Here's the top story at the New York Times:
Disillusioned Hispanics May Skip Midterms, Poll Suggests
By MARC LACEY
PHOENIX — Arizona’s controversial immigration law has prompted denunciations, demonstrations, boycotts and a federal lawsuit. But it may not bring the protest vote many Democrats had hoped would stem a Republican onslaught in races across the country.
That’s because although many voters are disillusioned with the political process, Latino voters are particularly dejected, and many may sit these elections out, according to voters, Latino organizations, and political consultants and candidates. A poll released Tuesday found that though Latinos strongly back Democrats over Republicans, 65 percent to 22 percent, in the Congressional elections just four weeks away, only 51 percent of Latino registered voters say they will absolutely go to the polls, compared to 70 percent of all registered voters.
The other side in the immigration debate is suffering no such lack of enthusiasm. One measure of its high spirits is the dance card of Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. He conducts raids in Latino neighborhoods that have led critics to label him a racist and the Justice Department to start a racial profiling investigation. But he is a pariah who is also in demand.
As conservatives across the country seek to burnish their tough-on-immigration credentials, Mr. Arpaio’s endorsement is much sought after.
The Arizona law seems to be rewriting not just the rules on immigration, but the rules on how it is talked about on the campaign trail, too.
Even in New Mexico, a state with a large Hispanic population and traditional tolerance for illegal immigration, the issue is seen as a vote-getter for Republicans.
Illegal immigration hasn't traditionally been a big political issue in New Mexico because there aren't all that many illegal immigrants in New Mexico because there have been Hispanics in New Mexico for 400 years, so, New Mexico (state motto: Thank God for Mississippi) is a poor state, so illegal immigrants avoid it.
... The results of the poll released Tuesday, by the Pew Hispanic Center, suggest that the raging debate over Arizona’s law and the lack of Congressional action on immigration reform may have turned off many Latinos.
Just 32 percent of all Latino registered voters say they have given this year’s election “quite a lot” of thought, compared with 50 percent of all registered voters in the country, the poll found. The poll is based on a survey of 1,375 Latinos conducted from Aug. 17 to Sept. 19.
(The Pew poll also found that for Latinos, education, jobs and health care trump immigration as major issues, which could be bad news for Democrats hoping to capitalize from anger over the Arizona law.)
That's what practically every poll of Hispanic voters has more or less found in the decade I've been following this issue. Hispanic voters have sensibly ambivalent feelings about illegal immigration. The press routinely ignores this because they talk to professional Hispanic activists who are all in favor of increasing the population of Hispanics in the U.S. to boost their personal careers by giving them more putative followers to claim to be the leaders of.
If Hispanics heavily turn out in the midterm election, then Democratic congressional majorities might be preserved, but just barely. Forecast: Polarization over amnesty will increase; no action on legislation for the next two years. However, if Hispanic voters blow off midterms, and Dems lose their majorities, well, the lame duck Congress might very well pass amnesty to give angry white voters the finger.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of how Hispanics feel toward illegal immigration, it might be better for illegal aliens if their co-ethnics stayed away from the polls on Nov 2.
One measure of its high spirits is the dance card of Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix.
ReplyDeleteNot a sentence. No editors at the Slimes?
the raging debate over Arizona’s law and the lack of Congressional action on immigration reform may have turned off many Latinos
ReplyDeleteBut ... but I've been assured that "the raging debate over Arizona’s law" will cause the Latino hordes to run to the polls to elect Democrats! Looks like National Review lied again.
This is the appeal of your 'citizenist' project.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't give Hispanic citizens any pocketbook reason to be worried about what you will do to you and your kids, their theoretical allegiance to their foreign co-ethnics probably won't be enough to get them to to oppose you.
If an ethnic party tries to govern in the interests of the country as a whole, it can keep governing and governing and governing.
Alas, the GOP is full of stupids.
It may be that ORDINARY Hispanics really don't care all that much about the illegals. Now Hispanic "leaders", that's another story.
ReplyDeleteNot a sentence. No editors at the Slimes?
ReplyDeleteSubject=One measure of its high spirits
Predicate=is the dance card of Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix.
Ironically, the very poverty of New Mexico and its unattractive nature to hordes of Mexican illegal immigrants, probably makes places like Santa Fe more attractive to those with money. Hey if you can't live on the coast, living in Santa Fe or Taos looks good.
ReplyDelete"Ironically, the very poverty of New Mexico and its unattractive nature to hordes of Mexican illegal immigrants, probably makes places like Santa Fe more attractive to those with money."
ReplyDeleteUh, no, there are plenty of illegals in Santa Fe as it has the highest mandated minimum wage in the country.
Which has more illegals? New Mexico or Arizona?
ReplyDeleteIt seems obvious that whites will turn out in 2010 and blacks and Hispanics will not. The question is, what will happen in 2012.
Steve Sailer said..."Hispanic Electoral Tsunami Delayed Once Again by Apathy".
ReplyDeleteYet another entry in the "Oh GAWD I Wish I'd Said That" category.
As to your post itself, it's no surprise to me that Hispanics seem more motivated and energized by personalities than they do by policies.
This is good example of the questionableness of the "Hispanic" label. The term "Hispanic" has been used as a blanket term for a variety of people from many cultural and racial backgrounds, who are, to varying degrees, of European, African, or, Native American backgrounds, or a mixture of two or more of these.
ReplyDeleteContrast, for example, the primarily (generally mixed-race Mestizo)Mexican-dominated "Hispnic" situation in Arizona, with the (predominantly European) Cuban-dominated "Hispnaic" population of Miami. The latter is more upper to middle class than the former, is more right of center and Republican politically.
Throw in the (primarily mixed race mulatto, with some white) Puerto Rican population, and all the rest of Latin America's various groups, and it shows just how specious and useless such a blanket term as "Hispanic" actually is, especcially for HBD purposes.
Hispanics are so boring (to the rest of us) that even Steve's posts on them get relatively few comments.
ReplyDeleteSomeone please explain this Colo. gov race poll to me:
ReplyDelete[Former U.S. Rep. Tom] Tancredo, who is best-known for his staunch position against illegal immigration, also leads [Democrat] Hickenlooper among Hispanic voters, 42 percent to 40 percent.