California going its own way

Republicans are doing fairly well out west. Arnold Schwarzenegger appears to be cruising to re-election, helped along by the Democratic candidate Phil Angelides bearing an unfortunate resemblance to Ichabod Crane from "The Headless Horseman" (and not the Johnny Depp Ichabod Crane from the Tim Burton movie). In California, that matters.

But, more strikingly, Tom McClintock, a genuine conservative, has a small lead for Lt. Governor. [Well, now he has fallen behind, but he's done well.]

It looks like Democrats will narrowly win most of the other Sacramento elective offices, but the Democratic Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante's bid to be Insurance Commissioner is going down in flames. Bustamamante could have been elected governor in the 2003 special election by just running as what he always was, a moderate to conservative Democrat, while letting Schwarzenegger and McClintock split the GOP vote. But, bizarrely, Bustamante decided to campaign as if he was running for gobernador de Mexifornia, making illegal alien appreciation the main theme of his campaign, with predictably disastrous results. This time, Cruz ran as the weigh loss candidate, making his recent diet the centerpiece of his campaign. His defeat might say something in favor of the seriousness and non-superficiality of California voters, if it wasn't for the fact that even after he lost all that weight, he's still ugly.

In the LA Times exit poll, illegal immigration was listed as the most important issue by Schwarzenegger voters. I doubt if Schwarzenegger will do much about it ...

According to the national exit poll, Schwarzenegger won 60% of the white vote, 59% of the Asian vote, an above average 26% of the black vote (California blacks are a little more conservative than nationally, but that's still good), but only 34% of the Hispanic vote. California Hispanics are a little to the left of the national Hispanic voter, so that's not too bad for Schwarzenegger, but not very good either, especially considering he's running as a liberal Republican. In California, the white-Hispanic gap was 26 points (60-34), compared to nationally in the House races where it is now 22 points (51-29 at last count). So, Schwarzenegger won big in California despite losing in a landslide among Hispanics. For the last decade, the media has promoted the implicit myth that Hispanics in California cast Magic Ballots, worth far more than other voters' ballots. In truth, they (still) count every vote the same.

The Asian figure is very good for a Republican these days.

We'll see if Schwarzenegger can stay interested in his job for the next four years until he is term-limited out. I would guess he'd run for Senator after that, being constitutionally unable to run for President, and probably not a likely candidate for Secretary-General, Pope, Dalai Lama, Galactic Overlord or other jobs suitable to his ego. Half the time I think that having a steroid-powered bodybuilder-action hero as governor of the biggest state is a sign that it won't take 500 years for the America of "Idiocracy" to arrive. And the other half of the time, I think that Schwarzenegger really is something special.

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer