December 2, 2007

"Go South, Young Han"

According to the BBC, up to three quarters of a million Chinese people are now living in Africa, either as temporary contract laborers or settling down and buying farms and shops:

They are part of China's bid to secure raw materials and markets for its manufactured goods, but they are also carving out their own opportunities.

The head of China's Export-Import Bank, Li Ruogu, recently suggested just how important Africa could be for ordinary Chinese people.

In a speech in Chongqing, an administrative region with a large rural population, he urged Chinese farmers to move to Africa.

"Chongqing has a relatively strong agricultural base. Africa has many countries with plenty of land, but food output that is not up to expectations," he said, according to a local media report.

"There's no harm in allowing [Chinese] farmers to leave the country to become farm owners [in Africa]," he added.

Mr Li said the bank would fully support this migration with investment, project development and help with the sale of products.

But Chinese farmers have already started moving to Africa, according to Liu Jianjun of the China-Africa Business Council, which helps Chinese firms find business opportunities in Africa.

Mr Liu has personally sent several thousand Chinese people to Africa over the last few years from his home city of Baoding in Hebei Province….

Mr Alden says with so many poor farmers in China unable to make a living off the land, Africa presents a host of inviting opportunities.

"There's not the sense that the streets are paved with gold but, for people who cannot find work, Africa is a realistic opportunity."

I believe that African explorer Francis Galton argued in 1873 that if let in, Southern Chinese used to warm climates could take over Africa.

The post's title is of course a reference to the famous phrase attributed to 19th Century newspapeer editor Horace Greeley: "Go West, young man."

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

37 comments:

  1. This is more an attempt to buy social peace by exporting surplus (young men) to places where they won't be causing trouble at home. China's Xinhua officially reported 18 million young men as "Bare Branches" i.e. men who won't find wives because of selective sex abortion. Very likely given the historic pattern of under-reporting the number is much higher. I've seen estimations of around 100 million. It would not shock me to find that number reasonably accurate.

    Of course, once Chinese men get there, like the Southern Filibusters in Tejas under siege by the jumped up dictator Santa Anna, pressure back home to help out one's countrymen will be irresistible.

    Africa is about to find out that European colonists were hardly the worst to happen to them. If say, 10,000 Chinese men are massacred in Zimbabwe with the connivance of Mugabe (to use a hypothetical), expect a massive Chinese Expeditionary Force to "teach them a lesson" in scorched earth, nation ceases to exist terms.

    [You'll notice China's local military threat has ended the practice of anti-Chinese riots in Indonesia and Malaysia. No one wants to give China an excuse to come in and seize their resources among which would number their women.]

    The way in which Britain and France bought social peace in the 1700 and 1800's is through exporting ambitious young men to colonies. Germany lacking that colonial outlet had a lot more problems.

    It isn't JUST resources like zinc and oil that interest China in Africa. It's the ability to prevent another Taipeng Rebellion with a LOT of unmarried and never will marry young men who see their only hope of sex/family as coup-type activity.

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  2. Blacks in Africa will think back to the days of British colonialism, Portuguese mulatto caste systems and even Apartheid after a few decades of the Chinese yoke. No concern about Humanism, Christian charity and righteousness to be expected from the ruthless and efficient Chinese.

    But it's not as if the Chinese are imposing themselves. Basically the corrupt regimes in southern Africa are inviting them against cash. Mugabe would not be able to last another day without the Chinese Dollars. But of course the Chinese are going to cash in one day in the not so distant future.

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  3. Its funny how people keep predicting what China *will* do but never points to what they've *have* done, like this evil neocon asshole here.

    Where do you get your estimation of 100 million from? What exactly do you think they're going to doing thats worst than the European have done in Africa?

    The Chinese doesn't need to make military threats against Malay & Indonesian---they'll buy their resources in the marketplace, as the have done & will continue to do.

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  4. I'll add that Africa seems determined to prove Watson correct. Being weak, divided, resource rich, and so poor as to be unable to produce a modern military capable of deterring an expeditionary force is a recipe for disaster.

    China does not care and is exempt anyway from PC. If their compatriots are massacred the calls for an expeditionary force to stop it will be irresistible, domestically speaking. China's legitimacy rests on the ability of the government to get things done. The last thing China's Politburo can afford is all those Chinese men coming home, with nothing to do. China DOES have Aircraft carriers, sea lift, and such. It's unlikely the US Navy would intervene to stop a Chinese expedition to say, Zimbabwe.

