tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post2640128796312015352..comments2024-03-27T18:24:19.683-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: The solution for unwanted statisticsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-64984666280177694252012-02-14T08:19:13.067-08:002012-02-14T08:19:13.067-08:00Marlow,
Yes I used a quote from one of Adam'...Marlow, <br /><br />Yes I used a quote from one of Adam's books to illustrate a point and mentioned Pournelle alluding to the BuTech without specifically mentioning it by name.<br /><br />I figured isteve readers would figure it out for themselves and be familiar with both. My mistake.Rainforest Gianthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05240761465708154282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-17338491784670270252012-02-13T22:10:45.199-08:002012-02-13T22:10:45.199-08:00TGGP: RKU, black people have been in the U.S for c...TGGP: <i>RKU, black people have been in the U.S for centuries. I expect the dead vastly outnumber the living. How do you estimate "a third" are dead or incarcerated?</i><br /><br />My apologies for such an embarrassing lack of language precision in my casual blogsite comment. I was obviously referring to the fraction of the current adult urban male age-cohort which is already dead or in prison, particularly the prime-crime age-cohort of something like 20-50.<br /><br />And I certainly can't guarantee the correct figure is actually one-third, since I've never tried to precisely calculate it. I first became aware of this rather astonishing (possible) statistic some years back, when reading a very lengthy NYT article describing the great difficulties faced by black NYT women seeking marriage. After recounting endless obstacles, there was a throw-away sentence near the bottom explaining that in NYC there were 1.5 adult black women for each adult black man, the "missing" men all being dead or in prison. Some time afterward, an NYT article about black travails in Baltimore provided the same ratio. The national statistics seem (very roughly) consistent with this general estimate.<br /><br />Since the American MSM operates much like Pravda or Izvestia, the shocking banner-headline facts are thus often buried in a short sentence at the bottom of a human-interest story on page A24. Presumably, when the Bubonic Plague exterminated one-third of Europe's population during the Middle Ages, the NYT of that era would have reported it as an implied aside in a human interest story about French peasants facing fewer crowding problems in their living conditions.RKUnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68045772876611130302012-02-13T21:00:02.236-08:002012-02-13T21:00:02.236-08:00"This other kind of innumeracy blurs out the ...<i>"This other kind of innumeracy blurs out the picture of misbehaving whites, as though Utah or Vermont could never be struck by an epidemic of child molesters, kidnappers, serial killers, along with the more mundane criminals. After all, they were certified NAM-free during the '60s through the '80s, so nothing could have gone wrong."</i><br /><br />I can't speak for anyone else but that has never been my position. Indeed, I've long believed that whites have enough pathology and criminality of their own to deal with. I'm not interested in whites policing--or having to police--any other race. <br /><br /><i>"It's sheer hubris to think that most of our problems only came into being because blacks moved next door, not that that wouldn't make them even worse of course."</i><br /><br />If you mean problems of any kind, sure. But if you mean the problems associated with worsening neighborhood conditions, I'm not so sure about that.Kylienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-215037693280563152012-02-13T20:56:58.830-08:002012-02-13T20:56:58.830-08:00"agnostic said...
