tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post8621900089424120037..comments2024-03-28T16:22:14.888-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Why Asians vote Democratic (cont.)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger117125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-56299148297326538852012-12-03T16:06:08.959-08:002012-12-03T16:06:08.959-08:00"Social Issues combined with identity are hug..."Social Issues combined with identity are hugely turning off high IQ secular Asians. If the GOP moderates there is a chance to attract them."<br /><br />White Americans are in the process of being dispossessed through an act of betrayal of their ruling class.<br /><br />It makes no sense for any other ethnic group to ally with people who are unable to prevent their own stealth genocide.<br /><br />The Cubans will start to change sides for the same reason.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61927234019592621842012-12-02T12:07:23.575-08:002012-12-02T12:07:23.575-08:00Continued,
The reasons for this aren't hard t...Continued,<br /><br />The reasons for this aren't hard to understand. Asian countries have all attained high levels of education well before economic convergence. High education levels obviously facilitate the growth of skilled manufacturing and other high value-added industries. The underlying reasons for this may be a function of HBD or culture. However, the low levels of social capital in Latin America should not be ignored.<br /><br />"Other positive news is the decline of inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient over the last dozen years too. Still plenty of inequality, of course, but the trend is decidedly down."<br /><br />Probably true. However, inequality and growth don't appear to be particularly correlated (much to the disapointment of the left and right). I wouldn't expect any decline in inequality to trigger a growth spurt. Of course, growth might reduce inequality by expanding the middle-class (the Kuznets curve). However, it's not all that clear if the Kuznets model still applies.<br /><br />By the way, the TED data is good. I had never seen it before from the Conference Board. It was quite familar to me back in the Angus Maddison era. A caveat is that the TED folks are focused on TFP. TFP is very important for a country such as the U.S., but not all that relevant to developing nations.Skeptical Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068911900225517137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-49031305761867093912012-12-02T10:58:20.035-08:002012-12-02T10:58:20.035-08:00Continued,
However, the real substance of the iss...Continued,<br /><br />However, the real substance of the issue at hand is convergence. Convergence is not a 10 year or 20 year process. More like 30 to 50 years. It makes sense to look at per-capita GDP growth over long periods of time. Fortuneately FRED makes that easy.<br /><br />Latin American<br /><br />Argentina - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USARA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Belize - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USBZA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Bolivia - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USBOA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Brazil - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGDPUSBRA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Chile - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USCLA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Columbia - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USCOA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Costa Rica - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USCRA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />cuba - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USCUA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Ecuador - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USECA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />El Salvador - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USSVA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Guatemala - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USGTA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Honduras - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USHNA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Mexico - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USMXA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Peru - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USPEA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Uruguay - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USUYA621NUPN?cid=33109<br /><br /><br /><br />Asia<br /><br />China - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USCNA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Hong Kong - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USHKA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />India - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USINA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Indonesia - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USIDA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Japan - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USJPA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Korea - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USKRA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Malaysia - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USMYA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Singapore - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGDPUSSGA621NUPN?cid=33109<br />Taiwan - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USTWA621NUPN?cid=33109<br /><br />What does the data show? Pretty steady upwards trends in Asia and no long-term trend at all in Latin America. Notably, Central America appears to be doing significantly worse than the rest of Latin America. Some Latin American countries do show uptrends over the last 10 years. However, prior uptrends were closely tied to commodity prices (as is this one). When commodity prices stopped rising, growth collapsed.Skeptical Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068911900225517137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-6204414815425186002012-12-02T10:57:43.859-08:002012-12-02T10:57:43.859-08:00"Just for perspective, that's definitely ..."Just for perspective, that's definitely faster per capita growth than the US ever achieved during the 19th century (a sort of 'wonder era' in the minds of many a laissez faire votary)."