tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post8129817522702668323..comments2024-03-28T16:22:14.888-07:00Comments on Steve Sailer: iSteve: Globalist responses to Japan and ChinaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger65125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-68281580483802198812010-02-25T07:47:25.887-08:002010-02-25T07:47:25.887-08:00If anyone here truly feels fiat currency is worthl...If anyone here truly feels fiat currency is worthless then feel free to give me all your money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-44864585808291456622009-02-23T20:13:00.000-08:002009-02-23T20:13:00.000-08:00Sorry for my late comment... I think Steve forgot ...Sorry for my late comment... I think Steve forgot Samsung and Korean electronics/gadgets in general in his blog post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-73379737428947382302009-02-20T13:26:00.000-08:002009-02-20T13:26:00.000-08:00in the end, the drive for near-term profits has ca...in the end, the drive for near-term profits has caused firms to gradually cut costs all down the supply chain while simultaneously raising prices. more careless spending during the credit/housing boom and a lag between a reduction in value to consumers and changed consumer buying decisions reflecting that change has masked a deterioration in intermediate and long term profit prospects of companies. I personally used to shop at Bed Bath and Beyond but now avoid it because the brand is a virtual guarantee that, whatever price or quality point I may decide to buy at, the price/value equation has been so carefully engineered to the benefit of the company that I will not get good value. Designer clothes are another example; an Armani knit polo now has worse construction and worse material than in the past but, pre-bust anyway, was also selling at much higher prices on an inflation adjusted basis than 10 years ago. When you look at the underlying material costs, some of these decisions at the company level seem perverse; leather or wools adding noticeable higher quality might add $5 of cost on a $200 item--just too much to ask. I buy made in france or portugal a lot, where the lack of "management sophistication" seems to coexist with a values oriented commitment to maintain quality levels.<BR/><BR/>The upshot is that (1) a lot of retailer and consumer brand firms are weaker even than the recessionary conditions might suggest, because their long term profit prognosis due to damaged brands is worse. this doesn't necessarily mean stocks are a bad buy now, just that this factor should be accounted for in any analysis. (2) productivity growth, the key to the economic future, has probably been overstated and inflation understated in the recent past; while prices have increased the level of "heuristic adjustment" to prices for quality improvements have probably been too high, as companies have run ahead of the economists and consumers in cleverly subtracting value. increased sophistication of somewhat cartelized retail firms at railroading consumers into limited options has facilitated this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-54713630182360635082009-02-20T05:54:00.000-08:002009-02-20T05:54:00.000-08:00"There's no need to panic even if 10 factories go ...<I>"There's no need to panic even if 10 factories go bankrupt every day," Luo Zhiqiang of Dongguan's labor bureau was quoted as saying.<BR/><BR/>According to Luo, this is a strategy of "emptying the cage for new birds".</I><BR/><BR/>It's interesting how China and the U.S. are taking opposite approaches to the financial crisis. The U.S. is spending trillions of dollars to bail out failing companies, whereas China seems to be practicing a form of economic Darwinism. Who will prevail?<BR/><BR/>I do think that China's plan to stimulate the economy through infrastructure projects will work out a lot better for them than the U.S., since they could actually, sorely use it. They're planning to build things like power grids, roads, and railroad lines. The U.S. will probably have a lot of frivolous light bulb changing/Big Dig type projects.<BR/><BR/>Although, ANY time the Chinese leadership goes up against the American leadership, I'll bet on the Chinese. I'll put my money on technocrats over politicians any day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-37492943145096592452009-02-20T04:33:00.000-08:002009-02-20T04:33:00.000-08:00The Chinese are probably second to none in the wor...The Chinese are probably second to none in the world with regards to the qality of craftsmanship and care and excellence in manufacture of products - better than the Germans even.