tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post7876189735706019841..comments2024-03-15T20:52:26.967-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: The Spanish Housing BubbleUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-89841614245356872122009-05-11T17:13:00.000-07:002009-05-11T17:13:00.000-07:00"A non-trivial number" makes a rather highly trivi..."A non-trivial number" makes a rather highly trivial point of argument; sort of like "alot" or "many."Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-51066602638787112022009-05-11T12:36:00.000-07:002009-05-11T12:36:00.000-07:00Truth:
A non-trivial number of mortgage defaulters...Truth:<br />A non-trivial number of mortgage defaulters were immigrants: particularly Hispanics (Ecuadorans and Colombians) and some Blacks.Proofreadernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-64031529232925123152009-05-11T03:42:00.000-07:002009-05-11T03:42:00.000-07:00The Spanish housing bubble may have something, not...The Spanish housing bubble may have something, not everything, but something, to do with the country's low fertility. If you have to spend your life canoodling your significant other in the town square (or <I>plaza</I> because you still live with your folks at thirty because you cant afford a place, then kids are unlikely.stari_momaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18416457751270996072009-05-10T22:30:00.000-07:002009-05-10T22:30:00.000-07:00"I guess it was the underclass blacks who caused t..."I guess it was the underclass blacks who caused the European housing crisis, huh?"<br /><br />Don't be silly, of course not!<br /><br />It was the Spanish bankers who re-wrote the rules for them sot that they could qualify for houses.Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61022917547922252712009-05-10T19:04:00.000-07:002009-05-10T19:04:00.000-07:00"That would mean that there are significantly more..."That would mean that there are significantly more young black Americans than young Spaniards in Spain."<br /><br />Is 22-34 (the optimal age for a basketball player) considered "young?"Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80142755796132801482009-05-10T16:50:00.000-07:002009-05-10T16:50:00.000-07:00Pardon my earlier mistake. "Loss" should have bee...Pardon my earlier mistake. "Loss" should have been "lost."DAJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68491277722736812072009-05-10T15:54:00.000-07:002009-05-10T15:54:00.000-07:00Why are some of you emanating with pride because t...Why are some of you emanating with pride because the Spanish basketball team, with probably the best squad it could muster, loss to an all-black U.S. team by eleven points in the title game and 37 points in qualifying play? Have you become that desperate? In my part of the world, no honor comes from double-digit losses.DAJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-40416056855135321632009-05-10T14:49:00.000-07:002009-05-10T14:49:00.000-07:00"Without rules, the game quickly becomes...meaning..."Without rules, the game quickly becomes...meaningless and purposeless"<br /><br />All games are meaningless and purposeless, that's why they're called "games" not "family" or "work."<br /><br />"[Which, by the way, is why no one watches the NBA anymore...]<br /><br />Yeah no one watches...except for the millions of people around the world who watch. Other than that, you're right sport.Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-52664701567205773542009-05-10T14:35:00.000-07:002009-05-10T14:35:00.000-07:00Truth:
Why, Spain has a larger population than Afr...Truth:<br /><I>Why, Spain has a larger population than African-America doesn't it?</I>Yes, by a few million, something like 45 million to 40 million. That would mean that there are significantly more young black Americans than young Spaniards in Spain.Sidewaysnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2870803316299522182009-05-10T12:11:00.000-07:002009-05-10T12:11:00.000-07:00I guess it was the underclass blacks who caused th...I guess it was the underclass blacks who caused the European housing crisis, huh?<br /><br />- Straw ManAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-53680471343935717592009-05-10T09:28:00.000-07:002009-05-10T09:28:00.000-07:00Okay, I realize this is kinduva tedious point to b...Okay, I realize this is kinduva tedious point to be making with a bunch of boneheads who still follow the [modern] NBA, but throwing out the rulebook is a form of nihilism.<br /><br />Without rules, the game quickly becomes random and meaningless and purposeless.<br /><br />[Which, by the way, is why no one watches the NBA anymore - or at least no one with an IQ above about 90.]Lucius Vorenusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-65256876150274386112009-05-10T06:38:00.000-07:002009-05-10T06:38:00.000-07:00Florida's housing bubble was, like everywhere, ver...Florida's housing bubble was, like everywhere, very speculator driven. Everyone was trying to flip a few houses. There's also few other outlets for blue collar labor other than home construction. High housing values in other parts of country also drove it; as people sold their homes in NY or Ohio, they moved here, and had more to spend.