tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post2428460237338513738..comments2024-03-27T18:24:19.683-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Is violent crime actually falling?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-29623456547083750562013-07-31T19:37:22.574-07:002013-07-31T19:37:22.574-07:00http://www.theamericanconservative.com/american-pr...http://www.theamericanconservative.com/american-pravda-liberal-bias/#more-89180Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-36763195895146721122013-07-26T18:07:59.976-07:002013-07-26T18:07:59.976-07:00“I always wonder why Chicago gets such a bad rap. ...<i>“I always wonder why Chicago gets such a bad rap. Sure there are shootings in Chicago but in terms of violent crime Chicago never makes it into the top ten in most lists.”</i><br /><br />Those lists should be viewed with a huge bag of salt. <br /><br /><i>“Because the Chicago Police Department tallies data differently than police in other cities, the FBI often does not accept its crime statistics. Chicago police officers record all criminal sexual assaults, as opposed to only rape. They count aggravated battery together with the standard category of aggravated assault. As a result, Chicago is often omitted from studies such as Morgan Quitno's annual "Safest/Most Dangerous City" survey, which relies on FBI-collected data.”</i><br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago#Policing<br /><br /><i>“For some reason the MSM has glommed on to the "Chicago is the shooting capitol of the country" narrative… I visited Chicago last week and was all over the North and West Sides and never heard a shot.” </i><br /><br />Shootings are primarily confined to black neighborhoods. Outside of those areas, shootings are not common. However, other crimes such as robbery have become more common in previously safe areas. I am guessing you did not spend much time in predominantly black areas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80385576760585160212013-07-24T17:20:28.121-07:002013-07-24T17:20:28.121-07:00"If we legalized drugs...Would that really be..."If we legalized drugs...Would that really be worse?"<br /><br />That's a 3rd option. My original comment was about the use of the war on drugs as an indirect way of hoovering up violent criminals. I said it does partly work.<br /><br />.<br /><br />"In the current setup, people go to jail for minor drug offenses but then leave jail as hardened criminals."<br /><br />Disagree completely. People who are soft going into jail will come out soft and vice versa.<br /><br />.<br /><br />"Are you suggesting that the penalty for being caught with drugs at age 20 should be different than being caught with drugs at age 30 or 40?"<br /><br />Previous convictions.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-90123708883155715242013-07-24T11:55:28.895-07:002013-07-24T11:55:28.895-07:00@Anonymous of 7/24/13, 12:14 AM:
I don't thin...@Anonymous of 7/24/13, 12:14 AM:<br /><br /><i>I don't think it's [the "Proxy" as a reason for maintaining the War on Drugs] entirely bogus as things would be worse otherwise.</i><br /><br />If we legalized drugs, both cartels and the street gangs who retail for them would lose their major revenue stream. (Yes, they have others but none come close to illegal drugs.) Cartels would shrink as they adjusted to those backup revenue streams. In their current incarnation, gangs would have a halflife as their ex-drug dealer members aged (keeping the drug dealer persona alive with them), but then gangs would go back to how they were once upon a time: basically just groups of adolescents who got into mischief. Would that really be worse?<br /><br />And would it be worse if the 4th through 10th Amendments were once again given more meaning than just as words on paper?<br /><br />Or if the government didn't have to process (not jail, necessarily, but process) all those harmless white kids who get busted for smoking a little pot or dropping some ecstasy? Etc.<br /><br /><i>However i think there is a big flaw with the current setup in that a lot of criminals fade after their mid 20s which means keeping minor drug dealers in jail past that age probably doesn't help much at all while at the same time by keeping the jails full it leads to a revolving door for more violent criminals.<br /><br />So i think re-arranging who is in prison by taking into account the mid-20s effect could have a much greater impact.</i><br />In the current setup, people go to jail for minor drug offenses but then leave jail as hardened criminals. Usually more racist too. It's been that way for a long time, too.<br /><br />Are you suggesting that the penalty for being caught with drugs at age 20 should be different than being caught with drugs at age 30 or 40?Power Childhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13365109338643310492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-89139927922002817602013-07-24T05:00:26.410-07:002013-07-24T05:00:26.410-07:00Migration patterns indeed. Boston has a higher mu...Migration patterns indeed. Boston has a higher murder rate than Tampa. Boston should have priced the riff- raff out of town long ago (highest rents for a 1-bedroom apartment in the country). Is its crime fed by Boston's lack of concealed carry or the its generous welfare benefits, including the $1,400/month Section 8 housing voucher?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-75727678295559400902013-07-24T04:01:55.607-07:002013-07-24T04:01:55.607-07:00ArtDeco,
