May 20, 2007

The politics of the Kennedy-Bush immigration plan

In National Review, "Anonymous" (who, in answer to some readers' questions, isn't me) writes Rove’s Gift to the Democrats? The future on a silver platter. And David Frum explains why this will be a debacle for the GOP.

The argument in favor of going along with Bush's obsessions on immigration always used to be, "Well, sure, amnesty makes no political sense to you or me, but Karl Rove is a genius, so we just have to trust him." Well, as was shown in November 2006, Rove is not a genius. And even if he were, working for someone as willful, stubborn, and out-of-touch as George W. Bush would make Archimedes, Newton, and Einstein look like the Three Stooges.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

And even if he were, working for someone as willful, stubborn, and out-of-touch as George W. Bush...

Used to describe Bush, and his truly horrible and disastrous presidency, those adjectives are way too kind. Did you happen to see his entrance with the queen at the state dinner? One word: buffoon. And the scary thing is, even after all of that was more than apparent in 2004, he still got reelected.

ricpic said...

I read somewhere that Bush has a nephew who's Hispanic or half-Hispanic and who's supposed to be the best bet for carrying the Bush family's dynastic/presidential hopes forward. Could this be what's behind W's hispanomania? Stranger engines driving policy have existed.

Mark said...

These folks like to present all sorts of polls. Their favorite is the (false) exit poll data that showed Bush getting 44% of the Hispanic vote - from the same exit polls that showed John Kerry winning the election.

You don't need all those polls. What you need is real world data that's easily verifiable. First you have the data that shows Hispanics (2nd generation especially) are poorer, less educated, more likely to be criminals and more likely to have kids out-of-wedlock. That's obvious just from visual inspection, but Heather Mac Donald also ripped that myth to shreds. In other words, Hispanics are Blacks Lite. Any shock that they'll vote like Blacks Lite, too? They know which side their bread is buttered on.

The even simpler but more forceful data is this: there are 23 Hispanics in congress (last I checked), and 20 of them are Democrats. And the 3 Republicans? ALL are Cuban. This is a disparity that existed long before the immigration debates of the last few years. It existed before Pete Wilson allegedly destroyed the GOP in California with his Prop campaign.

Some people may think that congressional representation is a poor proxy for political inclinations. You'd be wrong. Every last one of the 40 or so blacks in congress is a Democrat - anyone wanna dispute what it says about how blacks vote? The same even holds for Jews and Mormons, who are much smaller percentages of the population than Hispanics. It's not a good idea to use it as a proxy for the lone Bahai or Sikh in congress, but it's an excellent proxy for any group as large as Hispanics.

Hispanics may very well turn out to be Republicans - but if so, it won't be the conservative GOP of Barry Goldwater or the Gipper.

My personal feeligs about Karl Rove are that he knows good and damn well what he's doing, and that he knows Hispanics ain't gunna be conservatives. There are lots of Republicans who run as Republicans only because they live in conservative states or districts. They wouldn't mind moving the political center a few hundred miles to the left.

Gary said...

To borrow a phrase from the Sailer lexicon, the GOP is treating its most dependable voters like lepers in the name of Hispanic outreach. The GOP needs middle class, English speaking caucasian voters (especially men) to win elections, but this is exactly the group that George Bush has continually given the finger to on immigration.

On other blogs, the Kool-Aid drinkers have accused me of being a bad Republican because I have pointed out (long before Frum did) that the Bush administration's reaction to Republicans who disagree with them is to cheap-shot them. Bush is a small, mean, petty prick. The last time we had one of those in the White House was when Jimmy Carter was president, and the comparison is lot closer than will make a lot of GOPers comfortable.

Anonymous said...

The bill, S. 1348, does make an attempt to mitigate the electoral consequences. It says that the census can not count illegal aliens. This might be a stumbling block for the very Democratic House members most in favor of amnesty: those with large illegal populations in their district don't want to face redistricting due to 'reduced' population in their districts. Of course, what will happen is the Democrats will gain the presidency in 2008 and ignore this law. They will count illegals in the census and register them to vote.

Anonymous said...

The bill, S. 1348, says that the census can not count illegal aliens. It makes an attempt to minimize the electoral impact of the bill. Democratic House members who otherwise would vote for the bill might not because it will lead to redistricting. Those districts with large populations of illegal aliens might be forced into a race with another sitting congressman in 2012. Of course, the cynic in me suggests that should the Dems win the presidency in 2008, that they will count illegal alien populations regardless of what the law says.

Mark said...

