February 13, 2014

Why so few above average black QBs?

Here's a graph from a gigantic Deadspin compilation on the subject of black NFL quarterbacks. It's of the distribution of quarterback seasons by yards per pass attempt (which is probably the single best traditional statistic for assessing passing performance) versus that season's league average. White quarterbacks are distributed in a bell curve, while there are a lot of fair to middling black quarterbacks, but a clear shortage of ones more than 5% better than the league. 

This chart doesn't include running yards, which blacks are better at compiling. So, the two groups are more similar in overall effectiveness. But it does deflate the not implausible assumption that blacks ought to be better passers because they are more dangerous runners, so the defense have to look out for the QB taking off downfield.

My guess would be that the game has gotten so sophisticated that it's now hard to become a consistently well-above average NFL passer if you haven't been focused on passing and nothing much else since you were about 13 years old. 

And that sort of means that you need your Dad coaching you or hiring QB tutors for you, instead of just listening to your coach. Your coach's conflict of interest is that he needs to win this weekend's game more than he needs to develop you as an NFL pocket passer. Most black guys who have played quarterback in the NFL were just about the best runners on their high school teams. So, if you want to leave the pocket, put the ball under your arm and run to victory, well that's okay with your coach even if it develops habits in you incompatible with being a Manning/Brady in the NFL. (Among other things, it's not fair to your teammates to prioritize your development over the team winning.)

I don't know that that's true, but it seems like something that could be tested with enough high school data.
  

64 comments:

Dan said...

Boycott!

Anonymous said...

1. How do interceptions factor in? Throwing 2 picks a game would do very little to your YPA, but would also almost certainly make your the worst quarterback in the league.
2. YPA doesn't factor in how much a quarterback has to throw. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson both have gaudy YPA figures, but are usually around the middle or below in total yardage. They have great defenses, so they're rarely playing from behind, and relatedly, they have very good running games. Is it possible that teams with black quarterbacks generally rely more on their running games, and so black quarterbacks are expected to make less tough throws than a guy like Drew Brees, who has to throw it a ton because his defense and running game are awful.

Anonymous said...

Why so few above average black QBs?

Racism, obviously.

Steve Sailer said...

There are synthetic measures. The oldest is the NFL's passer ratings, which combines yards per attempt, % completion, touchdowns, and interceptions. There are newer synthetic measures that add in other stats.

In general, though, yards per attempt correlates well with most of these more advanced measures.

Anonymous said...

Off topic - Have you been watching the women's golf in Australia?
There's a teenage Chinese girl playing well and there's also Tiger Woods' niece Cheyenne. Maybe something to look into?

Dan said...

Why are there so few black fighter pilots? next.

Also one thing about black athletes. They drop dead. Sickle Cell caused heart attacks. 20 dead NCAA from this in one decade. In what other sport do highly conditioned sportsmen drop dead from congenital defects? What is it, 10% of blacks have this disorder/condition. They would be dropping like flies without constant play stoppages and advert breaks.

Steve Sailer said...

The declining marginal returns on passing theory sounds plausible, but the evidence for it is less rock solid than I would have assumed. It was probably true in the days of Bart Starr or Bob Griese, but nowadays it may be that the more you throw, the more you get into a rhythm.

In the past, when QBs fearlessly heaved the ball way way down field, interceptions were common, but the modern short passing game can hang on to leads without all that much more risk of turnovers than running the ball. So, you see Manning, Brees, Brady, and the like throwing the ball huge numbers of times without much of a dent in their stats.

Steve Sailer said...

Get a big enough sample size and differences in offense and defense probably wash out. For example, all else being equal, it probably benefits a QB's yards per attempt to have a good defense.

But from the strategic perspective offenses and defenses aren't wholly independent: e.g., do you use your first round draft pick on a wide receiver or on a linebacker? If the team spent more money on its defense than on its receivers and pass blockers, why penalize the quarterback's statistics for that?

Anonymous said...

Off topic - Have you been watching the women's golf in Australia?
There's a teenage Chinese girl playing well and there's also Tiger Woods' niece Cheyenne. Maybe something to look into?


Quick search says she's Korean. Koreans, particularly their women, seem to excel at aiming sports like Golf and Archery. I looked up Olympic shooting and not too shabby at 12th place medal count for a country with no gun tradition.