"Take it up with the chaps on the pr...ArtDeco,<br />"Take it up with the chaps on the previous thread who told me homicide numbers are invalid because of medical advances. "<br /><br />Criminologist Eric Monkkonen in his highly-praised "Murder in New York City" guesstimates that some 30% of homicide victims' lives may have been saved 100 years ago had modern medical methods been available, based as much on response time as anything else. He admits he lacks the expertise to make a definitive statement, though.Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-40563953451347650212013-07-24T00:14:26.915-07:002013-07-24T00:14:26.915-07:00"It's the same untenable assumption that ..."It's the same untenable assumption that aggravated assault = attempted homicide."<br /><br />It's not that. It's that anything that could end up as a homicide, if it doesn't, will be contained within the category of aggravated assault.<br /><br />Say 10% of serious woundings end in homicide (intentional or not) and you have 100 serious woundings then they end up categorized as<br />- 90 aggravated assaults<br />- 10 homicides<br /><br />Say the mortality rate drops to 5% for the same number of serious woundings then in theory the stats would change to<br />- 95 aggravated assaults<br />- 5 homicides<br /><br />However in districts where there's a lot of political pressure to fiddle crime stats the drop in homicides can provide cover to reduce the other stats too i.e. a 50% drop in homicides makes it possible to reduce aggravated assaults by 50% without it looking strange, down to for example<br />- 45 aggravated assaults<br />- 5 homicides<br /><br />.<br /><br />"How can you be sure of any of that without recourse to statistics?"<br /><br />You can't but experience can tell you when and where stats are more likely to be fiddled.<br /><br />Over the last 30 years violent crime in white neighborhoods has been going down because an aging population has fewer young men (and maybe other reasons as well) so there is no need or incentive to fiddle those stats.<br /><br />(There is an exception here for the rustbelt underclass where it's been going up again.)<br /><br />At the same time there has been increasing violent crime among some specific first-generation immigrant groups and pretty much all settled immigrant groups who don't have the ability to get out of the underclass in a high-tech world.<br /><br />(The last point is critical.)<br /><br />These increases are politically very incorrect and there has been a lot of effort to disguise it.<br /><br />For example, every police district in the western world which overlaps with an area of underclass has a sergeant whose job it is to downgrade the local equivalent of aggravated assault to assault.<br /><br />.<br /><br />"Obviously the authorities have incentives to fudge the crime numbers these days, but didn't they have those same incentives 20, 30, 40 years ago?"<br /><br />The number of neighborhoods where there's a reason to fudge the figures has increased as a percentage of the total.<br /><br />.<br /><br />"So, this means the last remaining defense of the war on drugs that makes any kind of sense (that it provides a handy proxy for cops to keep bad guys off the street, thus making us safer as evidenced by a lowered crime rate) is bogus?"<br /><br />I don't think it's entirely bogus as things would be worse otherwise.<br /><br />However i think there is a big flaw with the current setup in that a lot of criminals fade after their mid 20s which means keeping minor drug dealers in jail past that age probably doesn't help much at all while at the same time by keeping the jails full it leads to a revolving door for more violent criminals.<br /><br />So i think re-arranging who is in prison by taking into account the mid-20s effect could have a much greater impact.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-51893497591149792062013-07-23T23:44:15.308-07:002013-07-23T23:44:15.308-07:00No, I have not. I merely note that one is construc...<br /><i>No, I have not. I merely note that one is constructed from a census of reports from local law enforcement and the other is a survey of the public. Two different methods and sources, same data.</i><br /><br />First of all, the data isn't the same. Your survey data takes a bizarre knee-bend where it declines enormously from 1993 to 2001, then stays flat from 2001 to 2011. What happened? 9/11?<br /><br />Second, the sources aren't different at all. The proximate source is the same: bureaucrats who have a vested interest in lower crime numbers. You're telling me it's impossible to gank a survey? You're telling me that if you were working on the NCVS, and you wanted the numbers to come out lower because it would advance your career, you couldn't find a way to help?<br /><br />The hospital data is much more trustworthy both because it confirms what our eyes tell us (gangbangers have not become less gangbangy), and because it is produced by agents without an institutional interest in any particular outcome.<br /><br />It's really unfortunate that I have to spell this kind of reasoning out to an apparently intelligent person.Moldbughttp://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-784927508721693832013-07-23T23:29:51.718-07:002013-07-23T23:29:51.718-07:00Dave Pinsen