<br /><br />But look to the demographic aspect. It's worst in the Hispanic areas and, while we have relatively few Mexicans here, there has been a huge influx of Puerto Ricans from NY and the Island, particularly in the Osceola County are, which is the worst hit part of the Orlando metroplex. <br /><br />Also, our human capital is low and wages are very stagnant compared to California. This wasn't so bad when a couple folks working at Disney could get a house for $80K in the exurbs and afford it on $15/hour. But at $300K, not so much.<br /><br />The bubble was quite uneven, hitting hardest in areas with lots of Hispanics (Miami-Dade, OSceola, Deltona), entrepreneurial/speculating Jews and New Yorkers with beach property to play with (Ft. Myers, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm), and tending to bypass more rural and settled areas like Tallahassee, Gainesville, and Lake City.Roachhttp://www.mansizedtarget.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-33441407947833798822009-05-10T05:58:00.000-07:002009-05-10T05:58:00.000-07:00How much of this is just the basic pattern of a ho...How much of this is just the basic pattern of a housing bubble? It seems like an inevitable part of a housing bubble is the part at the end where people with little business buying a house manage to buy a terribly overpriced house someplace where hardly anyone would want one, except for the bubble-inflated prices. Bubbles run on the greater fool theory, and someone always has to be the last fool.none of the abovenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-66610504228182215362009-05-10T04:46:00.000-07:002009-05-10T04:46:00.000-07:00Well I'll be, Testing i haven't talked to you sinc...Well I'll be, Testing i haven't talked to you since i moved to Seattle. How are my old chums in boston. Are you still working at the post office? Hows Norm doing? its been so long.Dr. Frasier Crane MDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-5708664840401176562009-05-10T02:31:00.000-07:002009-05-10T02:31:00.000-07:00What happened in Spain was a perfect storm. Combin...What happened in Spain was a perfect storm. Combine low interest rates with a shortage of housing and you get a bubble the size of Gibraltar.<br /><br />True enough, part of the blame rests on Northern European retirees (there may be as many as 500, 000 German and British old geezers alone living in Spain) because they took part in the real State fever, along with many foreign investors/speculators.<br />But the boom was mostly fueled by youngish Spanish couples buying flats and houses at ridiculous prices, due to the shortage of housing in the cities.<br /><br />And here's where immigration enters the picture. Starting around the year 2000, thousand of foreigners started pouring in, mostly Romanians and Ecuadorans. Rental prices went up to the point where buying a house was actually cheaper than renting in the big cities (Madrid, Valencia, Barcelona). As I said, young Spaniards started to leave the cities for the "suburbs" (actually, the small commuter towns that surround the large cities), looking for affordable accommodation (with low interest rates) and to escape the flow of foreigners fast making life miserable for them, through alienation and rising crime.<br />In turn, the boom made those foreigners necessary to build the new houses. <br /><br />When interest rates went up, the party was over. Construction business went broke; immigrant - and Spanish- construction workers were no longer needed; and the banks started to feel the pain. For the banks were deeply involved in the bubble, with thousands of mortgages that turned out wrong and real state investments that went sour.<br /><br />You can well say that it's the Spanish version of the sub-prime crisis, including fishy underwriting and a large number of foreclosures, with immigrants in the lead.Proofreadernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-77346435236483917972009-05-10T01:10:00.000-07:002009-05-10T01:10:00.000-07:00I wonder what will happen to the black market econ...I wonder what will happen to the black market economy in Spain when there are no more cousins or uncles to work for? With Total Fertility at about 1.3, we'll soon find out.Antioco Dascalonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10617669156986603638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-24953273090917335112009-05-09T22:55:00.000-07:002009-05-09T22:55:00.000-07:00He went on to say that Spaniards can deal with har...<I>He went on to say that Spaniards can deal with hard times better than Americans can. So much of the economy is off the books in Spain in good times or bad that you can always get by by moving in with your relatives and doing unreported odd jobs for your uncle or cousin-in-law, even if you are officially broke. American nuclear families aren't as resilient, he felt.</I>Ah yes, the benefits of being Catholic. Well, at least I got my kids baptized, and I'll do my best for them when they need it.Billhttp://www.welmer.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-21335924011159387252009-05-09T21:24:00.000-07:002009-05-09T21:24:00.000-07:00Black Sea -- Yes. Nuff Said.