<BR/> Yes, you might scoff - as you sneer at the cheap dime store toys, but consider this, the world renowned quality of Chinese textiles, ceramics, sculpture and other objets d'art that have been produced for millenia.<BR/> The very same qualities that made the Chinese excel in this handicrafts (probably a genetic predisposition for craftsmanship, together with a cultural elevation of the craftsman), are exactly the same transferrable skills that are neccessary for the design and production of the most intricate and complicated machines.<BR/> It is for this ancient reason that I have full faith in the Chinese - despite any guff an economics professor might poop out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-62941079823023960712009-02-19T22:09:00.000-08:002009-02-19T22:09:00.000-08:00Sink globally, react locally.Sink globally, react locally.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-21481910392723117662009-02-19T19:42:00.000-08:002009-02-19T19:42:00.000-08:00Guys, this whole problem is going to be self-corre...Guys, this whole problem is going to be self-correcting.<BR/><BR/>Globalism is based on cheap oil for nearly cost-free transportation, so that the cheap labor can be exploited.<BR/><BR/>As Peak Oil's bite really begins to be felt in the next few years, the shipping will become cost-prohibitive and local manufacturing will resume.<BR/><BR/>What must happen, though, is the border be controlled. As Mexico's Canterell Field continues its precipitous decline, we'll soon see Mexicans attempting to get into US at a rate that will make the current torrent look like a slow drip.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-30421409821346415572009-02-19T19:39:00.000-08:002009-02-19T19:39:00.000-08:00Lucius,With "exponential decay," you are making th...Lucius,<BR/><BR/>With "exponential decay," you are making the same mistaken assumption that lots of novice stock traders make; that is, extrapolating a trend to infinity.<BR/><BR/>Just because THIS generation is not reproducing itself does not mean the next won't. With more resources and land available due to a decline in population of the previous generation and a higher standard of living created by robotics, a sensible policy of nationalism can quickly persuade young women to have kids. Especially if society is specially arranged to make working and childrearing compatible: home based businesses, telecommuting; taking babe to work; tax breaks for the male breadwinner.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-22190241008697583452009-02-19T19:24:00.000-08:002009-02-19T19:24:00.000-08:00"WWII never ended: It was only continued by other ..."WWII never ended: It was only continued by other means. Any thinking person can see that."<BR/><BR/>Agreed. And we in US only THINK we won. Truth is, we woefully misidentified the enemy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-77068819022018452872009-02-19T19:16:00.000-08:002009-02-19T19:16:00.000-08:00"Japan is all the way there"Well it once was. In ..."Japan is all the way there"<BR/><BR/>Well it once was. In fact they were quite ahead.<BR/><BR/>Ranking Country Per capita GDP (1991) 1997<BR/>1. Kuwait ?<BR/>2. Switzerland 33,610<BR/>3. Japan: 26,930 <BR/>4. Sweden 25,110<BR/>5. Norway 24,220<BR/>6. Finland 23,980<BR/>7. Denmark 23,700<BR/>8. Germany 23,650<BR/>9. US 22,240 <BR/>10. Canada 20,440<BR/><BR/>But now Japan is quite behind the U.S. And I don't see that aging population catching up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41828027305427729992009-02-19T18:08:00.000-08:002009-02-19T18:08:00.000-08:00Note the service economy worshiping Brits at the b...Note the service economy worshiping Brits at the bottom of the pile there with the overpriced Range Rover - all style and no substance.Mike Courtmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15226171376902020196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-14368335771834743192009-02-19T17:04:00.000-08:002009-02-19T17:04:00.000-08:00"Chief - allow me to introduce you to this concept..."Chief - allow me to introduce you to this concept called Exponential Decay."<BR/><BR/>Lucius, allow me to introduce you to the concept of "extrapolating current trends forever doesn't always produce great results."<BR/><BR/>Once Japan is less crowded, the cost of a house isn't so high, men don't have to commute two hours each way on a train to work - do you think that birth rates might inch back up? <BR/><BR/>If not, there's plenty of time to deal with the problem. Even if the population falls in half for two generations, that means that there will still be 30 million Japanese in 60 years. That's far from extinction.