Anonymous said...

Which graph is Colin Kaepernick's statistics in?

The Z Blog said...

There's another factor. Starting about a decade ago high school coaches started jumping on the spread option as an easy way to produce offense. This is not a system conducive to developing pocket passers.

That means the development of passing skills, which is more about reading defenses than physical skills, is now a college job. Twenty years ago, kids would show up at college knowing how to go through progressions and look off defenders. Now they have to learn it in college.

The fundamental challenge for the NFL in their quest to Africanize the QB spot is how to keep them upright. Instead, we may be headed to a period where teams have three running QB's of equal talent.

Douglas Knight said...

You seem to be explaining the wrong thing. Your theory looks like a theory of why black QBs are bad passers. But you identified an interesting question: why is their distribution not shaped like a bell? A theory of the mean quality that fails to address the whole distribution is probably wrong. Doesn't your theory predict low median quality, which is false?

Ian said...

Steve,

Have you ever addressed why in baseball, great starting pitching seems to be dominated by whites to a much greater extent than great hitting is? For example, if you compare Cy Young Award winners with MVP winners over the years, the proportion of whites in the former is much higher.

Anonymous said...

"Which graph is Colin Kaepernick's statistics in?"

A scintillating question. Answer?

Anonymous said...

There's another factor. Starting about a decade ago high school coaches started jumping on the spread option as an easy way to produce offense. This is not a system conducive to developing pocket passers.

That means the development of passing skills, which is more about reading defenses than physical skills, is now a college job. Twenty years ago, kids would show up at college knowing how to go through progressions and look off defenders. Now they have to learn it in college.


There is some truth in this. I think this will hurt the development of future Mannings, Bradys and Breeses. These guys need time to develop.

I know in the 1970s and 80s, you had the wishbone and I-formation offenses which never gave pocket passers a chance to develop. But the QBs in these offenses didn't pass that much and so were not really drafted into the NFL as QBs. So other QBs that got experience in more pass oriented offenses were drafted and developed by the NFL into QBs.

But with today's offenses, you get a lot of athletes who get to pass a lot in addition to carrying the ball. But their passing is not very sophisticated. They are able to hit open receivers because of their superlative threat to run against college defenses. Because of this if you can get a Vince Young, Brad Smith or Corby Jones, you put them in because you can get instant offense. You do this as a college coach because the pressure to win now is greater than it was twenty years ago. You don't have the luxury to bring along a pocket passer unless he is already ahead of the curve like Andrew Luck.

And for the NFL at draft time, you are not going to risk a top draft pick for someone who never got to develop. Even Tom Brady did not get drafted until the 6th round. Instead, you take your chances with the Vince Youngs of the world, because more and more colleges are turning turning out these types of QBs.

If the game continues to progress like this, you will probably see less and less pocket passers, white or black, because they will just not have had the time to develop.

ben tillman said...

The declining marginal returns on passing theory sounds plausible, but the evidence for it is less rock solid than I would have assumed. It was probably true in the days of Bart Starr or Bob Griese, but nowadays it may be that the more you throw, the more you get into a rhythm.

There's something to it, though. Paul Johnson's flexbone offense at Georgia Tech has led the nation in yards per pass two of the last five years and finished second once. In the last five years, Navy finished second twice while Air Force finished in the top 7 three tens.

bluto said...

My guess is success at passing depends on a higher thinking that's hard to predict with tests (rapidly judging when and where the defense will open for a passing lane).

Anonymous said...

Example of the high school black qb with superior athletic talent, but a bust in throwing the ball: Oakland's Terrelle Pryor, who qbed at Ohio State. Pryor was one of the most heavily recruited seniors in high school, yet chose a school not known for turning out NFL successful quarterbacks, Ohio State.

Fleet of foot, great escapability, Pryor suffers from inaccuracy and has trouble throwing to receivers running routes and coming out of their cuts. He only has passing success when the play breaks down, he runs around in the backfield (can only throw on the run to his right so defenders know to run to their left) and his receivers cut off their routes and run back to him. He'll never be successful as a qb

Fans want him to convert to a WR but word is, he won't. Trade or cut.

Whiskey said...

How willing will the White male audience to watch if there are no or few White star qbs? Half the NBA arenas are half empty during games, being Black puts a cap on domestic and foreign growth.