The national property crim..."agnostic said...<br /><br />The national property crime rate has continued to fall every year since the early '90s peak, right through latest year that data are available, 2009, well into the recession."<br /><br />Of course it's also possible that law enforcement agencies have become less assiduous about collecting statistics or have disuaded people from filing reports.<br /><br />In any event, the national rates don't reflect what is going on in any particular locality. It's also possible that the crime has been on the increase in some ares, just as it has decreased in others, possibly following shifts in population.Mr. Anonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18517997869375181272012-02-13T19:06:05.892-08:002012-02-13T19:06:05.892-08:00RKU, black people have been in the U.S for centuri...RKU, black people have been in the U.S for centuries. I expect the dead vastly outnumber the living. How do you estimate "a third" are dead or incarcerated?TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-26574632568681279702012-02-13T18:59:13.977-08:002012-02-13T18:59:13.977-08:00By the same token, much of US military spending go...<i>By the same token, much of US military spending goes for wages, housing, medical benefits, and the like not hardware, men under arms, and the other stuff. ADJUSTED Chinese-US military spending would show an increasingly closing gap, because the Chinese pay PLA people wages akin to their factory workers.</i><br /><br />I agree with the implication Whiskey is putting forth. I'm sure the Chinese spend their military dollars far more shrewdly than we do. In the U.S., military spending is determined on a political basis. Thus, we keep building multi-billion dollar aircraft carriers while the Chinese develop million-dollar missiles that can sink them. How many troops in the PLA are being supported while on maternity leave? How's open homosexuality doing in the PLA?Harry Baldwinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-56123635727999389692012-02-13T15:10:24.289-08:002012-02-13T15:10:24.289-08:00The pdf came out in November 2011. The second sent...The pdf came out in November 2011. The second sentence of it notes that detailed data on 2009 and 2010 isn't available yet. There's a time lag on statistics. Perhaps the time lag in this case comes from the fact that establishing who offenders are may require some people to get convicted. I bet if you called up BJS, you could fairly easily get both an explanation of why there's a time lag and an estimate of when more recent numbers will become available.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-3664608436198236122012-02-13T13:07:14.950-08:002012-02-13T13:07:14.950-08:00Remember that the whole crime wave kicked off in 1...<i>Remember that the whole crime wave kicked off in 1959, during the post-WWII "Long Boom".</i><br /><br />That's because of black employment and migration.<br /><br />Instead of being out in the boonies, with lower pop. density (fewer potential victims) and more nature (less property around), blacks were now in environments with more opportunity for crime. Coupled with the social behavior and sexual revolution and new permissiveness unleashed in the 60s, and greater allowance for black assertiveness and less controls on their behavior, you had an explosive brew.<br /><br />The earlier black migration northward isn't really a counterexample. The blacks probably did increase the crime back then, but there were more controls on their behavior and behavior overall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41851511253124089142012-02-13T12:53:28.343-08:002012-02-13T12:53:28.343-08:00Not all crime is equal, and not all military spend...Not all crime is equal, and not all military spending is equal.<br /><br />Stuff like burgling people's homes while they are away, or their cars, or various frauds, are far less costly than murders. Murders have been ballparked (cannot remember the source, too lazy to look it up) at around $25 million or so social cost total for each murder. Murders also tend to drive away any and all business investment if they are sustained in a pattern.<br /><br />By the same token, much of US military spending goes for wages, housing, medical benefits, and the like not hardware, men under arms, and the other stuff. ADJUSTED Chinese-US military spending would show an increasingly closing gap, because the Chinese pay PLA people wages akin to their factory workers. Using that raw number is as deceptive as lumping White and Hispanic crime rates together.<br /><br />The US is likely in terminal military decline, vs. China, and likely to be treated in the future, much like the Philippines or Vietnam is by China today. That is a subservient, dominated nation ordered about by Beijing, or one facing constant threats.Whiskeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01854764809682029464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-46315102573984191712012-02-13T12:02:36.426-08:002012-02-13T12:02:36.426-08:00"THe overall crime rate may have declined up ..."THe overall crime rate may have declined up through 2005. There is however plenty of evidence to suggest that the crime rate has increased substantially since 2008. To judge by the police blotter and the nightly news where I live, property crimes - including armed robbery and home invasion - have become much more common over the last few years. An economic depression really does have consequences."<br /><br />The national property crime rate has continued to fall every year since the early '90s peak, right through latest year that data are available, 2009, well into the recession.<br /><br />Changes in prosperity are unrelated to changes in violent or property crime rates. Just another lame excuse for sociopaths -- they were hard-up.<br /><br />Remember that the whole crime wave kicked off in 1959, during the post-WWII "Long Boom".agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-74485034222196960552012-02-13T10:39:49.687-08:002012-02-13T10:39:49.687-08:00I didn't realise that Douglas Adams is a pseud...I didn't realise that Douglas Adams is a pseudonym of Jerry Pournelle.<br /><br />Wow. Perhaps The Mercenary and West of Honor were actually intended humorously.<br /><br />Is Newt Gingrich one of his alter egos as well?Marlowenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-49148016943030480442012-02-13T09:10:04.557-08:002012-02-13T09:10:04.557-08:00"Somebody here must be interested in the idea...<i>"Somebody here must be interested in the idea that Whitney destroyed her life and career to keep her ghetto license."</i><br /><br />Cry me a river.<br /><br />She destroyed "The Star-Spangled Banner" and "I Will Always Love You" by giving them the ghetto treatment. That's of far more importance to me than anything she may have done to herself by "keepin' it real" in order to placate "her people".As My Whimsy Takes Menoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-48930911449278168862012-02-13T07:58:48.425-08:002012-02-13T07:58:48.425-08:00"That's nothing compared to the Statistic..."That's nothing compared to the Statistical Abstract, which they're shutting down entirely."<br /><br /><br />What percent of workers in on that project are NAM's vs. white male nerds? Cutting costs there is a no brainer. They kick those guys out of government because they will find employment elsewhere, pay taxes, so the gov't can hire more NAM's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-49847274820298568342012-02-13T07:30:19.257-08:002012-02-13T07:30:19.257-08:00"Anonymous said...
