified of Iran and Russia. It is all about oil. How much is pumped out of Arabia. What the global price is set at. What else does Russia and Iran have to pay its thug army? You don't think they want to end up like the Soviets do you? Done cause they could not pay their soldiers or secret police?

Europe needs cheap gas. Israel a military protector. There is a deal there. One that trumps the cultural and genetic affinity of Russia and Israel.

Erdogan is pursuing a Kurdish deal, autonomy inside Turkey in exchange for votes over changing the Constituion so he can do a reverse Putin, and support for Kurds in Iraq and Syria. Turkey is moving into northern Iraq power vacuum.

SFG said...

I could see them cutting a deal with Russia. It's just too easy for China to cut deals with Muslim countries which hate America as a counterweight to the USA's power. Russia, on the other hand, well, they don't like the USA, but they don't like Muslims either.

Putin's done a fairly clever job of taking down the Jewish oligarchs without annoying the Western Jewish media, so I'm sure he's calculating as much as he can. If the Muslims hate his guts anyway, he could use some money and brains.

Matra said...

Israel already has a close relationship with India. Many young Israelis travel to India after graduating from college, sort of a rite of passage.

And they are not exactly helping Israel's reputation.

The problem with Israeli travelers

Ambassadors of bad will

ironrailsironweights said...

Even the most unbalanced theocrat would fear semi-failed state Pakistan and their nukes

Pakistan is the only nuclear state whose nuclear weapons are entirely under military control and can be used without a "go order" from the civil head of state.

Peter

Anonymous said...

I get the impression that while most Islamic countries vouch their undying support for the Palestinian people in their struggle against the Zionist occupiers, the support is usually a mile wide and an inch deep. For the most part they consider the Palestinians a bunch of whining malcontents.

Palestine is the Muslim world's version of Israel.

CJ said...

Wow, ATBOTL is really an optimist. I want a shot of whatever he's drinking.

agnostic said...

Diplomatic make-up sex between Slavs and Jews... sounds gross, but it could happen.

Unlike all other possible partners, the Russians have had a longer history of living and working with Jews. They may have been located more in the Pale of Settlement, but they still interacted with Russians more over history than with Indians, Chinese, Italians, Turks, or whoever else.

Just checked the timing of pogroms over recent history, and there seems to be a roughly 110-year cycle. Peak levels of pogroms circa 1650, 1770, and 1880. There should have been another peak around 1990 -- perhaps the collapse of the Soviet Union gave Slavs something bigger to worry about, not to mention that Jews now had the option to fly the coop to Israel.

At any rate, the US dumping Israel would still be at least a decade away. By that time, anti-Jewish feelings among Slavs would be at a relative low point, and falling. The Russian leaders wouldn't have to worry about rubbing their masses the wrong way by partnering with Israel until later in the century.

Foreign Expert said...

Hey! Don't badmouth Palau. The USA Capitol Building is based on one in Palau: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Capitol,_Melekeok,_Palau.jpg

Mountain Maven said...

Steve you and your readers are treading close to the Walt-Mersheimer 3rd rail of foreign relations. Cost Walt his a@@. The US will never cut ties with Israel. We are the least antisemite country.

I however wish we would take our toys and go home.

Anonymous said...

Actually, Israel has lots of allies or indirect allies.

After the fall of USSR, the third world came to rely on US and EU for funds, and that meant dropping the stuff about 'Zionism is racism'.

Europeans may be critical of some Israeli policies, but the main religion among Euros is Holocaust faith, and that means they can never be too harsh on Israel. In fact, Europeans are on the bandwagon of supporting sanctions against Iran while saying nothing about nukes in Israel.
Also, Jewish elites have lots of power in France and UK. And Eastern European nations like Poland and others that seek business ties with US and EU know they must be pro-Jewish and pro-Zionist or no dessert.

As for Asia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, and etc, know they rely on the US, and they know they better not mess with Jews for Jews control the US and will undermine good relations between US and Asian nations that denounce Jews. China is politically more independent, but economically, it relies on trade with US. It buys raw materials from Africa, but it must sell to US and EU. So, China knows not to mess with Jewish power.

Since US and Israel are joined at the hip, all nations that rely on the US must follow the dictates of global Jewish policy. And if you do business with EU and US, you are indirectly doing business with Israel whose economy is integrated fully with the West.

Even if many nations don't openly support or praise Israel, they must not criticize Israel or say much about Jewish power.

Anonymous said...

>> If anything, Israelis are with the liberal Jews in America in pushing a double standard whereby

please, one valid Hebrew-language citation which supports this claim?

Steve Sailer said...

"Putin's done a fairly clever job of taking down the Jewish oligarchs without annoying the Western Jewish media, so I'm sure he's calculating as much as he can."

Yes, Putin's Affirmative Action in Corruption campaign has been pretty successful at making Russia's oligarchs look more like Russia, without setting off vicious backlashes within Russia or in the America.

Simon in London said...

Russia, an imperial power like the USA, has lots of Muslim countries in its near abroad and occupied territories, eg Chechnya, and could do without the headache of alliance with Israel, unless perhaps it were accompanied by alliance with much-more-useful Turkey (Turkey is a pretty major nation that is still Israel-allied). I don't think having similar national-preservation ideologies is enough of a link; Israel has little to offer Russia.

India, unlike Russia, is not an imperial power, and Israel can actually offer India useful stuff like nuclear tech. With both nations threatened by Islam they look like much more natural allies. The dominant ideology among the Indian elite still seems to be anti-white third world socialism, but a Hindu nationalist Indian leadership would have a natural ally in Israel.

But the only way Israel would lose US support is if a far-left third-worldist government comes to power in the USA. This could happen eventually as the US browns (a browning supported by the US' pro-Israel Jewish elites!), but likely many decades away and it's hard to tell what the world might look like then or what the shake-out might be. Eg the EU is currently anti-Israel but if the US splits with Israel a future nationalist France might decide to pick up Israel as an anti-US ally, presumably despite the wishes of French Muslims. Or France might be dominated by an Islam-socialist axis and ally with an anti-Israel US.

Simon in London said...

anon:
"Netanhayu and American Jews are on the same page: nationalism and ethno-self-interest for Jews, anti-nationalism and open-borders for white majority nations. "

I don't think Netanyahu has ever said any such thing, or taken any stance on US immigration policy. IME the Israeli Right isn't nearly as hypocritical as the US Jewish elite (both left wing and neocon).

Greg said...

If Israel loses American support it also loses American shackles and would be free to be infinitely more militarily aggressive and would probably end up conquering large areas of the Middle East, including oil producing regions. This is the major factor that people are forgetting - American doesn't just support, but massively restrains Israel. It's a great deal for Israel because American support means so much, but if that was withdrawn, everything changes.

If Israel came to control large parts of the ME oil capacity, then China and Russia - and everyone else - would simply trade with Israel. Do you think China cares who they trade with as long as they get their oil? Once ideological elements are eliminated from the equation - and only America seriously cares about them - practical considerations will rule. And with the likelihood that American support would be withdrawn only with the Third-Worldization of American, a not impossible propect, American's ability or even inclination to prevent Israel from taking over oil producing regions would not be a serious stumbling block.

Anonymous said...

The Israelis are very much thinking about switching to China as their patron: that's why Netanyahu is learning Chinese (not terribly well, judging by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huL97oKv3Go), and why Dry Bones has an outreach to China (http://drybonesproject.com/print.html). They can see the writing on the wall, and they want to suck up to the coming power.

Too bad that coming power has little or no use for the Israelis, and no amount of invocation of the Kaifeng Jews is going to change that.

Anonymous said...

Netanyahu is learning Chinese (not well, judging from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huL97oKv3Go), and Dry Bones has an outreach to China (http://drybonesproject.com/print.html), so it's kind of obvious that the Israelis are thinking about replacing America with China.

Too bad for the Israelis that, to the Chinese, the Jews are this weird group of Westerners who aren't terribly significant (14 million of them worldwide...there are 5 times as many Hakka!), and no amount of invocation of the Kaifeng Jews (who are about as significant to China as the Old Believers in Alaska are to the US..ie, not at all) is going to change that.

Anonymous Gwailu Goy

Anonymous said...

Steve Sailer is
pretty good at Sci-fi.

Anonymous said...

"I don't think Netanyahu has ever said any such thing, or taken any stance on US immigration policy. IME the Israeli Right isn't nearly as hypocritical as the US Jewish elite (both left wing and neocon)."

He didn't say it but he sure is bosom buddies with the likes of Abe Foxman.

Whom do you think Netanhayu prefers to run the US? Hillary Clinton or Pat Buchanan?

Whom do you think Netanhayu prefers as pundit? Thomas Friedman or Jared Taylor?

Anonymous said...

"Yes, Putin's Affirmative Action in Corruption campaign has been pretty successful at making Russia's oligarchs look more like Russia, without setting off vicious backlashes within Russia or in the America."

But there is the backdoorlash of homo hysteria and WWG.

Anonymous said...

>> If anything, Israelis are with the liberal Jews in America in pushing a double standard whereby<<

"please, one valid Hebrew-language citation which supports this claim?"

You really don't get it. It's like the meaning of books comes from reading in between the lines.
Of course, NO ONE will blatantly say what is going on.

But just look at the behavior, the actions, and overall policy. Despite some token criticism, Liberal Zionists are hardly tough critics of Israel. The likes of Alan Dershowitz and David Sirota, though flaming Liberals in the US, turn into Pat Buchanans on the issue of Israel.
Even Liberal Zionists who aren't as brazen as the likes of Elliott Abrams tend to be very muted in their criticism of Israel and tend to blame the GOP and wingnuts for the inability for any resolution.

Look, American conservatives don't say they are for white interests, but they are essentially far more into white issues and interests than American liberals.

You just have to pick up the signals. And Jews are not stupid to give the game away.

It's like in sports, there are secret plans and signals. A catcher makes hand signals only for the pitcher to see. It's not for everyone, but such signals are crucial. Jews know the signals, and you can sense it if you learn to tune in.

Same with business news. So much the really good stuff is never reported.

IHTG said...

Whom do you think Netanhayu prefers as pundit? Thomas Friedman or Jared Taylor?

You might be surprised.

Simon in London said...

>> Anonymous said...
"I don't think Netanyahu has ever said any such thing, or taken any stance on US immigration policy. IME the Israeli Right isn't nearly as hypocritical as the US Jewish elite (both left wing and neocon)."

He didn't say it but he sure is bosom buddies with the likes of Abe Foxman.

Whom do you think Netanhayu prefers to run the US? Hillary Clinton or Pat Buchanan?

Whom do you think Netanhayu prefers as pundit? Thomas Friedman or Jared Taylor? <<

Netanyahu is a Jewish-Israeli ethnoationalist and favours whoever and whatever will best advance Israeli interests. Abe Foxman is a useful ally, whereas Pat Buchanan makes unfriendly noises, so obviously he prefers the former as long as Abe is useful.
But Netanyahu has no philosophical objection to Buchanan favouring American interests over Israeli interests, it's purely pragmatic. Heck I doubt he had any philosophical objection to Ahmahjinedad in Iran, while being ready and willing to nuke Iran into the stone age. Netanyahu straightforwardly favours his own people over foreigners, which I respect and find easy to deal with. Abe Foxman, OTOH, not so much.

Anonymous said...

Steve,

Thank you for pointing this out. Israel's quiet drift into Russia's orbit (although it's well behind Cyprus, Greece, Serbia and Bulgaria aka the old Byzantine Empire in that respect) is the most underreported diplomatic story.

Even non-neocons like David P. Goldman aka Spengler don't really want to see it, after daring to troll his erstwhile comrades with Asia Times columns titled "Putin for President". Goldman thinks the Moscow-Israel relationship is all about weapons and Iran horsetrading. In the short run it has been, but in the medium term there's the gas field in Leviathian that Gazprom has bough a stake in (incidentally infuritating the Houston-based Russophobe fanatic Craig Pirrong, who also fears Germany sliding into Russia's orbit after the German voters finally move on from Merkel).

