When McCain and Obama were Hispandering recently, Audacious Epigone got sick of hearing from the innumerate media about how important immigrant ethnic groups are in key swing states in the Presidential election. So, he sat down and crunched the numbers from the Obama v. McCain polls summarized at the CNN election center website. It turns out that 2008 is shaping up just like 2004 and 2000: the battleground states are white and black, while Hispanics and Asians are concentrated in uncompetitive states like California and Texas.
| White | Hispanic | Black | Asian | Other | |
| Competitive | 73.7 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Uncompetitive | 59.6 | 20.2 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 |
Keep in mind that these percentages are for residents, not voters. Hispanic and Asian residents vote at much lower rates than white and black residents. The actual percentages of voters by ethnicity will be significantly skewed more toward whites and blacks. So, the Electoral College results will be determined overwhelmingly by whites and blacks.
My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
As Steve has said regarding previous elections, again the competitive states primarily fall into two categories:
ReplyDelete- Great Lakes Blue Collar states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin, whose populations are primarily white and black.
- Clean Green states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Oregon, whose populations are heavily white.
The Hispanic percentage in competitive states is bolstered a couple of points by Florida, where Hispanic voter concerns regarding immigration are different than in the rest of the country.
In '04, of the ten most competitive states in the 2004 election, only two are proportionally more Hispanic than the nation at large, New Mexico (third closest) and Nevada (seventh closest). The other eight (in order of competitiveness)--Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Oregon, have (far) smaller Hispanic proportions of their total populations than the country does as a whole.
Audacious Epigone got sick of hearing from the innumerate media about how important immigrant ethnic groups are in key swing states in the Presidential election
ReplyDeleteRepublican leaders realy miss the point, anyway. When they talk about how crucial it is to attract the "growing Hispanic vote" they're betraying their own base. GOP voters don't want Republicans - we want conservatives.
Steve, you seem to be ignoring your earlier writings. McCain's pandering to Hispanics is not really aimed at Hispanics per se but to status-conscious whites, who are "concerned" about "latino issues" and generally about social justice and an end to racism and all other bad things.
ReplyDeleteThese people will vote for a white, old man, but they don't like it, especially when Obama is running. But they can make themselves feel better if McCain is seen as being pro-immigration and pro-Hispanic.
It's all about status-seeking whites.
So, the Electoral College results will be determined overwhelmingly by whites and blacks.
ReplyDeleteAnd because blacks always vote Democrat, it would be more accurate to say that the Electoral College Results will be determined overwhelmingly by whites.
Of course, some might say that this entire exercise was superfluous, as white votes are the only votes up for grabs in any election.
Republicans do what they do on immigration for campaign contributions from cheap labor interest. They try to cover this up by misleading their potential supporters into believing that they are doing it for the Hispanic vote.
ReplyDeleteThose who vote for one of the major candidates in the general election in uncompetitive states are throwing their votes away. Instead, what they should do is vote third party. This will have more impact.
ReplyDeleteChuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party appears to have the best position on immigration.
http://www.constitutionparty.com/
"Steve, you seem to be ignoring your earlier writings. McCain's pandering to Hispanics is not really aimed at Hispanics per se but to status-conscious whites, who are "concerned" about "latino issues" and generally about social justice and an end to racism and all other bad things.
ReplyDeleteThese people will vote for a white, old man, but they don't like it, especially when Obama is running. But they can make themselves feel better if McCain is seen as being pro-immigration and pro-Hispanic.
It's all about status-seeking whites."
Those people are already voting Obama. McCain could appeal to the vast majority of whites who oppose immigration and affirmative action and dislike black militants, but he won't.
Its not that McCain is appealing to status seeking whites who don't want to vote for a white male. He IS a status seeking white who feels guilty about being an old white male. He's not going to cut into the Stuff White People like vote and even McCain is smart enough to know it.