tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post3153849649814574323..comments2024-03-28T16:22:14.888-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: My Super Bowl prediction: Manning to regress toward meanUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-36914376545575785092014-02-02T17:41:30.016-08:002014-02-02T17:41:30.016-08:00Looks like everyone was wrong: Manning has regress...Looks like everyone was wrong: Manning has regressed to choking in the big game, again. 'Course I'm just going by the score at Drudge, for all I know he was knocked out of the game in the first series.Svigornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-8032530787325163362014-02-02T05:11:20.265-08:002014-02-02T05:11:20.265-08:00Okay, it's finally the morning of the sooper-d...Okay, it's finally the morning of the sooper-dooper bowl, and, as of right now, <a href="http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/East+Rutherford+NJ+USNJ0128:1:US?pagenum=2&nextbeginIndex=0" rel="nofollow"><b>Weather.com says that</b></a> the freezing rain and the snow will not begin until midnight.<br /><br />If that's true - if the freezing rain and the snow don't begin until just AFTER the game has completed - then it will be a massive advantage for Denver.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-43744730005981480532014-01-30T15:22:07.510-08:002014-01-30T15:22:07.510-08:00Can someone decipher Pinker's words into plain...<i>Can someone decipher Pinker's words into plain English?</i><br /><br />Yeah: wiiner-takes-all tossups.Svigornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-51123474452395322812014-01-30T13:42:49.333-08:002014-01-30T13:42:49.333-08:00Manning has a career 8-11 record for games outdoor...<i>Manning has a career 8-11 record for games outdoors under forty degrees, which is most of the reason he lost important playoff games in New England.</i><br /><br />Meh. Causation could easily be the other way... he has an 8-11 sub-40F record because of all the play-off games in NE.Portlandernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-84821485226280369682014-01-30T11:38:40.952-08:002014-01-30T11:38:40.952-08:00Steve,
A bit off-track but since it's sports ...Steve,<br /><br />A bit off-track but since it's sports and involves a better example of regression to the mean, here goes-<br /><br />Reading a post-mortem analysis of the most recent World Series, the writer pointed out that the result was largely St. Louis's offense suffering a very unforgiving and very ill-timed regression to the mean for its team BABIP statistic. BABIP (batting average balls in play) basically says what the batting average is for balls that the defense has a reasonable shot at fielding. Since batters have a limited ability to control where the ball is hit, and since defenses now function at such a high level- routinely making plays that would have been highlights only 20 years ago- the average for this statistic should be around .300, with higher numbers indicating temporary luck that will eventually correct itself.<br /><br />St. Louis's offense did not have much power (home runs are obviously not balls-in-play, and so did not contribute to its high team statistic) and relied too heavily on "seeing-eye" singles for its runs. This was illustrated pretty dramatically in NLCS Game 6 against the Dodgers, where at least on-paper they shelled probably the best pitcher in the game. Yet looking at what happened it is obvious the Dodgers were simply victims of bad luck: for 2 innings, lots of balls that were eminently playable simply happened to be hit outside the reach of Dodger fielders.<br /><br />In the World Series St. Louis's luck ran out, and though they were able to put men on base with scattered singles, they simply could not drive them in as they were a low-power team that had relied too heavily on balls struck through the infield for their offense.<br /><br />Again, one needs to really understand the mechanics of the sport to determine if a regression scenario is in effect. At the professional level batters have almost no control of where the ball will go on properly executed pitches, and any ball hit through the infield will, given the quality of today's defenses, result in an out no matter how well struck it was. Thus hits on balls through the infield is mostly a matter of placement, and therefore luck.<br /><br />With Manning, the mechanics of the sport in no way indicate a regression is due. With Tim Tebow, who won those 8 straight games despite executing in a manner not geared for efficient scoring, yes. But Denver seems to have found an offensive system that works for them given the qualities of their quarterback. Ceteris paribus, a younger Peyton Manning would have a better shot than today's old one, but there is nothing indicating his performance is a way-out result from a very mediocre mean, rather than a better-than-expected one from a very high mean.<br /><br />Statistical concepts like this assume a certain baseline of understanding of how things are supposed to work before they can be fruitfully applied. If it has a long snout and is big and heavy, regression tells you it's going to take a big dump on you because it's an elephant. Unless it's a tank.Modern Abrahamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05601548083390383293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-88844479235887593282014-01-30T11:25:11.562-08:002014-01-30T11:25:11.562-08:00On that last drive there were two times that the D...<i>On that last drive there were two times that the DT blew through the gap between the guard and center and the center placed him in a head lock from the rear to prevent a sack.</i> <br /><br />Huh.<br /><br />I wasn't watching that closely.<br /><br />Is there any video on youtube?