tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post8100475568738923844..comments2024-03-28T16:22:14.888-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Quarterback statisticsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-28681083657344431372009-10-21T11:43:56.359-07:002009-10-21T11:43:56.359-07:00an important thing to know about quarterback ratin...an important thing to know about quarterback rating is that when the formula was written, it was designed so that the measured average came out to 80. yet over time, the measured average has been increasing. it is now around 85 or 86.<br /><br />so there is a flynn effect for quarterback rating. whether it is a real effect, or something else, is probably not something people will easily agree on. but my opinion is that it is a real effect. it seems obvious to me that the average NFL quarterback is dramatically better, at everything, than the average NFL quarterback only 20 years ago. football passed baseball as the number 1 sport in the US over 15 years ago. we're now at the point where both NFL football and NCAA football are bigger than MLB baseball.<br /><br />so if the defensive players and defensive schemes have also improved, then that means the improvement in throwing in the NFL has probably outpaced the improvement in pass defense. again, some people will argue that the improvement in measured rating is due entirely to restricting safeties and corners from mugging receivers and tight ends. but i'm not too confident that accounts for all of the difference. i think the throwing today is simply better. quarterback is the most highly selected job in american sports.<br /><br />but, the throwing is probably even better than that, because now there are 32 teams, instead of 24, as there were around the time the formula was devised. that's an additional 8 starter positions that have to be filled. so the 6 point improvement would probably be a 10 point improvement if the worst 8 starters were ignored. the talent pool of football throwers is REALLY deep today.<br /><br />there are other things to account for, like, with the modern NFL's near religious focus on speed above all else, there are now dozens of black receivers who are better at running fast in a straight line than they are at catching passes that hit them right in the hands. there are more dropped passes now than ever. in the last 2 games, the titans and browns receivers dropped literally every pass that connected. i've never seen receiver play that bad.jodynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-1779654912655721162009-10-21T07:39:58.383-07:002009-10-21T07:39:58.383-07:00@eh
Williams was a fine journeyman QB who was abl...@eh <br />Williams was a fine journeyman QB who was able to parlay his competence into a job with a pretty good team that executed excellently. He is famous for that one game and little else. But at the time I can only remember the media fellation at the fact he was a black guy playing QB. I also recall there was a famous question asked during the media day (something like, "What's it like to be a black QB?") that only led to some humorousness and further cemented in people's minds the cluelessness of the MiddleAgedWhiteSportsMedia. (MAWSM).DCThrowbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02595347138052680931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-15823106495133290012009-10-21T06:47:36.640-07:002009-10-21T06:47:36.640-07:00Williams, or Steve McNair, who came within 1.5 yar...Williams, or Steve McNair, who came within 1.5 yards of winning a Superbowl.Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-40572679087891440922009-10-21T06:46:00.672-07:002009-10-21T06:46:00.672-07:00"Sanders last year at FSU was 1988. Moss was ..."Sanders last year at FSU was 1988. Moss was there in 1995."<br /><br />My god you are right, you got me. The story is that Sanders came back as a pro and participated in spring drills. <br /><br />Good one chief.Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-42178412558049333772009-10-20T21:54:17.128-07:002009-10-20T21:54:17.128-07:00It's surprising that no one has mentioned Doug...<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Williams_(American_football)" rel="nofollow">It's surprising that no one has mentioned Doug Williams, the only black QB to win the Super Bowl.</a> He was named MVP of the game too.ehnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2269140399789251192009-10-20T20:58:08.792-07:002009-10-20T20:58:08.792-07:00Truth said:
". At the time, Bobby Bowden had...Truth said:<br /><br />". At the time, Bobby Bowden had Moss and Deon Sanders, maybe the two fastest guys ever in the NFL checking each other as 18 year olds..."<br /><br /><br />Sanders last year at FSU was 1988. Moss was there in 1995.<br /><br />But, what are facts, when you have Truth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-35609954682739603182009-10-20T19:28:35.461-07:002009-10-20T19:28:35.461-07:00Of course Orton is cerebral! He went to Purdue, i...Of course Orton is cerebral! He went to Purdue, is known informally as the "Neckbeard" and drinks Jack Daniels like a fish. Google "neckbeard, deadspin" and have yourself some good old laughs.<br /><br />Winner! Meanwhile, Jay Cutler only went to Vanderbilt. Josh McDaniel could tell right away that he was a total moron - all he had to do was look at those silly 'bama bangs.DCThrowbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02595347138052680931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-76987293216014873332009-10-20T17:38:29.191-07:002009-10-20T17:38:29.191-07:00"This statement displays such mind boggling i..."This statement displays such mind boggling ignorance about football that you should be banned permanently from posting here OneSTDV. I'm not kidding. That perhaps the single stupidest, most indefensible comment I've ever read here."<br /><br />If you look at OneSTDV's blog he is normally very clear headed, but when it comes to Brady he seems blinded by mindless prejudice. Also, surprisingly for a guy who named his blog after the 1 S.D. gap in IQ between blacks and whites, he seems to have a fetish for double-digit IQ black QBs like McNabb (Wonderlic 14/IQ 88). He thinks McNabb is one of the all time greats.<br /><br />"Notice the fans in Philly have never given McNabb as much slack as national sportswriters. Are the fans racist (Well, it is Philly...), or maybe they know something because they watch the team much closer than everyone else does?"<br /><br />As a Philadelphian, I can assure you that this is the case. McNabb can't read defenses, make adjustments, or consistently throw accurately over the middle. (And apparently, as we saw this weekend, keep track of how many timeouts he's called.) His whole career has been based on a great defense, an o-line that in most years gives him enough time to write a Tolstoy novel while dropping back, and has had great receiving RBs (Watters, Garner, Staley, Westbrok, etc.) over the course of his career that catch his little dink passes out of the backfield and make decent gains. He couldn't run an offense that featured a lot of down field passing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61750510671870653442009-10-20T16:10:51.564-07:002009-10-20T16:10:51.564-07:00Steve
WakeUp's tone is off-putting but he does...Steve<br />WakeUp's tone is off-putting but he does make a strong point. Sometimes, quants have a tendency to put too much faith in statistics. I think the best example of this would be the performance of Kyle Orton this season. Using any of the statistics that you cite in your post as a guide, an observer would have called Josh McDaniels crazy for choosing Orton over Cutler. However, Orton has exceeded everyone's expectations and looks like a solid Top 10 QB. That is not to say that Cutler would not have succeeded under McDaniels system but there is a tendency for quants to not appreciate that sometimes stats can be misleading when they are not considered within a specific context. According to McDaniels he could "sense" in the study of game film that Orton was a cerebral QB. Sometimes you have to beleive your lying eyes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-74956555337561405562009-10-20T14:35:34.860-07:002009-10-20T14:35:34.860-07:00@wakeup -
Please, add a less value added comment n...@wakeup -<br />Please, add a less value added comment next time. If statistical analysis is working, 95% of the time in confirms what you already know. In this case, Steve is looking for some way to measure the rankings of great QBs. In this case, he's done a pretty good job, especially for a non-sports site. Football Outsiders should probably do this, but I can understand their desire to not get too involved in the Limbaugh broo-ha-ha. I am sure the last thing Aaron Schatz wants to prove is Limbaugh was right, even though that day in the studio no one said a word about it because...it was pretty much the truth. Notice the fans in Philly have never given McNabb as much slack as national sportswriters. Are the fans racist (Well, it is Philly...), or maybe they know something because they watch the team much closer than everyone else does?<br /><br />@STDV & @Truth<br />You guys hit the nail on the head. If anything shows, truly, what a dysfunctional organization the Raiders are, it's acquiring the best WR in the game in Randy Moss and single-handedly making him disinterested in catching footballs...and then trading him to the best team in the league for a 4th round pick. Yikes. What makes the NFL so great, though, is the fact that Pats haven't won a Super Bowl going on 5 years. It's a tough thing to do - which is why winning 3 in 4 years is something to really be lauded.