Obama's Super Tuesday Demographics

A reader has made up a handy table of Democratic Demographics on Super Tuesday. For convenience, I'll excerpt just the Obama numbers, along with what % each minority makes up of the Democratic voters in that state:

	Obama's	Share	of Vote		% of Dem. Voters
State	White	Black	Hisp.		Black %	Hisp. %
Georgia	40	87			51
Alabama	25	84			51
Tennessee	26	77			29
Delaware	40	86			28
Illinois	57	93			24
New Jersey	31	82	30		23	12
Missouri	39	84			17
Arkansas	16	74			17
New York	37	61	26		16	10
Connecticut	48	74	53		9	6
Arizona	38	79	41		8	18
California	42	78	29		6	29
Massachusetts	40	66	36		6	5
Oklahoma	29				6
New Mexico	55		36		3	34
Utah	55				2	7
Simple Avg.	39	79	36

The "Simple Average" is the mean not weighted by size of state.

A reader points out that Obama's California exit poll numbers are inflated:

Unless I made a mistake with my calculator, these exit polling numbers for Obama aren't correct, i.e. they don't match his actual vote count, being a few points too high.

Normally, they'd be "adjusted" to tie-out with the final results (that included a huge number of mailed ballots), but I'd half suspect that the media was reluctant to lower the initial (inflated) non-black numbers which they'd shown.

Since his Hispanic and Asian numbers are already pretty low, I'll bet his white numbers are the inflated ones. They should probably be about 7 points lower.

Perhaps the other states are too?

Also, keep in mind that exit polls' figures for a demographic group's share of the vote are, by necessity, largely rigged. The polling company guesses ahead of time that Hispanics will cast X % of the vote, so they decide to hire Y Spanish-speaking pollsters and conduct interviews in Z Hispanic-dominant precincts.

For example, I doubt that Hispanic voters outnumber black voters 29% to 6% among Democrats in California. Perhaps Hispanics were less likely to use absentee ballots, which have become hugely popular, and more likely to show up at the polls and thus be exit poll-interviewed?

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer