tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post8694740352547240550..comments2024-03-28T16:22:14.888-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Contingency PlansUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-86709157598143062362011-03-27T20:06:57.826-07:002011-03-27T20:06:57.826-07:00Reg Caesar - learn some actual linguistics rather ...Reg Caesar - learn some actual linguistics rather than 8th-grade grammar textbooks before you make such comments. And develop a sense of humor, or at least playfulness about language while you're at it.<br /><br />As to emergencies: In the military especially, they take the general attitude that you will not rise to the occasion, but revert to the level of your training.Assistant Village Idiothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01978011985085795099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-37529438646734239492011-03-27T01:22:56.571-07:002011-03-27T01:22:56.571-07:00http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0LRJvYcMCc
Japane...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0LRJvYcMCc<br /><br />Japanese form of corruption. I read Japanese baseball is pretty corrupt too, with referees pretty much being owned by the, well, owners.Elbracnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-32301264409721386152011-03-25T14:30:14.496-07:002011-03-25T14:30:14.496-07:00Nanonymous, thanks for checking my math on the ris...Nanonymous, thanks for checking my math on the risk of I-131 in Tokyo tapwater.<br /><br />The article I referenced stated that the dose-response curve was linear, so I used that assumption. As you point out, there is some evidence that low exposures to ionizing radiation are proportionately less harmful, or not harmful at all (the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hormesis" rel="nofollow">hormesis</a> hypothesis).<br /><br />It's also worth pointing out that thyroid cancer has a very high cure rate. And that studies of thyroid abnormalities after Chernobyl are confounded by the effect of clinicans paying careful attention to something they usually don't think about much. Do they find things because I-131 exposure caused it, or because some degree of "abnormalities" is often present but usually overlooked?<br /><br />These factors mean that my lifetime risk estimate increase for thyroid cancer from I-131 exposure at Tokyo tapwater levels (0.90% raised to 1.04%) may be high. It seems unlikely to be low.<br /><br />Yet nobody in the media seems to have had a combination of numeracy and interest, and looked at the issue in these terms. <br /><br />Plenty of stories with terms like "tainted" and "contaminated" and "above safe levels", though.AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-37311915875317041062011-03-24T21:39:13.658-07:002011-03-24T21:39:13.658-07:00AMac, given the assumptions your calculations are ...AMac, given the assumptions your calculations are correct. Yet, the estimated risk is almost certainly wrong. The reason? <br /><br />The "I-131 vs thyroid cancer risk curve is linear" assumption is common but there is no empirical reason to believe it. The near linearity was observed in the range of doses much, much higher anything by ingesting nearly natural background radiation levels. Extrapolation down is merely a precaution, a worst case scenario. <br /><br />As a reference point, typical medical use of I-131 for image and radiotherapy involves doses of ~500 MBq. Although a single time, it is roughly 3,000,000 more decays than found in one liter of Tokyo water. The statistics of nuclear medicine shows no increased cancer incidents beyond pre-existing. <br /><br />As far as cancer goes, oral sex is far more riskier (HPV!) than all but extreme cases of radiation exposure.Nanonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-11906055257267470102011-03-24T20:22:47.730-07:002011-03-24T20:22:47.730-07:00My current pet theory is that people who have had ...<i>My current pet theory is that people who have had cancer or have known someone who has had cancer are more likely to panic over radiation.</i><br /><br />I tend to agree. And besides, other things than radiation cause cancer.<br /><br />Also the Baby Boomer generation has no shortage of "nucleophobia" thanks mostly to horror movies and Soviet anti-nuclear propaganda. (The Chernobyl accident was probably more effective at creating nucleophobia, than all the purposeful commie proganda.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-87307889234926335662011-03-24T18:47:03.607-07:002011-03-24T18:47:03.607-07:00Whiskey is right about the Germans. German officer...Whiskey is right about the Germans. German officers (and NCO's) were well-known for having more initiative than their opponents and they were actually expected to disobey orders if that was necessary to carry out a mission more effectively. When there was rigidity it was imposed by the political leadership.icrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-11281872516416473392011-03-24T17:47:09.544-07:002011-03-24T17:47:09.544-07:00The Japanese strategy after Midway, became to blee...The Japanese strategy after Midway, became to bleed America dry, with such huge losses of attrition that the democracy would sue to terms allowing Japan to keep some though not all of its conquests.<br /><br />Far from being disorganized and panic driven, the Japanese pursued this with horrific discipline, and it very nearly worked. Truman dropped the Atomic Bombs because of the bloodletting at Iwo and worse, Okinawa. Where about 22,000 US servicemen were killed, dozens of ships sunk, hundreds put out of service, etc.