tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post4290606072857763382..comments2024-03-27T18:24:19.683-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: New twin study by Plomin, Shakeshaft et alUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-78718822390530861192013-12-13T08:32:47.779-08:002013-12-13T08:32:47.779-08:00Very unlikely that any country really failed to te...<i>Very unlikely that any country really failed to test its weaker performers with any consistency. Otherwise there would be some sort of correlation between bureaucratic effectiveness and success on the tests, whereas the real situation is closer to being opposite to this. I conjecture that the results of full samples would have been little different from those of partial ones.</i><br /><br />Good point. More likely in countries with effective bureaucracies (China?) than ones with ineffective bureaucracies (Vietnam?) but still not very likely there, and judging by the relative size of the missing fractions, not of large effect even if it was done perfectly, which it wouldn't have been.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-44877846247300425872013-12-13T07:12:45.067-08:002013-12-13T07:12:45.067-08:00http://bobrehak.com/wordpress/portfolio-2/document...http://bobrehak.com/wordpress/portfolio-2/documentary/<br /><br />Pinker's sort of right. There was a barbarization of society from late 60s to late 70s. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68928197668748764092013-12-13T05:20:36.286-08:002013-12-13T05:20:36.286-08:00I love your manic posts, because every time Steve ...<i>I love your manic posts, because every time Steve posts something that bothers you, you start repeating yourself in the comments section like a qualified mental patient, with the idea that people will read what you have to say... again.</i><br /><br />Hey, I only commented once before in this thread. I don't know who the other anonymous was, but he made a valid observation IMO. When Steve's on a roll, he's on a roll. So what if he has his ups and downs, so do a lot of geniuses. (And if a genius has the ability to concentrate for only a limited period of time and be at the very top of his game - doesn't there have to be a refractory period, one might almost call a "depression" afterwards, kind of by definition? Is it really (hypo)mania, or is it just a reflection of this phenomenon?) Anyway, when it's one of these times, the writing is better than Steve's average, I find. YMMV.<br /><br />I made the comment about the trigger because often there is one, and I would not be surprised if the Guardian article was it. I was on a high after reading that too. In much the same way that I was on a high after it was revealed who the Boston bombers were - and if you remember that was also a trigger for our host to have a particularly prolific and awesome bout of posting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-73660734067498709572013-12-13T02:37:40.178-08:002013-12-13T02:37:40.178-08:00"MIT neuroscientists find even high-performin...<i>"MIT neuroscientists find even high-performing schools don't influence their students' abstract reasoning.<br /><br /><br />...schools whose students have the highest gains on test scores do not produce similar gains in... the ability to analyze abstract problems and think logically...<br /><br />...schools had almost no effect on students' performance on tests of fluid intelligence skills, such as working memory capacity, speed of information processing, and ability to solve abstract problems."</i><br /><br />Of course, the recent paper showing the Flynn Effect to be strongest in rule based abstract tests and giving a theory why this is so, makes it obvious this is not because abstract reasoning is a "real" genetically determined thing that is without environmental influence.<br /><br />But schools don't give a sh*t about teaching it. Why? Because it's not on the test. Crystallized skills are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-58488891181389936482013-12-12T20:46:42.192-08:002013-12-12T20:46:42.192-08:00"‘Imagine America Without Los Angeles’: Exper..."‘Imagine America Without Los Angeles’: Expert Warns Southern California Isn’t Ready For Major Quake"<br /><br />The next time someone asks, "why would anyone need to own an automatic weapon?" You just show them that article.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-19461785951131532782013-12-12T20:45:36.773-08:002013-12-12T20:45:36.773-08:00"Even When Test Scores Go Up, Some Cognitive ...<a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131211131949.htm" rel="nofollow">"Even When Test Scores Go Up, Some Cognitive Abilities Don't"</a>, Science News, Dec. 11, 2013.<br /><br /><i>"MIT neuroscientists find even high-performing schools don't influence their students' abstract reasoning.<br /><br /><br />...schools whose students have the highest gains on test scores do not produce similar gains in... the ability to analyze abstract problems and think logically...<br /><br />...schools had almost no effect on students' performance on tests of fluid intelligence skills, such as working memory capacity, speed of information processing, and ability to solve abstract problems."</i><br /><br />No surprise of course, but still.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-22259385670091560032013-12-12T20:35:35.538-08:002013-12-12T20:35:35.538-08:00Plomin needs to brush up on his Latin. "Educa...Plomin needs to brush up on his Latin. "Education" does come from the verb "educare", but that does not mean "to draw out". That would be the compound verb "e-ducere", from which we get our verb "educt" as in the process of drawing out a wire.