Via Invasive Exotic Species, here's a Census Bureau graph of top ten net flows between California and other American states in 1955-1960 (red) and 1995-2000 (blue). In the later 1950s, all the net flows were toward California. In the later 1990s, all the net flows were out of the Golden State, except for a thin influx from New York, probably to work in then-booming Silicon Valley and Hollywood.
And yet, the total population of California grew by over 2 million from 1995 to 2000.
And yet, the total population of California grew by over 2 million from 1995 to 2000.
Art Laffer was on Bloomberg TV Monday, talking about how high taxes were driving the wealthy out of California. But the only wealthy person I can think of who left because of taxes is Art Laffer (who moved from San Diego to Nashville). As that WSJ article you linked to noted, there's been a net in-migration to California of those making $200k+; it's the lower income folks who are leaving.
ReplyDeleteLaffer also talked about businesses leaving the state, but have any major Silicon Valley firms left? I can't think of any. And many of them have opened big offices in New York, which is also expensive. They go where the talent is, or where the talent wants to go. Taxes aren't their primary consideration (though some firms have gotten relief at the local level, with San Francisco successfully luring a few from the Valley).
They're?????
ReplyDeleteIs this a joke or a spell-check error?
They should wall you lunatics in, you're ruining every state that blue arrow goes to.
ReplyDeleteDave,
ReplyDeleteBoth Northrup Grumman and SAIC have moved their corporate headquarters out of California for tax and regulatory purposes.
i never understand the obsession with Silicon Valley considering how few people those corporations emloy and how quickly many of them go out of business.
It makes sense that the middle class if moving out of a state where the most successful companies employ relatively few people and only employ Ivy League graduates.
@Tom and Frayed. You made me look.
ReplyDeleteNeither the first commenter nor Sailer used the "they're" contraction. Did thei?
Your wrong Steve in the 1990's La County only grew about about 7 percent while Riverside grew about aobut 40 percent and the Orange County about 18 percent, so the whites from other states went to Riverside and Orange and San Diego not La. La in the 1980's and 1990's lost whites at high levels not replacement that much by people back east.
ReplyDeleteIn fact Orange and San Diego didn't lose much whites until the 200's when Bush pushed to get everyone a loan and white flight to other states became more popular in the OC and San Diego since the houses became to expensive if was the first time that Orange County lost more whites than La did. The first flight was not because the housing was expensive in the ealry 1990's that much but was because of aeorspace, George W Bush made the more popular so calif counties like Orange, Riverside and San Diego less popular by pumping up the prices.
ReplyDeleteImmirgation is one factor and I think even if Texas is cheap that whites by 2030 if the population keeps shifting to Hispanics will still looking somewhere else. Hispanic growth eventually slows white growth. Arizona and Nevada are starting to lose their attractions.
ReplyDeleteI agree that New Yorkers go to the Bay area but La has less job opportunties than San Diego for good paying jobs La County is behind the average icnome of both Orange and San Diego so they both have better paying jobs on average than La. La just has some good paying jobs and lots of poor paying jobs compared to the other metro areas.
ReplyDeleteOC’s stable of apparel companies gets bigger with Fox Head’s global HQ move to Irvine This is another industry that led to So Calif woes the apparel indsutry, during the 1980's and 1990's La was the capital and lots of women sewing are here illegality. In the 1980's and 1990's La's white population left to other parts of So Ca and other states.
ReplyDeleteConservatives don't want to here this but another reason why California stop getting so many folks from other states is prop 13 put a cap on school spending and the almost free higher education of the 1970's was gone by the 1980's. A lot of east coast and midwest folks that spend a lot on the public schools like Ca when it did that and even made higher education cheap once prop 13 came in you could not built a high school with a swimming pool and the UC system was no longer almost free.
ReplyDeleteDave Pinsen:
ReplyDeleteThat's because bigger businesses and wealthier individuals have enough loopholes and tax avoidance schemes that make them immune for the most part from the actions of politicians. Apple is still physically based in Cupertino, California, but is mostly based in Reno, Nevada on paper. Hollywood pays almost no taxes because of this:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/
So California's two marquee industries doesn't pay the taxes that California's onerous tax rates suggests they should. That's because taxes are only for the little people.
Can you believe Nevada? Talk about a blank slate.
ReplyDeleteHi Steve!
ReplyDeleteThis is a little off-topic but the Daily Mail in Britain has just published a map of the world by internet traffic and the planet falls into neat little racial/cultural zones.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290342/Analyses-TEN-MILLION-emails-revealed-countries-not.html
I wonder if the same information is available for US states.
Today's edition of the paper has an article on pornography viewing by country. The results are "interesting".