<br /><br />For their part, the junior men in Japan's military very nearly pulled off a coup to prevent surrender after Nagasaki, and "stick with the plan."Whiskeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01854764809682029464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-9960336866867874912011-03-24T17:42:41.311-07:002011-03-24T17:42:41.311-07:00"but today's word of too much radiation f..."but today's word of too much radiation for infants in the Tokyo water supply"<br /><br />is just another media false report. In fact it is all the media reporting which has been wrong. We need a new media, and a lot more skepticism.brucenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-89122976783228122502011-03-24T17:39:48.876-07:002011-03-24T17:39:48.876-07:00Bush did not ignore reality, his problem was his D...Bush did not ignore reality, his problem was his Defense Secretary was wedded to a concept of lighter, cheaper, quicker infantry forces that could be deployed rapidly (which was Bush tasked Rumsfeld to do before 9/11) and did not adjust. Many of Bush's top generals were of the same opinion, viewing Clinton's Iraq policy as a failure driven by US inability to act short of overwhelming firepower (basically a rejection completely of the Powell Doctrine).<br /><br />Bush did take a bold step of the Surge in Iraq with Petraeus. <br /><br />Nor were Germans at the Squad Level up to divisional levels disorganized. The German Army fought perhaps the most disciplined and blood-letting retreat in history. It was only the Reichsfuhrer and his top people who were a clown show. Same with the Japanese.Whiskeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01854764809682029464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80467046959574009322011-03-24T10:11:56.952-07:002011-03-24T10:11:56.952-07:00My current pet theory is that people who have had ...My current pet theory is that people who have had cancer or have known someone who has had cancer are more likely to panic over radiation.<br /><br />This is especially true for those who saw those SciFi movies of the fifties. Actually they still make post apocalyptic movies (The Book of Eli, The Road) but they don't push the mutant plots so much anymore.<br /><br />Everyone expected the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to be: (A) mutant monsters (B) tragically infertile (C) or short lived and sickly. None of that happened of course. The survivors seemed to live longer healthier lives with especially low cancer rates. <br /> <br />Few people seem to connect those Chilean miners caught under ground with nuclear power. All mining is dangerous but uranium mining requires fewer people under ground. That saves lives. It shouldn't be called "Clean Coal" but rather "Deadly Coal".<br /><br />My father in law died of Black Lung. Yet there isn't much media concern with the 42,000 Americans who go underground to dig coal. The comparative handful of underground uranium miners suffer from exposure to radon - the radioactive gas. But coal mining releases more radon than does uranium mining. <br /><br />Worried about radiation in the environment? Advocate for nuclear power and ban the burning of coal. <br /><br />All the really big and tragic industrial accidents have been chemical not not nuclear. The Bhopal insecticide plant disaster killed at least 3,000 people immediately whereas Chernobyl two years later had only about 30 immediate deaths. Yet somehow you get nearly ten times as many Google hits for "Chernobyl disaster" as for "Bhopal disaster".<br /><br />There have been no fatalities from the Fukushima incident.<br /><br />The public consciousness has been polluted with misinformation packaged as news and science.<br /><br />Worry about nuclear bombs. Don't worry about nuclear power plants.<br /><br />AlbertosaurusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-43416489660914020202011-03-24T08:18:12.523-07:002011-03-24T08:18:12.523-07:00Nor can you be sure that the relevant folks have m...Nor can you be sure that the relevant folks have made appropriate assumptions about potential emergencies or that they will tell the truth about what's really going on (the latter is a near impossibility!).Dutch Boyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02687679491743923216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-11741185922215341302011-03-24T08:03:43.192-07:002011-03-24T08:03:43.192-07:00Seattle is next.
I thought the Puget Sound would...<i>Seattle is next. </i><br /><br />I thought the Puget Sound would act to baffle a tsunami? Anyway it's Portland that's next, from the eruption of Mount Hood.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-20703714011035577122011-03-24T07:13:54.172-07:002011-03-24T07:13:54.172-07:00Re: Luke Lea's comment on radiation hysteria
...Re: Luke Lea's comment on radiation hysteria<br /><br />Relative risk and cost-benefit analysis continue to be absent from mainstream media accounts. The WSJ as much as NBC News. I doubt it's explicitly political or particularly American, even though this is the sort of ignorance that is as comfortable to the SWPL/NPR mindset as bedroom slippers.<br /><br />Today's headline is that Tokyo's tapwater is dangerously tainted with radioactive iodine.<br /><br />I couldn't find any before-and-after estimate of the risks of thyroid cancer. Which is telling in and of itself, for a story getting this much play. So I took a shot at calculating them, posted at <a href="http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/21/fukushima-open-discussion/#comment-120722" rel="nofollow">BraveNewClimate</a><br /><br />By my cocktail-napkin arithmetic, an infant drinking a half-liter of Tokyo tapwater a day for the next month (at the maximum reported I-131 levels) would have his or her lifetime thyroid cancer risk increased from 0.90% to 1.04%.<br /><br />Maybe somebody over there who is better-informed will offer a more accurate estimate.AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-67487501019263701082011-03-24T06:34:56.935-07:002011-03-24T06:34:56.935-07:00The fuel supplies of the emergency generators woul...The fuel supplies of the emergency generators would have to been elevated too. They also got washed out by the tsunamixxxxxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18246768256460425840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-19109557473768691922011-03-24T06:34:50.985-07:002011-03-24T06:34:50.985-07:00The fuel supplies of the emergency generators woul...The fuel supplies of the emergency generators would have to been elevated too. They also got washed out by the tsunamixxxxxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18246768256460425840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-70538668902972201092011-03-24T05:53:43.467-07:002011-03-24T05:53:43.467-07:00"Feelings of guilt"? Everyone knows Japa..."Feelings of guilt"? Everyone knows Japan is a shame culture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-75754362312009147772011-03-24T05:10:21.326-07:002011-03-24T05:10:21.326-07:00Jody is right about reluctance to admit they neede...Jody is right about reluctance to admit they needed help, and loss of face. Apparently after the explosions TEPCO wanted to pull all employees off site and basically walk away. The Japanese PM told them they couldn't, that it wasn't about TEPCO but about Japan as a nation.