<br /><br />"Educare", from which we get our word "education", rather like "instruere" from which we get the word "instruction", means "to nourish, to feed", which has precisely the meaning of putting something in, not pulling something out. In other words, educare and instruere mean almost the same thing.PatrickHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04864910409538457529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-37230634365638421312013-12-12T13:47:21.381-08:002013-12-12T13:47:21.381-08:00The problem with this argument is that there's...<em>The problem with this argument is that there's no reason to believe that there is any non-oppressive way for society to "equalize" the shared environments.</em><br /><br />The other problem is: what if we've already equalized the environments? With the highest funding going to NAM-majority school districts, minority-only scholarships, and aids like ESL, what if we've already done most of what can be done about the environment? That would mean that we've already gained that 36% in education, so if we ever end all the minority preferences and boosting, the gap will get even <em>wider</em>.Cail Corishevhttp://cailcorishev.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18091490454160057332013-12-12T13:38:46.952-08:002013-12-12T13:38:46.952-08:00Heads up Steve:
"‘Imagine America Without Lo...Heads up Steve:<br /><br />"‘Imagine America Without Los Angeles’: Expert Warns Southern California Isn’t Ready For Major Quake"<br /><br />http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2013/12/11/imagine-america-without-los-angeles-expert-warns-southern-california-isnt-ready-for-major-quake/<br /><br />"According to a USGS study called the “Shakeout Report,” when a high-magnitude earthquake rocks the San Andreas fault, the damage will go far beyond the collapsed buildings and freeways seen in the 1994 Northridge earthquake.<br /><br />For example, LA-area supermarkets now depend on Internet systems for warehousing and shipping food to stores, and the food is stored on the other side of the San Andreas fault.<br /><br />“With the development of the Internet and the new just-in-time economy, none of them store food on the Los Angeles side of the San Andreas anymore,” Jones said.<br /><br />“So this is one more place where the development of the complexity of our modern society is creating new vulnerabilities as we face the big earthquakes.”<br /><br />Fiber-optics could also be cut off when a disastrous earthquake hits the San Andreas fault.<br /><br />“Two-thirds of the connectivity from Los Angeles to the rest of the world go through fiber-optic cables crossing the San Andreas fault,” Jones explained. “So we expect at the time of the earthquake when the fault moves, we will break these fiber-optic cables and two-thirds of the data capacity between LA and everyone else will disappear,” she said.<br /><br />Natural gas pipelines also cross the San Andreas fault, so gas for cooking and heating would be in short supply.<br /><br />And the area’s aging water pipes, which seem to break with great regularity even without a temblor, are not expected to stand up well when the big earthquake hits.<br /><br />“The water pipes — remember the first thing you put in in a city is the water pipes. That means our water pipes are some of the oldest parts of our infrastructure,” Jones said.<br /><br />“Seventy percent of the water pipes in Southern California are AC pipes and many of them will be breaking when this earthquake happens.”<br /><br />Much of the high-tech damage could hinder the recovery effort in the weeks and months after the earthquake, according to Dr. Jones, so getting Southern California back on its feet could be a wrenching process.<br /><br />“The World Wide Web wasn’t in existence at the time of the Northridge earthquake,” she said. “Right now think of how much both your personal life, but also our economic system, depends on having cell phone communications and internet connectivity (sic).”<br /><br />The “Shakeout Report” from the USGS estimates it could take six months for the broken water pipes to be replaced across Southern California after the earthquake.<br /><br />And they say while the Northridge quake directly affected about a half a million people, a maximum credible earthquake on the San Andreas fault could affect 10 million Californians."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-22153802512767993472013-12-12T13:11:12.359-08:002013-12-12T13:11:12.359-08:00@Albertosaurus:
I don't get why otherwise rea...@Albertosaurus:<br /><br />I don't get why otherwise reasonable people suddenly believe in magic when they come across twins.<br /><br />If you shared the exact same DNA and upbringing as another person you'd complete a lot of his sentences too. Many of your word associations, mental images, and so forth would be the same. Your brain-to-tongue coordination and reflexes would work very similarly. You'd have spent many of your formative years learning and experiencing things side by side with that other person, reinforcing the habit of helping each other complete sentences, or racing to see who could complete the thought first, or immediately sharing a completed thought for instant approval. Being a twin is almost like a drug in that way.<br /><br />But it's not supernatural.Power Childhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13365109338643310492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-50884475993193175902013-12-12T12:35:55.645-08:002013-12-12T12:35:55.645-08:00"Anonymous" Said:
