tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post206031764382737050..comments2024-03-27T18:24:19.683-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Is your state adding value?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-58728901376629971482010-04-07T09:32:42.180-07:002010-04-07T09:32:42.180-07:00This study is bogus. The standard error due to sa...This study is bogus. The standard error due to sampling is too large to permit ranking the states on NAEP scores. For a discussion see:<br /><br />http://pareonline.net/genpare.asp?wh=4&abt=stonebergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-89577269216919216612010-03-27T23:31:36.491-07:002010-03-27T23:31:36.491-07:00[Jody said] by the way, i read an amazing number y...<i>[Jody said] by the way, i read an amazing number yesterday. in 1982, only 4 people scored a 1600 SAT. i don't recall the exact figure, but i remember something like 23 people scored 1600 in 1994. so there was already a lot of improvement at the top in only 12 years. this jives with my academic experience. the smartest kids are getting smarter, but the average kid is getting dumber. Both trends are running concurrently.</i><br /><br />Jody, the SAT was dumbed down several times over the past 30 years, including the 1982-1994 period. That's why there are more perfect scores now. You now don't have to answer every question correctly on either the math or verbal tests to get the 800 score, whereas previously you did.<br /><br />Anecdotally, however, I agree with your overall point. Stratification of the social classes is more pronounced today; when I was a high school student in the late 1960s, social classes appeared to be converging as widespread quality education pulled kids up. Nowadays it appears that schools pull nobody up except for elite kids going to elite schools.CJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-5816234054712408222010-03-27T15:51:52.434-07:002010-03-27T15:51:52.434-07:00jody said...
look at that huge -20 math drop for ...jody said...<br /><br />look at that huge -20 math drop for michigan between 4th grade and 8th grade. could that be due to white flight out of the state following the collapse of the auto industry there?<br /><br />----------- Not necessarily. What was the pattern in Michigan before this drop? Between 2000 and 2005 for example Michigan's white population only dropped by about 2%, hardly a dramatic example of "white flight." <br />http://www.census.gov/popest/states/asrh/tables/SC-EST2005-03-26.csv<br /><br />Today Michigan still remains about 80% white. Interestingly enough, a large proportion of those are the much touted "Nordic" whites from German, Irish, and Britain. Yet overall these "pace setters" have produced unimpressive performance according to your data above.<br /><br />Jody:<br />by the way, i read an amazing number yesterday. in 1982, only 4 people scored a 1600 SAT. i don't recall the exact figure, but i remember something like 23 people scored 1600 in 1994. so there was already a lot of improvement at the top in only 12 years. this jives with my academic experience. the smartest kids are getting smarter, but the average kid is getting dumber. Both trends are running concurrently.<br /><br />-------- Doesn't necessarily jive with your theory. If the top scores went up so much between 1982 and 1994 then you have an upward trend, and far from the smarter getting smarter, it could just as well mean that the more average kids were getting into the top ranks. The low end has shown some increases too over the same rough time period. For example, Black students' Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores climbed 17 points from 1987-1996, according to the College Board. You have to demonstrate that AVERAGE kids showed a DROP between 1982 and 1994 in SAT's for your theory to make sense, if not, well, it is just "jive."Too Tall Jonesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-29709132550919325842010-03-26T11:17:53.908-07:002010-03-26T11:17:53.908-07:00I've been staring at that table looking for an...I've been staring at that table looking for an original insight and I don't have any yet. But what I'm thinking about between that and the comments is whether public schooling is even salvageable. You've got to have an education degree to teach, and education faculties have their own orthodoxy. Teacher's unions have a monopoly on employment. Setting aside test scores and graduation rates, the really important measure is percentage of attendees who achieve functional literacy and numeracy. If literacy and numeracy is lower in the public schools than in open-admission parochial schools and home-schoolers, than the only sure reform is to opt out personally, and encourage others to opt out generally.Dave R.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-78846063338497655462010-03-26T11:04:50.188-07:002010-03-26T11:04:50.188-07:00These state metrics are pretty meaningless too giv...<i>These state metrics are pretty meaningless too given the gross inequality in specific schools quality and talent for student bodies within states. People send their kids to specific schools in particular school districts whose nature is rarely captured by state-wide metrics.</i><br /><br />Yes and no. If quality is determined at the level of districts or individual schools, there's still no necessary reason for that finer-grained quality to be evenly and randomly distributed among the states. Perhaps state laws, regulations and politics set the range of variance among schools. State rankings at least give us a place to start looking.<br /><br /><i>I'd be more interested in a more fine-grained and meaningful analysis.</i><br /><br />I, too, demand more and better free ice cream! Really you're right, but the commentariat is hardly providing Steve with a salary and a staff to go do one.Dave R.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-69510150683995561362010-03-26T06:27:44.915-07:002010-03-26T06:27:44.915-07:00Why is DC broken out in these studies?