<br /><br />No, not really. A quick check of Measuring Worth (http://www.measuringworth.com/index.php) shows many 10 year periods with 2+% growth in the 19th century. A few examples <br /><br />1880-1890 2.86%<br />1870-1880 3.095%<br />1850-1860 2.027%<br /><br />Notably 25 year per-capita GDP growth was 2.124% in 1890. In 1900 25 year per-capita GDP growth was 2.374%. An interesting note is that periods of high immigration appear to be associated with lower per-capita GDP growth an vice versa. Of course, correlation is not causation (Goldin disagrees).<br />Skeptical Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068911900225517137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-50858450033758698452012-12-02T06:12:29.254-08:002012-12-02T06:12:29.254-08:00Maxwell said: The fact is, alot of Chinese here a...Maxwell said: The fact is, alot of Chinese here are extremely loyal to the homeland and hypersensitive to the slights about it.<br /><br />Hunsdon responded: Sir, you are dangerously close to perpetuating the old anti-Sinitic canard of dual loyalty!Hunsdonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-78597714505723622332012-12-02T01:01:07.992-08:002012-12-02T01:01:07.992-08:00Skeptical,
2% per capita growth for Brazil is mor...Skeptical,<br /><br />2% per capita growth for Brazil is more encouraging than it appears at first glance. Just for perspective, that's definitely faster per capita growth than the US ever achieved during the 19th century (a sort of 'wonder era' in the minds of many a laissez faire votary).<br /><br /><i> I also looked at the 32 year per-capita GDP data. Mexico is 0.76%. Brazil is 0.91%. Three countries are actually negative over a 32 year period. The big negative one is Venezuela.</i><br /><br />True enough as a matter of brute statistical fact, but that timeframe includes the financial crises and the opening up of trade transitional difficulties. It's like evaluating the recent growth of eastern European economies without allowing for the breakdown and transition from communism. It's part of the economic record, to be sure, but it obscures at least as much as it reveals.<br /><br />Other positive news is the decline of inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient over the last dozen years too. Still plenty of inequality, of course, but the trend is decidedly down.Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-44322927326969791812012-12-01T21:33:19.708-08:002012-12-01T21:33:19.708-08:00in the free marketplace of ideas, the traditional ...<i>in the free marketplace of ideas, the traditional mode of American racism has been defeated. i see a lot of people angry because they miss (or idealize) the once 90%-white country. that was some 60 years ago. it's not coming back. idaho was once 1/3 chinese. you know what happened after. you would need a hardcore expulsionist policy to make things happen your way. and the demographics will change much faster than the culture would have to decay to allow that kind of thinking to gain wide acceptance.<br /><br />the restrictionist/expulsionist fringe has no party to advance that agenda because the rest of america is not interested in even considering it.</i><br /><br />That's an awful lot of typing just to say, "Fuck you!" You need an editor in the same way that you argue -- badly!ben tillmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-73316636410019068882012-12-01T18:59:28.311-08:002012-12-01T18:59:28.311-08:00in the free marketplace of ideas, the traditional ...in the free marketplace of ideas, the traditional mode of American racism has been defeated. i see a lot of people angry because they miss (or idealize) the once 90%-white country. that was some 60 years ago. it's not coming back. idaho was once 1/3 chinese. you know what happened after. you would need a hardcore expulsionist policy to make things happen your way. and the demographics will change much faster than the culture would have to decay to allow that kind of thinking to gain wide acceptance.<br /><br />the restrictionist/expulsionist fringe has no party to advance that agenda because the rest of america is not interested in even considering it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-55392016328617147172012-12-01T15:53:05.694-08:002012-12-01T15:53:05.694-08:00silver,