For the NFL foreign growth has always failed. City/State funding ofvstadiums depends on a White fanbase willing to watch. White guys are not like White women, we have less appetite for all things Black.

Switch from the NFL to say, auto, motorcycle racing or EPL or hockey is cst free. Seems risky to me but I'm not Jerry Jones.

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bpXfcTF6iVk

A work of cinematic iconography trying to pass its lurid/profane self as serious art. It has the look and feel of a Catholic Church with the uneasy fusion of colorful idolatry and somber sanctimony. But gripping and wrenching throughout its 2 1/2 hrs. Despite visuals that are often too arty for their own good, the power and even sublimity of certain scenes cannot be denied.

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vjmZGaXDRHY

Now THIS is a great film. A work of art.

Anonymous said...

Deadspin has a great piece on how Peter King and SI enabled a negative narrative on the gay SEC player heading into the draft. Deadspin is in the front line of WWG.

Anonymous said...

No doubt white people are feeling the heat though. Used to be that whites had exclusive control over the position. Now blacks are making consistent gains and the new running qb benefits blacks more.

Well at least you guys have hockey!

Bone Daddy Dawg said...

The QB passing game is highly g-laden; the QB running game isn't. QBs need to know (and in many cases, call) something like 60 plays, and then choose a receiver from competing options based on info the QB is receiving in scant real-time, and then execute within seconds...

wiseguy said...

I think anonymous at 6:29's point is that game managers like Russell Wilson or A.J. McCarron can compile gaudy YPA figures because, when they do pass, the defense isn't so geared towards stopping them--the opposing defense is often focusing on the run instead. Also, a quarterback playing with the lead and a good running attack can be picky about when and where he throws. In contrast, guys like Manning are putting up high YPAs despite being less picky about where they throw and having defenses expecting their passes. So Manning's high YPA is much more impressive than Wilson's, and Brees, even though he's clearly the better quarterback, actually has a lower YPA than Wilson because he often has to force throws that Wilson doesn't.

Anonymous said...

An IQ gene, maybe:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10631319/Is-intelligence-written-in-the-genes.html

Anonymous said...

Why are there so few great black generals/surgeons/tycoons/chess grandmasters/scientists...

BTW I don't mean the Washington Generals.

Anonymous said...

Same in soccer. The stand out position is playmaker (equivalent of QB). Despite blacka being over represented at all levels, the very highest players are always white - Ronaldo, Messi, Zidane, Gerrard, Ibrahimovic. It's because it needs intelligence and crrativity rather than raw athleticism.

Dan said...

The answer: the Atlatl? Missile weaponry is a white thing.

Anonymous said...

Talk about "not noticing".

Blacks win all of the Olympic sprints=black are better natural runners vs. Whites are much better QB's=something about the system favors them!!

White people can't win even with the "white racists".

Anonymous said...

Happy to see you considering a cultural rather than genetic reason for the difference first. While I know and agree that both nature and nurture play a role, I do think that Michael Oher's IQ increase after the Tuohys helped him (they claim to have more than erased the one standard deviation gap), even if exaggerated a bit, should make one wonder what Michael Oher might have been capable of without the intensive tutoring the Tuohys provided had much of his childhood not been educationally wasted.

Note that what it takes to be a Quarterback seems to change substantially between high school and college and then again between college and the NFL such that recruiting a star at one level often does not guarantee that they'll be a star at the next level, and many fail to live up to expectations because of it. So I think you may be on to something about training players for what they'll face in the NFL rather than what works in high school or college playing a role.

Anonymous said...

Here is a highlight reel of Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville playing Rutgers in 2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ELPwI9_y5U

What made this memorable for me, as a Rutgers alumni, is that he led his team to beat Rutgers with a broken left wrist and a sprained ankle, essentially hobbling around in the pocket and throwing passes (completing 20 of 28) with his good arm, not really able to run:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/gabriel_baumgaertner/11/30/louisville-defeats-rutgers-earns-bcs-berth/

He's apparently someone teams in the NFL are looking at for the 2014 draft:

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/02/teddy-bridgewater-2014-nfl-draft/

Anonymous said...

Two paragraphs from the article about Teddy Bridgewater's NFL draft prospects in 2014 ( http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/02/teddy-bridgewater-2014-nfl-draft/ ) that actually supports your point about early training toward NFL play even when college play is different:

"What you can’t help but marvel at with Bridgewater is how technically proficient he is at playing the position, especially at his age. From footwork to his release and subtle, yet important movements, Bridgewater is polished like few are. He’ll move a safety with a look to one side of the field, then fire the ball into the opening he just created. Bridgewater’s footwork selling a screen or play fake is exquisite. He always throws a tight spiral, rarely throws off balance, and he is not afraid to fit a ball into a tight window or throw deep. When it comes to facing pressure, Bridgewater is cold-blooded. He can move and create plays when he needs to, but Bridgewater lives in the pocket. No matter how the game is influenced by college offenses, that always will be of vital importance to the viability of a franchise quarterback."

"Bridgewater does all that by showing the accuracy that NFL teams crave. For his career, Bridgewater completed 68.3 percent of his passes. Since posting 64.5 percent as a true freshman and after a come-to-Jesus exhaustive critique of Bridgewater’s game by Watson, Bridgewater completed 69.7 percent of his passes, including 71 percent this past season."

poolside said...

I've watched a lot of Texas high school football over the past 10-12 years.

There is a definite trend toward schools using black QBs who carry the ball on most plays.

Years ago, those players would have been running backs, but I guess coaches figure it's just easier to snap them the ball directly and let them run.

And then every 10th play or so, these QBs take a couple of steps back and heave the ball downfield where a fleet-footed receiver can run it down.

It's not fancy football -- and it's certainly not developing pro-style quarterbacks -- but it works on the scoreboard.

Anonymous said...

May I postulate that perhaps the lack of excellent black quarterbacks is a result of the collapse of the black family? Namely the lack of fathers in the home.

The most recent string of very good black QBs who entered the league in the last three years:Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, and the Super Bowl winning Russell Wilson; all came from intact middle class families.

After all, quarterbacking takes good decision making and hard mental work as well as natural ability. Raw talent make work just fine for a defensive end, but gives you the likes of Ryan Leaf in the quarterback position. Could it be that the real indicator of a great QB is a solid family upbringing and dedication to hard work that (should) come from that background? And that blacks who have that background do as well as whites?

Anonymous said...

No doubt white people are feeling the heat though. Used to be that whites had exclusive control over the position. Now blacks are making consistent gains and the new running qb benefits blacks more.
______________

Terrelle Pryor's problem is he can't learn the playbook much less read a defense. The knock on Mike Vick has always been that after all these years, he still can't read defenses.

Anonymous said...

Steve's onto something with his comment about fathers. Having a strong father clearly helps with success in an all male environment. But...


Im not sure smarts and creativity matter all that much anymore. Not when QBs can have a cheat sheet on their wrist and get the play calls in by radio. And certainly the best quarterbacks of yesteryear, guys lke Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw, were not very smart humans.


I think it has to do with focus. An athlete can out-athlete high school and college competition, and can win games without ever having to learn the position. He doesn't have to focus on mechanics in order to win games, indeed at the low levels such focus may even be counterproductive to winning games. A lesser athlete can't just out athlete and has to focus on perfect mechanics.

Russell Wilson, not the most athletic guy, looks like he'll win multiple Super Bowls on the way to a Hall of Fame career. He plays like a white quarterback.

RG3 wins games almost by himself, out-athleting the other team. But everytime he takes off and runs, he gets hit at the end of the play by a 260+ pound linebacker. RG3 looks to be the kind of QB who can win in the regular season but is hobbled every postseason.

Cam Newton has the motor and instincts of RG3, and had the results of RG3 too. At least he and his coaches realize that he needs to be more like Wilson than RG3. He lookalike a guy who is learning the position. Steve McNair took almost 8 years in th NFL before he really learned how to play. That might be Cam's career path.

pat said...

It's always interesting to see what kind of explanation a person will advance to account for an uncertain phenomenon.

For example I recently wrote a Jewish friend of mind who is a musician about my speculation that Jewish composers are uniquely adept at melody. This was an idea that came to me while thinking about an iSteve blog about black composers. He wrote back that it 'might be the klezmer tradition'. I had to look that up, but the important point is that as a liberal he instinctively chose an environmentalist explanation.

What is surprising about your explanation - that doesn't mean it's wrong just surprising - is that you likewise choose an environmentalist explanation. Your commitment to HBD not withstanding.

