July 7, 2010

Global Grand Strategy for 2100

This seemingly silly little incident of Joel Stein being forced to apologize for admitting to not liking Indian immigrants taking over his hometown reminded me that I've long sensed that the chief long term competitors (say, by 2100) in America for Jews will be Indians. A commenter had the same thought:
"Even if only 5% of Indians have the goods to be as successful as the American Asian Indian community (IQ and all) that still makes it more than 50 million plus. That is far higher than the entire Jewish population of the world. I think the Jewish lobby will have to give way to the upcoming Indian lobby as the most powerful in the land. Indians will eventually take over other areas of Jewish dominance too."

This becomes even more interesting when you look at the implications for global dominance. 

Since the end of the Cold War, the world has been dominated by the United States, or, more broadly, by the Anglosphere led by the U.S., or, most broadly, by the North Atlanticists (Anglosphere plus EU) more or less led by the U.S. 

There are, however, two gigastates, China and India, both of which are considerably more important economically than they were two decades ago. Both have been content to let the U.S. spend a fortune on military power while they build their strength. Why play the Great Game when you can sit it out? Let the rich, foolish Americans blunder around in Afghanistan and the like.

But, men play the Great Game not because it makes sense but because they like to win. So, it's unlikely that China and India will sit out the Great Game for the rest of the century. Let's assume that China and India eventually decide to play for dominance of the world.

If it can keep from falling apart, China, whose GDP is already well over half the U.S.'s, will surpass the U.S. economically in a fairly short period. India is a little under half of the GDP of China, so it would appear to have a tougher road ahead of it in the eventual struggle for world dominance with China. Moreover, China clearly has a stronger sense of national unity than India, which is riven by caste, religion, and a lack of a unified history.

But the Great Game is much more interesting than a simple, boring struggle for the largest GDP. 

The American colonies had a smaller GDP than the mother country during the American Revolution, for example, but Ben Franklin talked the French government into bankrupting itself for American independence. (He was quite the charmer.) In WWI, Germany, despite having tens of millions of German farmers and engineers in America, did not charm America, and thus lost. Israel, to cite a more recent example, has done quite well for itself strategically despite a limited GDP and being up against Arabs and their oil money.

So, the obvious card to play in the coming China vs. India global struggle is for influence and control over the fading Anglo-Euro world, especially because Anglos don't like to think about themselves being played.

When looked at from this perspective, India's chances against China in 2100 don't look so awful. Indians are better at learning English, and better at marketing ideas in English than Chinese. (One American marketing consultant in China has said that to Chinese factory owners, "marketing" means shouting "Real cheap! You buy now!")

Let's look at the leading Anglosphere countries and which way they are likely to tip (or be tipped):

Australia: China
Canada: I don't know. It could be close.
Britain: India
America: That's the big question

There are lots of Chinese in America. The Chinese have lots of money and will have even more in the future. Over several generations, the emotional distinctions between China and their neighbors and/or enemies like Vietnam, Korea, and Japan might fade, leaving a unified East Asian v. South Asian division from the perspective of the U.S.

On the other hand, I have a vague sense that the East Asians in America might wind up playing the role of Midwestern German-Americans in early 20th Century America, who were outmaneuvered by Anglophilic Eastern elites.

In this China v. India struggle for influence over America in the second half of the 21st Century, the key question will be which side American Jews come down in favor of. Currently possessing the optimal combination of power (35% of the Forbes 400 and 50% of the Atlantic 50 most influential media pundits), cohesion, and immunity from criticism as a group, they are the key players in a fractured market for power.

Which way will American Jews lean? That's  hard to predict.

It won't solely be a matter of material interest. Much of it will depend upon which Asian superpower best figures out which American Jewish buttons to push to get Jews to feel that healing the world depends upon the U.S. siding with either India or China. 

In this, I would bet on the Indians.

On the other hand, it's exactly the greater similarities between Jews and Indians that might lead Jews to resent Indians as their displacers, and conclude that they would be better off in a Chinese-run world where their skills would be more valuable.

We shall live in interesting times. 

Well, not me, personally. I'm not going to last that long, but somebody reading this will likely make it to 2100.

160 comments:

as said...

"I think the Jewish lobby will have to give way to the upcoming Indian lobby as the most powerful in the land. Indians will eventually take over other areas of Jewish dominance too."

This is unbelievably stupid.

I'm Indian, and Indians just aren't as smart or as well organized as the Jews are.

And a majority or most of the smart Indian men seem to marry whites anyway.

as said...

"India is a little under half of the GDP of China, so it would appear to have a tougher road ahead of it in the eventual struggle for world dominance with China"

Again, this is so stupid.