<br /><br />When they started dumping water by helicopter, and 90% of it missed, I think people suddenly realised (I certainly did) that they were pretty low on ideas. The following day the UK Guardian newspaper actually ran an open post <a href="http://ukcommentators.blogspot.com/2011/03/crowdsourcing.html" rel="nofollow">asking for reader suggestions</a> on getting water to the hot fuel pools. It may be a coincidence, but everything they're doing now was among the suggestions of the readers (US drone for hi-def video of damage - I think it flew from Guam, fire trucks/water cannon and long-reach concrete pumps for pond cooling).Labanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12031578024191117985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-72306334160802374262011-03-24T02:42:39.663-07:002011-03-24T02:42:39.663-07:00Luke Lea and Nanonymous are correct. I live in Tok...Luke Lea and Nanonymous are correct. I live in Tokyo and flew to New York last week and was horrified by the way the nuclear issue is being misreported by US media. The Japanese authorities have done a good job and their statements have been factual at nearly every step, and they have avoided the flight to hyperbole that Western news networks couldn't resist. <br /><br />Here's an example of spontaneous social organization amongst Japanese who were cut off from society at large (by Martin Fackler, probably the only trustworthy Western journalist when it comes to reporting on Japan):<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/world/asia/24isolated.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-89901155038732628902011-03-24T00:15:08.461-07:002011-03-24T00:15:08.461-07:00You are tough stuff and aren't all that shook ...<i>You are tough stuff and aren't all that shook up...</i><br /><br /><i>Shaken</i> up. <br /><br />When the smartest "public intellectuals" in the realm start talking like Elvis (or worse, like my cheesehead in-laws), civilization is not long for this land.Reg Cæsarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-89463842818095445962011-03-24T00:10:27.145-07:002011-03-24T00:10:27.145-07:00It's hard to see what's in front of your f...It's hard to see what's in front of your face. Poor planning at nuclear plants, dozens made ill. Towns, not parks, in tsunami susceptible areas: 20,000 dead. Seattle is next. <br />Robert HumeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-42536760870242700992011-03-23T21:56:44.625-07:002011-03-23T21:56:44.625-07:00I am with Luke Lea on this. Most things went exemp...I am with Luke Lea on this. Most things went exemplary well considering how badly Nature hit. <br /><br />Radiation thing from the get go was nothing but hysteria. Considering how extraordinary the quake and tsunami were, all nuclear plants performed very well (yes, including Fukishima; it could have been better but it's life - everything cannot be best at all times). Likewise, people performed generally very well, doing the right thing most of the time and limiting number of deaths. <br /><br />It's all about cost and benefit balance. Japanese could have built a wall 100 stories high and 1 mile thick if they wanted. They never wanted that, correctly. <br /><br />There will be lessons learned and incremental improvements made. Life goes on.Nanonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-53829088247867727302011-03-23T21:23:12.466-07:002011-03-23T21:23:12.466-07:00I have to second Luke Lea here. The people who re...I have to second Luke Lea here. The people who really fell down on the job were the Western journalists who inadequately described the situation in a manner that was sensationalist and likely to inspire fear in a populace that is largely ignorant of the nature of ionizing radiation and how it applies in the context of Fukushima.The Reluctant Apostatehttp://reluctant.apostate@gmail.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-1575160483912468872011-03-23T19:32:51.629-07:002011-03-23T19:32:51.629-07:00half a million dollars stolen from wrecked bank va...half a million dollars stolen from wrecked bank vault. <br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/22/japan-tsunami-shinkin-bank-robbery_n_839152.html<br /><br />wonder what the bank's plan was for "totally destroyed vault door and no security guards present".jodynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61214182071216100712011-03-23T19:05:54.941-07:002011-03-23T19:05:54.941-07:00http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487034...http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703410604576216293024644156.html?mod=googlenews_wsj<br /><br />FREE BEER!! Even Japanese cannot resist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-51721682062272884792011-03-23T19:03:41.188-07:002011-03-23T19:03:41.188-07:00http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/jap...http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-in/8395153/Japan-earthquake-Looting-reported-by-desperate-survivors.html<br /><br />Japan earthquake: Looting reported by desperate survivors <br />Isolated incidents of looting have been reported as survivors of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami become increasingly desperate. <br /><br /><br />-------------<br /><br />This was bound to happen. Hungry people will even resort to cannibalism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com