tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post7722193248761277631..comments2024-03-29T05:14:33.223-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: The Big Ten strategy to Electoral College victory in 2016-2020Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-43687619326379766872012-11-26T00:26:29.981-08:002012-11-26T00:26:29.981-08:00"2) The GOP will privately concede defeat in ..."2) The GOP will privately concede defeat in the culture war."<br />"will"?<br /><br />"3) Both tax increases on the parasitic rich in this country and Obamacare will be popular when implemented. We'll ask: "Why didn't we do this sooner!""<br />There is going to be egg on a lot of people's faces when the rich don't tax themselves yet again.<br /><br />"The Republicans need to realize that Southern whites have NOWHERE ELSE TO GO, and stop treating them like they're a swing group that has to be catered to and coddled." - They do realize that, which is why they put two damnedyankees on the ballot.<br /><br />"In the Midwest, white people are a swing group, that might vote for a Democrat or might vote for a Republican, depending on the issues and the candidate. They're the ones who decide national elections. Cater to them." - It was their steadfast support of 1% issues, not issues that play well in the south that sunk them in the midwest. The republicans as they are will not be making any significant changes to who they are, though local republicans(particularly in the south) will still do reasonably well for their people.<br /><br />"<br />You mean the Southern whites who stayed home and cost Romney Virginia and Florida and almost cost him North Carolina? Those Southern whites had a place to go." - It was the transplant areas that threw both to the democrat column.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-40678326286537237572012-11-22T15:29:28.820-08:002012-11-22T15:29:28.820-08:00"So how did Bush the Younger get elected twic..."So how did Bush the Younger get elected twice?"<br /><br />War patriotism wears out over time.Wandrinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-71936823734866464752012-11-22T15:26:29.794-08:002012-11-22T15:26:29.794-08:00"Basically, it boils down to the Republicans ..."Basically, it boils down to the Republicans dropping their anti-abortion (Northern whites are more lefty on social issues), anti-union (lots of unionized whites up North), and anti-tax-the-rich mentality (the rich tend to live on coasts)."<br /><br />The only reason they have to focus on social issues nationally is because they have to deflect people from their one-percenter economic policy.<br /><br />If the ditched the one-percenter economics then all the social issues stuff could be wrapped up in states rights - that way the different state parties can use it if it works in that state and not if it doesn't.<br />Wandrinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-17952531533224813262012-11-22T15:22:05.952-08:002012-11-22T15:22:05.952-08:00"He ran a nice campaign and lost."
I do..."He ran a nice campaign and lost."<br /><br />I don't think that's the biggest factor.<br /><br />There's an economic policy spectrum that runs from pro-labour at one end, pro big business and the 1% at the other end and pro small-business somewhere in the middle. Political parties all pick a point on that line as the centre-point of their economic policy from which all else flows. They can appeal to voters some distance in either direction from that centre-point.<br /><br />The national GOP elite are only interested in the 1% and all their policies revolve around the economic interests of the 1%. This is their biggest problem - race is only 2nd.<br /><br />If they shifted their economic centre-point to the pro small business spot on the economic spectrum they would still get all the voters up to the 1% plus find it a lot easier to delve down into the white bluecollar demographic.<br /><br />It's not difficult and the only thing stopping it is the donors want their own private little 1% party.<br />Wandrinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-29425895534734301102012-11-21T19:43:02.802-08:002012-11-21T19:43:02.802-08:00"Politics is the study of who hates who."...<i>"Politics is the study of who hates who." Can't remember who said that, maybe Ray Wolfinger.</i><br /><br />Carl Schmitt: <i> ... In 1927, Schmitt published the first version of his most famous work, The Concept of the Political, defending the view that all true politics is based on the distinction between friend and enemy.<br /><br />...<br /><br />... the criteria of friend and enemy define ‘the political’... </i>David Davenporthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03315090179595817174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-12883246553991552042012-11-21T17:34:09.907-08:002012-11-21T17:34:09.907-08:00Leave MN off the list of states the Republicans ca...Leave MN off the list of states the Republicans can win. As far as I remember, The Nixon landslide in '72 was the only time Republicans won MN.Tonynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-45392424236986034262012-11-21T16:44:47.001-08:002012-11-21T16:44:47.001-08:00Rev. Right,
"Give Reince Priebus that man...Rev. Right,<br /><br /><i>"Give Reince Priebus that man's number."</i><br /><br />We'll have to get Reince out of his <a href="http://www.theonion.com/articles/reince-priebus-forced-back-into-ancient-puzzle-box,29803/" rel="nofollow">puzzle box</a> first.DaveinHackensackhttp://www.thehackensack.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-85197688596050793842012-11-21T15:06:48.934-08:002012-11-21T15:06:48.934-08:00I once read a book by a Dem insider about why Reag...I once read a book by a Dem insider about why Reagan won in 1980. His conclusion was that it was about black crime, and that the most illustrative voting district was Macomb County, MI. I don't understand why the same factor wasn't dispositive this time in the states you mention. helene edwardsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-65046771737701783112012-11-21T15:04:24.760-08:002012-11-21T15:04:24.760-08:00"Politics is the study of who hates who."..."Politics is the study of who hates who." Can't remember who said that, maybe Ray Wolfinger. not a hackernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-81103778847194284152012-11-21T13:03:16.123-08:002012-11-21T13:03:16.123-08:00Bush beat Kerry in Ohio by 120K votes. By comparis...Bush beat Kerry in Ohio by 120K votes. By comparison, Obama beat Romney there by slightly over 100K. Obama's margins in VA and CO were also about 100K votes, and even less than that in FL, NV, and IA. If you think Bush's reelection was narrow, you have to recognize that Obama's was even narrower than that. Burying the Republican party is way premature.Galvani's Frog Dance Theatre's Orchestra Conductornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18340522487164582582012-11-21T09:49:30.893-08:002012-11-21T09:49:30.893-08:00A genuinely anti-war Republican candidate who wasn...<i>A genuinely anti-war Republican candidate who wasn't as completely insane as Ron Paul would easily pick off a lot of Democratic voters who normally hate Republicans, although he would also alienate most of the Republican base who are clamoring for war with Iran.</i><br /><br />If Ron Paul wasn't completely insane, he would have been swallowed up by mainstream politics. IMO, he needs to be more like Harry Browne (RIP), a man who Paul already greatly admired.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-64375267184525031162012-11-21T09:42:32.860-08:002012-11-21T09:42:32.860-08:00Dutch Boy said...
Can anyone say "white work...Dutch Boy said... <br /><i>Can anyone say "white working class?" You won't get enough of their votes with the outsourcing/anti-labor Republican economic philosophy (which is the real stupidity of the Republicans -bad economics leading to bad politics in a perfect souffle' of stupidity).</i><br />-------<br /><br />Especially since the white working class has been expressly abandoned by the Democratic Party. This has been a huge source of votes just sitting there that the Republicans have been too obtuse to grab.<br /><br />I think DaveinHackensack's idea above about tying immigration to the unemployment rate would be a brilliant way to attract white working class voters while at the same time legitimizing immigration restrictions as something other than racist. The Democrats would be stuck having to choose support for immigration over the interests of American workers, thus delivering Ohio, Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan to the Republicans.<br /><br />Give Reince Priebus that man's number.Rev. Righthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10165887113835960014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2909306827162481322012-11-21T07:59:25.638-08:002012-11-21T07:59:25.638-08:00Can anyone say "white working class?" Yo...Can anyone say "white working class?" You won't get enough of their votes with the outsourcing/anti-labor Republican economic philosophy (which is the real stupidity of the Republicans -bad economics leading to bad politics in a perfect souffle' of stupidity).Dutch Boyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02687679491743923216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80086884180666961752012-11-21T07:52:08.448-08:002012-11-21T07:52:08.448-08:00Bob Arctor said...
Huh? Neither "open borders...Bob Arctor said...<br /><i>Huh? Neither "open borders" (polls on immigration consistently show no significant gender difference) nor "reduced fertility</i><br /><br />Actually, the studies that I have been able to find consistently show that female voters are less likely to favor restrictive immgration policies than men. And hasn't achieving smaller families through access to birth control been a primary policy goal of most women's political organizations over the past century?<br /><br />Going the long away around, I don't think it is arguable that women as a group tend to be considerably more politcally liberal than men, and that liberal policies promote increased immigration from "diverse" cultures and less (and smaller) native families.<br /><br />The point was that females in general will vote more liberal than males, that that left-liberalism in countries has grown steadily in those countries once women achieve the right to vote, and that (in my opinion) left-liberal policies, while they can have positve benefits in the short term, are inimical to the long range survival prospects of a culture.<br /><br />There are no historical precedents for these developments, which means of course that the path taken by Western nations could be due to something completely else, and probably is due to a great number of factors, but in any event is hard to discern from the inside.<br /><br />Whether this progression of "progressivism" is inevitable in a democracy with universal suffrage is an interesting question. That's all.Rev. Righthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10165887113835960014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-21538619785963983412012-11-21T02:42:50.718-08:002012-11-21T02:42:50.718-08:00So how does a forthcoming nullification crisis fac...So how does a forthcoming nullification crisis factor into all this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-67654615452563410232012-11-21T02:28:37.175-08:002012-11-21T02:28:37.175-08:00"As I've noted here before, the NY Times ..."As I've noted here before, the NY Times headline writer screwed Romney."<br /><br />Romney was for bailing out AIG and the Big Banks and against bailing out GM and Chrysler. That's what killed him in the Midwest. That and refusing to attack illegal immigration and his trumpeting "Free trade" at every whistle stop.<br /><br />Talking about the NYT is just misdirection.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-27836761595781938412012-11-21T01:47:21.523-08:002012-11-21T01:47:21.523-08:00the republican will never win pennsylvania again.the republican will never win pennsylvania again.jodynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-46371244395778665002012-11-21T01:28:00.319-08:002012-11-21T01:28:00.319-08:00the election of 2016 won't matter. or any othe...the election of 2016 won't matter. or any other election, ever again.jodynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-53384261767675041902012-11-21T00:22:49.119-08:002012-11-21T00:22:49.119-08:00It's usually easier to get traction by hammeri...It's usually easier to get traction by hammering one or two key issues, rather than referring voters to your website for your x-point plan. And to compete, you need to offer something <i>different</i>. <br /><br />Why not pitch a <a href="http://www.idealtaxes.com/post3283.shtml" rel="nofollow">scaled tariff</a> and a freeze on immigration (with the exceptions for <a href="http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=b9930b89284a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCRD&vgnextchannel=b9930b89284a3210VgnVCM100000b92ca60aRCRD" rel="nofollow">O-1s</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EB-5_visa" rel="nofollow">E-B5s</a>) until the unemployment rate drops below 4%? Who's against having an unemployment rate below 4% (and why do they hate the unemployed!)?<br /><br />Just hammer that, and stop talking about abortion -- don't ape the Dems' abortion-on-demand position, just stop talking about it. <br /><br />It really shouldn't be hard for Republicans to hold Southern and Northern whites in the same coalition by focusing on economic issues. Democrats were able to keep blacks and Southern Segregationists in the same coalition for years by doing that.DaveinHackensackhttp://www.thehackensack.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-45949244753216822652012-11-21T00:22:20.419-08:002012-11-21T00:22:20.419-08:00"You mean the Southern whites who stayed home..."You mean the Southern whites who stayed home and cost Romney Virginia and Florida and almost cost him North Carolina? Those Southern whites had a place to go."<br /><br />You're falling for a myth. Republican turnout was not down. A day or two after the election when this talk started there were still about 10 million ballots yet to be counted.<br /><br />It takes weeks for all the late absentees and provisional ballots to be counted, and for the election results to be certified.<br /><br />In the states that have already finished counting, turnout was up from 2008.<br /><br />Republicans voted, and they voted in high numbers. White people in Mississippi aren't going to stay home and let blacks take over the state government just because the national Republican party nominates someone who has a chance of appealing to voters in the Midwest. They really don't have anywhere else to go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-54562409238394835442012-11-20T23:58:01.725-08:002012-11-20T23:58:01.725-08:00A genuinely anti-war Republican candidate who wasn...A genuinely anti-war Republican candidate who wasn't as completely insane as Ron Paul would easily pick off a lot of Democratic voters who normally hate Republicans, although he would also alienate most of the Republican base who are clamoring for war with Iran.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-79535918574468337462012-11-20T23:54:47.526-08:002012-11-20T23:54:47.526-08:00"That's why I've been explaining for ...<i>"That's why I've been explaining for ages that Romney committed political suicide with his "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" article"</i><br /><br />As I've noted here before, the NY Times headline writer screwed Romney. He could have made the title "How the Federal Government can help save Detroit" instead, and it would have been accurate. DaveinHackensackhttp://www.thehackensack.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-32090003698529897202012-11-20T23:15:30.315-08:002012-11-20T23:15:30.315-08:00"No chance. Winning by stoking latent racial ..."No chance. Winning by stoking latent racial animus is so 1968."<br /><br />It seems that the strategists on your side apparently rather vehemently disagree with you; they do it all the damn time and it works wonders for them.<br /><br />"And midwesterners love Hillary."<br /><br />Yes, so much so that she won only two of the six legally valid primaries there in 2008 (Ohio and Indiana), and both were fairly close wins.<br /><br />"There will be immigration reform and there will be no large scale revolt against it."<br /><br />The "immigration reform" attempt of 2007 was the only time in the last twenty-five plus years that the GOP activist base turned against the establishment Republican leadership. I see no reason why it would be any different just a few years later. <br /><br />In any case, good luck getting through 234 GOP House members, all of whom want to keep their jobs in 2014. Do you think 40-50 (assuming improbably few Democrat defectors) of those are going to willingly commit career suicide to support an Obama amnesty proposal? Keep dreaming, idiot.Bob Arctornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-27699291662393894322012-11-20T22:17:04.343-08:002012-11-20T22:17:04.343-08:00"Does universal suffrage lead inevitably to g..."Does universal suffrage lead inevitably to gynocracy? Does the predominance of female concerns(welfare state, open borders, reduced fertility) lead inevitably to the crumbling of a nation?"<br /><br /><i>Huh?</i> Neither "open borders" (polls on immigration <b>consistently</b> show no significant gender difference) nor "reduced fertility" (again, women overwhelmingly desire larger families than men) are "female concerns." Everyone here needs to stop listening to, and engaging with that liar Whiskey. <br /><br />In your defense, the part about the welfare state is absolutely correct, though the difference in opinion is nowhere as large as many here seem to believe.Bob Arctornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-44519952888666413962012-11-20T22:12:57.518-08:002012-11-20T22:12:57.518-08:00You make this so complicated when it isn't.
S...You make this so complicated when it isn't.<br /><br />States have a partisan lean from their ideological lean. These leans are stable unless something transformative happens in the electorate.<br /><br />As it so happens, the American electorate has been very stable since 1996. The only changes were West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri became solidly Republican while Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia became slightly Democratic. <br /><br />The targets here have the following Democratic leans:<br />PA&IA +1<br />MN&WI +2<br />MI +3<br /><br />A few other states have similar Democratic leans:<br />NH&CO +1<br />NV + 2<br />NM +3<br /><br />VA is even with no partisan lean<br />OH is Republican +1<br />FL is Republican +2<br />NC is Republican +3<br /><br />Three other states lean slightly Democrat:<br />OR +4<br />WA&ME +5<br /><br />Romney lost not because of anything about Hispanics or Asians or single women, but because he was not popular and failed nationwide to win the middle of the electorate.<br /><br />The ideological breakdown of the exit polls explain these states. Romney won states where the conservative part of the electorate exceeds the liberal part by 18% or more. In swing states, the conservative lean is as follows:<br /><br />IA +16<br />NM, OH & FL +13<br />WI & NV +11<br />CO & VA +7<br />NH, MN, PA, and WA +4<br /><br />OR has a 1% liberal lean and ME has a 2% liberal lean, but these states are relatively competitive because the Democratic party has only 36% and 32% of the electorate.<br /><br />Who the middle of the electorate is in these states is no mystery - whites who are mainline Protestant, irregular church-going Catholic, and non-religious, young single white men, male union members, divorced white women with kids, lower middle class whites, urban whites. Some smaller groups also pop up here and there - Arab Christians, married non-Muslim Asians, and married Hispanics self-identifying as white (especially native Hispanos in New Mexico but also white immigrants from Mexico, Brazil, Venezeula, Columbia, etc.).<br /><br />When you look at the red-blue maps at a precinct level, its the people who live in the light blue neighborhoods in large cities, inner suburbs, and small towns. If you can make those places a light reddish-pink, the Republicans will win. That is what Bush did in 2000 and 2004, and its what Republicans did in 2010 too.<br /><br />The other option is to find a specific subset electorate in these states and push it permanently Republican as in Appalachia and the Ozarks in 2000 by so that the states tip. The Republicans have been at this in Western and Northeastern PA and rural MN, especially in the Iron Range. This requires lots of local legwork and money, and usually only succeeds after the utter failure of the previous regime. In Pittsburgh, Richard Mellon Scaife is a guiding force behind the electoral movement to move the area Republican.<br /><br />The key to 2016 or 2020 is finding a candidate who can appeal to people in these states in this middle group. That person is not an elitist snob from MA, not a Cuban from Florida, or a good ole boy like Mike Huckabee. Nor anyone who has lost an election, like Rick Santorum. The ideal person would come from the most difficult of the states to win and is thus proven in the fire - Michigan. I.e., someone like John Engler or Rick Snyder. A weaker alternative might be Terry Branstad or Tim Pawlenty or John Kasich. This route is the direct appeal to the midwest, and does not attempt to reverse the bleeding out west.<br /><br />The alternative path is a western Americanized Mexican Governor - like Brian Sandoval or Susanna Martinez..Andrewnoreply@blogger.com