Checked the 2000-2012 data for the region...silver,<br /><br />Checked the 2000-2012 data for the region. Some of it is actually encouraging. Sadly, the two biggest economies (Brazil and Mexico) haven't done that well (2.18%, 0.66%) in per-capita growth. Argentina has the third largest economy and has enjoyed 3.4% growth in per-capita GDP. Columbia has the fourth largest economy and a per-capita growth rate of 2.99%. Venezuela is the fifth largest economy with a growth rate of 1.49%.<br /><br />Mexico is obviously the biggest disappointment in the group. <br /><br />I also looked at the 32 year per-capita GDP data. Mexico is 0.76%. Brazil is 0.91%. Three countries are actually negative over a 32 year period. The big negative one is Venezuela.Skeptical Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068911900225517137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-39584521890529126202012-12-01T11:08:00.435-08:002012-12-01T11:08:00.435-08:00Then maybe Sikhs should go to Canada. We don't...Then maybe Sikhs should go to Canada. We don't have the best of history with congressmen bringing weapons onto the floor anyways so from my way at looking at it no big loss. Of course it might cut down my chances of catching bed bugs from a Sikh owned hotel but somehow I'll get through it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-12955879209984514802012-12-01T09:58:14.117-08:002012-12-01T09:58:14.117-08:00"In Canada, a Sikh can run as Sikh and win a ..."In Canada, a Sikh can run as Sikh and win a Conservative seat" - In Canada there are enough Sikhs to make that possible, and they don't vote for non-Sikhs under any circumstances.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-65311166572980806882012-12-01T09:54:24.421-08:002012-12-01T09:54:24.421-08:00Anonmoustache:
Actually, there are two different ...Anonmoustache:<br /><br />Actually, there are two different things going on:<br /><br />a. At the level of states, richer states tend to be more Democratic.<br /><br />b. At the level of individual voters, richer voters tend to be more Republican.<br /><br />Andrew Gellman has a bunch of data on this stuff.NOTAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-10360548761728368882012-11-30T22:56:36.920-08:002012-11-30T22:56:36.920-08:00In other words, Mexico is not converging at any ap...<i>In other words, Mexico is not converging at any appreciable rate.</i><br /><br />Yeah, I know. I didn't say it was. At an appreciable rate or not, the point is the last 12 years has seen the reestablishment of the trend towards convergence. And once more, this is more pronounced elsewhere in L. America.<br /><br />Not that it should matter very much to anyone in those countries. Growth is what matters, not "convergence." As long as they're growing, whether they're "converging" or or not they're on the right track. It would be better for their sake if they were converging simply because it takes away a possible line of attack from the lunatic left (who use anything they get their hands on, as well all know).<br /><br /><i>Post a Email address and I will send you the spreadsheet.</i><br /><br />The IMF WEO data? I already have it. Check out the <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/" rel="nofollow">Total Economy Database</a> if you haven't already done so. The data is neatly arranged and goes back to 1950. Very handy reference.<br /><br />Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-57812305315693906532012-11-30T22:38:08.857-08:002012-11-30T22:38:08.857-08:00In Canada, a Sikh can run as Sikh and win a Conser...In Canada, a Sikh can run as Sikh and win a Conservative seat<br /><br />In the USA, a Sikh, has to convert to christianity before she can win the Republican primaryrec1manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08283145675242793064noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-66424099532076870332012-11-30T21:43:52.045-08:002012-11-30T21:43:52.045-08:00They can only be appealed to by the "R's&...<i> They can only be appealed to by the "R's" on money issues and even then low-income Asians and those who benefit from government spending will STILL vote "D".</i><br /><br />Republican voters = high income is a fallacy. Strange that you subscribe to it.<br /><br />The Blue States are wealthier than the Red States. The most Republican region, Appalachia, is the poorest and most dependent on govt region, while very heavily Democrat Silicon Valley is the most entrepreneurial and among the wealthiest. Of the 10 wealthiest counties 8 voted Democrat.<br /><br />The correlation that stands is race: the great majority of whites voted Republican while the great majority of non-whites voted Democrat. It is as simple as that. <br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymoustachenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-24772973442317612812012-11-30T21:06:08.283-08:002012-11-30T21:06:08.283-08:00"The fact is, alot of Chinese here are extrem..."The fact is, alot of Chinese here are extremely loyal to the homeland and hypersensitive to the slights about it."<br /><br />I just heard an argument to cut Asian immigration!Cornnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-65875347764421450012012-11-30T19:39:27.439-08:002012-11-30T19:39:27.439-08:00The fact is, Romney pissed off the Asian community...The fact is, Romney pissed off the Asian community by smacking around China in his campaigning with talks about confronting China on currency manipulation, etc.<br /><br />The fact is, alot of Chinese here are extremely loyal to the homeland and hypersensitive to the slights about it. Add to that the other reasons discussed about being academic, urban, copying white liberals, etc and you have the making for a group that is going to vote strongly Dem. But does it really matter? 100+ comments about it, and the real problem is that nearly half of whites voted Dem. Sailer is right, unify whites and you win. Even if 100% of Asians vote Dem, they are only a small minority.Maxwellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-19568428209832304992012-11-30T19:27:13.831-08:002012-11-30T19:27:13.831-08:00silver,
