I'm just too darn optimistic

A couple of days ago, I wrote:

To take the most relevant example, approximately 70% of the black population of New Orleans got out before the levees broke. Of the 100,000 or so who were stuck, it's likely that the great majority came from the bottom half of the black population. Among the black males left in New Orleans, it would be likely that around half would end up with criminal records during their lifetimes.

Today, the AP reports:

Half Katrina Refugees Have Records
Thursday, September 22, 2005
MIDDLETOWN, R.I. — After Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, federal officials flew Brian Murph and more than 100 other victims to Rhode Island. They were greeted by the governor and cheered by residents.

Then the handcuffs were placed on Murph.

State police did criminal background checks (search) on every refugee and found that more than half had a criminal arrest records — a third for felonies. Murph was the only one with an outstanding arrest warrant, for larceny and other crimes.

Around the nation, state and local authorities are checking refugees' pasts as they are welcomed into homes, schools, houses of worship and housing projects. In some states, half the refugees have rap sheets.

So, I figured half of the male survivors of New Orleans Nightmare of the days after Katrina would end up with criminal records during their lifetimes, but it appears that was an underestimate: something approaching half of the evacuees, male and female, already have criminal records.

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer