On New Year's Eve, the tuxedo rental shop on the corner was so sold out that they had stripped all the mannequins in the windows and rented out the dummies' tuxes.
Bad indicator Steve. Private sector employment according the BLS peaked at 115 million or so in 2007, and has declined to about 100 million presently. That's a decline of around 13%. Public sector employment declined 1% (around half a million) from its peak that same year, it is currently around 54 million or so.
No real fundamentals are pushing the economy upwards. We still are printing money, have deficits increase from $500 billion under Bush to $2.8 Trillion now and projected $8 trillion annually under Obama. Oil is at the upper end of the OPEC band of $70-$80, Iran and Russia are both clearly doing what they can to push it upwards. Saudi can pump oil with profits as low as $30 a barrel, Iran/Russia and Venezuela because of declining production and no real investment for decades require oil more around $120 and upwards. Iraq's potential production of 6 billion barrels a day rivaling Saudi is a pretty clear threat to them.
The one global bright spot is the BRIC countries but they seem riding a commodities boom as mostly China restocks its raw material inventories, and China's estimated $2.4 trillion stimulus (which consists mostly of lots of steel, and other finished products that will have to be dumped onto the world market hammering other nations manufacturing concerns).
Hollywood did well this year, returned to 2006 ticket sales (number of tickets sold). That's something I guess. But unemployment in California is officially around 15%.
Bad indicator Steve. Private sector employment according the BLS peaked at 115 million or so in 2007, and has declined to about 100 million presently.
Thanks Whiskey. I'm sure Steve really concluded that the recession was over, so it was nice of you to correct him. It's not like Steve is stats savvy or something.
I reckon Steve wrote this snippet to lull Whiskey into another finger-wagging session.
Russia btw has been investing into oil/gas-handling infrastructure using mostly German equipment and expertise. This is why the White House (Brzezinski) is worried about the new Russian/German rapprochement. Unlike with Schröder, who was in Putin's palm, the relation between Merkel and Putin is professional coz most Germans favor Russia over the US. Same with Russians. Figures coz Russia is an old rival/ally on the European content whilst the US is more of a Nouveau-riche superpower sticking its nose uninvited into continental business.
As for Germany, they are using the "recession" (mostly a US issue) as a smokescreen to clean up the public debt created by 30-years of socialist pandering with handouts. The silent hope of many is that this recession will eventually lead to another monetary reform.
headache said: "I reckon Steve wrote this snippet to lull Whiskey into another finger-wagging session."
I don't think so. Steve seems pretty inner-directed so I'm guessing he writes the kind of thing he'd like to read. Of course, the existence of this blog implies his desire for an audience but I suspect he chooses his topics for their innate interest to himself rather than to provoke a response from his readers.
In any case, his note of holiday cheer was certainly welcome, especially after the entry on Babs Ehrenreich who apparently hopes to elevate herself from grump to curmudgeon by recasting her glum outlook as a righteous attack on the mindlessly sunny right.
For a time in the 1920s, it seemed as the German Depression was over as long as the Germans borrowed US money. When US went belly up in 1929, Germany spiraled downward. We better pray China continues to do well.
Premature predictions of recovery were a staple of the last Depression and will feature in this one also (I don't mean the people with tongue planted firmly in cheek like Mr. Sailer). The economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts points out that no one in authority has any incentive to tell the truth: politicians fear retribution at the ballot box, newspapers are at the mercy of their advertisers, big business wants you to buy, buy, buy (cf, the tuxedo store splurge).
I didn't know until yesterday that people would actually rent tuxes for this holiday. Seriously? Do people hate money?
ReplyDeleteSo the point is the tuxes went from one set of dummies onto another?
ReplyDeleteBad indicator Steve. Private sector employment according the BLS peaked at 115 million or so in 2007, and has declined to about 100 million presently. That's a decline of around 13%. Public sector employment declined 1% (around half a million) from its peak that same year, it is currently around 54 million or so.
ReplyDeleteNo real fundamentals are pushing the economy upwards. We still are printing money, have deficits increase from $500 billion under Bush to $2.8 Trillion now and projected $8 trillion annually under Obama. Oil is at the upper end of the OPEC band of $70-$80, Iran and Russia are both clearly doing what they can to push it upwards. Saudi can pump oil with profits as low as $30 a barrel, Iran/Russia and Venezuela because of declining production and no real investment for decades require oil more around $120 and upwards. Iraq's potential production of 6 billion barrels a day rivaling Saudi is a pretty clear threat to them.
The one global bright spot is the BRIC countries but they seem riding a commodities boom as mostly China restocks its raw material inventories, and China's estimated $2.4 trillion stimulus (which consists mostly of lots of steel, and other finished products that will have to be dumped onto the world market hammering other nations manufacturing concerns).
Hollywood did well this year, returned to 2006 ticket sales (number of tickets sold). That's something I guess. But unemployment in California is officially around 15%.
Bad indicator Steve. Private sector employment according the BLS peaked at 115 million or so in 2007, and has declined to about 100 million presently.
ReplyDeleteThanks Whiskey. I'm sure Steve really concluded that the recession was over, so it was nice of you to correct him. It's not like Steve is stats savvy or something.
I reckon Steve wrote this snippet to lull Whiskey into another finger-wagging session.
ReplyDeleteRussia btw has been investing into oil/gas-handling infrastructure using mostly German equipment and expertise. This is why the White House (Brzezinski) is worried about the new Russian/German rapprochement. Unlike with Schröder, who was in Putin's palm, the relation between Merkel and Putin is professional coz most Germans favor Russia over the US. Same with Russians. Figures coz Russia is an old rival/ally on the European content whilst the US is more of a Nouveau-riche superpower sticking its nose uninvited into continental business.
As for Germany, they are using the "recession" (mostly a US issue) as a smokescreen to clean up the public debt created by 30-years of socialist pandering with handouts. The silent hope of many is that this recession will eventually lead to another monetary reform.
headache said: "I reckon Steve wrote this snippet to lull Whiskey into another finger-wagging session."
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. Steve seems pretty inner-directed so I'm guessing he writes the kind of thing he'd like to read. Of course, the existence of this blog implies his desire for an audience but I suspect he chooses his topics for their innate interest to himself rather than to provoke a response from his readers.
In any case, his note of holiday cheer was certainly welcome, especially after the entry on Babs Ehrenreich who apparently hopes to elevate herself from grump to curmudgeon by recasting her glum outlook as a righteous attack on the mindlessly sunny right.
For a time in the 1920s, it seemed as the German Depression was over as long as the Germans borrowed US money. When US went belly up in 1929, Germany spiraled downward. We better pray China continues to do well.
ReplyDeletePremature predictions of recovery were a staple of the last Depression and will feature in this one also (I don't mean the people with tongue planted firmly in cheek like Mr. Sailer). The economist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts points out that no one in authority has any incentive to tell the truth: politicians fear retribution at the ballot box, newspapers are at the mercy of their advertisers, big business wants you to buy, buy, buy (cf, the tuxedo store splurge).
ReplyDelete