In the long term, it's about nothing less than the Russian Empire reclaiming the Jewish brainpower it lost to progroms and Communism. As is the coming wave of Greek, Spanish and other European immigration to Russia -- all the 'Russia is doomed demographically' stuff is based on projections made ten years ago that no longer match Russia's modest economic growth reality and never allow for Moscow to cleverly import Spaniards rather than Tadjiks.

In other words, the neocons with their fresh memories of the Cold War are passing, and the younger generation of Israelis (if not Jewish Americans) simply can't see Moscow as the Eternal Evil Empire the way their forebears did, anymore than Jews can be safely kept on the Democratic plantation forever.

More than likely Jews will become indifferent or even vaguely Russophilic before they become a genuinely large swing bloc, though the Orthodox Jews are swinging GOP in New York/New Jersey...

And if you all haven't noticed, there's been an avalanche of desperate attempts on Twitter, both among eternal Cold Warriors and Obamabots to link the American and global libertarian Right to Putin. There are two entire Twitter accounts devoted to this theme:

@stopagitprop and @tsnowbird5000

I rather suspect the increasing prominence of Tula Works ammo at Wal Marts across the US will soon be portrayed by Homeland Security trolls online as a diabolical Putinist plot to arm America's "bitter clingers" for insurrection against Washington. Hell, they're already accusing the top 1,000th visited site in the U.S. ZeroHedge of being a Kremlin agitprop site just because it's run by a Bulgarian. Why not try for a 'the Manosphere, neo-traditionalists, libertarians/anti-NSA people are all the new Commies paid by Moscow' propaganda line?

Anonymous said...

The problem Whiskey doesn't notice, but certain Russophobe fanatics have, is that Moscow is already getting a piece of the Leviathian pie. And offshore gas takes longer to develop and costs more than on shore fields, fracked or unfracked. Russia's chief competitor for cheap gas to EU is not Israel but the Central Asia Stans and Iran/Qatar, which is why Z. Bzrezinski and the neocons were so obsessed with Nabucco. It was supposed to be the bait that would allow the Sunnis and Shi'a to bury the hatchet and for Iran to finally come in from the cold at Moscow's expense. Syria was supposed to be the highway for this gas pipe which is why Putin has backed Assad to the nines. The amount of foreign and military aid Russia is pouring into Damascus numbers into the billions, but it is small compared to what Gazprom would lose if the Qataris got their grand dreamed of pipeline. No doubt Bibi was promised a Leviathian connector to the Qatari grand Arab gas pipe but as usual everyone is betraying everyone else, Iran wanted the pipeline without the Qataris, the Sunnis Muslim Brothers were going to betray the Jews or failing that sabotage any Israeli trunk line making landfall in Lebanon or Syria, and Russia is cleverly playing off everyone against everyone else exploiting Obama's stupidity and strategic dependency (if not employee status with) Doha and Riyadh.

I remember the good ole' days when Pat Buchanan could honestly denounce the neocons as Israel's amen corner. Now when it comes to Syria Mikey Weiss, Saban Center ex-Mike Doran and the rest of that crowd are Doha's Amen Corner. It's been spectacular to watch rich Gulf Sunnis coopt gullible American neocon Jews who still think they're promoting some Israeli interest, even as most of the IDF/IAF/Mossad DON'T WANT A MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOVERNMENT IN DAMASCUS AND WITH DAMN GOOD REASON! Once again Moscow sees daylight between Israeli Jews and those idiotic neocons who claim to speak for them in Washington, and is moving in to ruthlessly exploit the cognitive dissonance there. "Spengler" aka David P. Goldman certainly didn't want Obama to intervene on behalf of the Ikwhans and Al Nusra Front, and there are many others like him who just didn't want to publically contradict AIPAC.

Anonymous said...

Good intentions but a bit condescending and self-flattering on the part of the voters, maybe?

http://bit.ly/1ajF6hp

"We are such gooooooooood people."

Ending bullying is one thing. But billying inferior as superior is tacky.