tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post4186746996658693035..comments2024-03-27T18:24:19.683-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Tetlock & Forecasting: Foxes v. Hedgehogs, Three Dog Night v. RamonesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2253500195179502052013-01-03T01:51:12.310-08:002013-01-03T01:51:12.310-08:00better than punk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q...better than punk<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKLvKZ6nIiA<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDN4L7cAQf0<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noER_E34jr4<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-84186370132295140392013-01-02T11:56:21.662-08:002013-01-02T11:56:21.662-08:00"smart-ass suburban Jewish songwriter writing... "smart-ass suburban Jewish songwriter writing about rednecks"<br /><br />Funniest thing about Randy is he's a Jew trying to sing like a Negro. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-6151026293858650862013-01-01T20:53:52.993-08:002013-01-01T20:53:52.993-08:00I know that if your major issue is immigration and...I know that if your major issue is immigration and the ethnic identity of the country, it is silly to be discredited by making faulty predictions about tangential issues like musical trends, but your commenters don't have to worry about that and it would be interesting to see what some of your heavy hitters might have to say - you should start a thread asking for their predictions every New Year.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.spaciousplanet.com/world/new/the-50-worst-predictions-of-all-time" rel="nofollow">http://www.spaciousplanet.com/world/new/the-50-worst-predictions-of-all-time</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-77046378643874593482013-01-01T20:00:36.110-08:002013-01-01T20:00:36.110-08:00I had predicted that after 9-11 New York companies...I had predicted that after 9-11 New York companies would disperse and relocate to corporate parks in communities from where their employees commute. I couldn't have been more wrong. I guess power lunches at Applebee's weren't that appealing. I'm not afraid to make predictions though - what do I have to lose?<br />I predict that assisted living and nursing homes will have a boom until about 2044.<br />I predict a decline in medical innovation. I use this site as a basis for this. It seems that smart people who comment here find medicine to be an icky job with declining prestige.<br />I predict that e-learning systems like ALEKS, which I learned about here, will be used at every level of education, but will not replace brick and mortar institutions because, as Paul Graham, whom I learned about here, says "face to face is very high bandwidth."<br />I predict that Hispanics will intermarry heavily with whites because Hispanics want to be taller and white people find tan people super attractive.<br />I predict that the ongoing minimalist/de-clutter/Feng Shui ascetic movement will continue along with its' cousin Artisan/Locavore trends.<br />Am I a fox or a Hedgehog?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-57954277143385660472013-01-01T19:03:19.239-08:002013-01-01T19:03:19.239-08:00Not sure how this study on predictive ability rela...Not sure how this study on predictive ability relates to rock'n'roll, if at all, which I doubt. The point that the big ideas are more important historically is probably true without irrelevant digression into pop culture. Can we think of any more relevant example? ...say, Marxism?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-6620675666354452362013-01-01T03:49:11.664-08:002013-01-01T03:49:11.664-08:00this is a song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jP...this is a song.<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPvt4PNGiEcAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-88044374945640467712013-01-01T03:39:05.478-08:002013-01-01T03:39:05.478-08:00Ramones phooey.
Much better:
http://www.youtube....Ramones phooey.<br /><br />Much better:<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0fQHSqoD9Q<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcwYEGdKto8Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-35655066936556191452013-01-01T03:21:10.691-08:002013-01-01T03:21:10.691-08:00P.S. Since you mentioned "Short People" ...P.S. Since you mentioned "Short People" - it also illustrates what I've said before, that no ironic message can be received 100% ironically. Same with liberals thinking they're laughing "at" Archie Bunker. Even the people who get the irony are receiving the message partly non-ironically.Aaron Grosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105500964362053569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-54297306863559279622013-01-01T03:17:26.567-08:002013-01-01T03:17:26.567-08:00"Short People" didn't make the same ..."Short People" didn't make the same mistake as "Rednecks." In "Short People," the speaker stayed in character. In "Rednecks," the first-person "redneck" speaker sounded like a smart-ass suburban Jewish songwriter writing about rednecks. "I'm a redneck and I'm real dumb," ha ha ha.<br /><br />"I'm a shock trooper in a stupor" is not something that would be said by the character in "Today Your Love, Tomorrow the World."Aaron Grosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105500964362053569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-71966226250499056572012-12-31T23:48:02.921-08:002012-12-31T23:48:02.921-08:00Can't get enough of the Ramones. Thanks, Anony...Can't get enough of the Ramones. Thanks, Anonymous, for posting the Christgau link. An "A" from him is pretty extraordinary. Straight-As on the first four albums - wow.