I read somewhere that Bush has a nephew who's Hispanic or half-Hispanic and who's supposed to be the best bet for carrying the Bush family's dynastic/presidential hopes forward. - ricpic

Yep. George P. Bush is heir to the infamous Jeb Bush crime family in Florida. Jeb's wife is Mexican. Every member of the family but the former governor himself has had run-ins with the law - his wife, his daughter Noelle (drug addict), and George P (stalking or something). Now George P has decided on a (temporary) career in the Navy, in order to enhance his resume.

But not to worry - W has effectively destroyed the Bush political dynasty in this country.

Mark said...

The bill, S. 1348, does make an attempt to mitigate the electoral consequences. It says that the census can not count illegal aliens.

1) I haven't heard that. It's news to me.

2) It will almost certainly get tossed out in the House, or in conference. But if it doesn't...

3) I can easily see the Supremes overturning it. Besides, you don't have to prove you're a citizen to fill out a census form.

The real safeguard is that (tentatively) it doesn't grant quick citizenship to illegals. That means Americans (may) be able to render a verdict unobstructed by lots of new voters. And if we do throw out lots of congressworms, we'll be able to take those "Z visas" back.

(That, of course, assumes Americans are paying attention, and are ticked.)

Mark said...

Red State reveals all the lies:

http://www.redstate.com/stories/featured_stories/response_to_white_house_myth_fact_on_immigration_bill

Mark said...

"The Kennedy-Bush" plan.

Isn't it great that our immigration policy is being hashed out by a coupla candy-assed New England formerly(?) alcoholic trust-fund babies who barely graduated from college and who, in the immortal words of Anne Richards, were both born on third base and thought they hit triples?

If Americans ain't angry, then they deserve to have their country stolen out from underneath them.

tommy said...

By the way, immigration opponents might want to check out Hugh Hewitt's reading of a purported draft of the bill over at Townhall.com

Reading The Fine Print, Part 1: Does The First Exception Swallow The Triggers Whole?

Reading the Fine Print: Part 2: Title I -- Who's Blowing All That Smoke?

Reading The Fine Print, Part 3: Title II: Send Lawyers, Clerks, Judges, And Background Checks

Reading The Fine Print, Part 4: A Huge New Tax On Business

Reading The Fine Print, Part 5: No Illiterate Nonimmigrants

Reading The Fine Print, Part 6: And The Grand Total Is?

Reading The Fine Print, Part 7: "There's Been A Slight Change In Your Job Description"

Reading The Fine Print, Part 8: Humbug And Common Sense

There is probably more analysis on the way from Hewitt.

Anonymous said...

Bush 1 and Bush 2 were fighter pilots. Not stupid by any means but neither (like McCain btw) ever led a group of men, or managed a large group of people.

This is why Bush is such a bad politician, a bad leader, and a disaster for the GOP. He is not stupid. Neither was Carter BTW. But both Bushes and Carter lacked any training and experience in leading men under stress and like McCain figured their own individual decisions which served them well enough to keep them alive instead of crashing into the ground at least was all that mattered.

Lesson: leadership is not easy, fighter pilots and Navy Commanders unless they've gone on to leadership of larger groups, such as fighter squadrons, or groups of naval vessels, make very bad leaders. Possibly the worst. Because every bit of experience has been to reinforce their own belief in their own decisions to the exclusion of getting other people on board or leveraging other people's talent and ability.

McCain btw is just as bad as Bush. Maybe even worse. Yes he was heroic in the skies over Vietnam and in the Hanoi Hilton, but he acted as an individual, a Dirty Harry. And what the country needs is not a Dirty Harry loner but a guy like say, Eisenhower. Who might be boring and dull, but actually got things done, and avoided great disasters. [JFK fits into the fighter pilot without any leadership mode too.]

Mark said...

Great analysis, anon. Probably a lot of truth to it.

Bush I and McCain both got shot down, BTW. And McCain crashed all on his lonesome and few times, too.

But I don't know that this is about leadership. It may be just as easily about loyalties; and their loyalties aren't with average Americans.

Anonymous said...

Bush 1 actually ejected from his bomber in the Pacific once, consigning his crew to death, rather than attempting a crash landing.

Anonymous said...

Bush 1 actually ejected from his bomber in the Pacific once, consigning his crew to death, rather than attempting a crash landing.

Ejected? Sorry you seem to be deeply misinformed. Avengers were not fitted with ejector seats. In those days aircrew had to climb out/jump unaided.

We really dont know exactly what damage the Avenger had sustained and whether the other crew were already dead/incapcitated at the time Bush jumped. Supposedly one of them also jumped but his chute didnt open. Its entirely possible that the other guy was already dead.

Berle said...

Bush and Rove are working to split the Hipanic vote away from the Republicans this year. That will make Jeb Bush the inevitable candidate 4 or 8 years from now.Jeb with his Mexican wife and his popularity in Texas and Florida along with the Bush money machine will be unstoppable. Watch as they ruin Republican chances this year.