There isn't going to be any struggle whatsoever for world dominance with China.

I don't think you understand what Indian is like.

Yan Shen said...

I think its a bit unrealistic to oversell India's future potential. We're already well aware of the fact that the Indian American population is far from representative of the Indian population as a whole and that there are huge differences in ability between various groups and castes.

India currently lags behind China in many areas, and not just GDP wise. Think of any category, such as science or infrastructure or literacy rates, etc, and India lags behind China.

Anonymous said...

In this, I would bet on the Indians.

On the other hand, it's exactly the greater similarities between Jews and Indians that might lead Jews to resent Indians as their displacers, and conclude that they would be better off in a Chinese-run world where their skills would be more valuable.


Basically a deal has been cut already between Jews and Indians to form a strategic alliance against the Muslims.

The policies promoted by Jews during the 20th century have caused the technical pioneer population of the United States to start shrinking due to birth rates and demoralization. They know they need population to stave off Islam but they don't quite know where they are going to go to get replacement population for the United States pioneer Christians: China or India?

The fact that 82% of the population was against H-1b visa expansion when Congress voted overwhelmingly to expand it isn't just a demonstration of "corporate" power in the US. It's a demonstration of Jewish willingness to hand over key aspects of United States national security to India in exchange for a strategic global partnership with a large population center the Jews think they can manipulate pretty much the way they manipulate Christian populations in the West.

So it'll be a contest between two groups of the best zero-sum game players in the world. It's a toss-up but I think the Indians might have a slight upper-hand and then it becomes a question of whether the Jews jump ship or not.

We shall live in interesting times.

Indeed.

Derek said...

We're already seeing the beginning stages of this battle already, with guys like Sanjay Gupta, Bobby Jindal, Neel Kashkari, etc. entering the niches that run and rule society and that Jews have dominated (media, politics, finance, etc.). The competition is basically to enter and hold these key niches.

I don't think East Asians have a chance in this fundamentally political/social struggle competing against Indians and Jews due to a number of factors such as verbal IQ, social dominance, political savvy, manipulation skill, etc. N. Euro/Old Stock Americans were quite easily swept aside, and I don't see East Asians faring any better.

worf said...

India is out of the question and will remain out of the question for much of the century. Contrary to all the hype and hot air Indians blow, the Indian economy is still at the least two or so decades behind the Chinese.

The other thing to take into account is the possibility of India being balkanized or reconstituted. India is fundamentally so diverse I'm suprized it hasn't been balkanized yet. All an empowered China needs to do is set in motion the breakup of Pakistan or Sri Lanka, or even support seccessionist movements within India, and the Indian state will fragment into the multiple ethnolinguistic states within India as it is.

The 'Indian' American community isn't as monolithic as you think it is. There are numerous different ethnolinguistic groups whose differences might come to fore if things in India heat up.

Realistically there is no external threat that will slow the Chinese down. Jews, Indians, Americans, what have you, will not brake the rise of the new global hegemon, only internal issues can, and this I trust the CCP to handle well.

Whiskey said...

Steve, one of your dumber comments.

First, the US was bound to intervene against Germany in WWI because Germany both helped Mexico in its wars (violation of Monroe Doctrine) and led it to believe it would assist in reconquering US territory, lost in 1845.

If that wasn't enough, Germany threatened to create a gigantic Continental market excluding America, running most of Europe and thus threatening America's strategic military and economic interests (basically a proto-USSR but with better management and engineers). That was never going to be allowed no matter who was running things.

Finally, China and India both fare poorly in the long run, because they face deep internal poverty, sex imbalances, lack of internal markets (they are totally export based, depending on the US), and even a hope of increasing Domestic consumption by creating a vast middle class.

I don't know why you are obsessed with Jews -- they won't exist in any meaningful terms in thirty years. Due to not having kids, intermarriage, and most of them being wiped out in Europe 60+ years ago, Israel itself doomed as a "one bomb state" as Iran has boasted.

Jews don't even exist in the US as much as Muslims do, and Muslims have a far greater sense of identity, reproduction, use of violence (just criticize Muslims or Islam, and see what happens), and so on.

FAR more likely, is a Dark Ages. Along the lines of the first one, at 1100 BC, when the Hittite, Assyrian, Babylonian, Mycenean, Minoan, and Phoenician empires all fell to the Sea Peoples. Only the Egyptians survived in vastly limited form, retreating up the Nile to Memphis, abandoning the Sea and Delta. No cities, no trade, no metallurgy, nothing but death and destruction for six hundred years.