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-49093200522451620222014-01-30T10:08:22.378-08:002014-01-30T10:08:22.378-08:00"Green Bay lost to San Francisco, in this yea..."Green Bay lost to San Francisco, in this year's version of the "Ice Bowl", because San Francisco had the ability to go "Smash Mouth" and win ugly, whereas Green Bay did not."<br /><br />I watched that game on TV and wasn't particularly attached to either team and that is not what I saw: I saw on San Francisco's last drive egregious holding by the o-line that gave Kaepernick the 8 or so seconds per pass attempt that his brain needs to process the situation and find a receiver or decide to take off running (as an aside: he's one leg injury away from being totally ineffective because he's a terrible pocket passer). On that last drive there were two times that the DT blew through the gap between the guard and center and the center placed him in a head lock from the rear to prevent a sack. It's almost as if the NFL wanted SF with its vibrant, diverse, young QB to advance.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-24616984877161336402014-01-30T07:12:56.626-08:002014-01-30T07:12:56.626-08:00>>Pinker told me, "mental effort seems ...>>Pinker told me, "mental effort seems to be engaged most with the knife edge at which one finds extreme and radically different consequences with each outcome, but the considerations militating towards each one are close to equal."<<<br /><br />Can someone decipher Pinker's words into plain English?<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-62692528985075995402014-01-30T07:06:30.108-08:002014-01-30T07:06:30.108-08:00"...33 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and win..."...33 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and winning the Rose Bowl, that he was drafted in the third round."<br /><br />Alas, Wisconsin lost that Rose Bowl too, thanks in large measure to De'Anthony Thomas (How he ended up at Oregon could be whole iSteve blog entry in and of itself). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-84809146526611785782014-01-30T06:11:19.279-08:002014-01-30T06:11:19.279-08:00>>Eli Manning, Ole Miss 39 -- 136
Aaron Rod...>>Eli Manning, Ole Miss 39 -- 136<br /> Aaron Rodgers, Cal 35 -- 128<br /> Tom Brady, Michigan 33 -- 124<br /> Peyton Manning, Tennessee 28 -- 114<br /> Drew Brees, Purdue 28 -- 114<br /> Joe Flacco, Delaware 27 -- 112<br /> Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (Ohio) 25 -- 108<<<br /><br />I don't know, I suspect most of these guys are smarter than this. <br /><br />I feel I can judge someone's IQ pretty well, not because I'm such a genius, but because in the Marines, the unit roster was left out in the office. It had each member's test score, which was essentially their IQ. Guys with simple MOSs were usually around 100, more technical ones 110 to 120, officers 120's to 130's. (Mine was 146, which with my 1370 SAT should match pretty much with my IQ.) <br /><br />I think these guys are at least as smart as the officers I knew in the Marines, probably smarter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-63907528438614965222014-01-30T05:28:52.938-08:002014-01-30T05:28:52.938-08:00Manning has a career 8-11 record for games outdoor...Manning has a career 8-11 record for games outdoors under forty degrees, which is most of the reason he lost important playoff games in New England.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-31891920300257690022014-01-30T04:52:17.840-08:002014-01-30T04:52:17.840-08:00"Why are you predicting that it is Manning wh..."Why are you predicting that it is Manning who will regress to the mean and not Seattle's defense? Manning has immense experience and is very consistent. Seattle's defense is young and strikes me as much more likely to lay a meanward-regressing egg on the big stage."<br /><br />Defense, way more than Offense, is subject to emotional ups-and-downs. That's probably due to Defense by nature being more reactive than offense. That's why when a good team is upset by or has an inexplicably hard time against an inferior opponent, it's usually the fault of the defense, who find it difficult to be "up" for every single game. It's why Seattle almost lost at home to a woeful Tampa Bay team earlier this year. Rest assured though, with an extra week to prepare for the biggest game of their lives, Seattle's D will have no problem being emotionally up for this game, and there will be no regression towards the mean for them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-60681111685531472972014-01-30T00:16:35.878-08:002014-01-30T00:16:35.878-08:00Hey, what was Jim McMahon's score? Combined 24...Hey, what was Jim McMahon's score? Combined 24 from two attempts?regression to self-parodynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-30711262381975834292014-01-29T21:14:37.681-08:002014-01-29T21:14:37.681-08:00No comment on the 20 point IQ difference between M...No comment on the 20 point IQ difference between Manning brothers? That's huge.<br /><br />I'm very skeptical Eli is in the 130's. I think Eagle Dad borrowed a wad of Franklins from Peyton and fixed up Eli. Lower to mid-120's, sure why not, but 136? I wanna see a transcript.Portlandernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-80676907714600135582014-01-29T18:47:44.011-08:002014-01-29T18:47:44.011-08:00Against the 49ers Wilson had more than once this d...Against the 49ers Wilson had more than once this deer in headlights look after the snap(release time on average 3.35 seconds). He is vastly overrated as a pocket passer and only makes big plays when he buys time with his horizontal mobility. Since most of the secondaries in the NFL are 100 percent diverse they have little discipline and fall apart after a few seconds which allows Wilson at times to look like an elite qb. His roll outs from the pocket are quite predictable and it remains a mystery why defensive coordinators struggle to exploit it.