While Lucious Vorenu...Black Sea -- Yes. Nuff Said.<br /><br />While Lucious Vorenus and I rarely agree, he is 100% correct on Spain's fertility rates. Fertility in a prosperous, relative freedom for women society is an age old one. Both Greece and Rome, which afforded their women better treatment than the other antiquity cultures, grappled with it.<br /><br />It's pretty clear that having women be free or relatively free, good social positions generates a LOT of wealth, not the least of which is the most important job in the world, taking care of children, is done by loving mothers concerned about their kids. But it does have it's downside.<br /><br />As far as the TOTAL losees in real estate, the absolute dollar amounts are MUCH larger for the Iceland/Ireland/UK/France/Germany/Spain/Italy bubbles. That's just by OFFICIAL stats, IIRC (sorry no cite offhand). There's considerable sentiment that Europe had even more speculation than America.<br /><br />You have to recall (Steve is spot on about the Black Market off/books economy in Europe) that over-regulation leads to very few business opportunities. Flip that House was BIG in Europe, perhaps even bigger than here where entrepreneurial activities are easier.testing99noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-27618045461126774872009-05-09T20:35:00.000-07:002009-05-09T20:35:00.000-07:00Steve, why do you allow Lucius Vorenus to post his...<I>Steve, why do you allow Lucius Vorenus to post his tripe on basketball and "rulebooks" and not give others the allowance to rebut him in the type of language he understands?</I>I blame the nihilists.clemhttp://www.geoffreyfalk.com/blog/blog.aspnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-14350344624599733052009-05-09T20:15:00.000-07:002009-05-09T20:15:00.000-07:00OT, but I notice that today's most popular article...OT, but I notice that today's most popular article in the NY Times electronic edition is a travel article about Portland. It seems to me that every couple of months the Times does a story on the indefinable, ambient, eclectic, alternative something or other about Portland, and I'm not going looking for these articles; I'm just referring to the ones that, if you visit the Time's website, you can't help but notice. I'm sure there have been plenty of others that never made it onto my radar screen.<br /><br />So, what's the deal? Is Portland the new San Francisco, and if so, why should I care? Why is the Times focusing so intently on the ultimate SWPL city, that also just happens to be an almost entirely non-NAM city? Do Times readers secretly crave a West Coast habitat where they can indulge their sympathies for the world's downtrodden while being served omletes, muffins, and coffee by perky, 20 something blonde waitresses? Does Carlos Slim have investments in Portland?Black Seahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16347464061061628147noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-85491689870270883192009-05-09T19:17:00.000-07:002009-05-09T19:17:00.000-07:00Argentine friends of mine say something similar ha...Argentine friends of mine say something similar happens there whenever the economy collapses, which it does every couple of years. Folks move in with relatives and work on the large black market. They still have strong families. And after Peron wrecked the economy decades ago, nobody much expects prosperity to last long.John Seilerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03795977089953532965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18967614693546068042009-05-09T19:03:00.000-07:002009-05-09T19:03:00.000-07:00"Was there a big Northern Baby Boomer retiree aspe..."Was there a big Northern Baby Boomer retiree aspect to what happened in Florida?"<br /><br />A ton of northerners sold their homes and moved to Florida where the housing was cheap. A ton of wealthy South Americans also purchased homes in Miami-Dade. All of that aside, easy money from the Fed is more the culprit. It was just insanely easy for $10/hour workers to get $300,000 mortgages.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-19222896973087982532009-05-09T18:42:00.000-07:002009-05-09T18:42:00.000-07:00Steve, why do you allow Lucius Vorenus to post his...Steve, why do you allow Lucius Vorenus to post his tripe on basketball and "rulebooks" and not give others the allowance to rebut him in the type of language he understands?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41228466899160157612009-05-09T16:54:00.000-07:002009-05-09T16:54:00.000-07:00Has anyone seen any estimates of 1) the total loss...Has anyone seen any estimates of 1) the total losses and 2) the total unexpected losses, on the Spanish-Irish-London-Romanian housing bubbles, versus the American housing bubble? It seems to me that the US housing bubble could crater the world economy, while the others could not, due to 1) scale, and 2) the fact that the US was supposed to have a mature housing and housing finance market, where valuations and credit standards were supposed to be more reliable, in contrast to real estate markets in less mature economies.<br /><br />Meanwhile, The Washington Post has a story indicating that the banks' financial condition is not as bad as feared and may result in losses less than the funds already provided, while Fannie and Freddie are headed for losses perhaps in the $2-trillion range, never to be repaid. Fannie and Freddie were precisely the institutions that dove deeply into the US junk housing debt market in 2005 and 2006, the years a manageable problem turned into a global catastrophe.Henry Canadaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-87401887637627711662009-05-09T16:40:00.000-07:002009-05-09T16:40:00.000-07:00"A little off-topic, but, as regards the recent ba..."A little off-topic, but, as regards the recent basketball thread, this makes it all the more remarkable that a vanishing little backwater principality like Spain could even stay within striking distance of the Krzyzewski-coached NBA All Stars at the 2008 Olympics."<br /><br />Why, Spain has a larger population than African-America doesn't it?Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.com