I suppose they just d..."Anonymous said...<br /><br /> I suppose they just don't want to admit that the overall rate of crime has declined, that's just so not news."<br /><br />THe overall crime rate may have declined up through 2005. There is however plenty of evidence to suggest that the crime rate has increased substantially since 2008. To judge by the police blotter and the nightly news where I live, property crimes - including armed robbery and home invasion - have become much more common over the last few years. An economic depression really does have consequences.Mr. Anonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80510879887144431402012-02-13T07:21:33.464-08:002012-02-13T07:21:33.464-08:00Defeated, Whitney was always "Hood" and ...Defeated, Whitney was always "Hood" and very familiar with the rougher side of life. The public just wasn't aware of that until later.Scipio Africanusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41906318094953150072012-02-13T07:14:39.785-08:002012-02-13T07:14:39.785-08:00New national crisis developing. W. St.Paul, MN cit...New national crisis developing. W. St.Paul, MN city councilman is hanging a Confederate flag outside his house.<br /><br />http://news.yahoo.com/minn-city-councilman-defends-confederate-flag-outside-home-154818571.html<br /><i> A Minnesota city councilman has a Confederate flag hanging outside his home and says he's not taking it down, no matter what people say.<br />"It's my house," West St. Paul Councilman Ed Hansen told the Pioneer Press. "What's the problem?"</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-20866300086005448322012-02-13T07:06:46.700-08:002012-02-13T07:06:46.700-08:00Steve,
If someone published the 'Arthur Dent...Steve, <br /><br />If someone published the 'Arthur Dent' deal before me, please put mine first. I figure I've earned it as a long time reader and because I am likely taller than the other guy. Which matters if you are a caveman and since we're all part Neandertal, it should matter.Rainforest Gianthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05240761465708154282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-83079399098290023622012-02-13T07:04:42.988-08:002012-02-13T07:04:42.988-08:00"But Mr Dent, the plans have been available i..."But Mr Dent, the plans have been available in the local planning office for the last nine months."<br /><br />"Oh yes, well as soon as I heard I went straight round to see them, yesterday afternoon. You hadn't exactly gone out of your way to call attention to them, had you? I mean, like actually telling anybody or anything."<br /><br />"But the plans were on display ..."<br /><br />"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."<br /><br />"That's the display department."<br /><br />"With a flashlight."<br /><br />"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."<br /><br />"So had the stairs."<br /><br />"But look, you found the notice didn't you?"<br /><br />"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'."<br /><br />Those of you who think this has anything to do with Obama are not paying attention. The establishment does not want to admit the statistics. Both parties are complicit. <br /><br />In this day of the internet <i>any</i> statistics should be available nearly as quickly as they are gathered. Yet here we are with inconvenient facts ignored or obscured. What happens when ink and paper books become rare? <br /><br />Pournelle was a prophet as far as information dissemination goes.Rainforest Gianthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05240761465708154282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-29541789717409647902012-02-13T06:43:32.103-08:002012-02-13T06:43:32.103-08:00There's been an interesting picture circulatin...There's been an interesting picture circulating around the AltRight internet of Texas' Most Wanted. All the names are obviously of hispanic origin (Sanchez, Gomez, etc) but the ethnicity is listed as "white male".<br /><br />As others have pointed out, I'm sure this has something to do with driving down the murder ratio.