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-17429002073394303772009-02-19T16:24:00.000-08:002009-02-19T16:24:00.000-08:00BTW, here's the full rankings from CR:1. Scion2. A...BTW, here's the full rankings from CR:<BR/><BR/>1. Scion<BR/>2. Acura<BR/>3. Honda<BR/>4. Toyota<BR/>5. Lexus<BR/>6. Infiniti<BR/>7. Subaru<BR/>8. Hyundai<BR/>9. Mitsubishi<BR/>10. Kia<BR/>lincoln<BR/>mazda<BR/>mini<BR/>nissan <BR/>mercury<BR/>volvo<BR/>ford<BR/>buick<BR/>porsche<BR/>bmw<BR/>suzuki<BR/>audi<BR/>saab<BR/>chevrolet<BR/>vw<BR/>gmc<BR/>mercedes<BR/>jeep<BR/>pontiac<BR/>dodge <BR/>cadillac<BR/>chrysler<BR/>saturn <BR/>land roverAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-53426354393403715732009-02-19T16:20:00.000-08:002009-02-19T16:20:00.000-08:00China certainly has the IQ and work habits to make...China certainly has the IQ and work habits to make quality products, but there may cultural, economic, and historical factors holding them back. <BR/><BR/>But Japanese-type culture is not always needed to make quality products, as shown by the example of Korea which has improved significantly over a short period of time. See this link: http://consumerist.com/5127337/the-10-most-reliable-car-brands-vs-your-preconceived-notions . In the top 10 most reliable car brands, 8 are Japanese and 2 are Korean (#8 and 10). The American brands range from a little to a lot worse and the Europeans are far down the list, even Mercedes and BMW. What I want to know is why can't the Americans and Europeans make good cars.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-84525016728256173042009-02-19T15:20:00.000-08:002009-02-19T15:20:00.000-08:00It's not as if the Chinese government doesn't know...<I>It's not as if the Chinese government doesn't know that they have a low value-added manufacturing based economy, and that there are limits to how much the economy can grow with that kind of model. That's why they're taking strong measures to change it [...]<BR/><BR/>Will it work? Who knows. But I see no reason why they can't follow in the footsteps of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.</I><BR/><BR/>On the one hand, yes, China is moving up the value-added chain. (The U.S. already runs a deficit with China in advanced technology products.)<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, the economic landscape in which Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan became wealthy nations, via the "export platform" strategy, has changed. The consumer nations on which these nations bootstrapped their economies, particularly the huge U.S. market, are tapped out - more than tapped out, as we all now realize that this consumption capacity was a debt-driven illusion. So it doesn't seem plausible to me that a huge nation like China can continue moving on up using these once-successful strategies, in a changed world. Can internal demand (or demand in other, emerging nations) be raised high enough, fast enough, to substitute? I dunno, but as it stands now, there doesn't seem to be enough demand in the world to continue to absorb the necessary amount of Chinese production.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-85878266376384082702009-02-19T15:17:00.000-08:002009-02-19T15:17:00.000-08:00READ:Kicking away the ladder by Ha-Ja-ChangWhen U...READ:Kicking away the ladder by Ha-Ja-Chang<BR/><BR/>When US labor markets were much less globalized-1945-50 -the real wage was growing and there was a significant narrowing of the economic gap between the top and bottom. Indisputable fact that all econmist are aware of. This is also corresponds to a time peiod when White Americans were a significant majority. Legal immigration levels were quite low also. Labor scarcities are very good indeed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-61151923717658654742009-02-19T13:36:00.000-08:002009-02-19T13:36:00.000-08:00DVD players are a poor choice of an example for qu...DVD players are a poor choice of an example for quality decline. <BR/><BR/>A two or three year old DVD player is essentially worthless. Check Craigslist. I just did, there are 102 DVD players for sale today in the SF Bay Area for ten dollars or less. Used top models of a few years ago are available for twenty dollars.<BR/><BR/>Newer DVD players are progressive scan - meaning they deinterlace the 480i data stream to accomodate your progressive scan plasma or LCD flat screen. Newer DVD players have optical (digital) outputs for audio or HDMI. Older players may only have composite or S-video outputs. <BR/><BR/>All TV broadcasters are going digital in the next few months. Should your DVD player continue to send out an analog signal?