It makes n...Why is DC broken out in these studies?<br /><br />It makes no sense to compare one of the wealthiest white urban enclaves in the world with entire states. <br /><br />These state metrics are pretty meaningless too given the gross inequality in specific schools quality and talent for student bodies within states. People send their kids to specific schools in particular school districts whose nature is rarely captured by state-wide metrics.<br /><br />I'd be more interested in a more fine-grained and meaningful analysis.Arnie Duncannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-35870374288690900392010-03-25T18:17:41.859-07:002010-03-25T18:17:41.859-07:00"Smart parents read to their kids, and have a..."Smart parents read to their kids, and have a fair number of quality books on the book shelves.<br /><br />Really smart parents have games and books that improve math scores, as well."<br /><br />In addition to the fad Everyday Math curriculum my kid gets at school, we have her doing Singapore Math at home 40 minutes a night. Although Michelle Malkin seems to hate the EM because of its PC cache I think it's actually good at getting kids to use their brains. The times tables and basics I reinforce with flashcards just in case. There is no one ideal math curriculum -- they all sorta work if your kid is average smart or above. But in the early years, parents should sit down with their kids every night and keep restating the basic material in every way they can think of until their child responds.<br /><br />But that's half the fun of being a parent -- getting a do-over of elementary school and figuring out how you should have studied.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-35403006310187653592010-03-25T17:37:10.794-07:002010-03-25T17:37:10.794-07:00No, there's not much difference between white ...No, there's not much difference between white boys and girls but the feminists have bitchec about it for years. The pc test givers solved that problem by changeing the test. That was my only point. The blacks come out a standard deviation below whites. Whites, slightly below east Asians. The blacks are a hopeless mental underclass and always will be. Do you really think bussing and Head Start made any difference. Liberal wishful thinking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-6199467478374040282010-03-25T17:13:46.395-07:002010-03-25T17:13:46.395-07:00"The reason that math scores have changed and..."The reason that math scores have changed and narrowed over the past couple of decades is that the tests were changed. The old tests were aimed at abstract reasoning. Girls and blacks don't do so well. The new tests are aimed a computation. Girls do better at rote computation than abstract reasoning. See that's not so hard."<br /><br />Why would you lump (white) girls and blacks in the same category? The differences between "abstract reasoning" pr math-related abilities in males and females of the same race are rather small and inconsequential when you compare them with another race. Females tend to score better in verbal categories than males, but so what? And there are more males concentrated on both the lower and higher end of the bell curve too....The difference between the average white male and average white female isn't really that staggering. In fact at my high school (graduated 2 years ago) 16 students in my graduating class scored above a 30 on the ACT...out of that 16, only 5 were male (although to be fair the two highest scores, 36 and 35 were both from guys)...And don't claim that the girls only did better because of the reading/english sections...in order to receive that high of a score (at least a 30) one has to do pretty decent (at least 26 and up) in the combined math/science sections too, even if those scores may be slightly lower than the reading/english scores.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-23707248103783063392010-03-25T15:09:19.670-07:002010-03-25T15:09:19.670-07:00I'm assuming that these statistics are for pub...I'm assuming that these statistics are for public schools only. Could different states have different levels of private school enrollment due to the presence of coloreds?<br /><br />If the smarter Whites in a state check out of the public school system, wouldn't that drag down a state's ranking?<br /><br />Since these scores are for non-Hispanic Whites, shouldn't we post the nHW IQ score for each state next to the value added scores to see what kind of mental material the schools are working with when they "add value"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-67953113974960415352010-03-25T14:49:22.781-07:002010-03-25T14:49:22.781-07:00au contraire, mon frère?au <a href="http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/freedom-learn/201003/when-less-is-more-the-case-teaching-less-math-in-schools" rel="nofollow">contraire</a>, mon frère?pzednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-21425886182744431472010-03-25T14:45:58.508-07:002010-03-25T14:45:58.508-07:00The reason that math scores have changed and narro...<i>The reason that math scores have changed and narrowed over the past couple of decades is that the tests were changed. The old tests were aimed at abstract reasoning. Girls and blacks don't do so well. The new tests are aimed a computation. Girls do better at rote computation than abstract reasoning. See that's not so hard.</i> <br /><br /><b>TZZZSSSSSSS...