"I love the Sail..."Anonymous" Said:<br /><br />"I love the Sailer manic phase posts. What was the trigger? Was it the frickin' Guardian coming out with "Genetics accounts for more than half..."?"<br /><br />I love your manic posts, because every time Steve posts something that bothers you, you start repeating yourself in the comments section like a qualified mental patient, with the idea that people will read what you have to say... again.<br /><br />You couldn't do that with your own blogsite, because people would write you off as a mental patient, and wander off to somebody else. <br /><br />So in a deep-and yes, perverse dependent-psychological way, Steve completes you.<br /><br />That's what I love. But then I guess I'm odd because I love watching the weak-minded roll around in their own rot. So you complete me in a way!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-22434931041682495362013-12-12T12:27:55.228-08:002013-12-12T12:27:55.228-08:00So, if the twins study prove intelligence is mostl...So, if the twins study prove intelligence is mostly heritable, since physical racial differences are heritable, means intelligence is racially heritable, since the brain is a physical element?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-34714664794396879482013-12-12T11:25:31.876-08:002013-12-12T11:25:31.876-08:00OT, but interesting:
High Court in Australia over...OT, but interesting:<br /><br />High Court in Australia overturns gay marriage: "The ACT legislation had allowed gay couples to marry inside the ACT, which includes the Australian capital, Canberra - regardless of which state they live in.<br /><br />Federal law, however, specified in 2004 that marriage was between a man and a woman."<br /><br /><br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25344219Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61494617676903003682013-12-12T10:52:52.863-08:002013-12-12T10:52:52.863-08:00Looks like girls and women might wind up in a diff...Looks like girls and women might wind up in a different social group than boys or men. A bride sold or stolen from her group would need to learn to conform.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-78065552847658158462013-12-12T10:31:11.728-08:002013-12-12T10:31:11.728-08:00I had an unusual family background. My parent had ...I had an unusual family background. My parent had just the one child but I was not an 'only child'. I was much less an 'only child' than most.<br /><br />My mother was an identical twin who grew up with her twin and went to work with her at the same time and for the same company. They each married and each immediately gave birth to a baby boy and quickly divorced. They moved back into the same house and raised their sons - Willie and me - together. When Willie and I grew up and moved out, they lived together for the rest of their lives. <br /><br />So they had the same genes and - as much as possible - the same environment. They were in a sense 'super twins'. They had always lived in the same county, and for most of their lives in the same house.<br /><br />Willie and I were genetically half brothers and grew up in the same household. That's why I'm hardly an 'only child'. My sibling was only three months older than me. We went to the same schools and had mostly the same friends. <br /><br />Our mothers were really some kind of Sci-Fi creature. One organism in two bodies. When one would begin a sentence the other would begin to speak a half second later in unison. It was a little eerie. When one would say something there was always an echo a few milliseconds later.<br /><br />When I read Heinlein's 'Time for the Stars' it seemed quite reasonable to me. I was well acquainted with the 'shared mind' phenomenon.<br /><br />AlbertosaurusPat Boylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13477950851915567863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68533360417948203752013-12-12T09:51:11.480-08:002013-12-12T09:51:11.480-08:005371: "Otherwise there would be some sort of ...5371: "Otherwise there would be some sort of correlation between bureaucratic effectiveness and success on the tests."<br /><br />I don't know how they administer PISA, but it could very well be that the failure to report scores is indicative of bureaucratic ineffectiveness at the local/proctor level, which would support that idea that low scores are more likely to be omitted.DPGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-29470701400304792062013-12-12T09:01:35.181-08:002013-12-12T09:01:35.181-08:00OT A SWPL write up of a Paul Walker Memorial in Ec...OT A SWPL write up of a Paul Walker Memorial in Echo Park. http://www.theawl.com/2013/12/the-paul-walker-memorial-in-echo-parkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-29285242323296208122013-12-12T08:12:51.583-08:002013-12-12T08:12:51.583-08:00"The fact that shared environmental variance ..."The fact that shared environmental variance tends to fade with age is irrelevant with respect to this study, because the GCSEs are high-stakes tests that determine the future educational career of the students. If you support meritocracy, eliminating the shared environmental variance in GCSE results is of great significance.<br /><br />These results are also quite at variance with recent discussions in the UK where it has been claimed that the shared environment makes little difference to academic achievement. It seems that differences between schools may be a major influence on the GCSEs."<br /><br />The problem with this argument is that there's no reason to believe that there is any non-oppressive way for society to "equalize" the shared environments.<br /><br />Remember the obvious components of such shared environments that go beyond schools per se: parents who communicate certain values, who teach by example and perhaps instruction various cognitive skills, peer groups who are generally oriented or not toward education, and all the perks of affluence.<br /><br />How do we "equalize" those environments, short of taking students away from their parents and raising them all alike, or busing students to homogenous schools, or taking money from affluent parents so that their children don't enjoy any special environment?