Gary Brecher on Lebanon

War Nerd: "War is just demographics in a hurry." The War Nerd is back after a layoff (I hope his health is all right -- he mentioned some problem awhile ago) with an overview of Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon:

War is just demographics in a hurry. And Lebanon's demographics are as wobbly as the San Andreas Fault. A hundred years ago, the majority in Lebanon was a bunch of diehard Christian Arabs who called themselves "Maronites." But their majority was shrinking fast. A lot of Maronite families had emigrated (to run cheap menswear stores in the US, mostly), and a lot of Muslims had moved in.

The Muslims didn't emigrate as much; they just didn't have the money. So they did what poor folks do: stayed home and had babies. Pretty soon the Muslims were the majority.

Nobody knows exactly how big a majority, because nobody's taken a census in Lebanon for fifty years [73 to be precise, I believe]. For one thing it's too dangerous-you wouldn't want to go knocking on doors in Beirut, asking total strangers touchy ethnic and religious questions for minimum wage, would you?

For another, the Christians don't want anybody counting noses because they know most of those noses would be Muslim.

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