<br /><br />@Anon<br />Have to agree about Manning. There's a reason he's paid $32M/year. His professionalism and skill really makes the Colts a fun team to watch...year in and year out. Also, much props to the Colts GM, Bill Polian. Polian also built the Panthers '95 team that went to the NFC Championship (in only its 2nd year) and the Bills' squads that went to 4 Super Bowls. He acquires a competitive advantage and works like hell to surround it with cost effective talent in effort to be competitive every year. Truly one of the best.DCThrowbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02595347138052680931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-76584635402566420712009-10-20T14:26:17.706-07:002009-10-20T14:26:17.706-07:00"Steve, a pitcher who threw over 200innings i..."Steve, a pitcher who threw over 200innings in 7 different seasons cannot be called "fragile.""<br /><br />Well, barring a long string of 20 win seasons from now through age 42, Pedro Martinez isn't exactly Warren Spahn, now is he?Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-31521834486782930132009-10-20T12:17:12.317-07:002009-10-20T12:17:12.317-07:00I think the current players' domination of the...I think the current players' domination of the ANY/A list is due in part to the exclusion of QBs who had careers mostly before 1969 (like Bart Starr), when they started counting sacks, and also due to the short (incomplete) careers of a lot of those players. <br /><br />If you eliminate all the current players under the age of 30, then the lists are pretty balanced between active and retired players:<br /><br />ANY/A<br />1. Peyton Manning<br />2. Steve Young<br />3. Kurt Warner<br />4. Joe Montana<br /> Tom Brady<br />6. Dan Marino<br />7. Trent Green<br /> Jeff Garcia<br />8. Chad Pennington<br />9. Duante Culpepper<br /><br />The AY/A list, which includes pre-1969 careers:<br />1. Steve Young<br />2. Peyton Manning<br /> Kurt Warner<br />4. Joe Montana<br />5. Tom Brady<br />6. Trent Green<br />7. Duante Culpepper<br />8. Roger Staubach<br />9. Dan Marino<br />10. Chad Pennington<br /><br />Bart Starr would be at #11.<br /><br />We're still missing the real old-timers like Otto Graham; not sure why they aren't included on the list.Bob Montgomerynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-73634243892113489682009-10-20T09:32:46.682-07:002009-10-20T09:32:46.682-07:00Steve, a pitcher who threw over 200innings in 7 di...Steve, a pitcher who threw over 200innings in 7 different seasons cannot be called "fragile."not a hackernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-87938645572733522632009-10-20T09:16:53.011-07:002009-10-20T09:16:53.011-07:00QB Rating is just a single stat, third down conver...QB Rating is just a single stat, third down conversions are more likely to value a good QB performance in big games. Great article!.<br /><br />Can you please send me your ad rates for isteve.blogspot.com to angel{at}hstreetmedia.comUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04966007894333608933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80006701676778295612009-10-20T07:43:19.549-07:002009-10-20T07:43:19.549-07:00Let me be a second vote for Football Outsiders. I...Let me be a second vote for Football Outsiders. If you're interested in statistical analysis of football, it is a must-visit site.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-45868500351252188832009-10-20T07:15:08.265-07:002009-10-20T07:15:08.265-07:00I am sure this point has been made, but passing is...I am sure this point has been made, but passing is so critical in the modern NFL that a guy who can stand still, scan the field and hit the open receiver is much more valuable than a guy who can run. If we went back to 1970s rules, when winning teams would run three times or even six times as much as they threw, a running QB would be much more valuable. Obviously the Miami Dolphins could use one now.keypusherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07176947522040838625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-87043475589954572872009-10-20T07:06:36.583-07:002009-10-20T07:06:36.583-07:00Football outsiders, Steve. They've already co...Football outsiders, Steve. They've already considered all this stuff in far more detail.<br /><br />Barring that, go with YPA (yards per pass attempt), adjusted for sacks and turnovers.rastnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-25463663893836292682009-10-20T07:05:24.303-07:002009-10-20T07:05:24.303-07:00"Do top wide receivers like Randy Moss take b..."Do top wide receivers like Randy Moss take breathers on the sidelines enough to calculate on a play by play basis how much they individually add to the team?"<br /><br />No, that's what they hire agents for.<br /><br />"for the real world all that matters is resilient leadership under duress which produces victories that actually matter"<br /><br />Then I guess Trent Dilfer is a great QB.Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-84341950643960195892009-10-20T06:59:48.795-07:002009-10-20T06:59:48.795-07:00I don't think one can take anything away from ...I don't think one can take anything away from Brady, but one could say that Belicheck picked him for a reason and give credit to the system. Most stars will end up with a system built around them if one doesn't already exist, however.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-83798639673145647752009-10-20T05:18:45.647-07:002009-10-20T05:18:45.647-07:00"Bobby Bowden had Moss and Deon Sanders, mayb..."Bobby Bowden had Moss and Deon Sanders, maybe the two fastest guys ever in the NFL"<br /><br />Darrell Green and Bob Hayes disagree.joshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-30039999599190684212009-10-20T05:15:08.795-07:002009-10-20T05:15:08.795-07:00Steve,
Have you ever been to Footballoutsiders.co...Steve,<br /><br />Have you ever been to Footballoutsiders.com it is a sister site to Baseball Prospectus. They use play by play data to compare each offensive play to league average accounting for down, distance to first down, and position on the field. A quarterback is judged on plays when he drops back to pass; so this accounts for fumbles and rushing plays and it gives a weighting to yards, touchdowns, interceptions, etc. that actually has something to do with how important they are in winning a football game. They give the scores as both a rate stat, percentage above of or below average, and a total stat, yards above replacement. They even do adjusted rates and yards accounting for the quality of opposing defenses faced.<br /><br />It's the closest thing I've found to decent Sabermetrics for football.<br /><br />By the way, since 1999 Payton Manning has been the number one quarterback in the league 6 times , number two twice, and has never finished outside of the top five. He's probably the best of all time.joshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-71799184091634165512009-10-20T03:37:13.723-07:002009-10-20T03:37:13.723-07:00it's clear [Brady] had little part in much of ...<i>it's clear [Brady] had little part in much of those championship runs, especially his first year</i><br /><br />This statement displays such mind boggling ignorance about football that you should be banned permanently from posting here OneSTDV. I'm not kidding. That perhaps the single stupidest, most indefensible comment I've ever read here. On a par with the earth is flat or a duck is a fish. If I were your father I would disown you for making that comment in public.Peter Anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-76861761152507954952009-10-20T02:51:18.073-07:002009-10-20T02:51:18.073-07:00On a tangential note, seeing the name Daunte Culpe...On a tangential note, seeing the name Daunte Culpepper, pronouced "Dante Culpepper", reminds me that I'm getting slightly annoyed at the ridiculous spectacle of sports announcers having to present NAM athletes with misspelled names. Current examples include the Bears' Danieal Manning (pronounced, apparently, like "Danielle Manning") and a pitcher on the White Sox named Jhonny Nuñez, who is not the only "Jhonny" in the game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-8117317630703227052009-10-20T01:29:54.779-07:002009-10-20T01:29:54.779-07:00Speaking of statistics, or a lack thereof,...
Mor...Speaking of statistics, or a lack thereof,...<br /><br /><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4578563" rel="nofollow">More ghetto-like violence and dysfunctionality brought to a college campus via recruitment of players who, in many, many cases, have no business being there in the first place</a><br /><br />And what share of that, as well as the other missteps of high profile athletes we hear about all the time, is due to black players? <br /><br />Albeit this poor guy (such a sad, needless death) did not stab anyone. But 'being in the wrong place at the wrong time' seems to be a bigger problem for some people than for others. Hint hint.<br /><br /><i>...19-year-old Brian Parker of Sarasota, Fla., who also was stabbed but sustained minor injuries. The sophomore wide receiver, who is academically ineligible to play this season,...</i><br /><br />How tough is the course load of your average football player?<br /><br /><i>Howard's death was especially tragic, because he was about to become a father, Edsall said.</i><br /><br />About to become a father, with no visible means of support. How could there be while supposedly being a full-time student and football player? <br /><br />Yes, white QBs do, in general, seem to outperform black QBs. And, again generally, Whites seem more likely to possess the skill set that will lead them to become a QB. And Limbaugh was right: the media seems to ballyhoo the achievements of black QBs, probably in an attempt to compensate for all the above.<br /><br />And that gets some attention, i.e. the explicit race angle. <br /><br />But what seems to get no attention is the growing amount of violence and trouble on college campuses (and overall in sports), due predominantly to black athletes. Which you never hear stated openly.ehnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-11188009418819815122009-10-20T01:19:50.540-07:002009-10-20T01:19:50.540-07:00I have a bias in favor of large sample sizes as be...I have a bias in favor of large sample sizes as being more reliable than small sample sizes.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.com