tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post2298442267095818044..comments2024-03-29T05:14:33.223-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Slippery slopes and boiling frogsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-63424363621759743482009-03-01T22:49:00.000-08:002009-03-01T22:49:00.000-08:00"You might start by finding a big [healthy, g..."You might start by finding a big [healthy, growing] evangelical church within driving distance, and then attending services & activities on a regular basis."<BR/><BR/>Or you and Svigor could take him out to the woods in Michigan somewhere, paint your faces and your bodies like Norsemen and pound drums and do some Iron John shit followed by some manly crying and affectionate brotherhood together, I hear that relieves a lot of cynicism.Truthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17286755693955361308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-91786273646406147402009-03-01T07:08:00.000-08:002009-03-01T07:08:00.000-08:00testing99: ...I can tell you from personal experie...<B>testing99:</B> <I>...I can tell you from personal experience that in 1995, during my MBA studies...</I><BR/><BR/>Good grief, T99 - no wonder you're so cynical about women [I would have never guessed that you were an MBA].<BR/><BR/>You need to get out and meet some chicks who aren't hyper-materialistic career-obsessed nihilists.<BR/><BR/>You might start by finding a big [healthy, growing] evangelical church within driving distance, and then attending services & activities on a regular basis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-67325444909220900762009-02-28T19:56:00.000-08:002009-02-28T19:56:00.000-08:00"...conservatives oppose gay marriage primarily du..."...conservatives oppose gay marriage primarily due to a "slippery slope" argument. The notion that if gay marriage is accepted, other improper forms of marriage will be codified such as polygamy, beastility, pedophilia,etc.<BR/><BR/>It seems you're disowning the idea of the actuality of a "slippery slope" (and I agree), but again, it seems to oppose your peers."<BR/><BR/>The difference is that legal precedent is a codification of the slippery slope. <BR/><BR/>In the gay marriage example, the isteve argument against, that men will shy away from marriage if it's seen as gay, will, by this reasoning take a generation or so to take hold.<BR/><BR/>The other arguments against, polygamy, etc., will take less time since some judge somewhere will decide that one requires the other.<BR/><BR/>-Steve JohnsonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-52445179701977759072009-02-28T07:15:00.000-08:002009-02-28T07:15:00.000-08:00Another place to look for the incentive-based slip...Another place to look for the incentive-based slippery slope is in the doctor-patient relationship, which has been horribly distorted by the incentives offered by medicare and insurance companies. (Procedures pay, thinking or answering questions does not; documentation trumps everything else in getting paid; some doctors have direct financial incentives to minimize expensive care, others have direct financial incentives to funnel you off to have an MRI or something done.) Those incentives have been resisted, to some extent, because of the existing culture of doctors. But over time, that culture is changing, and will continue to change. Eventually, we're likely to get the full consequences of these conflicts of interest for doctors. <BR/><BR/>This broader phenomenon is probably important in a lot of big policy mistakes--we screw up the incentives in some field, but the existing culture and practices and such in that field prevent those screwy incentives from leading to disaster right away. Instead, the response to incentives still happens, but more gradually. And that means it's much harder for policymakers and voters to connect the cause and the effect, which means we are often trying to fix the bad policy of ten years ago with a new bad policy, whose effects we won't know for another ten years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-6089636835705598672009-02-28T06:07:00.000-08:002009-02-28T06:07:00.000-08:00You over-rely on Google. I can tell you from perso...<I>You over-rely on Google. I can tell you from personal experience that in 1995, during my MBA studies, the conflict of interest was raised repeatedly in various classes, with textbooks and scholarly articles covering that agency problem. I.E. the bond-issuer's ratings being paid for and thus probably not worth much.</I><BR/><BR/>Steve's alleged over-reliance on Google is irrelevant to your redundant point -- Steve already stated that it took a "couple of decades" to become a problem (70s to '95 = "couple of decades," Testy).<BR/><BR/><I>That is the problem with Google, a lot of stuff never made it to the web, and was not indexed, until the late 1990's.</I><BR/><BR/>A point that Steve himself made a couple of weeks ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-86280342926053295162009-02-27T18:41:00.000-08:002009-02-27T18:41:00.000-08:00The analogy I like more than the slippery slope or...<I>The analogy I like more than the slippery slope or boiling frog is a metal bar - it's hard to bend it the first time, but each time afterwards gets a little easier, until the thing finally breaks.</I><BR/><BR/>Another analogy: a rubber band that we keep stretching a little more...then a little more...then a little more...then a LITTLE more....!