Normally I would expect that person's arm strength would be in proportion to his leg strength. But is that true for all the races? Blacks are well known to have good legs but are their arms just as good? I don't know.

Certainly black prize fighters often have a good punch. But is that from faster reflexes or stronger arms. I don't know. Someone needs to do some analysis of major league pitchers. Right off the top of my head (and just having recently seen '42') I'm aware that all the great base stealers since Cobb have been black (Canseco doesn't count). But there don't seem to have been a similar black dominance among pitchers.

I have some giant baseball statistics books somewhere so I could look it up I suppose. But that's your job isn't it?

Albertosaurus

BurplesonAFB said...

Because the white distribution is based on 200 QB seasons and the black distribution is based on 30?

Do we expect 30 people to fit neatly into a bell curve with 14 gradiations? We leave this question as an exercise for the student.

Anonymous said...

"And certainly the best quarterbacks of yesteryear, guys lke Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw, were not very smart humans."

QBs of yesteryear were far less accurate than the quarterbacks of today. Certainly, some changes in the rules help quarterbacks, but offenses have gotten a lot more complex and, with the right quarterback, effective.

By the way, speaking of football, Deadspin is freaking out about the "bullying" scandal again. What a joke. Decadence. The more I think about it, homosexual marriage doesn't bother me because it will have terrible, deleterious effects on society, but because its a symbol of its decadence.

Anonymous said...

what is the distribution of just black QBs?

Anonymous said...

"May I postulate that perhaps the lack of excellent black quarterbacks is a result of the collapse of the black family? Namely the lack of fathers in the home." - There are basically the same number of married black families today as there were 40 years ago, perhaps slightly less as per whites. Certainly more than enough to produce 50-100 good QBs a year.

The difference has been the explosion of the not married population.

Anonymous said...

My guess is it's an artifact from statistical noise, Steve. Notice the black QB histogram only has 30 as its largest value, whereas the non black one goes up to 300. We'd expect a smaller set of values to be noisier.

helene edwards said...

I was never a Whiskey basher, but that stuff about all-black NBA rosters leading to half empty arenas is wrong. Arenas were full in the late '80's when the floor was just as black. What's changed is that now the stands are also full of arrogant blacks pumped up on fat public salaries, the few white players get slapped around, huge traffic jams make it harder for suburbanites to get to the arena ... all sorts of new factors to sift.

Anonymous said...

Some information about Teddy Bridgewater's background:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8539767/louisville-cardinals-qb-teddy-bridgewater-learned-persevere-mother-ncf

Anonymous said...

The knock on Mike Vick has always been that after all these years, he still can't read defenses.

Im not sure smarts and creativity matter all that much anymore. Not when QBs can have a cheat sheet on their wrist and get the play calls in by radio. And certainly the best quarterbacks of yesteryear, guys lke Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw, were not very smart humans.

First, every NFL quarterback can read a defense, at least on film or from a press box. Reading a defense once the ball is snapped is a different matter. Second, they know the playbook. But once the ball is snapped things change.

The problem is that to be a high quality quarterback you need more than a high IQ, arm strength and athletic ability. You have to have the right personality type. And that type is rare.

Think about all the pilots that NASA could have chosen to be in the moon program. There were many highly skilled, brash pilots who were aces from WW2 and Korea. But NASA needed guys with the right personality makeup that would make them calm under pressure. A hot head might get pissed and make a crazy run into an enemy formation and live to tell about it. But an astronaut could not lose his composure. Think about the Apollo 13 guys. A lot of people would have punched the control panel in that situation. The Apollo 13 guys didn't even swear. They just continued to function in a robotic way until a solution was found to get them back to Earth.

Of the hundred thousand or so kids that play quarterback in high school, the 110 that play it in big time college football, there are only 32 starting slots in the NFL. And of those 32 there are probably only 16 guys who are decent enough that their teams are happy with them. The other 16 are in constant pressure of losing their jobs.

To become an elite NFL quarterback a guy needs to have the right mental makeup. You can't get flustered, you can't dwell on setbacks, and you can't pout or throw tantrums.

Bret Favre once said that he could throw 5 interceptions in five straight possessions. But on the sixth possession, he would still believe he is the best QB in the land. That is easier said then done.