Europe is likely to be all Muslim in thirty years. China to be fighting resource wars. Beset by Muslim attacks. Russia will be all Muslim. India will be riven by Hindu-Muslim civil wars, backed by Pakistan. Israel is a dead-cinch to be wiped out in the next five years, unless they nuke Iran first (the UAE Foreign Minister urged bombing Iran arguing it was more humane and cheaper in the long run to do so).

I don't see oil getting cheaper, anyone getting more productive in China, domestic consumption rising due to a middle class there (or India) while Muslim masses seethe with anger and eye the infidel as easy marks.

If anything, the US is the Egyptians. Surviving in limited form, ala Mexico Norte.

cad said...

I don't know why you are obsessed with Jews -- they won't exist in any meaningful terms in thirty years. Due to not having kids, intermarriage, and most of them being wiped out in Europe 60+ years ago, Israel itself doomed as a "one bomb state" as Iran has boasted.

But Whiskey, you just said in the recent Haim Saban thread that Israel is a crucial ally of the US. If they're not going to exist in a few decades, why expend so much blood and treasure on the alliance?

Anonymous said...

the great story of the 21st century will be that while the usa farted around in iraq and afghanistan, the chinese were preparing for the big game...

Anonymous said...

I'm not so sure America will be around in another 90 years. We will, perhaps as early as 2042, be entering uncharted waters, since the nation was created in 1776, with a white minority population. But one thing is clear to me; the golden age of American Jews is coming to an end. Most Hispanics (who will be 25% of the total population in 2050, never mind 2100) have no use for Jews. There are extremely few Jews in Latin America and Latinos do not see Jews as a fellow ethnic group but simply as the richest and most privileged of Whites. Then there are the growing number of Arabs and many, many other muslim groups. Very small just 45 years ago, their numbers will be quite high in 90 years. They have no use for Israel or Jews. Finally low birth rates, inter-marriage and possible emigration will much reduce the number of Jews in America too. By 2100 the Holocaust will have ended 155 years ago, as far back in time as 1855 is from us today. A valuable propaganda piece for Jews and Israel will have worn out its shelf life. The safest prediction? Jews will be much less powerful and influential in the America of the future (assuming the country even holds together. Who thought the once-mighty USSR would implode so rapidly?). The Irony of all this is that Jews have largely caused this fact themselves. While intelligent individually, they display very poor group judgement as a community. They were a key (I would even say decisive) group pushing for the disastrous immigration act of 1965. Perhaps they may ultimately find themselves hoisted on their own petard?

Anonymous said...

Whiskey said:

I don't know why you are obsessed with Jews -- they won't exist in any meaningful terms in thirty years. Due to not having kids, intermarriage, and most of them being wiped out in Europe 60+ years ago, Israel itself doomed as a "one bomb state" as Iran has boasted.

See:

"Israel’s Future is Young: Jewish Birthrate Up, Muslim Rate Down"
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/133460

"Demographic Revolution: Jewish, Arab Growth Equal in Jerusalem"
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/137466

"Demographic Trend in Israel’s Favor"
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/news.aspx/137790

Anonymous said...

The Chinese are a managerial race. They are not a master race. Those who are burying the US are premature, to say the least.

Anonymous said...

What happens will happen. The way you describe it is if it would be plotted as an active strategy. But that is doubtful. Sympathies of peoples will evolve.

agnostic said...

Given the recent story about the struggle for brides among Chinese men, due to the related struggle for land as a result of the Chinese housing bubble, who says they'll remain nationally minded for that long?

Looks like there's plenty of dormant intra-national strife that's ready to blow up by 2100. That'll only be exacerbated as they modernize more and come to resemble to petty status warriors of the West. How long until Stuff Han People Like?

So India's being more backward might prove an advantage. Only some regions of the world are even capable of being global superpowers; the rest we ignore. Who says that Peter Turchin's chronicling of the rise and fall of group solidarity, taken from Ibn Khaldun, will cease in capitalist societies?

Looks like over the long haul the West will be in the decline phase, could have even started by now given how many internal culture wars we've had recently. If China precedes India in following in the West's footsteps, they'll be the first to tear themselves apart from inside. That would leave only India standing, although in time it too would fracture.

Then things would get really interesting.

Anonymous said...

I think anglosphere jews are already heavily locked in on India, because there is a robust Indian Jewish community and the Chinese effectively eliminated the ethnically Chinese jewish community (I think communist culture programs were the final blow to an already dying community). It's not too different from asking at this stage "will jews choose the middle east or east central africa for their homeland?" -the forces of alignment for jews and indians are too strong, barring screw ups too spectacular for me to see by indian elites in the future.

I think WASPS have more flexibility -colorism can allow outgrouping indians and ingroping chinese and aryanism and anglophonism anglojurisprudencism and democratism can allow ingrouping indians and outgrouping chinese.