<br />In contrast, Manning's release is the quickest in the NFL (2.33 seconds on average) and with five solid targets plus a running back with decent hands he should be able to stretch the defense and demoralize the Seattle Pharmacies pass rush.The weather might not be such a factor for Manning since the Broncos offense is build on short to intermediate passing mixed with occasional running to allow play action. The biggest problem for the Broncos will be reigning in Marshawn Lynch. By the way, Wilson is probably even shorter than 5'11" if Lynch is listed correctly. One aspect that most journalists and experts seem to ignore is the high risk of injury in the cold, especially on artifical turf. The loss of one or two key players early in the game could have a tremendous effect on the outcome.ein viertel zurücknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-78053491280365275042014-01-29T18:13:11.786-08:002014-01-29T18:13:11.786-08:00"Isn't the Broncos' season too small ..."Isn't the Broncos' season too small a sample size for "regression to the mean" to mean anything for predicting the SuperBowl's outcome"<br /><br />I would think the smaller the sample size, the more regression toward the mean you'd expect. Denver had the most passing touchdowns in league history. But that's only in 16 games. <br />Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-63518985510036985582014-01-29T18:09:56.139-08:002014-01-29T18:09:56.139-08:00Isn't the Broncos' season too small a samp...Isn't the Broncos' season too small a sample size for "regression to the mean" to mean anything for predicting the SuperBowl's outcome--except a fun catchphrase?<br /><br />I think (hope) Manning steps up. But, as Anonymous says, it probably comes down to whether Denver's offense can operate in the cold.Percy Grycenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-32354109323466712192014-01-29T17:34:08.635-08:002014-01-29T17:34:08.635-08:00The 2 Mannings are more than a standard deviation ...The 2 Mannings are more than a standard deviation apart? (What's the variance of the Wonderlic test for the same player taking it multiple times?)<br /><br />Also, Steve, have you seen this wonderful piece?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/178140/feminisms-toxic-twitter-wars?page=full#" rel="nofollow">http://www.thenation.com/article/178140/feminisms-toxic-twitter-wars?page=full#</a><br /><br />One group of feminists is annoyed by another group of feminists' illogical vitriol and lack of self awareness.a Newsreadernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-35559316554490948392014-01-29T17:32:22.853-08:002014-01-29T17:32:22.853-08:00Broncos. Seattle's defence is overrateed. Bron...Broncos. Seattle's defence is overrateed. Bronco's special teams, defence, and running game - underrated. It aint all on Peyton. (Who is properly rated though).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-90281233417170750532014-01-29T17:13:47.649-08:002014-01-29T17:13:47.649-08:00Wow, of the seven QBs Steve listed, the one with t...Wow, of the seven QBs Steve listed, the one with the lowest Wonderlic score has done the greatest number of highly-publicized dumb things off the field:<br /><br />1) Riding a motor bike without a helmet, which led to him shattering the windshield of someone else's car with his skull.<br /><br />2) Being accused of sexual assault twice. <br /><br />OK, I don't know if either of the two accusations had merit, but I don't remember any of the other guys on that list being accused of it. Glossyhttp://lazyglossophiliac.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-9065756858399072232014-01-29T17:11:58.194-08:002014-01-29T17:11:58.194-08:00"why humans are most fascinated by arguing ov..."why humans are most fascinated by arguing over things that are least provable,"<br /><br />For the same reason the earliest written law codes are full of the rules in weird cases. Read the code of Hammurabi (maybe the first written legal code) and it is full of "if a freeman kills the cow of a slave, said freeman shall pay the slave's owner two sheep".<br /><br />As my nationally famous professor explained, everyone knew the clear cases. If you killed someone, everyone knew what the penalty was . There was not need to write it down. It was the obscure cases that needed to be codified. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-64311105375328851392014-01-29T17:03:01.056-08:002014-01-29T17:03:01.056-08:00Which is not to say that I expect Denver to win, b...Which is not to say that I expect Denver to win, but that I'd expect manning to be worse than his averageSidewaysnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-5375916980102857042014-01-29T16:58:22.169-08:002014-01-29T16:58:22.169-08:00If manning regressed to his mean, the Broncos will...If manning regressed to his mean, the Broncos will easily beat the Seahawks. It's weird seeing Steve misuse a term like that that he uses all the time. <br /><br />It's like Steve is a different guy from the one writing about blacks regressing to a different mean earlier this week. Sidewaysnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-31320139999745683482014-01-29T15:28:21.073-08:002014-01-29T15:28:21.073-08:00On the other hand, with an extra week to prepare, ...On the other hand, with an extra week to prepare, Denver's defense could exploit Wilson's shortness. A decade ago, an old, short Doug Flutie had some spectacular games, but typically defenses would eventually figure out how to make it hard for him to see his receivers.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-91524422493516812622014-01-29T15:26:15.936-08:002014-01-29T15:26:15.936-08:00"Why are you predicting that it is Manning wh..."Why are you predicting that it is Manning who will regress to the mean and not Seattle's defense?"<br /><br />One guy vs. eleven. Age 37 versus average age in their 20s. More likely potential bad weather will degrade skill more than strength.Steve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.com