<br /><br />It's a major mistake, I believe, to think that a significant portion of shared environment is effectively and justly manipulable by society.<br /><br />Of course, it may be in principle that it is largely, say, the teachers and the method of education that makes up the shared environment component here. But we have no reason at all to believe that--or at least certainly not based on this study.candid_observernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-25564509819195317742013-12-12T06:02:55.095-08:002013-12-12T06:02:55.095-08:00I'm a mirror twin (monozygotic but with mirror...I'm a mirror twin (monozygotic but with mirror symmetry). My twin and I, raised together until age 18 when I split for the other side of the country, indeed have spent our whole lives analyzing and mentally cataloging our differences, which extend to physical minutia, dexterity, choice patterns, beliefs, behavioral tendencies, psychology, etc.<br /><br />While we diverged at a certain point in our ambitions, we never thought of it as a way to avoid stepping on each other's toes in a competitive sense, though that may have been a subconscious influence.<br /><br />Instead, one big motivator to me was probably to finally get my own social group. High school was the last time anyone got me confused for my twin; most of the people I've known since then have never met him. Many don't know he exists.Power Childhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13365109338643310492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-74740380693791415152013-12-12T04:20:44.473-08:002013-12-12T04:20:44.473-08:00Very unlikely that any country really failed to te...Very unlikely that any country really failed to test its weaker performers with any consistency. Otherwise there would be some sort of correlation between bureaucratic effectiveness and success on the tests, whereas the real situation is closer to being opposite to this. I conjecture that the results of full samples would have been little different from those of partial ones. 5371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-20641059418754051602013-12-12T04:15:23.935-08:002013-12-12T04:15:23.935-08:00Steve, re my previous comment, as per -
http://w...Steve, re my previous comment, as per - <br /><br />http://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/against-biology/#comment-11355, by H Harpending<br /><br />In Python<br /><br />from scipy.stats import truncnorm<br /><br />truncnorm.mean(-0.8,inf)<br />Out: 0.36756142494764793<br /><br />from scipy.stats import norm<br /><br />norm.sf(-0.8)<br />Out: 0.78814460141660336<br /><br />truncnorm.mean(-1.25,inf)<br />Out: 0.2042254588986768<br /><br />norm.sf(-1.25)<br />Out: 0.89435022633314465<br /><br />So to shift the standard deviation up 0.367 of a standard deviation (5.46), the bottom 22% (1-0.788) of a normal distribution would be removed. <br /><br />Or to shift the standard deviation up 0.204 of a standard deviation (3.06), the bottom 10% (1-0.894) of a normal distribution must be removed.<br /><br />These shifts would need to be considered relative to scores in other nations. So Shanghai, for instance, might be advantaged by about 0.1 - 0.2 of an SD relative to where it would be relative to the USA, and about twice that relative to the Netherlands.<br /><br />(The example by H H I've linked shows how larger selective differentials would be needed for an equally larger heritable difference, due to less than perfect heritability, but this is not an issue for PISA "missing fractions" where the selected fraction are themselves being tested, not their kids).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-33695783926095637762013-12-12T03:50:07.352-08:002013-12-12T03:50:07.352-08:00We see identical twins performing at similarly hig...<i> We see identical twins performing at similarly high levels in sports, mostly in basketball where highly heritable height is so important</i><br /><br />I've been following the identical Harrison twins at Kentucky this season. Andrew is the point guard. Aaron is a two-guard. It's early yet, but Aaron looks more skilled, better shooter, less foul trouble, etc. Andrew gives off this grouchy old man vibe when things don't go his way on the court and he seems to get into frequent foul trouble. It will be interesting to see where these guys end up in the NBA draft relative to one another.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-47127425669967392992013-12-12T03:15:23.752-08:002013-12-12T03:15:23.752-08:00"You don’t need Austrian Economics, only peop..."You don’t need Austrian Economics, only people who could actually pass for “Austrian” to save civilization."<br /><br />Killer line of the year.<br /><br />http://stuffblackpeopledontlike.blogspot.com/2013/12/white-people-importing-civilization-to.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-86650302922644341972013-12-12T02:40:33.107-08:002013-12-12T02:40:33.107-08:00I love the Sailer manic phase posts. What was the ...I love the Sailer manic phase posts. What was the trigger? Was it the frickin' <i>Guardian</i> coming out with "Genetics accounts for more than half..."? Because that certainly does it for me. About the only thing that could top that would be "Milliband: Labor to propose air-drop deportation scheme with optional parachute sales cost-recovery program."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-46831900462721499272013-12-12T01:51:48.594-08:002013-12-12T01:51:48.594-08:00http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/10068...http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/10068823/ex-north-carolina-tar-heels-professor-charged-no-show-classAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com