</b> <br /><br />That's the sound of the air being let out of the tires on this bus.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-48540558076173085332010-03-25T14:23:36.025-07:002010-03-25T14:23:36.025-07:00" Girls do better at rote computation than ab..." Girls do better at rote computation than abstract reasoning." Thank you, Mr Summers.deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-60696511350056501612010-03-25T13:40:43.701-07:002010-03-25T13:40:43.701-07:00The reason that math scores have changed and narro...The reason that math scores have changed and narrowed over the past couple of decades is that the tests were changed. The old tests were aimed at abstract reasoning. Girls and blacks don't do so well. The new tests are aimed a computation. Girls do better at rote computation than abstract reasoning. See that's not so hard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-50326255996333002162010-03-25T13:21:37.094-07:002010-03-25T13:21:37.094-07:00I know my (Nation) State isn't adding any valu...I know my (Nation) State isn't adding any value. Heck, it's even deducing value from me.<br /><br /><br />JTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61211977781339187762010-03-25T13:16:43.916-07:002010-03-25T13:16:43.916-07:00If you just want to measure the effectiveness of t...If you just want to measure the effectiveness of the schools, you should find the mean student IQ and compare it to the mean achievement. Whoever has the most favorable comparison of IQ to achievement is doing the best they can with the hand they have been dealt.<br /><br />This is how they do the scoring in bridge tournaments. Each hand is evaluated and your score is a measure of how well you do with what you are given.read ithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631238731651674916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-66126021652350264582010-03-25T13:07:01.427-07:002010-03-25T13:07:01.427-07:00liberalbiorealism says:
"Wouldn't it be ...liberalbiorealism says:<br /><br />"Wouldn't it be vastly more useful to compare changes not in rank but in, say, mean state scores as measured in SD from the national mean? In certain regions of the curve, a significant change in rank might be a trivial change in underlying state mean as measured in SDs from the national mean. Likewise, in certain regions of the curve, an appreciable change in SD might not be reflected (or not much) in a change in rank."<br /><br />Right. In the middle of the range, it's easy to hurdle a lot of states in the rankings with modest changes in absolute scores. At the left and right edges of the bell curve of states, it's harder to change rank. For example, you'd have to work pretty hard at being bad to dislodge West Virginia from last place among whites.<br /><br />On the other hand, state rank is a "grabbier" statistic than standard deviations, and I wanted the meaning of the Change and Difference columns to be readily apparent from the raw ranking columns.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-2057349714923033802010-03-25T13:00:28.023-07:002010-03-25T13:00:28.023-07:00Anonymous 1 says:
" It would be easy (wel...Anonymous 1 says:<br /><br />" It would be easy (well, reasonably easy) to measure the effectiveness of Texas education vs. Mass education if all the grade level 5th grade math classes in Texas were doing exactly the same thing on the same day. But they're not. Hell, Mrs. Brown is probably doing something fairly different than Mrs. White, who is teaching a theoretically identical class next door."<br /><br />Anonymous 2 says:<br /><br />" You may have found some numbers, but they don't seem very useful. Given that the public schools all over the country are being taught by the same sorts of people using the same methods and under the same constraints of public law, it doesn't seem likely that any major differences would show up between states."<br /><br />Good points! Fundamentally contradictory, but good points!<br /><br />That's why it's useful to have real numbers, even if we don't what they mean yet. They generate hypotheses.<br /><br />Instead, the Obama Administration is handing out $5 billion in Race to the Top money to help stimulate the use of Value Added statistics, but almost nobody has ever seen Value Added statistics, so few have much experience thinking about them or noticing their complexities and imponderabilities.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-11628244995980831812010-03-25T12:55:58.436-07:002010-03-25T12:55:58.436-07:00Smart parents read to their kids, and have a fair ...Smart parents read to their kids, and have a fair number of quality books on the book shelves.<br /><br />Really smart parents have games and books that improve math scores, as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-88436985744234766252010-03-25T12:55:27.628-07:002010-03-25T12:55:27.628-07:00"Interesting ideas. However, the obvious prob..."Interesting ideas. However, the obvious problem with using the first of your metrics (the change in reading or math at the 4th and 8the grade level) as a value-added measurement is that a state which goes up in the ranking might just do an especially poor job with the 4th graders and an adequate job with the 8th graders."<br /><br />Right, which is a problem in general with the now-fashionable "value-added" approach. <br /><br />If I'm a school teacher and my salary is dependent upon my raising test scores for my 4th graders over what they scored in 3rd grade, do I want to get assigned the kids who had a good third grade teacher or a bad 3rd grade teacher? I don't know. If they had a bad 3rd grade teacher who depressed their 3rd grade scores below what they would have scored under an average 3rd grade teacher, I could make a lot of money just from regression toward the mean as they naturally catch up to where they would have been without the bad 3rd grade teacher. Or maybe a bad 3rd grade teacher has a long term effect and they depress their scores in 4th grade too. I could imagine how it could go either way.<br /><br />Anyway, that's why I put real numbers out there, because they stimulate more incisive thinking, like this comment, than just theorizing without actual data.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-25207521789041260692010-03-25T12:49:14.507-07:002010-03-25T12:49:14.507-07:00Right, the table looks at only non-Hispanic whites...Right, the table looks at only non-Hispanic whites to get a more apples-to-apples comparison across states.<br /><br />The race of students so completely dominates most educational achievement statistics that you have to filter out the effects of race somehow to get a chance of seeing the wispier effects of schools.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-69498733442267533982010-03-25T11:15:22.046-07:002010-03-25T11:15:22.046-07:00Wouldn't it be vastly more useful to compare c...Wouldn't it be vastly more useful to compare changes not in rank but in, say, mean state scores as measured in SD from the national mean? In certain regions of the curve, a significant change in rank might be a trivial change in underlying state mean as measured in SDs from the national mean. Likewise, in certain regions of the curve, an appreciable change in SD might not be reflected (or not much) in a change in rank.<br /><br />Alternatively, you might use changes in state mean percentiles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-8317121747071916712010-03-25T11:04:50.749-07:002010-03-25T11:04:50.749-07:00Steve,
Interesting ideas. However, the obvious p...Steve,<br /><br />Interesting ideas. However, the obvious problem with using the first of your metrics (the change in reading or math at the 4th and 8the grade level) as a value-added measurement is that a state which goes up in the ranking might just do an especially poor job with the 4th graders and an adequate job with the 8th graders. Sure, it still works for an intra-state comparison (the middle school teachers in X state are doing a better job than elementary teachers in X state where the rank rises significantly). Still, it's a starting point.<br /><br />Your other metric (comparing the difference between math and reading ranking) suffers from a similar potential problem. A big difference between math and reading rank might merely be an artifact of especially poor reading programs (though reading ability is probably less movable then math ability, educational quality still makes a difference). Thus a big difference in this rank could have more to do with poor reading programs compared to math programs rather than a state doing something particularly right with education in general.<br /><br />Excellent post though.Juan Riconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-26618541224874060872010-03-25T09:55:04.948-07:002010-03-25T09:55:04.948-07:00You may have found some numbers, but they don'...You may have found some numbers, but they don't seem very useful. Given that the public schools all over the country are being taught by the same sorts of people using the same methods and under the same constraints of public law, it doesn't seem likely that any major differences would show up between states.<br /><br />One thing which might be showing up in the statistics is the general economic health of a state. States in economic decline during the four years in question (the rust belt) might be suffering from a brain drain as the more educated classes seek greener pastures. States where the economy is growing might be benefiting from an influx of such people.<br /><br />One reason that Texas might be doing better is the robust health of the private school sector. (I assume that private schools are included in the data.) Most private schools in Texas are not elite schools geared toward academics, but religious schools. Even those with high academic standards do not seem to insist on rigid admission requirements. It seems to me that most parents when shopping for a suitable private school are pretty canny about selecting a school where their child will fit in both academically and socially. It is this parental selection that allows some grouping by ability which the public schools forbid. This gives me hope for the future. If political correctness destroys the public schools completely, a voucher program might quickly put things right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-25877078701995363452010-03-25T09:50:53.109-07:002010-03-25T09:50:53.109-07:00by the way, i read an amazing number yesterday. in...by the way, i read an amazing number yesterday. in 1982, only 4 people scored a 1600 SAT. i don't recall the exact figure, but i remember something like 23 people scored 1600 in 1994. so there was already a lot of improvement at the top in only 12 years.<br /><br />this jives with my academic experience. the smartest kids are getting smarter, but the average kid is getting dumber. both trends are running concurrently.jodynoreply@blogger.com