    Look at Mugabe, one of Africa's more stupid leaders in a continent filled with idiot leaders. He can only pay his Army, which consists of thugs with AK-47's and trucks, by seizing more and more property which will eventually run out -- even a low grade thug can see that it will mean eventually his army turning on him when he can't pay, or invading his neighbors which will provoke better armed and resourced allies of said neighbors.

    I can see him being stupid enough to invite the Chinese in, or failing to un-invite them. Engaging in the usual hostage thuggery, and getting the usual Chinese response. Lost in the Pakistan melt-down is that the Chinese government LEANED on Musharraf to free the Chinese prostitutes seized by the Red Temple last Summer. Because Chinese public opinion demanded it. Not that China is a democracy but rather China cannot afford to be seen by it's own people as too weak to defend her own.

    Watson is likely to be proven right by concrete example. Even more likely, China's leaders citing his own words and research he also cited as reason enough Africans (or some of them anyway) cannot be left to govern themselves.

    China wants resources from Africa. It also wants to export it's unmarriageable young man problem there too. THAT guarantees Chinese military intervention, unless you think a thug like Mugabe can peacefully coexist with land-hungry Chinese peasants looking to buy a wife.

    Gary Brecher will certainly be pleased. He's about to be proven (as usual) 100% wrong on the nature of conventional warfare but it will at least entertain the heck out of him.

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  5. Lothrop Stoddard alluded to this in "The Rising Tide of Color" in the 1920s as well. The book argued that it was impossible for the White Man to continue to rule East and South Asia (i.e., his "Yellow Man" and "Brown Man") as they were fully capable of running their own affairs and knew it well. However, the West had to hold on to Africa and the sub-Rio Grande Americas (the "Black Man" and "Red Man") because they were not so capable, and were sitting on enormous resources that the Asians would love to get their hands upon. If that sounds paranoid today, remember the waves of Japanese and Chinese immigrants to all parts of the Western Hemisphere in the early 20th century.

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  6. "Germany lacking that colonial outlet had a lot more problems."

    Displays normal historical ignorance. Germany had overseas colonies; it lost them as a result of losing WW I.

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  7. Even if Chinese people get local wives, as they have done when expanding along the continent, their mixed offspring will still be half black and not as capable as their fathers, right?
    So either they send whole families to dominate the continent, OR they send unmarriable men and it just busts out with time.

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  8. Francis Galton did indeed predict this.

    http://galton.org/letters/africa-for-chinese/AfricaForTheChinese.htm

    Wait until other Asian nations realize this is a good idea and Africans invite them in so they have an alternative to the Chinese.

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  9. The people talking about Chinese expeditions to Africa must be living in a different world than I am in-in the one I am in, Chinese sealift capabilities (and the logistical capability to sustain an expeditionary force far from home) is pretty small. Things will be different with almost any African country (with the exception of South Africa) than they are likely to be with Taiwan, since the naval capability of most African nations is very small, so the Chinese wouldn't have to worry about opposition in landing, so I imagine they could start an expedition.

    Finishing it..well, that's a different matter.

    There's also the fact that there is already evidence to suggest that the Chinese government regards Chinese who take jobs abroad to be on their own: they certainly haven't reacted much when suicide bombers in Israel killed and injured Chinese workers..basically, they issued a press release deploring it, and that was that.

    What I think is more likely is that you'll see Chinese settler communities coming in, initially with the approval of the government, and over a period of decades, they'll develop a mentality similar to that white settlers had. I don't think the home government will do much for them even if it does develop the capability. (I've been reading predictions of a massive Chinese fleet over the last 20 years, which haven't come true, and which remind me a lot of the talk, which turned out to be mostly BS, about the might of the Soviet surface fleet-not that that kind of talk has vanished. The massive 9 ship deployment of the Northern Fleet a few years back caused some people to panic, especially since it had Russia's only aircraft carrier in it..even though that carrier doesn't carry many planes and one fell overboard during the cruise.)

