Imagine that the Democrats self-destruct over Obama's past, letting John McCain slip into the White House, where he continues Bush's invade-invite-in hock policies? What should be the Over-Under line for how many electoral votes (out of the 538 available) the 76-year-old Republican would get running for re-election in 2012? Eight? Twelve?
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My guess is that by then, the US would be under a military junta. Admiral Fallon may have been fired or resigned due to opposition to the Neocon plan for war with Iran, but if this continues into the next decade the entire country would implode.
Think New Orleans post-Katrina land fall. It took the military to re-introduce what level of order exists there and if McCain continues the Neocon agenda it will take military rule to maintain some kind of order nationwide.
He's already held out the hint that he plans to be a one-termer, making his choice of running mate that much more important. (Current whispers have Carly Fiorina with the inside track)...if the timing of the boom/recession cycle breaks in the GOP's favor in 2012, any McCain VP will have the bounce of incumbency for the top slot that Gore should have had in 2000, and any incumbent President would then be odds-on favorite for re-election in 2016.
That's one reason the professional Dems are so hungry and desperate this year. They know if they double-clutch this time, they run the risk of having the entire set of Executive Branch sinecures out of their reach for the entire period from 2001 to 2021. Kind of like the GOP was stuck on the outside looking in from 1933 to 1953--a long time.
McCain's obviously a one-term guy. And he's not going to be able to get Open Borders done. Dems won't help him, and Reps understand the base hates it.
He'll have limited capital and he'll spend it on what he feels is most important -- victory in Iraq and constraining and deterring Iran.
He's not Bush. He's likely to get focused on one thing and move to achieve it. That's Iraq and Iran.
My over/under would be 0... because I honestly think that if McCain is elected, the GOP will ultimately fracture into at least two separate parties, one of them being hard-right. And I'd dare say that the hard-right party would become the real opposition to the Democrats.
In the highly unlikely event that McCain ends up in the White House, I seriously doubt even the GOP is stupid enough to let him run for reelection.
If things go as well for the US in the next four years as they have gone in the previous four, I think we can reasonably assume we will be looking at a new POTUS in '12 no matter who gets the gig this November.
Prediction: 150 to 180 electoral votes.
Better prediction: if Hillary gets the Democratic nomination, then she'll win and McCain won't be up for re-election in 2012.
Only 8 or 12 electoral votes? Dream on. The whole point is that 2008 was *supposed* to be the Big Democrat Blow Out, remember? Everyone was going to vote against the eeeeeeeevil Bush's policies of invite/invade, and Liberalism was going to be resurgent.
Funny how it doesn't seem to be going quite the way the script was written in those heady days of late 2006 when Pelosi & Co. were going to, just you wait, Do Something.
Why do you think 2012 will be the year the Great Pumpkin finally does arrive?
"Anonymous said...
Only 8 or 12 electoral votes? Dream on. The whole point is that 2008 was *supposed* to be the Big Democrat Blow Out, remember?"
That could still happen. People don't pay near as much attention to Congress as they do to the white house. They could pick up a big majority, and the white-house.
If it's McCain vs. Obama, I see McCain winning, and serving out one entirely undistinguished term (at least, I hope it's undistinguished). If it's McCain vs. Clinton, I see Clinton winning.
If McCain does win, there's no chance that the Republicans hold on to the white house in 2012. As they are not a conservative party, I don't really care anyway.
We're screwed no matter who wins. We may get screwed in one of three different ways, but that's the only choice that we have in the matter any longer. Neo, Madame Dufarge, or Maverick. Choose your poison.
Funny how it doesn't seem to be going quite the way the script was written in those heady days of late 2006 when Pelosi & Co. were going to, just you wait, Do Something.
Thing is, Congress is going to be a masacare.
The Democrats do seem to be doing their best to pick a candiate that will be hard for the American people to get comfortable with.
Nonetheless, the Dems are still favored to win no matter who their candidate is.
anonymous 3/16/2008
Great read! I hope you're right about Carly Fiorina. That is a faboulous chick. Brains and looks, and aging well. As for their conservative credentials, oh well, I guess we can pipedream about getting a Ron Paul in, unfortunately.
My big worry is that McCain will start a nuclear war. My bigger fear is that it will be against Russia. A nuclear war with Pakistan would be something most of us would survive (India might well lose some cities); with China many of us would survive (although Steve and West Coast USA would be in trouble). Russia, not so much.
Thing is, Congress is going to be a masacare. (sic)
The Senate perhaps, mostly due to a) the fact that more Republicans are up for reelection than Dems, and b) the RNC and RNSC have completely failed to recruit good candidates.
The House is looking much better. Fears of another ~30 seat loss that were rampant in early 2007 have receded. Here, the Republicans have figured that the best defense is a good offense: Blue Dogs (like Heath Schuler of NC) that make up the Dem margin of majority control are terrified by an Obama ticket, and only marginally less scared by Hillary. These backbenchers won by thin margins in 2006, and could be wiped out by the negative coattails of a leftish national ticket.
"headache said...
anonymous 3/16/2008
Great read! I hope you're right about Carly Fiorina. That is a faboulous chick. Brains and looks, and aging well."
I pay virtually no attention to the business press, but wasn't Ms. Fiorina run off from HP for doing a lousy job?
He's already held out the hint that he plans to be a one-termer ...
Huh? Where and when did Uncle John Dole MacAmnesty say that?
He's foolish to do so, 'cuz it makes people wonder even more about his health. If he's not confident he's good for eight more years, maybe he won't last four, either.
... Carly Fiorina ...
I ass-u-me that that's intended to a joke.
On the one hand, never underestimate the power of Dems to self-destruct.
On the other hand, maybe the Dems will come to their senses and nominate a nice Southern white male. If they do . . . well, we are talking 8 electoral votes or so, no matter whether its McCain or his VP.
Re comments of anonymous- Somehow I doubt that the boom/recession cycle will break in favor of any incumbent President for some years. Whoever wins this election will be about as popular as OJ Simpson in four years, given what Bush has stuck him or her with.
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