"But the only wealthy person I can think of who left because of taxes is Art Laffer"
ReplyDeleteafter phil mickelson started making noise this year about leaving, another famous golfer who left california a decade earlier to avoid taxes came to his defense. i can't quite remember his name, he's on television all the time though, his every move seems to be super important, and ESPN even feels the need to inform us who's he's dating currently. so wow, he must be really, REALLY important. but i can't quite think of this golfer's name...
what what truly 1984-esque was how some of the media bashed mickelson for even saying anything. how dare you talk about tax rates, seemed to be the message. don't you know that's off limits?
these are the same people who, a decade earlier, had nothing to say when serena williams won her first or second major tennis championship. then, when offered the chance to meet president clinton, which it was thought would be considered an honor, williams accepted, only to, when she did meet clinton, immediately accost him about why he was taking half of her money for winning the US open.
she thought she had just done great, finally getting to the top of her sport and winning a major payday, only to see the goverment's hand reach in and take most of it.
this was considered a funny footnote to the williams-clinton meeting. not once, ever, was williams bashed for making her first question to the president about tax rates.
The red part looks like a map of my own travels. I packed up my Beetle and headed out of Washington DC back then. That night it was five below zero.
ReplyDeleteIt's now a beautiful winter sunny day in Oakland California. It's true that Jerry Brown is screwing up the California that that drew me across the the whole continent. But he hasn't been able to mess up the weather (yet).
Basically Brown has found a way to convert sunshine into tax dollars. Oakland has the best climate in America and the Democrats make you pay for it.
Albertosaurus
Make the chart show all of North America and suddenly it looks a lot different.
ReplyDeleteAll the plebs are brown
ReplyDeleteAnd top guys are gay
I've been for a walk
on a winter day
I'd be lame and dumb
If I stayed in LA
California steaming
on such a winter day
the graph is missing the arrows from Asia and latin America, which almost certainly dwarf everything else.
ReplyDelete"Whites gone, Latinos and Asians in. I'd say Blade Runner was on to something."
ReplyDeleteDid BLADE RUNNER have lots of Hispanics? I think it was mostly Asians and white punkish types.
It was ruled by globalist corporatism, which is like US today.
But who would be the replicants in today's LA?
"Did 'Blade Runner' have Hispanics"--after that I'd be amazed you'd ever show your face on the Internet again, Anonymous.
ReplyDeleteSo what was happening in the late 50s to bring those migrants to (apparently) Redding/Shasta County
"Can you believe Nevada? Talk about a blank slate."
ReplyDeletei was there and witnessed the transformation first hand.
thousands of people leaving LA and heading for las vegas every month. another thousand illegal aliens coming in from mexico every month.
only takes a decade of that and game over.
"Whites gone, Latinos and Asians in. I'd say Blade Runner was on to something."
blade runner showed LA 2019 as a japanese colony. in real life, it's mexico city. and the japanese are gone. the predominant asian group is the chinese, or, socially, the koreans.
Laffer also talked about businesses leaving the state, but have any major Silicon Valley firms left?
ReplyDeleteWho cares? In terms of raw numbers Silicon Valley firms don't employ very many people. They just have a lot of exposure.
"blade runner showed LA 2019 as a japanese colony."
ReplyDeleteNo, it was like the entire world had been colonized by Tyrell Corporation.
A lot of the Asians seemed Chinese or Southeast Asian.
Anonymous said..."Conservatives don't want to here this but another reason why California stop getting so many folks from other states is prop 13 put a cap on school spending ...and the UC system was no longer almost free"
ReplyDeleteNonsense. CA public schools are less attractive to whites from other states because they're increasingly filled with dullards.
Money is fungible. CA could easily continue to spend on its schools like it once did if it so chose. Prop 13 didn't "put a cap on school spending", it put a cap on the rate of increase in property tax assessments. Yes, I know that local property taxes were a big a driver of school spending. Adjust. It was 35 years ago yet the left still whines as if it was yesterday. How awful that people can't be taxed out of their homes.
Two, as a a long-time CA resident, I'm glad to see the UC (and CSU) system no longer "almost free". Heaven forbid some "womyn's studies" majors pay for their own "education". The lunatics at Berkeley have no claim on my money.
As for local schools - my kids left the public school system after the 2nd grade. Our historically 90% white elementary school in an upper-middle class Bay Area suburb became about 30% mexican - the mexican kids were nice enough but they were constantly behind and the school was devoting more and more resources to trying to catch them up. Their parents couldn't be bothered to help of course, and also didn't participate in any of the PTA activities, whether cleaning school grounds or having fund-raisers (to help fund teacher's assistants to help catch up the mexican kids). Resources being a zero-sum game in the near-term, the higher achieving white and asian kids were increasingly left to work on their own. My kids' had level of homework that would boggle your mind - until you realized the school was pushing their duties onto white parents so they could pay attention to the mexicans.
So I'm glad one avenue out of many that CA uses to gouge money out of me has been choked off. BTW, this is the natural end game for ceaseless immigration: people no longer consider other CA or US residents their countrymen and are less willing to make sacrifices to help them.
Blade Runner was a typically upper-class white's huge miss: that LA would be full of Asians doing genetic engineering in sidewalk bazaars. Scott must have done his consulting with a young Tyler Cowen.
ReplyDeleteA Clockwork Orange missed in retrospect as well; a chav with married parents in clean, modern surroundings and not a wog in sight.
People aren't kidding when they say that California filled up with Midwesterners in the 50s and 60s. According to that migration map,
ReplyDeleteIllinois led the nation with 100,000 migrants to California between 1955-1960. That's just slightly more than New York's 98,900. But when you add Ohio's 69,000 and Michigan's 68,000, there were a whole lotta people from the Great Lakes flocking into California roughly 50+ years ago.
"Did 'Blade Runner' I funny thing is Dick actually live in Santa Ana in the 1970's, so he didn't think that Mexicans would be the largest group.
ReplyDeleteLaffer is another conservative inc guy but he actually voted for Clinton. Between him and Jack Kemp I pick Laffer. Kemp supported minorities that lead to Bushes stupid housing plan.
ReplyDeleteWell, Bush and Obama put the coffin on California but maybe the expensive housing will attract some of the wealthy and illegals and their children will continue to move to the inland counties and then places like Texas.
ReplyDeleteAnd yet, the total population of California grew by over 2 million from 1995 to 2000.
ReplyDeleteThat's because the Census Bureau didn't include states like Oaxaca, Michoacan, Sinaloa, etc. The horizontal line is red, but the vertical one would be blue.
Came in 1977 from Florida. At the time there were about 10,000 private sector engineering jobs in the Bay Area working in my industry.
ReplyDeleteToday - maybe 200 jobs total and my employer (based in Pennsylvania) just cut 20% of our Silicon Valley office (including me.)
In our local professional society, there are 2 members with real, private sector jobs - the others are students at Berkeley or government employees or retirees.
North Carolina got most of the jobs after offering ridiculous tax bounties.
As for me, if not a foreign job in Abu Dhabi or Taiwan, it will be a reserve-Joad to Back East sometime in 2013.
The state is screwing itself into the dirt. I'd stay and continue to fight the decline but gotta eat.
California is simply no longer an attractive or desirable place for whites to live, unless they are very wealthy.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly Blade Runner was set in 2019, just six years from now. Although they seemed to have got the dominant ethnicity wrong, (Orientals instead of hispanics), I would imagine many whites in L.A. and elsewhere would feel just as alienated and marginalized as Deckard did. When the movie came out in 1982 it was not considered a success but it has gained in popularity every year since. I have always suspected that some of this was do to a growing feeling of whites being able to relate to Deckard's cultural and social isolation.
I guess all those liberal whites who keep moving away from Cali must all have narrow faces.
ReplyDeleteProblem is, they're moving to the south where they're gonna screw up an otherwise productive, sensible region with their pot-headed ideology.
"California is simply no longer an attractive or desirable place for whites to live, unless they are very wealthy"
ReplyDeleteThat could be said about large portions of the US.
Evil Sandmich said...
ReplyDeleteThey should wall you lunatics in, you're ruining every state that blue arrow goes to.
Fleeing the dysfunction caused by the liberal policies that are destroying the richest piece of real estate on the planet, they immediately start to vote for the very same policies in their new home states, either oblivious to cause and effect or compelled by a self-destructive unreason to foul their own nests.
Nevada and Arizona won't be nearly so hard to ruin.
Blade Runner was a typically upper-class white's huge miss
ReplyDeleteUh, no, the author behind the BR source story worked the same motif throughout his other writings, including one premised entirely on N. California as a Japanese colonial outpost, and anyway wasn't attempting to "predict the future" for aggrieved HBD web critters to discuss 50 years later.
In Santa Ana of the 1970s Mexicans weren't the largest group. Philip K. Dick was a Bay Area type both by upbringing and temperament so why would he even be interested in the gardener/busboy/nanny black-market revolution that took place in Reagan-Clinton-era SoCal? Rather than invoke it as some proof of faulty fortune-telling you ought to meditate instead on how quickly a motivated elite can change the demographics of Los Angeles's most famous "bedroom community."
ReplyDeleteDick lived in a city that was already 30 percent Mexican I know because a lot of the Hispanic students went to my high school were from Santa Ana by 1980 it was already 48 percent it wasn't that white even in the 1970's. Dick knew that La was going pretty Hispanic by the late 1970's, so he should have had Hispanics instead of Asians being the biggest group in La in the future.
ReplyDeleteEveryone in soc Calif knew that Hispanics outnumbered Asians and would continue for a long time,most didn't think they would make up 45 percent like they did today but most certainly knew that Asians would not outnumber hispanics.
ReplyDelete"i never understand the obsession with Silicon Valley considering how few people those corporations emloy and how quickly many of them go out of business."
ReplyDeleteEasy money. That very churn became the attraction after, say, 1990. Easy money for the big WS investement banks. When they do an IPO they pretty much legally print money. All they need to do is assure that the company's valuation formulas work out legal, with sufficient number of engineers with degrees, for instance (those degrees can be from Burma, for all that matters). Then just print that amount of stock and sell it to all the s*&&^%s! The long term prospects of the startup are of the least concern, those buying (often at discount courtesy of your friendly investment banker) and selling the stock in the initial IPO make the real money...
I get the impression the legal environment goes back to the gold rush. Selling stocks in goldmines, selling stocks in shacky startups, all pretty much the same. If you can't do IPOs you can always flip companies. There are lots of fees and commisions to be made all around by financial types skilled in keeping things just barely legal. A good example of the type is Frank Quattrone. The amount of money he's made makes people sit up and notice.