tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post4761020594175719254..comments2024-03-28T16:22:14.888-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Barry Is BackUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-37970006620028075482009-07-09T17:25:40.580-07:002009-07-09T17:25:40.580-07:00Barry - "I am happy to visit, but the commute...Barry - "I am happy to visit, but the commute is a bitch."<br /><br />Further evidence that for liberals, the wittiness of the response is more important than the accuracy. It's a great line, and I may use it myself. But it didn't apply to his place in the discussion.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-33744180406619443302009-07-08T17:11:50.024-07:002009-07-08T17:11:50.024-07:00Has Mr. Ritholz ever published any hard facts and ...<i>Has Mr. Ritholz ever published any hard facts and data about how much his firm has made by shorting real estate? Or is his money making ability a mere theory which has a veneer of plausibility</i>?<br /><br />And <i>that's</i> a goal!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-74080081018594432652009-07-08T16:17:23.961-07:002009-07-08T16:17:23.961-07:00... he seems to have made money for himself and h...<i>... he seems to have made money for himself and his clients shorting real estate stocks.<br /></i><br />How are we to know that for sure? <br /><br />Because Barry says so on his blog?<br /><br />Has Mr. Ritholz ever published any hard facts and data about how much his firm has made by shorting real estate? Or is his money making ability a mere theory which has a veneer of plausibility?David Davenportnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-5590306307712578532009-07-08T15:01:51.527-07:002009-07-08T15:01:51.527-07:00All of this talk of affirmative action and the mis...All of this talk of affirmative action and the misdirection of loans to minorities is actually proof that we could get the Mexicans out of the US if we wanted to. If jobs and loans can be directed to Latinos and illegals they can be directed away from them by the force of law as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-81947788823759830562009-07-08T11:52:55.883-07:002009-07-08T11:52:55.883-07:00josh asked --
""What probability would ...josh asked --<br /><br />"<i>"What probability would you give for the following statement being true: 'Promotion of 'diversity' was a major factor in causing the current recession.'?</i>"<br /><br />Steve Sailer has offered a logical and plausible set of theories as to how Diversity contributed to the residential real estate runup and deflation. He's offered specifics as to geography ("Sand States"), timing, and motives. For that matter, he's linked quotes from leaders of the Dems, Reps, Fed, GSEs, banks, and others--we've read of their motivations <i>in their own, contemporaneous words</i>! Sailer has also assembled--and linked--a plethora of statistics around real estate transactions, subprime and prime lending, mortgage delinquencies and default, and price changes. All support his narrative. It's an impressive poly-sci accomplishment.<br /><br />Barry Ritholtz has offered his opinion that "the CRA" did not contribute to the recession. He's nominated a set of other suspects, most or all of which are likely contributors to the financial crisis. Like other complex failures, the global crisis has multiple roots; this is (1) unsurprising and (2) not a rebuttal of Sailer's thesis.<br /><br />To my knowledge, Ritholtz has not put forward any theories, numbers, or statistics of his own as far as the (lack of) contribution of Diversity policies to the recession. He has not addressed or rebutted any facts, figures, or analyses of Sailer's.<br /><br />On the strength of the arguments aired to date, I'd put the probability that Diversity policies contributed significantly to the recession at well over 0.9.AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-8103641179279615372009-07-08T08:43:40.213-07:002009-07-08T08:43:40.213-07:00Dude's got a five page Amazon wish list. What...Dude's got a five page Amazon wish list. What's up with that? <br />http://www.amazon.com/gp/registry/PIBBI29EORHA?ie=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0Christopherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18300064299643040666noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-73182049153625055312009-07-08T07:20:08.173-07:002009-07-08T07:20:08.173-07:00Lucius Vorenus said...