    Still, a Sino-Rhodesia that doesn't give a damn about world opinion, and which will be able to trade with its ethnic brethren (even if the main concentration of that brethren won't stick up for them militarily), is probably going to mean that large portions of Africa are going to become Sinicized permanently.


    Naval Nonny Mouse

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  10. I remember reading somewhere, that when the chinese went to work in some sub saharan hellhole a few decades ago...Uganda maybe? They boasted that even though they were there for years - they left behind not a single mixed race child.

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  11. Does Mr Neocon above think the Chinese men in Africa will take local Africa women as wives? Chinese male / Black female couplings don't seem very popular in my cosmopolitan city.

    Actually this has occurred frequently in the Caribean. There are lots of Black people with the last name Chin out there.

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  12. >>Displays normal historical ignorance. Germany had overseas colonies; it lost them as a result of losing WW I.

    Correction: Germany was one of the last European countries to become a unified nation-state, and as a result, was late to the game of acquiring colonies. Germany was centuries behind England, France, and Spain and wound up with the leftovers of Africa -- e.g., Namibia.

    Italy was also slow to unify and got the consolation prize of Eritrea at the Berlin Conference (1884), which settled European claims to Africa.

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  13. I doubt that the Chinese settlers in Africa are arriving unorganized, "willy-nilly." They are probably somehow organized and partly employed by the Chinese government, most probably have military training, and it would not surprise if they have signnicant cahes of small arms, not for mercenary offensive operations, but for small-scale, organic self defense. Read about the Chinese in Sudan.

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  14. There was an article about this topic in the New York Times in August:

    Entrepreneurs From China Flourish in Africa

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/18/world/africa/18malawi.html

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  15. They should learn from the Indian experience.

    Indians were invited to migrate to Africa under the British. When the British left, the Indian ran most of the businesses and industries. Most African countries were resentful of this and kicked the Indians out, at which point their economies collapsed. Most of them never really recovered.

    It's going to be exactly the same for the Chinese. The blacks don't like people coming into their lands and outperforming them, even if overall their society benefits.

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  16. anon:
    "large portions of Africa are going to become Sinicized permanently. "

    I doubt that very much, given the demographics already mentioned - the lack of Chinese women and the lack of mixed race breeding will greatly limit the Chinese footprint on Africa. At most, some African countries may end up with Chinese middle-man-minorities along current white & South Asian lines. Such minorities are of course vulnerable to genocide/ethnic cleansing by disgruntled lower ability majorities.

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  17. The gender skew in China is being eased by drawing from poorer SE Asian countries through, e.g., bride agencies.

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  18. The Chinese do not have and will not have for some time to come, an expeditionary force prejection capability in Africa. The idea of China militarily taking over Africa is laughable. Maybe in 2050, but not anytime soon.

    However, these new Chinese settlers seem to be forgetting or are unaware of the travails that the Indians and the previous waves of Chinese settlers had in Africa.

    Uganda had many Asians (mostly Indian) until Idi Amin threw them out in the mid 70's. This happened in other parts of Africa during the same time period as well. It is worth noting the China tried to assert influence in Africa during the communist period (the same time that Castro had his troops in Africa, for the same purposes). in order to "spread" the communist revolution.

    Also, South Africa has a large Indian and Malay community (these people are often referred to as "colored"), mainly around Durban.

    I think it much more likely that this new wave of Chinese settlers will eventually wear out their welcome and will become victims of anti-Chinese pogroms and purges. This has happened before and will happen again.

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  19. Hey evil neocon, way to project those "Chung Kuo" novels! Were you finished posting about Victorian Supermen on Chicago Boyz? Mutual resentment of White people is the one thing all colored people have in common (oh, and black hair and brown eyes). The Africans will abide their new East Asian colonizers just as they have South Asian traders...and be more determined than ever to colonize the continent to the North.

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  20. Someone should get these Chinese migrants copies of Amy Chua's "World on Fire" or Thomas Sowell's "Black Rednecks and White Liberals" which contains Are Jews Generic?

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  21. Even if Chinese people get local wives, as they have done when expanding along the continent, their mixed offspring will still be half black and not as capable as their fathers, right?
    So either they send whole families to dominate the continent, OR they send unmarriable men and it just busts out with time.