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-81883392457566847972009-02-27T16:55:00.000-08:002009-02-27T16:55:00.000-08:00The analogy I like more than the slippery slope or...The analogy I like more than the slippery slope or boiling frog is a metal bar - it's hard to bend it the first time, but each time afterwards gets a little easier, until the thing finally breaks. <BR/><BR/>It's been less than eighty years - about one healthy American lifetime - since the government began allowing voters to spend their children's money in significant amounts. Since then, both gradually and due to different fiscal "emergencies," not only are we insolvent, but people who argue for fiscal restraint are regarded as kooks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-16508940304393862602009-02-27T13:58:00.000-08:002009-02-27T13:58:00.000-08:00Steve --You over-rely on Google. I can tell you fr...Steve --<BR/><BR/>You over-rely on Google. I can tell you from personal experience that in 1995, during my MBA studies, the conflict of interest was raised repeatedly in various classes, with textbooks and scholarly articles covering that agency problem. I.E. the bond-issuer's ratings being paid for and thus probably not worth much.<BR/><BR/>I recall an article in Business Week in 1994 on that subject as well.<BR/><BR/>That is the problem with Google, a lot of stuff never made it to the web, and was not indexed, until the late 1990's. It gives you a false picture.<BR/><BR/>Heck I knew a classmate who worked for Moodys and griped about the very same thing. This was no secret.<BR/><BR/>EVERYONE knew it. They just pretended not to.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-77775421446243752152009-02-27T12:14:00.000-08:002009-02-27T12:14:00.000-08:00Unskilled wage versus Inflation ....Oops! That re...<I>Unskilled wage versus Inflation ....</I><BR/><BR/>Oops! That reply should have been posted in <A HREF="http://isteve.blogspot.com/2009/02/obamas-budget-will-solve-problem-of.html" REL="nofollow">Obama's budget will solve problem of rich getting richer.</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41392271713255984642009-02-27T12:07:00.000-08:002009-02-27T12:07:00.000-08:00Jonathan Macey's 2008 book Corporate Governance is...Jonathan Macey's 2008 book Corporate Governance is very good, and has some pages on credit rating agencies. Of course, it probably wasn't written till 2007 either. <BR/><BR/> The rating agencies are where much of the blame for this mess is to be found. And, of course, the Main Street suckers who relied on the ratings.Eric Rasmusenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01609599580545475695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-77496257165684335222009-02-27T12:01:00.000-08:002009-02-27T12:01:00.000-08:00Slippery slopes tend not to become a problem until...Slippery slopes tend not to become a problem until people stop worrying about them.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps we would have had a reduced chance of making it through the Cold War if we hadn't bombarded ourselves with warnings about nuclear war...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-24780439019343992422009-02-27T10:57:00.000-08:002009-02-27T10:57:00.000-08:00Unskilled wage versus Inflation1940 to 1970$276.84...Unskilled wage versus Inflation<BR/><BR/>1940 to 1970<BR/>$276.84 using the Consumer Price Index<BR/>$557.38 using the unskilled wage<BR/><BR/>1970 to 2000<BR/>$443.36 using the Consumer Price Index<BR/>$450.08 using the unskilled wage<BR/><BR/>[data calculated at: http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/]<BR/><BR/>Comparing the CPI and the unskilled wage from 1940 to 1970 (low immigration period) we see that unskilled wages were running well ahead of inflation. In other words unskilled workers were making real improvements in living standards. <BR/><BR/>The period from 1970 to 2000 (high immigration period) shows that unskilled workers were barely able to keep pace with inflation. That is, they were unable to make real improvements in living standards.<BR/><BR/>Obviously other factors affected this, notably the increasing returns to human capital (smarts) during this period. However, it is remarkable that there is such coincidence in the crossover from what many consider our golden period (1940 to 1970) to our stagnant period (1970 to current).<BR/><BR/>Is immigration a full explanation? Probably not, but it is a shame that we never see it mentioned during the great "inequality" debates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-42552044138204059152009-02-27T10:56:00.000-08:002009-02-27T10:56:00.000-08:00Call it the "Wile E. Coyote" effect: people and in...Call it the "Wile E. Coyote" effect: people and institutions can go quite a long time without falling after they walk off the incentive cliff. It's only when they look down that they start to fall...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-26389327671836683792009-02-27T08:33:00.000-08:002009-02-27T08:33:00.000-08:00I believe the SEC helped put the grease on the sli...I believe the SEC helped put the grease on the slippery slope by specifically designating certain rating agencies as the go-to guys, ipso facto, reliable. Thus, as with CRA, the government puts its mitts on the market and it invites corruption.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-70355344407227835522009-02-27T07:00:00.000-08:002009-02-27T07:00:00.000-08:00"Except, that didn't happen right away. ...Apparen..."Except, that didn't happen right away. ...Apparently, the culture was sound enough that it took a couple of decades for the ratings firms to fall prey to the incentives." This accords with my observation that conservatives are very shrewd at seeing the direction of social change but prone to overestimating its speed. That's because they overlook how conservative people can be, which is pleasingly paradoxical.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68116022814695038752009-02-27T06:16:00.000-08:002009-02-27T06:16:00.000-08:00Proof that golf just isn't a sport:"Erik Compton r...Proof that golf just isn't a sport:<BR/><BR/>"Erik Compton rode in one tournament last fall because he had gotten his second heart transplant only a few months before."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-72070093392134931532009-02-27T04:28:00.000-08:002009-02-27T04:28:00.000-08:00Egan-Jones, based in Philadelphia, does not accept...Egan-Jones, based in Philadelphia, does not accept any compensation from the issuers whose paper it rates; the<BR/>only revenue it receives is from the subscribers to its service, mostly buy-side firms.