<BR/><BR/>You can buy a brand new DVD player at any Radio Shack for $50 but few do. They are waiting for Blu-ray players to get cheaper. Only two years ago Blu-ray players cost from $500 to $1,500. Today Sony Blu-ray players start in the low two hundreds. Blu-ray players also play DVDs. Quite soon it will be hard to find "DVD only" players.<BR/><BR/>Many "experts" think Blu-ray itseld will fail. A victim of VOD (Video On Demand). No one expects BD to replicate the DVD comercial success.<BR/><BR/>If technical obsolence comes in just two or three years, does it really make sense to invest equipment that lasts for decades?albertosaurushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13209465319904999278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-18980489949127418852009-02-19T13:25:00.000-08:002009-02-19T13:25:00.000-08:00I think Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, ...I think Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and China will eventually converge in development and per capita GDP similar to Western Europe. Let's simplify and say it is a 100 year process to fully develop. Japan is all the way there, Taiwan and Korea started 60 years ago and China started 30 years ago.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-9897895730104484282009-02-19T12:42:00.000-08:002009-02-19T12:42:00.000-08:00----Svigor said... and they are both phenomenally ...----Svigor said... <BR/>and they are both phenomenally beautiful with the oyster-like layers of metal, and, I'm told, amazingly sharp and durable.<BR/><BR/>They're roughly equivalent to the best European examples. Way overhyped vis-a-vis performance. They're pretty though.----<BR/><BR/><BR/>If you're looking for some good steel, try Mora and Marttiini knives. Fantastic products, great prices. Can't beat their firearms either. However, the ChiComs make some great weapons as well, idiot proof too!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-31083721016988516532009-02-19T11:31:00.000-08:002009-02-19T11:31:00.000-08:00Guys,China is moving up the technology/quality lad...Guys,<BR/><BR/>China is moving up the technology/quality ladder just like Japan did during the 50's-80's. Ask any older boomer and they will tell you that the Japanese produced cheap toys that broke easily when they were kids. By the 70's, they made good quality merchandise. It is certainly true that Chinese quality is not at Japanese standards. However, they are moving in that direction. Do consider that in 1980 China was as desperately poor as sub-Saharan Africa is today. The Koreans made junk 25 years ago and today their product quality is as good as the Japanese. The idea that the Chinese cannot move up the ladder like Japan and Korea is plain stupid (and I am justified in saying it this way).<BR/><BR/>Also, I resent the disparaging comments about Taiwan product quality and Taiwan economic development in general. The leading edge 300mm semiconductor foundries are all in Taiwan. Some of them use the same advanced process technology as Intel.<BR/><BR/>Having lived in Taiwan, I will tell that it is far easier (less bureaucracy and government regulation) to start any kind of technology company in Taiwan as it is in Japan (I have experience with both as I have lived and worked in technology in both countries).<BR/><BR/>I will tell you as someone who have lived and work in Japan, Taiwan, and Malaysia for 10 years and having been involved in technology start-ups in this region, that any western pundtis who have not done the same cannot make intelligent statements about the region. Having lived as in expat for 10 years, I consider myself to be infinitely more qualified to comment about the region than anyone who has not.<BR/><BR/>The ignorance of Americans who have not lived internationally is astounding.kurt9https://www.blogger.com/profile/02101147267959016924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-70498949177317476012009-02-19T09:49:00.000-08:002009-02-19T09:49:00.000-08:00Anonymous: You should also note that within China,...<B>Anonymous:</B> <I>You should also note that within China, certain groups (Hui Muslims, Fujianese, Zhejiangese, ethnic Koreans) are considered economically much more prosperous than the rest of the population. Urbanites are much more propserous than rural dweller. The rural-urban disparity is large enough that the government has mandated affirmative action in its universities. <BR/><BR/>So I feel it's a bit simplistic to use the southeastern diaspora and urban elites as the model for the entire China.