The Role of Government Aff...Lucius Vorenus said...<br /><br />The Role of Government Affordable Housing Policy in Creating the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 <br />STAFF REPORT<br />U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES<br /><br />....awards game, set, match to the iSteve court point by point. Link above, worth reading, a synopsis of Steve's findings over the past year, especially section titled<br /><br />SPECIAL INTERESTS: THE RISE OF THE “AFFORDABLE” HOUSING<br />COALITION<br /><br /><br />"The nexus of political advocates of affordable housing, non-bank mortgage lenders like<br />Countrywide, the homebuilding industry, and Wall Street firms came together to create a<br />powerful affordable housing coalition led by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and their<br />congressional allies. This group of vested interests used its money, power and influence<br />to protect its political prerogatives and profits, blocking repeated attempts at reform and<br />distorting the relationship between government and business."Pat Shuffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-72514587866385305992009-07-08T06:46:28.242-07:002009-07-08T06:46:28.242-07:00Ritholtz is simply wrong about the value of number...Ritholtz is simply wrong about the value of numbers. Without theory, statistics are worse than useless. Steve's got a theory. On the surface its cogent. It is consistent with any set of numbers you can dig up. The dismissive attitude is over the top.<br /><br />Obviously Ritholtz doesn't really require "numbers" for all of his beliefs (although at the instance he writes these things, he no doubt thinks he does). Take something like evolution. None of us believe in evolution because of "numbers, but rather because it is completely reasonable. I think Mencius Moldbug said something like "Logic doesn't work because its scientific, science works because its logical." Ritholtz probably doesn't realize the mental leeway he allows himself by applying different standards of evidence for different topics. We all do it. Probably we would be better off if we could do the bayesian thing and settle on a "p".<br /><br />So Mr. Ritholz, Steve, would you each be willing to give a number? What probability would you give for the following statement being true: "Promotion of "diversity" was a major factor in causing the current recession."joshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-27609680689011460022009-07-08T06:03:42.074-07:002009-07-08T06:03:42.074-07:00barry is indeed one of the few who foresaw the hou...barry is indeed one of the few who foresaw the housing crisis and people who followed his advice did very well. He is above Nouriel Roubini because Roubini is a moron who keeps predicting the end of the world since he got his PhD. People actually got money from Barry´s advicebgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-60207818747719278182009-07-08T05:23:22.348-07:002009-07-08T05:23:22.348-07:00CJ wrote --
"Ritholtz was bearish on both st...CJ wrote --<br /><br />"<i>Ritholtz was bearish on both stocks and real estate when most of the other finance pump-and-dumpers were saying this time it's different...</i>"<br /><br />CJ, that's a perceptive set of observations on Ritholtz. I concur (FWIW). He's been one of the good guys; it makes little sense to tar him an enabler of Wall Street's business-as-usual. <br /><br />Sailer's <i>statistics-packed</i> root-cause analysis of the residential real-estate market's inflation and collapse is spot-on. Too bad Rithotz's dogma blinds him to that. However--alas!--the financial crisis extends well beyond toxic mortgage-backed securities. Anyone who supposes that the global recession is largely explained by SWPL Diversity groupthink in the U.S. isn't paying attention. <br /><br />In that regard, Sailer's Pearl Harbor analogy is a good one.AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-65990493624320947652009-07-07T23:50:38.603-07:002009-07-07T23:50:38.603-07:00Ritholtz was bearish on both stocks and real estat...Ritholtz was bearish on both stocks and real estate when most of the other finance pump-and-dumpers were saying this time it's different, get in before you're priced out, yadda. Reading his blog was one of the things that convinced me to get completely out of stocks in the spring of 2008. That was one hell of a break for me personally, so it's tough to hold much against the guy.<br /><br />Barry has also been very consistently outspoken about the deep-seated outrageous fraud perpetrated by so many on Wall Street in recent years. This sharply distinguishes him from hack pump-and-dumpers like Jim Cramer and can't make him too popular in a lot of circles -- like for instance the ridiculously compromised financial media. One of the factors that IMO led Barry Ritholtz to knee-jerk against criticism of the CRA et al is that he thought it was distracting attention from the real villains of the crooked FIRE economy. Well, that and the fact that he is from New York and today's northeastern financial sector is crawling with Ivy League liberals.<br /><br />It's unfortunately true that the comment sections of Ritholtz's website The Big Picture has become a sort of liberal nest, but by N.Y. standards Barry R. is not a liberal. When he criticizes deregulation he's talking about the SEC and other examples of regulatory capture. He holds that you simply can't leave it to financial interests to regulate themselves. Considering the disastrous results of recent non-regulation of reinsurance, derivatives, and ratings agencies, it's hard to disagree. He's also been consistently against the TARP, the giveaways to the zombie banks, and the rest of that whole catastrophe. He may be guilty of being a prisoner of a New York mindset and of rushing to judgement about Steve's work, but he's not at all guilty of being a toe tag liberal or a con artist.<br /><br />One thing BR and SS can agree on is that they both despise George W. Bush. For Steve, it's mostly because of "Invade the World/Invite the World" while for Barry it's because of Greenspan and Paulson and everything they represent. The irony of it all is that they're both largely right.CJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-28740894600820383282009-07-07T21:09:37.334-07:002009-07-07T21:09:37.334-07:00BR is right not to take up a fight he can't wi...BR is right not to take up a fight he can't win, but in another sense he has a good point.<br /><br />Whatever his methods, he seems to have made money for himself and his clients shorting real estate stocks.<br /><br />That's all the standard of truth such people care about.Bobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-71508047506972156422009-07-07T20:54:16.480-07:002009-07-07T20:54:16.480-07:00Stevie Franchise....man I wish I thought of that.....Stevie Franchise....man I wish I thought of that....and I could have- it was there for the taking. One concern- Steve Francis was all flash, zero substance whereas Steve Sailer, well, the opposite of course (although I heard he drives a Trans Am). <br /><br />BJ Double had it right- poor form from Ritholz... BJ Double is a great name as well, damn this blog is taking off- I was here first- I want posterity to remember that whether it is true or not<br /><br />Reading the Corner recently- basically just look for Derb's posts....how can so many conservatives have so little interesting to say....but Derb tries to sneak Steve in as often as he can. That is all.mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15560748812217517307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-23394200858393281552009-07-07T20:43:29.366-07:002009-07-07T20:43:29.366-07:00The Fannie and Freddie debacle: An autopsy
By Mic...<b>The Fannie and Freddie debacle: An autopsy</b> <br />By Michelle Malkin<br />July 7, 2009 09:57 AM<br /><a href="http://michellemalkin.com/2009/07/07/the-fannie-and-freddie-debacle-an-autopsy/#comments" rel="nofollow">michellemalkin.com</a> <br /><br /><b>Republican report puts blame for housing on Fannie, Freddie</b> <br />By Susan Crabtree<br />Posted: 07/06/09 06:55 PM [ET]<br /><a href="http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/republican-report-puts-blame-for-housing-on-fannie-freddie-2009-07-06.html" rel="nofollow">thehill.com</a> <br /><br /><b>The Role of Government Affordable Housing Policy in Creating the Global Financial Crisis of 2008</b> <br />STAFF REPORT<br />U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES<br />111TH CONGRESS<br />COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM<br />JULY 7, 2009<br /><a href="http://republicans.oversight.house.gov/media/pdfs/20090707HousingCrisisReport.pdf" rel="nofollow">20090707HousingCrisisReport.pdf</a>Lucius Vorenusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-77867393500979001082009-07-07T20:12:00.252-07:002009-07-07T20:12:00.252-07:00--Mine is data and numbers and statistics and fact...--Mine is data and numbers and statistics and facts.-- <br /><br />Facts! Barry is living in fantasy land. The investment world is not driven by facts anymore than Hollywood is driven by facts. To date, there is no reliable model for predicting stock performance. The bulk of the high-profit sectors of the investment community is based on the inflation of the money supply and government debt financing. Is anyone so stupid as to believe that so many can make so much without something nefarious going on? I bet Barry hasn't fully absorbed the plain fact: the financial profits of the past 10 years have been based, in large part, on stealing wealth and opportunity from future generations. <br /><br />When I was in undergraduate my father wanted me to pursue financial engineering. But just two minutes in a finance class is enough to reveal how soulless that industry is. You create nothing yet make tons of money. Only fraud can enable such a screwed up dynamic.zylonetnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61780184637814728222009-07-07T18:50:54.811-07:002009-07-07T18:50:54.811-07:00ritholtz is like every other financial blogger out...ritholtz is like every other financial blogger out there. bunch of links, bunch of summaries to other articles, not much unique or valuable content there unless you are a clueless schmo.