    Not necessarily. Think of the first generation as a beachhead in a long-term strategy of one-way gene flow; the early generations mate with local women, subsequent generations (of surplus Chinese males) mate with their mulatto offspring, then their quadroon offspring, etc., etc., etc. Eventually the original SSA genes are negligible.

    Not that I think any of this is likely, mind you, just throwing stuff against the wall.

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  22. "If say, 10,000 Chinese men are massacred in Zimbabwe with the connivance of Mugabe (to use a hypothetical), expect a massive Chinese Expeditionary Force to "teach them a lesson" in scorched earth, nation ceases to exist terms."

    Given that the Khmer Rouge murdered most of Cambodia's ethnic Chinese population yet the Chinese government remained allied to them, I doubt that this is likely.

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  23. Germany got their colonies quite late, they had few opportunities there, and had relatively few Germans. One of the big complaints the Kaiser had was that the French and English had gobbled up all the good targets.

    And yes Rowhan, Chinese men in Africa probably will take African wives. Regardless of their popularity in your neighborhood, the attraction to Chinese men (a woman instead of nothing) should be obvious.

    China's Xinhua News Agency lists 18 million bare branches. Multiply by five and a bit of fudge and you got 100 million. It certainly tracks with what outside observers have reported, and what I saw with my own eyes in Beijing, Xianxing, and Shanghai in 1996.

    As for Military Threats by China, they have a habit of "teaching people a lesson" as the Vietnamese can tell you from the war they fought in the late 70's. Certainly Mohammed Mahathir, Lee Kwan Yew, have made speeches in which they openly allude to the Chinese threat. China is a huge nation, with wealth and lots of demographic power and military upgrades across the board. Anyone who doesn't think they threaten their neighbors on a regular basis is delusional.

    I find it telling that before the late 90's, with China's military rise, anti-Chinese riots were a regular feature in Indonesia and Malaysia and suddenly just stopped. Maybe the people there just got "enlightened" or maybe threats, credible threats, were made by a powerful neighbor that can what it wants.

    Anon -- did you catch what China forced Musharraf to do wrt the Chinese prostitutes abducted by the Red Mosque? They publicly leaned on him to rescue them, and have engaged in a war with the Islamist forces in Pakistan (the latter occupying the area around the Chinese border and pledging to "purge" the nation of Chinese influence). This is remarkable given the historic anti-India alliance between China and Pakistan.

    Morever having spent some time there, I can tell you in the late 1990's Chinese media had an aggrieved nationalism and desire to kick sand in various people's faces to make up for being a historical victim. The inevitable result of too many men chasing too few women.

    Sn and SKT make the mistake of viewing China TODAY as India was in the past. Global comms means a small band of Chinese middlemen getting massacred in say, Zimbabwe can send out video of their last moments which can spread around even China (with it's great Firewall) like wildfire. And lacking much else that can be expressed but nationalism force the Chinese to act.

    RWF -- the Rouge were Mao's creatures (against the Vietnamese). Mao's long dead and China can't afford to do much other than export her men. No leadership could stand by seeing Chinese men getting massacred because someone else would seize power on that issue. "Weakness" is something Chinese leadership cannot even afford in Pakistan, regardless of the risks to historic alliances.

    [The idea that 100 million SE Asian women will "fix" the bare branches is laughable. A few million maybe, that's it.]

    I don't see some "evil racial plan" but I do see China like most new powers, that have been kicked around a lot, and have too many young men wrt women, acting very aggressively. Africa is weak, resource rich, effective manpower poor, and outside the US protective zone. That's a dangerous place to be.

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  24. "It's going to be exactly the same for the Chinese. The blacks don't like people coming into their lands and outperforming them, even if overall their society benefits."

    "I think it much more likely that this new wave of Chinese settlers will eventually wear out their welcome and will become victims of anti-Chinese pogroms and purges. This has happened before and will happen again."