"The virtuous cycle continues wh...Dave Pinsen<br /><br />"The virtuous cycle continues when the criminal-prone move out to the suburbs or exurbs."<br /><br />No it doesn't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18452078466655258532013-07-23T23:26:34.165-07:002013-07-23T23:26:34.165-07:00This debate is difficult because you're lookin...This debate is difficult because you're looking at the *net* effect of different movements in opposite directions and lots of politically motivated distortions.<br /><br />Because of that i would say the only safe data is medical data which where available shows violence going up dramatically.<br /><br />.<br /><br />In simple terms this is what has been happening across the western world imo.<br /><br />Violent crime has been falling in x neighborhoods and increasing in y neighborhoods where x > y so the *net* effect has been falling overall crime.<br /><br />However the number of neighborhoods where crime is decreasing x, is itself decreasing while the number of neighborhoods where it is increasing y, is increasing so although on the surface overall crime is decreasing there is a disguised underlying trend. When x and y cross over crime will head dramatically upwards.<br /><br />It's a bit like the way a tsunami starts with the tide going out - the lull before the storm.<br /><br />Most western countries are in the lull part with the US close to the point where it turns into a storm.<br /><br />.<br /><br />At the same time just to further confuse the issue, in cities like New York, LA and DC the y neighborhoods are being displaced to middle-class suburbs outside those cities.<br /><br />.<br /><br />Apart from medical data another metric that shows this effect is the proportion of prisoners from immigrant groups.<br /><br />If you take a country like France or Sweden the x neighborhoods are mostly indigenous while the y neighborhoods are those containing particular immigrant groups with high violent crime rates. A graph of immigrant prison inmates as a percentage of the total would serve as a reasonable proxy for displaying the underlying trend between x vs y neighborhoods.<br /><br />.<br /><br />The pro-immigration lobby has to hide the underlying trend else the voters would freak.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-12570199486686049582013-07-23T20:04:28.266-07:002013-07-23T20:04:28.266-07:00You can aggregate the national statistics of Tibet...<i>You can aggregate the national statistics of Tibet and Morocco into one pseudo-country, Tibocco. Your statements about the "Average Tiboccan" are precisely as valid, mathematically speaking, as agnostic's statements about the "average American." But historically speaking, anyone who talks about the "average Tiboccan" is speaking gibberish. We may argue whether or not the Moroccan or Tibetan data sets need to be broken down further into more cohesive local categories, but no one can argue for making inferences about Tiboccans. Capisce?<br /><br />This analogy is incorrect since in the US we're often talking about violent crime rates in cities i.e. in specific geographic locations with heterogeneous populations but with mobility and without strict segregation. </i><br /><br />This analogy is indeed correct in that it explains how it is necessary to look more closely at the details (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox" rel="nofollow">Simpson's Paradox</a>). That these details are even more confused by migration patterns and the mendacity of the official statistics doesn't help much either.<br /><br />The point is that the statistics we have aren't very helpful here, and we will need to rely on other methods to figure out what is really happening.a Newsreadernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41565676527813465982013-07-23T19:16:04.449-07:002013-07-23T19:16:04.449-07:00"I think there's a virtuous spiral in eff...<i>"I think there's a virtuous spiral in effect here. Low-lifes are being priced out of major metropolitan centers, so crime goes down. This makes the area more desirable and thus more expensive, pricing out even more criminals."</i><br /><br />The virtuous cycle continues when the criminal-prone move out to the suburbs or exurbs. With everyone driving cars, there's less opportunity for muggings and other crimes. Also, consider the proliferation of cheap consumer goods and credit cards. Why break into someone's house and risk getting shot or going to jail for a flat screen TV when you can just buy one at Walmart or Target on a credit card? Dave Pinsenhttp://twitter.com/dpinsennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-12844812376116759502013-07-23T18:37:34.307-07:002013-07-23T18:37:34.307-07:00You can aggregate the national statistics of Tibet...<i>You can aggregate the national statistics of Tibet and Morocco into one pseudo-country, Tibocco. Your statements about the "Average Tiboccan" are precisely as valid, mathematically speaking, as agnostic's statements about the "average American." But historically speaking, anyone who talks about the "average Tiboccan" is speaking gibberish. We may argue whether or not the Moroccan or Tibetan data sets need to be broken down further into more cohesive local categories, but no one can argue for making inferences about Tiboccans. Capisce?</i><br /><br />This analogy is incorrect since in the US we're often talking about violent crime rates in cities i.e. in specific geographic locations with heterogeneous populations but with mobility and without strict segregation. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-79323628641179949572013-07-23T18:20:53.138-07:002013-07-23T18:20:53.138-07:00http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/07...http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/07/23/note-to-paul-krugman-it-took-more-than-markets-to-ruin-detroit/<br /><br />"The soft bigotry of low expectations meant that neither federal nor state prosecutors intervened until very late as the thieves looted the ruins."<br /><br />Oh no, not this crap again.<br />The soft zealotry of high expectations make conservatives believe that we can expect anything better from a city that is 90% black. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-5321632910499872392013-07-23T18:15:43.463-07:002013-07-23T18:15:43.463-07:00You've constructed, I suppose, some kind of ma...<i><br />You've constructed, I suppose, some kind of magical distinction between a report and a survey. Which leaves the former easily manipulated, but confirms the usual papal infallibility on the latter.</i><br /> <br />No, I have not. I merely note that one is constructed from a census of reports from local law enforcement and the other is a survey of the public. Two different methods and sources, same data.