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2730189188350321692012-02-13T05:54:23.607-08:002012-02-13T05:54:23.607-08:00here's a link to relatively current (2011) mil...here's a link to relatively current (2011) military expenditures as a percentage of GDP, from the SIPRI Yearbook:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures<br /><br />The US leads the pack in total expenditures, of course, coming in at $698 billion, or about 43% of all the world's military expenditures. China is a distant second at $119 billion, and Russia comes in at $59 billion.Black Deathnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-28006899983101682712012-02-13T05:52:03.018-08:002012-02-13T05:52:03.018-08:00The notion that this is some kind of dramatic cons...The notion that this is some kind of dramatic conspiracy is laughable. These stats come from an anonymous personal survey (National Crime Victimization Survey), not from administrative data. Except for a few very high-priority, well-funded surveys like the unemployment survey, it always takes several years for government to process those surveys and get a report up. The 2010 NCVS data is already going up (http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv10.pdf ) however it does not have crime by race of offender, which no doubt is the highest priority for some here.MQnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-34644044402406807402012-02-13T05:47:49.857-08:002012-02-13T05:47:49.857-08:00The homicide rate is probably low at this point be...The homicide rate is probably low at this point because the next generation of feral blacks has not reached maturity yet! But soon watch out I think it is already starting to spike up.Plus many of them have been dispersed to the outlying suburbs. Give that suburb group time to grow and fester and then watch out. But hey, the grand experiment continues. All the people I know have left the urban areas and moved to areas that are 90% white. It is these same people who claim that we are all created equal, while they continue running for the hills!europeasantnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-54638259309786722862012-02-13T04:27:11.048-08:002012-02-13T04:27:11.048-08:00Violent crime rates explode after desegregation c....Violent crime rates explode after desegregation c. mid-60s<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Violent_Crime_Rates_in_the_United_States.svg<br /><br />Incarceration rates grow in response but <b>lag</b> the growth in violent crime by c. ten years.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._incarceration_rates_1925_onwards.png<br /><br />Eventually incarceration rates catch up and crime goes down.<br /><br />So prison works short term.<br /><br />If the incarceration rate was maintained at a high enough level for long enough and the worst were the ones locked up then eventually the scale of the problem would reduce over time as the worst had fewer kids...(but only if the US wasn't making the problem worse by importing more people every year.)<br /><br />So prison would work long-term too.<br /><br />///<br /><br />Interesting stat from a Chicago po-leece blog who are apparently currently swamping ghetto areas with officers:<br />- shootings down 36%<br />- homicides down 63%<br /><br />The gangstas who keep their eyes open when they're shooting people seem to be disproportionately keeping their heads down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-76375039391671341252012-02-13T04:25:37.520-08:002012-02-13T04:25:37.520-08:00Another one is California abortion. All by itself...Another one is California abortion. All by itself, California used to account for over a quarter of U.S. abortions, but a dozen years ago California quit counting. Since 1998 or so, CDC reports aggregating abortion data have to make do without California.John Mansfieldhttp://www.jrganymede.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-26689490034890485302012-02-13T02:38:11.719-08:002012-02-13T02:38:11.719-08:00Speaking of homicide statistics, do Catholics actu...Speaking of homicide statistics, do Catholics actually believe that birth control qualifies as preemptive murder? <br /><br />An aside, I know plenty of Catholics with only two children. Knowing Catholics don't use birth control, especially after marriage, I can't help thinking that even fertile women suffer some damage to their ovaries. The tragedy of it all only truly revealed when placing the fertility statistics side by side with the abortion ones.dogzmanoreply@blogger.com