January 6, 2005

Years Married among blacks

http://www.iSteve.com/05JanA.htm#years.married.blacks

I invented the statistic "Average Years Married between 18 and 44" to give an easy-to-grasp understanding of marriage proclivities by state. It looks at the expected numbers of years a woman will be married in the 27 years from 18 and 44. For white women, it correlates at 0.91 with Bush's share of the vote in 2004.

Here's Years Married for black and white women (non-Hispanics):

State Blacks Whites Diff
District of Columbia 3.9 7.4 3.6
Pennsylvania 5.4 13.9 8.5
Wisconsin 5.4 14.6 9.2
West Virginia 5.8 15.3 9.4
New York 5.8 12.7 6.9
Illinois 5.9 14.2 8.3
Michigan 6.0 14.5 8.5
Ohio 6.2 14.5 8.4
Missouri 6.2 15.0 8.8
Connecticut 6.5 13.4 7.0
New Jersey 6.7 13.5 6.8
California 6.7 12.5 5.8
Iowa 6.8 15.1 8.4
Indiana 6.8 15.1 8.3
Massachusetts 6.8 12.2 5.4
Delaware 6.9 13.9 7.0
Kentucky 6.9 15.7 8.7
Nebraska 6.9 15.3 8.3
Minnesota 7.0 14.4 7.5
Tennessee 7.2 15.7 8.5
Rhode Island 7.2 12.6 5.4
Maine 7.4 13.8 6.4
Maryland 7.4 14.0 6.6
Louisiana 7.4 15.4 8.0
Oklahoma 7.6 15.8 8.2
Mississippi 7.6 16.5 8.9
Nevada 7.7 13.4 5.8
South Carolina 7.7 15.4 7.7
Oregon 7.7 13.9 6.1
Florida 7.8 13.6 5.8
Alabama 7.9 16.6 8.7
Arizona 7.9 13.7 5.8
Kansas 8.0 15.7 7.8
Georgia 8.0 15.6 7.6
Arkansas 8.0 16.5 8.5
North Carolina 8.2 15.5 7.4
Virginia 8.2 14.7 6.4
Texas 8.2 15.2 6.9
Washington 8.3 13.9 5.6
Wyoming 8.5 15.5 7.0
Vermont 8.5 13.4 4.9
Utah 9.0 17.0 8.0
Colorado 9.2 14.1 4.9
New Mexico 9.4 14.1 4.7
New Hampshire 9.7 14.0 4.2
South Dakota 11.2 15.7 4.5
Alaska 12.4 15.3 2.9
Montana 13.8 15.0 1.2
Idaho 14.0 16.3 2.3
North Dakota 15.8 15.5 (0.4)
Hawaii 16.0 14.1 (1.9)

It looks like there's a negative correlation between the size of the black urban ghetto in a state and the years married for black women.

The states with very high average years married tend to have very small numbers of blacks and high interracial marriage rates for blacks. Also, a lot of the blacks in states like Hawaii, North Dakota, and Alaska got there with the U.S. military, and black enlistees in the military tend to come from more middle class backgrounds than blacks in general.

There's a moderate correlation between blacks being married and the state as a whole voting more conservatively in 2004: r = 0.40.

The correlation between years married for blacks and whites in a state is only r = 0.34. This high degree of random variation suggests that blacks are not closely tied into the culture of the whites in the state.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

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