    Possible, but highly unlikely. This is a nation the massacred thousands of its own (and some of its most intelligent and capable citizens) at Tianamen for daring to question authority. This is also the nation that had no problem using human wave attacks in the Korean War(just to prove they meant business) and sent the PLA into Vietnam in 1979 for a variety of reasons including that the brass felt the military was getting lazy(And it was possibly true. The Vietnamese, hardened from decades of war, cut them to pieces.) They invaded and crushed Tibet and are in the process of doing the same in Xinjiang to the muslims that live there.
    This is a nation and group of people that have no problem using force to get what it wants and is very racially aware. They don't care about "world opinion" and don't have a liberal establishment that is ingrained in the gov't or press to wring its hands over some bodies and is paralyzed with bullshit western concepts like PC, multiculturalism, "understanding" especially in some dump like Africa over a resource grab that benefits the PRC. The People's Daily won't ask "Why do They Hate Us" when some enraged Africans kill some Chinese workers or merchants. They have no NYT or college leftists undermining their nation from within and "deconstructing" Chinese society with bullshit, obfuscation, lies and cowardice.
    I can only imagine the response from China if any Africans try to kick them out or persecute Chinese with pogroms or purges. The PRC isn't going to have lawyers review targets, worry about collateral damage like the US does or fret about dead civilians and bad public relations. They are going to show up with tanks, planes, helicopters, flamethrowers, etc... and get to work. If some eggs have to be broken to make an omlet, well, too bad.

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  25. Given that the Khmer Rouge murdered most of Cambodia's ethnic Chinese population yet the Chinese government remained allied to them, I doubt that this is likely.

    That was to make trouble for Vietnam. Like I said, to make an omlet, you have to break some eggs. And not to worry, there were plenty of Chinese to replace them. The PRC has always ben rather free with its citizen's lives. And while I'm on the subject of Vietnam, I expect that we will be their allies in the coming decades. We were only a temporary enemy, the Chinese have been their enemy for over 2000 years.

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  26. evil neocon:
    "Sn and SKT make the mistake of viewing China TODAY as India was in the past."

    I do actually think the world is changing; and the Chinese nationals who've spoken frankly with me are looking forward to the 'death of the West' and the coming century of Chinese global dominance (except an ethnic Uighur who's nostalgic for the British empire and its relatively civilised imperialism). Much of Africa may well fall under effective Chinese control, but I don't think demographic conquest is at all likely. I think the population of Africa will remain African, and mostly ethnic-Bantu, and that, if anything, the proportion of most minority populations will decrease.

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  27. I disagree with Naval Nonny Mouse.

    China does not complain when American blacks attack Chinese people living in America. China does not complain when Palestinians blow up Chinese Jews and Arabs in Israel. Mexico does not whine when blacks kill illegals in the USA either.

    But let Americans attack Chinese, let the Jewish government of Israel attack the Chinese, let the US government attack Mexicans, and you will see a completely different response.

    For why should the Chinese, Mexicans or anyone else get upset about random street violence?

    Even the USA doesn't get upset.

    All it does is post traveler's advisories to Lagos, Nigeria, it doesn't threaten to invade.

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  28. "Actually this has occurred frequently in the Caribean. There are lots of Black people with the last name Chin out there."

    Man! Black AND Asian! That has to drive those affirmative action folks nuts in California.

    I can just see their little heads spinning around like Linda Blair and green stuff coming out.

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  29. I guess the guy raving about the chinese being so heavily against western-style liberalism must find the revolting borderline-fascism, extreme censorship, and rampant executions over the most petty crimes imaginable to be oh so appealing over being socially ostracized for saying blacks are dumb.

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  30. I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with evil neocon. It is a mistake to ignore the lessons of history - it's also a mistake to assume that the character of nations is immutable.

    From about 800 - 1750 A.D. or so, germans had no special reputation for martial prowess. Beginning with the rise of the prussion military state that changed dramatically, culminating in the two world wars. That prussian military mojo even rubbed off on the hapless bavarians.

    At the beginning of the 19th century, the most successful, competent, and feared army in Europe was that of......France.

    Japan had kept to itself for, well, forever - until the 1890's. And within 50 years they had conquered Korea, Southeast Asia, the better part of China and the Pacific, defeated Russia in a war, and took a big swipe at us.

    Nations can and do change. I don't know much about China, but I get the impression that they are beginning to feel their oats, and wouldn't mind a rumble or two. China seems to act in many ways like pre WWI Germany.

    I think they would stand a good chance of conquering all of Africa, as completely as Spain and Portugal took over central and south America, and perhaps quite a bit more efficiently.