Even if a guy knows the playbook or has a cheat sheet on his wrist, when the ball is snapped there is chaos. Eleven defenders and the ten other offensive players mix, mash and scatter. The QB might have 2 to 3 seconds to get rid of the ball. A lot of guys can't handle that. They might know the play and the routes the receivers will run, but all that chaos makes it confusing.

That's why so many QBs throw to their primary receiver regardless if he is covered or not, because they are unable to slow the game down and find the secondary or tertiary receivers. The game just moves too fast.

I know. I was once was of those unknown kids in high school. I had a decent arm, decent speed, was an honor student who memorized the playbook and could tell each person on the team what he was supposed to do on every play. But if I threw an interception, my confidence would fade. I would find myself deciding whom to throw to BEFORE the ball was snapped. I knew it was wrong. But I, along with tens of thousands of other would-be QBs, could not slow the game down once the ball was snapped. It was always chaos. Fortunately we were a run-oriented offense.

Olmec said...

Black quarterbacks were disproportionately represented in the last playoffs and a black quarterback won the Superbowl.

Last year a black quarterback also made it to the Superbowl.

The best quarterbacks in college football are increasingly blacks. One of them won the Heismann trophy this year.

I am willing to bet that within 5 years the majority of quarterbacks
in the NFL will be non-whites.

RonMexico said...

Olmec, "
I am willing to bet that within 5 years the majority of quarterbacks
in the NFL will be non-whites."

I would love to take money from you. So, in 2019, there will be 45+ non-white QBs on regular season NFL rosters?

Olmec said...

Well,there are 32 teams in the NFL so there are a maximum of 32 quarterbacks to start the season. In 2013 there were 10 non-white starting quarterbacks, 9 black and 1 amerindian. Almost one-third.

Considering how successful black quarterbacks have been in the NFL recently and considering how many more elite black quarterbacks are coming down the college pipeline, it is reasonable to project that there could be 15 or more black quarterbacks starting the 2019 season compared to the 9 in 2013. Add a couple other non-whites (samoan, amerindian, hispanic) and
it is a good bet that within 5 years white franchise quarterbacks will become a minority in the NFL.

Olmec said...

The last 4 Heismann Trophy winners have all been quarterbacks and 3 of them are black. The one who is not black is half arab half south euro.

All 4 are mobile quarterbacks. See the trend?

Anonymous said...

The last 4 Heismann Trophy winners have all been quarterbacks and 3 of them are black. The one who is not black is half arab half south euro.

All 4 are mobile quarterbacks. See the trend?


Mobile black quarterbacks have been around awhile. There have been several times in the past 20 years where the black quarterback was supposed to be the future. I can remember Randall Cunningham. I remember Warren Moon. I remember Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, and of course Michael Vick.

Those guys all had talent. But the white quarterback still remained.

Maybe this time will be different. I'd still pick Andrew Luck as the best young quarterback in the NFL. I think RG3 is not going to hold up. And we will see what happens with R. Wilson and Colin K. once their teams have to start paying them money. Right now their salaries are so low, their teams can afford to load up other areas of the team with talent.

When those black QBs start commanding salaries and eating cap money, how will they perform when their teams can no longer afford to keep other key players? Just look at Denver. They pay Peyton almost $20 million and don't have as much to spend on other positions.

Side note: Why would a guy like Peyton, net worth $150 million, take such a high salary and forgo the chance to surround himself with a better defense? At this stage of his career he clearly knows his piss poor record in the big games is hurting him more than his lofty stats are helping his reputation. Does anyone think John Elway would trade away one of his super bowl victories for an extra 20 percent in salary? Would Dan Marino give up 20 percent of his career earnings for just one super bowl? So why does Peyton kill Denver's cap when he could take a couple million and let them field a killer defense.?

Anonymous said...

Kap and Wilson are both highly atypical for black quarterbacks. Kap was adopted by a middle class white family. Wilson's father was an attorney and Dartmouth man. So they likely had access to the quarterback mentors and camps that somebody like Vick did not. So that's nurture. But nature also seems to have done them well. Kap scored 38 on the wonderlic, which is obviously high. Wilson scored 28,which isn't that great, but at least one SD above average. When they start pumping out on a regular basis black quarterbacks with 115+ IQs out of households that could afford them early QB training, then maybe it'll be the age of the black quarterback. But until then, I think it's doubtful.

RonMexico said...

Olmec, " Olmec said...
Well,there are 32 teams in the NFL so there are a maximum of 32 quarterbacks to start the season. In 2013 there were 10 non-white starting quarterbacks, 9 black and 1 amerindian. Almost one-third.

Considering how successful black quarterbacks have been in the NFL recently and considering how many more elite black quarterbacks are coming down the college pipeline, it is reasonable to project that there could be 15 or more black quarterbacks starting the 2019 season compared to the 9 in 2013. Add a couple other non-whites (samoan, amerindian, hispanic) and
it is a good bet that within 5 years white franchise quarterbacks will become a minority in the NFL."

I see what you did there, slipping in "starting". But your bet is weakened by saying "franchise". Too much money involved to make an RG3 or Mike Vick your franchise quarterback. Should the Bills make Manuel a franchise Q? Jets make Geno a franchise Q? Samoan? Is Jack Thompson still playing? Most teams carry 3 quarterbacks, so I don't see "half" being non-white. Curious, does Tony Romo count as white or Hispanic? Or a Zimmerman white-hispanic?

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:04, that's another reason to respect Tom Brady, who has left salary on the table in the past for the ultra-penurious Patriots to pay other players with. Of course, it helps when your wife makes $32 million for walking around in her underwear!

Olmec said...

"Samoan? Is Jack Thompson still playing?"

Come on, it is obvious that I am talking of the next 5 years. I was thinking of Marcus Mariota of the Oregon Ducks, another elite non-white mobile quarterback coming down the pipeline.

Non-starting quarterbacks? Give it 10 years and the majority of them will be non-whites as well.

Franchise quarterbacks? Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees et al will be retired in less than 5 years. Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick will likely be franchise quarterbacks instead.

Olmec said...

"Maybe this time will be different"

Yes it will. Watch college football to see which way the wind is blowing. Both teams in this years national championship game were led by black quarterbacks.

And the current NFL champions are led by a black quarterback....



Anonymous said...

Yes it will. Watch college football to see which way the wind is blowing. Both teams in this years national championship game were led by black quarterbacks.

And the current NFL champions are led by a black quarterback....


There are a growing number of black QBs, but 9 of the top 12 QB prospects in this year's draft are white, though Teddy Bridgewater is the top prospect and he is black. Also, the top young NFL quarterback is Andrew Luck.

Wilson might have been on the Super Bowl winners, but that team was built on defense. Wilson is not bad. I like his play. But time will tell if he can be a QB that carries a team, or if he is a better version of a Trent Dilfer who doesn't screw things up and relies on a strong defense. That is not a slam against Wilson. I wish my team had a great D and a QB that wouldn't mess up a wet dream. But Andrew Luck appears to be another Tom Brady or Drew Brees type player if he can stay healthy.

The dilemma that others have pointed out is this. If indeed the QB position becomes dominated by blacks, NFL viewership will go down like what has happened to the NBA. It is only natural that different groups like to see people they can associate with. Look what Jeremy Lin did for Asians watching the NBA. Long term you will probably see a continued rise in soccer viewership by white fans.

Cail Corishev said...

Yes it will. Watch college football to see which way the wind is blowing. Both teams in this years national championship game were led by black quarterbacks.

College football has been blowing that way for decades, and it hasn't translated to the NFL. There are many black QBs who excel in college, and sometimes the NFL gets really excited about one and drafts him highly, and it usually doesn't go well. Not because they're black -- the same thing happens sometimes with a white "running QB" -- but because the game is different.

In the NFL, a QB can only run without getting destroyed if his arm is enough of a threat to keep the defense honest. If he can't read coverages and blitzes fast enough and check through his receivers without telegraphing his passes, defenses will load up and come after him. (See the Chiefs' destruction of RG3 last season.)

It's possible that that will change, and "athletic" running QBs will become the norm. You've given no reason for us to expect that, though. A couple recent exceptions to the rule prove nothing. Maybe more QB-protecting rule changes would help.

Olmec said...

"It's possible that that will change, and "athletic" running QBs will become the norm. You've given no reason for us to expect that, though. A couple recent exceptions to the rule prove nothing."

Actually I have given the best reason why mobile athletic quarterbacks, who are mostly black, will dominate football in the near future: they are winning both college and professional championships. Isn't that what ultimately counts in a meritocracy?

In fact according to this sports pundit I am being a bit conservative about the timing of the paradigm shift, he thinks it could happen in just 2 years:

http://thebiglead.com/2013/09/13/the-nfl-is-entering-the-golden-age-of-black-quarterbacks/


"It is conceivable that by Week 1 in 2015, half of the 32 NFL teams could have a black starting QB.

“Absolutely that could happen,” said Daniel Jeremiah an NFL Network analyst who previously was an NFL scout with the Ravens, Eagles and Browns. “So many African-American quarterbacks are now being allowed to throw the ball in college, and they’re being successful. There’s another whole wave of talented kids coming.”"

Olmec said...

"If indeed the QB position becomes dominated by blacks, NFL viewership will go down like what has happened to the NBA."

Actually, the NFL has been dominated by black players for a long time already yet it has gone from strength to strength. While baseball which is still majority white has been losing ground....even to overwhelmingly black basketball:

http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/november/nba-finals-vs-world-series-ratings-since-1984.html

"Over the last 30 years, the NBA has gone from registering a mere blip on MLB's radar and drawing just half the numbers of their baseball brethren to seeing the NBA Finals pass the World Series in average ratings....

For 4 straight years and 5 out of the last 6, the NBA has beat MLB for their championship series."


If your wishful thinking had been true, Ice Hockey and NASCAR would be the most popular spectator sports in America. That is not the case is it?

Anonymous said...

Actually, the NFL has been dominated by black players for a long time already yet it has gone from strength to strength. While baseball which is still majority white has been losing ground....even to overwhelmingly black basketball:

But the marquee position, QB, has still remained an overwhelmingly white position. Take that away and I don't see it having the same popularity, unless another demographic group like Asians or Hispanics suddenly take an interest and start to play the game in numbers.

Baseball is dominated by latins, and it killed itself with the 1994 strike. The marquee players on a team are generally black or latin, or black hispanic, if you will. Though there are some good whites, most teams are not built around marquee whites.

If your wishful thinking had been true, Ice Hockey and NASCAR would be the most popular spectator sports in America. That is not the case is it?

Ice hockey will probably never have a following beyond regions where it is played. I'm white and never watch it because I don't understand it. I've never been on ice and don't know the first thing about skating. I presume many other whites and nonwhites feel the same.

NASCAR, which I don't watch, is apparently successful.

NASCAR on FOX concluded its 2013 portion of the season as the highest-rated and most-watched sport in-season for the 13th straight season, according to figures released today by Nielsen Media Research.
...


In addition to its 13-year in-season reign, the 2013 NASCAR on FOX season also outperformed the NBA Playoffs on ABC by +41% (4.8 vs. 3.4), as well as complete NBA Conference Finals coverage on all networks by +7% (4.8 vs. 4.5).

Marissa said...

NASCAR also has the largest stadiums of any sport (at least any I can think of). I imagine more people want to watch it in the stands than on TV too considering what it is.

RonMexico said...

Anon 10:27, "Baseball is dominated by latins, and it killed itself with the 1994 strike. The marquee players on a team are generally black or latin, or black hispanic, if you will. Though there are some good whites, most teams are not built around marquee whites."

No, the majority of #1 and #2 starters are white, save for the occasional David Price or Felix Hernandez. Japanese have done well as relievers. The Latins are more heavily represented as position players. The guys who receive votes for the major awards seem to break down evenly between whites and Latins, with the occasional Jap or black.

Back to the original Olmec post, blacks won't be the majority of QBs, nor starting QBs, in the NFL in 5 years. I'm Still waiting for the army of Tiger Woods clones to dominate the PGA 17 years later.

John Negroparty said...

This is a very easy question to answer:

Playing QB is extremely difficult to learn at a professional level and if you look at the curve of Y/A each season of a QB career the jump between years 1-4 is extreme. Black QBs are not given time to develop, and even after being benched they are far less likely to catch on as backups.

"When controlling for injury, age, experience, performance, team investment, backup quality, and bye weeks, Black quarterbacks are found to be 1.98–2.46 times more likely to be benched."

http://jse.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/10/20/1527002515609659.abstract

This is a no-brainer. And yes, teams with running QBs have both produced better overall run games, a higher Y/A average and better offenses (by FO's DVOA measure,) and better W-L records (58% W-L) than average over the last 10 years.