<BR/><BR/>Like other credit-rating firms, Egan-Jones basically assigns shorthand grades on the likelihood that a bond<BR/>will default and leave investors in the lurch. But Mr. Egan has only 15 analysts in his company, compared<BR/>with about 1,000 apiece at S&P and Moody's.<BR/><BR/>Mr. Egan says he relies on the analysts but doesn't disclose their names, partly because of security<BR/>concerns. He says he has been threatened with lawsuits and bodily harm by people who disagreed with his<BR/>research conclusions. "We're big boys, but I have to do what I can to minimize it," he says.<BR/><BR/>Over the years, Mr. Egan's targets have included auto makers and highfliers such as WorldCom Inc. and<BR/>Enron Corp., which he downgraded before larger rating firms lowered their ratings and the companies<BR/>collapsed.<BR/><BR/>Lately, though, he has been drawing attention for his negative views on bond insurers such<BR/>as MBIA Inc., which he rates at B -- 14 notches below its triple-A financial-strength ratings from S&P<BR/>and Moody's.<BR/><BR/>Sure, one necessary step in creating a really big investment<BR/>fraud is hitching your company’s wagon to Wall Street’s<BR/>perpetual financing machine.<BR/>Yes. Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) are beautiful at<BR/>that, by the way.<BR/>Aren’t they?<BR/>Oh, they’re the best at that. We don’t rate them anywhere near<BR/>AAA.<BR/><BR/>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<BR/><BR/>Plucked from a mixture of articles '06-08.<BR/><BR/> http://tinyurl.com/b88fd5<BR/><BR/>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<BR/><BR/>To most publishers, it would've been a touch of golden luck: a manuscript about the worst economic crisis in decades, written by a financial insider and finished months before rivals had even a rough draft ready. Instead, Wall Street investor Barry Ritholtz's "Bailout Nation: How Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy" appears to have become a parable for the same corporate shenanigans that it catalogs. In early 2008, McGraw-Hill paid a five-figure advance to Ritholtz, a frequent CNBC guest and author of "The Big Picture," a popular finance blog. When Congress passed its $700 billion bailout bill, McGraw-Hill's contract with Ritholtz looked prescient. The imprint started taking pre-orders and set a March release date. Then, in early February, it dropped the book.<BR/><BR/>Ritholz claims that he and McGraw-Hill butted heads over scathing passages about bond-rating agencies, which accepted large fees from investment banks while giving sterling ratings to subprime mortgages, helping the banks sell them at premium prices. In his original draft, Ritholtz dubbed this "payola" and called the rating agencies "pimps." His wrath extended to Standard & Poor's, a rating agency owned by the same company as McGraw-Hill. According to the author, when his editors took issue with his tone, he agreed to water it down but insisted on criticizing the agencies. Soon after, the book was dropped.<BR/><BR/>But Ritholtz isn't too upset: he says rivals are offering better advances than the one he's returning to McGraw-Hill.<BR/><BR/>http://www.newsweek.com/id/185848Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-58537196861696730172009-02-27T03:13:00.000-08:002009-02-27T03:13:00.000-08:00Great reporting. I have been wondering myself why ...Great reporting. I have been wondering myself why these mortgage-backed securities were given triple A ratings.<BR/><BR/>Might it also be possible that there was a race-baiting angle? If you don't sell these people mortgages you are racist. If you rate them as junk, ipso facto, you are racist also and will be outed by ACORN, et. al.?<BR/><BR/>The even more sinister and really depressing idea is that its worse than about race, but a harbinger of permanent (at least for the next 20 years) economic decline. Minorities were simply the canaries, the most fragile group to feel the effects of 2 billion chinese and Indians happy to work for 50 cents an hour, six days a week, no social security, no health care, no workers comp., etc.<BR/><BR/>If you are a politician you can't say this and expect to get elected. So, someone, somewhere came up with this idea to create bubble wealth and maintain the illusion. A professional politician would think this way. Or was it group-think at Harvard?<BR/><BR/>If this is the case, we are in for a long, ugly fall. What are these securities worth? What are these properties worth and what will it cost to stop a general depression or very high inflation in order to pay.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-49608531190597839132009-02-27T00:41:00.000-08:002009-02-27T00:41:00.000-08:00I agree with what you're saying. But it seems at ...I agree with what you're saying. But it seems at odds with some of your conservative peers.<BR/><BR/>Many secular-based (not necessarily atheistic, but not deriving principles from religious doctrine) conservatives oppose gay marriage primarily due to a "slippery slope" argument. The notion that if gay marriage is accepted, other improper forms of marriage will be codified such as polygamy, beastility, pedophilia,etc. <BR/><BR/>It seems you're disowning the idea of the actuality of a "slippery slope" (and I agree), but again, it seems to oppose your peers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61775302543949586952009-02-27T00:17:00.000-08:002009-02-27T00:17:00.000-08:00"Essentially, golf has a fairly healthy culture of...<I>"Essentially, golf has a fairly healthy culture of sportsmanship where top players don't want to be seen as abusing loopholes."</I><BR/><BR/>Then why the arms race with the high-tech clubs? Why not a set of standardized clubs for everyone?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com