    There are plently of chinese men available for the task. And there could be women too. The female imbalance is, as I understand it, the result of three things: the chinese' desires to have - at all costs - a son, the easy availability of abortion, and the one child policy (a government enforced policy). It was effected in just about one generation. The policy could be changed, and the results manifest themselves in one generation too. The one-child policy was the Chinese governments response to too many people on too little land. But if the vast jungles and savannahs of Africa beckoned, there could be a population boom to go with the land boom.

    I can imagine Africa becoming Chinese, and in relatively little time.

    The question is: what do we do about it?

    I say, let 'em have it. It will divert their attention and sap their strength. No good has ever come to europeans from european involvement in the dark continent. Africa is like the Balkans on crack.

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  31. am i the first to ask if this is a result of the gobi desert expanding? chinese farmland is turning into desert at a faster than comfortable pace.

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  32. Jody, Africa is not exactly a green and pleasant land. It has water problems, too.

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  33. To displace a whole people, you need to have favorable birthrates and deathrates. Alex de Toqueville said that the english colonies in the new world doubled in population every 20-25 years, mainly due to high birthrates by the time of the revolution. The native americans had birthrates that couldn't even match deathrates. That is how a continent passes from one people to another.

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  34. Rowhan said...
    Does Mr Neocon above think the Chinese men in Africa will take local Africa women as wives? Chinese male / Black female couplings don't seem very popular in my cosmopolitan city.



    I would hope so! I'm all for BW/AM relationships in this century.

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  35. martin:
    "I don't know much about China, but I get the impression that they are beginning to feel their oats, and wouldn't mind a rumble or two"

    My impression from the Chinese is that they are actually determined to be very careful not to upset their 'peaceful rise' until their position is secure, which I expect means until they have both economic parity with the USA and an economy that is not reliant on exports to potential rivals. That being the case, the Chinese wish to avoid military conflict with the USA, which is now commonly perceived around the world as a likely aggressor. The USA also claims pretty much the entire planet, including Africa, as its 'sphere of influence', so China will be cautious about military operations there.

    When they cease to be cautious... Well, if they are looking for land and resources for colonisation, Australia is a lot closer, more sparsely populated and more tempting than Africa. But China, like all other states, will not do anything to risk nuclear war, so will not attack Australia as long as Australia is protected by American nukes.

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  36. My African friend from Nigeria was justifying polygamy by saying that in Africa women outnumber men by a respectable margin. If that is true, the excess Chinese men could marry the excess African women. I do not think Chinese men fancy black women a lot (Most of my Chinese friends would prefer Eastern European women) but since they will be richer they can probably marry the most attractive ones. Better marry an attractive African woman than remain single. Besides remember those men would be free from the one child policy. Being richer and more successful they can have many African wives and several mixed offspring.

    The offspring of these marriages will be like Mr. Jean Ping of Gabon who had an African mother and Chinese father. He turned out more competent than his pure black colleagues. Mr. Ping is remarkably similar to ex Prime Minister Jerry Rawlings of Ghana who had a Scottish father and Ghanaian mother. He is remembered as the best man to have ever ruled Ghana.

    Large scale intermarriage between Chinese men and African women could increase Africa's average IQ and create a large mixed tribe with IQ's in the same range as the Arab world or South East Asia. It is a win win for both Africa and China. China gets rid of its excess men and Africa gets good genes. It is especially good for us Indians as China will not unleash its excess male population at us. Let those men make love (in Africa) not war (in Asia).

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  37. Actually, the one child policy is only enforced in urban area. In the chinese countryside, peasants and ethnics minorities are allowed 2 children if the first born is a girl.
    But according to some of my chinese friends, some families even have 3 or 4 children, and those extra children do not have an official existence since they are not declared and local officials tend to turn a blind eye thanks to bribery.
    Thus the gender imbalance actually affects urban area more than rural areas.


    Plus you have to remember that in the XIXth century, tough immigration restrictions put in place in the US and some British territories to curb mass immigration from asian countries meant that they had no choice but marry what was available, i.e. black women since interracial marriages (between whites and coloured) were in some places illegal .

    Therefore I don't think chinese men would massively intermarry with black women if they were to settle in Africa, they have other options available such as south east asian mail order brides from populous countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand etc... Which is already being done in mainland China.

    Anecdotal evidence from my east asian acquantainces at my university: for both boys and girls, black people are the least preferable dating/marriage partners.

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