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, and these are PRECISELY the parts of China where fertility rates are at or below 1.0 children per woman per fertile lifetime.<BR/><BR/>China has the very same fertility problem that we have, only the fertility rates of the productive part of their population are vastly lower than even the productive part of our population, and the breeders in China are disproportionately MUSLIM [as opposed to AME or Papist].Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-50132128908933414572009-02-19T09:43:00.000-08:002009-02-19T09:43:00.000-08:00jody: people can only even HAVE 1 child there by l...<B>jody:</B> <I>people can only even HAVE 1 child there by law. remove the law, and the population in china EXPLODES. it could reach 2 billion by 2100. china can make it's population boom any time it wants.</I><BR/><BR/>You know, ironically enough, I was just reading this old poem <A HREF="http://www.olimu.com/readings/GodsOfTheCopybookHeadings.htm" REL="nofollow">chez Derbyshire</A>:<BR/><BR/><I>...With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,<BR/><BR/>They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;<BR/><BR/>They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;<BR/><BR/>So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things...</I><BR/><BR/>If you don't get my drift here - extinction [as opposed to revival & resurgence] is the standard outcome for just about every culture known to archaeology.<BR/><BR/>For instance, <A HREF="http://k41.pbase.com/g3/61/669061/2/95636136.v4wYOuCg.jpg" REL="nofollow">this</A> is all that remains of the nation-state which produced <A HREF="http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/8974/title/A_Prayer_for_Archimedes" REL="nofollow">the greatest mathematician who ever walked the face of the earth</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-45717452289972842552009-02-19T09:26:00.000-08:002009-02-19T09:26:00.000-08:00The Chinese government has pretty good data on IQ ...The Chinese government has pretty good data on IQ by region. This is partially motivated by iodine deficiency problems in rural areas.<BR/><BR/>There is variation, but not that large and not what you might think. The provinces (e.g., Zhejiang) that have traditionally produced top scholars in the imperial examinations (in place for 1300 years!) also have high averages according to the data. Don't take the absolute score values too seriously as Flynn-related normalization hasn't been done carefully. But the relative values are meaningful.<BR/><BR/>Note SE regions like HK, Canton, Fujian are NOT known for producing top scholars.<BR/><BR/>2005 National Health Survey (google scholar<BR/><BR/>Zhejiang rural boy 116.23<BR/>Zhejiang average boy 115.82<BR/>Zhejiang men and women an average of 115.05<BR/>Beijing rural 114.9<BR/>Hangzhou City 114.7<BR/>Zhejiang rural girls 114.41<BR/>Zhejiang girls an average of 114.32<BR/>Wenzhou (5 counties average) 114.195<BR/>Beijing average 114.07<BR/>Zhejiang city girl 113.73<BR/>Zhejiang city boy, 113.46<BR/>Beijing city an average of 112.6<BR/>The national average 103.5<BR/><BR/>Hubei 111 urban children (prefecture-level cities and provincial towns)<BR/>Jilin average 107.04<BR/>Jiangsu average 109<BR/>Hubei county-level city and county 106.4<BR/>Hubei average boy 105.44<BR/>Hubei average 105.3<BR/>Sichuan 105.3<BR/>Hubei girls 105.1<BR/>Guangdong 103.4 or 101.1Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-41152371106690327812009-02-19T09:22:00.000-08:002009-02-19T09:22:00.000-08:00Chief Seattle: Lucius, a TFR of 1.2 isn't exactly ...<B>Chief Seattle:</B> <I>Lucius, a TFR of 1.2 isn't exactly the end of a civilization. It just means that the population will roughly half over the course of a generation. For crowded countries this may allow a much higher standard of living down the road.</I><BR/><BR/>Chief - allow me to introduce you to this concept called <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay" REL="nofollow">Exponential Decay</A>.<BR/><BR/>It's fast.<BR/><BR/>Real fast.<BR/><BR/>Like speed of light heading directly into the vacuum of oblivion fast.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9430835.post-64844358312019905142009-02-19T08:32:00.000-08:002009-02-19T08:32:00.000-08:00and they are both phenomenally beautiful with the ...<I>and they are both phenomenally beautiful with the oyster-like layers of metal, and, I'm told, amazingly sharp and durable.</I><BR/><BR/>They're roughly equivalent to the best European examples. Way overhyped vis-a-vis performance. They're pretty though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com