<br /><br />By the way, the Ramones were required to change the first line of "Today Your Love, Tomorrow the World" for the album. You can see Joey sing the original on the 1975 link I posted: "I'm a Nazi, baby, I'm a Nazi, yes I am." I guess there were too many "Nazi"s in the first two lines. It got changed to "I'm a shock trooper in a stupor, yes I am"; which, when you think about it, is a really lousy line that almost ruins the whole song. The line is like Randy Newman's first-person song about rednecks - really stupid.Aaron Grosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105500964362053569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-15492243290562371452012-12-31T10:51:30.193-08:002012-12-31T10:51:30.193-08:00http://www.robertchristgau.com/get_artist.php?name...http://www.robertchristgau.com/get_artist.php?name=RamonesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-47634522954088059102012-12-31T10:50:44.882-08:002012-12-31T10:50:44.882-08:00I bought my first and only Ramones album in the mi...I bought my first and only Ramones album in the mid 80s after reading Robert Christgau and Dave Marsh. In the 70s, I was into stuff like Saturday Night Fever and Grease and radio hits, and I didn't even know punk existed. <br /><br />Rock critics said Ramones were good, so I got their first album(I think). Blitzkrieg Bop sounded like a sick joke. <br />I did enjoy 'beat on the brat with a baseball bat', but after side one, I thought I got the gist of it. Listening to more Ramones would have been like getting beat with a baseball bat. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-51350730250501757922012-12-31T10:47:47.377-08:002012-12-31T10:47:47.377-08:00"You make light-hearted jokes about Communist..."You make light-hearted jokes about Communists, but if someone did that about the Nazis...."<br /><br />Generally, it's okay if Jews make fun of Nazi stuff. Consider PRODUCERS by Mel Brooks. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-28120718280401058892012-12-31T10:45:51.708-08:002012-12-31T10:45:51.708-08:00Were the Beatles hedgehogs or foxes?
One could a...Were the Beatles hedgehogs or foxes? <br /><br />One could argue they were foxes since they had no single approach or style. They experimented with different things and jumped on different fashions. Beatles didn't come up with psychedelia but released the most popular and famous psychedelic album: Sgt Pepper. <br /><br />On the other hand, there was a single/dominant governing principle behind the Beatles: they would decide who they are, and they would wrote most of their own material, especially beginning in 1965. So, in that sense, they were different from Three Dog Night. There was a kinda 'purity' to being the Beatles, which is what set them apart from the Monkees and most British Invasion bands(like Herman's Hermits). Herman's Hermits couldn't progress beyond teenybopperism since that's all they were. Monkees had no control over their image and music. They were acts, not artists. <br />Beatles, though a popular band, did what they wanted to do. They followed their own bliss, and that became the new template for rock stars. Thus, they had a certain authenticity. <br />Even Elvis didn't have control over his image. Though a great star, he was often as not following other people's orders. Colonel Parker and the industry controlled him. But Brian Epstein never controlled the heart/art of the Beatles. Early on, Epstein did clean them up by putting them in three piece suits, de-greasing their hair, and making them bow to the audience, but Beatles really made themselves. They had the ability to grow and change, which is why they lasted as long as they did whereas most Brit Invasion bands--even a class act like Dave Clark Five--had a much shorter lifespan. <br /><br />That said, Beatles have been criticized by some as having been trend-followers than trend-setters(at least after Rubber Soul, up to which they seemed to be ahead of everyone). Brian Wilson was Sunshine and California from beginning to end. Stones were the bad boys of rock from beginning to end. Dylan was folk rock poet, a Jewish take on Americana. Led Zeppelin was hard rock. The Who were mod rebels. Neil Young was a white man as Injun. Grateful Dead was a--or the--hippie band. Pink Floyd were avant garde art rockers. Bowie was a weirdo. The Clash were anarchists. <br /><br />But what the Beatles really? What were they committed to? What was their governing principle beyond making their own music? This is why Beatles come across as both more and less than other great acts. In their versatility and comprehensiveness, they covered more ground. (Also, Beatles had four distinct personalities that didn't really gel but had wonderful chemistry. Lennon was the nasty boy, Paul was lover boy, Harrison was the dark horse mystic, and Ringo was the deadpan wit. In contrast, all of the Stones were bad boys and all of Floyd were far out experimenters.) But they never settled on one theme or image as Beatle-ness. And perhaps this is why they broke up in 1970 whereas Stones, Who, Floyd, and other major acts lasted much longer. Beatles could never agree or decide what they really were. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-86771030686162239722012-12-31T10:39:45.959-08:002012-12-31T10:39:45.959-08:00San Francisco's most popular pizza restaurant ...San Francisco's most popular pizza restaurant by far, even with younger types, is one that has those old-style coin jukeboxes at each booth. I was there last night, and there's nothing by the Ramones or 3DN, or the Stones, Zep, Who, Eagles, Cars, B-52's, P.J. or any of the other self-consciously hip acts. Instead, it's American Pie, NY-NY, Runaround Sue, Get Ready, Hit The Road Jack. When people really want to enjoy themselves and don't expect to be judged on their music consumption, it's power pop over all, and good for them. I'd punch Truth in the Nosenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2778875903712085142012-12-31T10:25:31.811-08:002012-12-31T10:25:31.811-08:00Up until the mid-80's, "one trick pony&qu...Up until the mid-80's, "one trick pony" was a generally known epithet, but since then it's hardly ever used. Does this mean hedgehogs now rule? not a hackernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-54196697883263325492012-12-31T09:26:53.956-08:002012-12-31T09:26:53.956-08:00One is the loneliest theory I've ever seen.One is the loneliest theory I've ever seen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-4618961826697164242012-12-31T07:04:30.141-08:002012-12-31T07:04:30.141-08:00it never fails, the one group that 'really mat...it never fails, the one group that 'really mattered' is one I've never once heard. were the ramones kind of a northeast hipster thing?carolnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61247987008531091012012-12-31T05:24:54.394-08:002012-12-31T05:24:54.394-08:00I'm not conflating chic and ironic joking. Rig...I'm not conflating chic and ironic joking. Right-wingers complain about double standards in both (and there's a lot of truth to the complaint, but it's exaggerated). "You make light-hearted jokes about Communists, but if someone did that about the Nazis...."<br /><br />Anyway, while "Today Your Love, Tomorrow the World" is obviously laughing <i>at</i> the "little German boy," "Blitzkrieg Bop" is ambiguous. It's ironic about the Nazis, but not necessarily against them.<br /><br />Re "Bonzo Goes to Bitburg," Johnny disliked the lyrics because they criticized "the greatest president ever." Reportedly, the Ramones compromised by keeping the lyrics and changing the title to "My Brain Is Hanging Upside Down."Aaron Grosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105500964362053569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-53809312179024323472012-12-31T01:24:49.305-08:002012-12-31T01:24:49.305-08:00Hedgehogs & foxes?
Wait...let me consult my O...<br />Hedgehogs & foxes?<br /><br />Wait...let me consult my Ouija board and Magic 8-Ball, and throw the Ching. They're about all I have left since that Oracle at Delphi took down her shingle - and that Criswell guy was no bargain. <br /><br />Oh, wait...anyone up for a little haruspicy? Just like going off the Fiscal Cliff Klavan, it'll require that we (except, of course, federal employees) sacrifice.Auntie Analoguenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-62101255330970219772012-12-30T23:58:29.403-08:002012-12-30T23:58:29.403-08:00Johnny Ramone was famously conservative and a Reag...Johnny Ramone was famously conservative and a Reaganite. "Punk is right wing", he said. <br /><br />Bonzo goes to Bitburg was a Joey and Dee Dee Ramone song.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-58634004423059880142012-12-30T23:46:58.785-08:002012-12-30T23:46:58.785-08:00The Ramones recorded a song protesting Reagan goin...The Ramones recorded a song protesting Reagan going to Bitburg, IIRC. "Bonzo goes to Bitburg?"<br /><br />Predictions are a fairly robust marketplace, but you will see them in hedge funds now mostly, bets with real big money on what will happen. Paulson made a lot on Subprime, then Gold, but lost on a Grexit. Sometimes you can lose by betting right too early.<br /><br />Foxes can often be too clever by half, in crowd-think or lacking the courage of their insight. Machiavelli felts a Prince had to to have sense of a fox to sniff out traps the courage of a Lion to fight enemies.<br /><br />I'd say guys who make money over the long term (excluding crony capitalists like Soros, Buffett, and Slim who use money to buy political favors to make more money) on bets on the future are both foxes (i.e. generalists) and hedgehogs (i.e. they have a deep understanding of cash flows, or the impact of new technology, or the ebb and flows of global trade and wealth shifts).<br /><br />For artists, I'd say the sweet spot is those who can adapt to changing tastes on the edges but remain the same. You can hear an Elton John song from the 1970's (Benny and the Jets, Rocketman) and the late 1990s (Candle in the Wind) and they sound similar, but exactly the same, and you can what the guy has added and taken away. Same with U2, Louis Armstrong, or Sinatra, or the Stones.Whiskeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01854764809682029464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-23956588441870083122012-12-30T23:34:01.437-08:002012-12-30T23:34:01.437-08:00Was Mitt Romney a hedgehog who lost by trying to p...<br />Was Mitt Romney a hedgehog who lost by trying to play the fox? Was Barack Obama a fox who succeeded at playing the hedgehog?<br /><br />What would a foxy hedgehog look like? Ann Coulter? Michelle Malkin? Let's hear your nominees, Sailermates!<br />Auntie Analoguenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-6052358814212339152012-12-30T23:04:01.740-08:002012-12-30T23:04:01.740-08:00Dee Dee Ramone's mom was a German war bride, s...Dee Dee Ramone's mom was a German war bride, so there was a lot of jokey German references in his lyrics.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-35375479304988024152012-12-30T23:01:38.524-08:002012-12-30T23:01:38.524-08:00The argument isn't about irony it's about ...The argument isn't about irony it's about support for said ideology. Way to change the goal posts. Leftist love camping it up on the Nazis. Not so much on the commies. You are mistakenly thinking that revolutionary chic is irony. It's not its chic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com