<br /><br />Give it up buddy. You don't know what your talking about. Art Decohttp://wwrtc.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-23611160336553636652013-07-23T18:10:51.287-07:002013-07-23T18:10:51.287-07:00http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/23/world/americas/p...http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/23/world/americas/prices-fuel-outrage-in-brazil-home-of-the-30-cheese-pizza.html?_r=0<br /><br /><br />Wow. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-15113867938448946482013-07-23T17:24:32.651-07:002013-07-23T17:24:32.651-07:00"In 2010, 13.96% of U.S. shooting victims die..."In 2010, 13.96% of U.S. shooting victims died, almost two percentage points lower than in 2007."<br /><br /><br />-2007 was before the crash; maybe people on average are buying (cheaper) low caliber pistols and bullets, which will do less damage, or conserving ammo by poppin a few less caps in punk *ss fools.<br /><br />I know for certain that the price of ammo has been going up recently because the feds have been buying enough to take Detroit singlehandedly if they wanted.<br /><br />So maybe its not that far of a stretch- certainly within a reasonable interpretation of the laws of supply and demand.<br /><br />Legion 6noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-40187055226781041342013-07-23T15:44:45.824-07:002013-07-23T15:44:45.824-07:00However, the average round of the same caliber pro...<i>However, the average round of the same caliber probably is more deadly today. So the question is whether the most common calibers have gone down in size, or whether they have stayed consistent.</i><br /><br />The standard police round used to be .38, which has just about been completely replaced in favor of more powerful 9mm or .40 S&W now.Bob Loblawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11081916786770290968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-47169397577852357792013-07-23T15:28:12.756-07:002013-07-23T15:28:12.756-07:00More objectively and quantitatively, consider real...<i>More objectively and quantitatively, consider real estate prices. Would they be booming in cities like New York or San Francisco if crime there were on the rise?</i><br /><br />I think there's a virtuous spiral in effect here. Low-lifes are being priced out of major metropolitan centers, so crime goes down. This makes the area more desirable and thus more expensive, pricing out even more criminals.Bob Loblawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11081916786770290968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-47693568529779471472013-07-23T15:13:37.252-07:002013-07-23T15:13:37.252-07:00San Diego police stats indicate that per capita vi...San Diego <a href="http://www.sandiego.gov/police/pdf/2013/UCRRates1950to2012.pdf" rel="nofollow">police stats</a> indicate that per capita violent crime in that city has increased 9x from 1950. It would not surprise me if the nation has more or less followed that course.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-45680191757718765172013-07-23T14:05:09.585-07:002013-07-23T14:05:09.585-07:00interesting that Moldbug apparently appears to bel...interesting that Moldbug apparently appears to believe that statistics have been manipulated to show a downwards trend during the "20th century".<br /><br />But apparently these manipulators forgot to do this through both the rising crime periods of 1900 - 1933 and 1963 - 1993. <br /><br />What bizarre democracy caused peccadillo must be responsible for this phenomenon. Surely the answer lies in a wedge of Carlyle?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-16879785216012240352013-07-23T13:33:08.923-07:002013-07-23T13:33:08.923-07:00"Crime has been falling among certain populat..."Crime has been falling among certain populations and increasing among others. The actual reality is the balance between these two trends which varies from place to place. The perceived reality is something different."<br /><br />How can you be sure of any of that without recourse to statistics?Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-50314435931443012502013-07-23T13:31:03.477-07:002013-07-23T13:31:03.477-07:00"Medical advances mask epidemic of violence b..."Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate <br />Roger Dobson<br />BMJ 2002;325:615 (21 September)<br />bmj.com <br />ncbi.nlm.nih.gov "<br /><br /><br />It's the same untenable assumption that aggravated assault = attempted homicide. In some cases it might, but not in all, which is what the argument requires.Silvernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-75137288210434523682013-07-23T12:49:24.326-07:002013-07-23T12:49:24.326-07:00"but has the Bronx, or Queens, or other ungla..."but has the Bronx, or Queens, or other unglamorous boroughs?"<br /><br />Are the lawyers at the Bronx courthouse still afraid to go out for lunch, as depicted in Steve's favorite book? Do they still move their cars to safer spots after sundown? I don't know about the Bronx specifically, but the pervasive fear of that type felt in many American cities twenty-five years ago seems certainly felt in many fewer today.James Kabalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02335302113772004687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-59506120101460475312013-07-23T12:40:42.542-07:002013-07-23T12:40:42.542-07:00So, this means the last remaining defense of the w...So, this means the last remaining defense of the war on drugs that makes any kind of sense (that it provides a handy proxy for cops to keep bad guys off the street, thus making us safer as evidenced by a lowered crime rate) is bogus?Power Childhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13365109338643310492noreply@blogger.com