<br /><br />not only does sailer have stats, he's also been on housing issues longer than anyone, and on the issues that matter. a real investor would appreciate sailer's content, vs ritholtz recycled middlebrow observations. <br /><br />looking forward and making prediction about the future is what markets, and investors are supposed to be good for.<br /><br />one could only wish that more people at the big banks read sailer. i'm sure they do too, if they're even aware it exists. funny thing is most of them might have blocked it as a "blog".<br /><br />i'm not sure that reading ritholtz actually tells you anything that unique about investing. same recycled stuff available everywhere else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-32933326253945429382009-07-07T18:45:36.566-07:002009-07-07T18:45:36.566-07:00Completely off topic, feel free not to post this c...Completely off topic, feel free not to post this comment Steve-o.<br /><br />Blatant self promotion here.<br /><br />If you don't post this, please write about Larry Franklin and the whole sordid affair - Thanks!<br /><br /><br />AIPAC treason trial - Larry's story:<br /><br />http://americangoy.blogspot.com/2009/07/aipac-treason-trial-larrys-story.htmlAmericanGoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00865892490752172185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-7096848552777521942009-07-07T18:12:00.884-07:002009-07-07T18:12:00.884-07:00Sure, you've totally outclassed me, but where ...Sure, you've totally outclassed me, but where is your investible thesis? <br /><br />This is known as moving the goalposts . . . very poor form.bjdoublenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-82029296181257419972009-07-07T17:26:01.007-07:002009-07-07T17:26:01.007-07:00"shot his wad"
Well I never! I thought t..."shot his wad"<br />Well I never! I thought this was a family friendly blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-87990822489043771642009-07-07T17:23:45.744-07:002009-07-07T17:23:45.744-07:00"Actionable" means "subject to or a..."Actionable" means "subject to or affording grounds for a lawsuit." It does not mean "something you can act on." The latter usage is a particularly ugly bit of bastardized English. If Mr Ritholtz is merely mimicking the business-speak of the people he writes about, then the word should be in quotations marks. If not, then he should have said "useful," "practical," or the like.<br /><br />It's bad enough to make up unnecessary new words, like "signage" or "operationalize." ("Signs" and "implement" are perfectly good existing words, the latter, ironically, having been a previous favorite in business jargon.) To take an existing word and give it an unnecessary new meaning that is completely different, almost opposite, in intent from the original is a sin against the language.steve woodnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-74026545989631231322009-07-07T17:16:05.098-07:002009-07-07T17:16:05.098-07:00I am happy to visit, but the commute is a bitch.
...<i>I am happy to visit, but the commute is a bitch.</i><br /><br />Traveling through the world of ideas is much easier when you're not riding a tricycle.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-20537636080858574382009-07-07T16:47:11.793-07:002009-07-07T16:47:11.793-07:00Go for the kill, Stevie Franchise. You were too s...Go for the kill, Stevie Franchise. You were too soft on Manzi. Attack, attack, attack. Stop being so damned principled.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-56844237973877830752009-07-07T16:44:04.097-07:002009-07-07T16:44:04.097-07:00Steve, you're closer to being right Ritholtz i...Steve, you're closer to being right Ritholtz is, but please try being less of a dick about it. You'll catch more flies with honey than vinegar, as they say. Thanks.rastnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-46236391429948247492009-07-07T16:37:21.147-07:002009-07-07T16:37:21.147-07:00Hey, Mr. Ritholtz: what numbers would you accept?...Hey, Mr. Ritholtz: what numbers would you accept? <br /><br />What numbers should we seek to examine in order to determine whether "Diversity" (that is, political interference in finance, prompting lenders to supply money to less credit-worthy borrowers chosen by skin color, ethnicity, and so-forth), that is, whether "Diversity" played a role in creating the conditions which produced the current depression (i.e., massive lending to speculators in a huge credit bubble, with concomitant waste of vast economic resources as market participants squandered ephemeral paper gains on luxuries)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-21350786893235472662009-07-07T16:24:00.912-07:002009-07-07T16:24:00.912-07:00It's time for equality.
End affirmative actio...It's time for equality.<br /><br />End affirmative action now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com