"I was referring to L. America gener...silver,<br /><br />"I was referring to L. America generally, not just Mexico. But look at your own data more carefully. What happened between 2000 and 2010? You could dismiss it as noise, but when you consider supporting evidence across the rest of the region I think you'd agree that Mexico is a part in what is taking place. Ten years from now which do you believe more likely: will Mexico have narrowed the gap with the US or widened it? My money's definitely on the former"<br /><br />I checked the IMF WEO 2012 database (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/index.aspx)<br /><br />After I got past DSK's private stash of pictures (just kidding).<br /><br />Mexico's 2000-2010 growth rate was 1.63%. Per-capita growth was 0.25%. That's a bit unfair because of the crash of 20008.<br /><br />The 2000-2012 growth rate was 2.0% with per-capita growth of 0.66%. In other words, Mexico is not converging at any appreciable rate.<br /><br />Post a Email address and I will send you the spreadsheet. <br /><br />As for the future, who knows? Will the U.S. economy ever revive? I have my doubts. Will Mexico embrace the hard left? Eventually Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will probably be elected. Will he be a pragmatic rules ala Lula da Silva or a Chavez?<br /><br />A modest note in this context is that Mexico's oil production is falling. Not a fast as some people think. But it is falling. Declining oil production is likely to be a (modest) brake on growth. Of course, China is a much greater problem.Skeptical Economisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04068911900225517137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-38841529390989990042012-11-30T19:15:46.896-08:002012-11-30T19:15:46.896-08:00The two parties need to find an outreach strategy ...The two parties need to find an outreach strategy to appeal more to Zumba MomsFuture Headlines of 2014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-4710752769841597102012-11-30T18:20:16.228-08:002012-11-30T18:20:16.228-08:00BTW, I've seen assimilation among Asians DECLI...<i>BTW, I've seen assimilation among Asians DECLINE massively in the last 15 years. Example: at work Asians used to use "Anglo" first names Joe/Sam/George. Its only when you knew them they reveled their "real" first name "Hyun" "Mei" etc.</i><br /><br />If the trend you've noticed is real (and I have little trouble believing it is) it doesn't <i>necessarily</i> reflect a lesser desire to assimilate. It just means that they're acculturating to the "new normal": the leftarded, vulgarized, degenerate anti-white culture of the early 21st west. <br /><br />Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-67558183451148236742012-11-30T18:14:42.768-08:002012-11-30T18:14:42.768-08:00Nice theory (seriously). However, there is nothing...<i>Nice theory (seriously). However, there is nothing in the Mexico data to support it. See http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PGD2USMXA621NUPN?cid=33109</i><br /><br />I was referring to L. America generally, not just Mexico. But look at your own data more carefully. What happened between 2000 and 2010? You could dismiss it as noise, but when you consider supporting evidence across the rest of the region I think you'd agree that Mexico is a part in what is taking place. Ten years from now which do you believe more likely: will Mexico have narrowed the gap with the US or widened it? My money's definitely on the former.<br /><br />Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-84933856195025538102012-11-30T15:14:39.724-08:002012-11-30T15:14:39.724-08:00Anonymous said:
"In Canada, the Conservative...Anonymous said:<br /><br />"In Canada, the Conservative party is actually *more* popular with immigrants than non-immigrants<br /><br />I wouldn't go so far as to say that, but I have noticed that the Canadian Conservative party attracts far more immigrants and minorities than its American Republican equivalent. The Conservatives are also less involved with the Religious Right than the Republicans."<br /><br />Doesn't Canada get a far better off financially immigrant than the United States as a result of their immigration policy?sunbeamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16540822135478202229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68944052747051037502012-11-30T13:12:49.836-08:002012-11-30T13:12:49.836-08:00Other than desperate nerds obsessed with Asian chi...Other than desperate nerds obsessed with Asian chicks(for mostly naive reasons), why does anyone care about this?<br /><br />Asians are a small minority mostly concentrated in states where the GOP is not even competitive. They could not possibly have made a difference in the outcome of the last election, or any Federal elections, so it is weird that so much energy is being spent on this subject. It is socially interesting, I suppose, but not politically important.bleachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-19652064421159691982012-11-30T12:46:06.689-08:002012-11-30T12:46:06.689-08:00"here are plenty of reasons not to like Obama..."here are plenty of reasons not to like Obama, but you haven't mentioned any of those--instead, you seem to be repeating the kind of empty propaganda that only appeals to the true believers on your own side. Not only does that mean you won't convince anyone not already on yur side, it also means you won't understand anyone nor already on your side."<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzfY-aXGcBY" rel="nofollow">jody,...</a><br /><br /><br />Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-45913467446320841632012-11-30T11:37:02.782-08:002012-11-30T11:37:02.782-08:00In Canada, the Conservative party is actually *mor...<i>In Canada, the Conservative party is actually *more* popular with immigrants than non-immigrants</i><br /><br />I wouldn't go so far as to say that, but I have noticed that the Canadian Conservative party attracts far more immigrants and minorities than its American Republican equivalent. The Conservatives are also less involved with the Religious Right than the Republicans.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com