The terrible game of the islamosphere currently allows all the worlds major powers to align with each other nicely in their own versions of wars on muslim terror. I see no inherent reason for that not to persist for a long, long time, given how much more decentralized islamic antagonism is than the soviet variety.

Hopefully Anonymous

http://www.hopeanon.typepad.com

Anonymous said...

Steve,
I doubt if will all pan out as you say, it's too oversimplistic to say that one 'western' (remember the USA, France and Britain will have non-white majorities) power will 'back' either India or China for sentimental reasons.
As ever the future is completely unpredictable and cold hard calculation - based on events and facts as presented at the time, will prevail.

asdfasdfasd said...

I'm gonna die laughing. Please stop. Reminds me of the 80s. Rising Sun, Japan's gonna rule the world.

adsfasdfasdf said...

If China had 600 million people, it would be a huge advantage. With 1.3 billion, it is a drag.

Guru Bhai or Buy said...

Yes, we will take over the world. It is our karma.

Anonymous said...

Steve,
The USA intervened in WW1 (against the avowed wish of the founding fathers against interference in European wars), simply because the ruling class of America at that time was of English descent - and generally they hated seeing their ancestral land suffer a grievious beating (it was very likely that England would have surrendered after the Russian collapse and before American intervention).
A majority of white Americans were of German descent at that time, but Anglo-Saxons held all the levers of power.

Anonymous said...

It'd be interesting if Indians took over, but Indians are doing plenty well in dis country....

Medical Schools - 10-15% Indian
Law Schools - Not too many Indians yet.
MBA programs - Easily 10%. Some more selective programs (Harvard, Duke, etc.) might be up to 20%. No joke.
Wall Street - 5-8% of the entry level associates and analysts seem to be Indian-American.
Entertainment - Not too many. Kal Penn and Shyamalan are about it.
Media - Sanjay Gupta, Ali Velshi, Priya David, and quite a few journalists.
Universities - Lots of professors and grad students. Especially science and engineering.
Corporate - CEO of Pepsi, Citigroup, and few other companies are Indian.

Compared to East Asians, Indian immigration is more selective. Indians also have MUCH stronger verbal skills, which is why they can succeed in places like Wall Street and Corporate America.

A good question would be whether Indians continue to climb the mountain or whether there's rapid regression to the mean with new immigrants. That'll tell us enough.

By the way, India has a lot of high IQ people. The mean IQ might be something like 91 or 92, but that means maybe 10 million people with IQs over 125 and many of those people want to immigrate. Indian-Americans come from the upper IQ class generally. Also, Indians tend to be highly motivated, hard working, desirous to make money, and have families that emphasize/push education on the kids. This helps, a lot.

Smart Indian men tend to in marry with other smart Indian women.

fadfasdfasdf said...

Great Game is over. It is so passe. China doesn't want to control the world. Never did and never will want to. China wants to be a great nation and the dominant regional power, not a world power. It is not in their cultural DNA.
Chinese have had a long standing bridge to the outside world via Hong Kong and Singapore; overseas Chinese are very much up-to-date with all things Anglo-American-philic, but most Chinese are, well, too Chinese to think internationally in great power terms.

Also, no power can dominate the world as in the days of the British and French empires. US basically inherited the power from the vacuum created by the fall of European empires and justified its 'hegemony' during the Cold War.
The Cold War ended. US then tried to move into the vacuum created by fall of the Soviet Empire, but it's been a huge headache in Central Asia. Ukraine and Georgia didn't turn out so great either.

Why would the Chinese care about or for any of that?

China and Japan will economically grow closer, but they'll never be on friendly terms. Both are too insular in the way they think and feel deep in their hearts. They feel comfortable that way. They'll be cordial and polite, but never close.

India is a huge mess. Sure, it has a lots of smart people, but the masses of poor dummies will remain poor dummies and they outnumber the smarties. There are hundreds of millions of these hopeless dummies. Also, it is a hot hot hot country. Hot and steamy, putrid and sweaty. Sure, much has changed since the India we see in the fascinating PHANTOM INDIA by Louis Malle, but too much remains the same. Hot, steamy, lazy, crazy, dirty, foul, and yech.

There is much to love but maybe more to hate. If anyone's seen Bollywood movies, you know these people are not gonna be world leaders. They are good merchants and engineers maybe, but not the visionary type.

To be sure, there has been a long spiritual tradition in India, but it's been inward, not outward. Christianity sought to change the world and offered both a spiritual and a pragmatic activist way of going about it.

Hinduism and its offshoot Buddhism was about accepting the world as it is and escaping within via meditation and all that rigamarole. There is no harmony between the secular/worldly and spiritual/moral in Indian tradition.
Indians are culturally, intellectually, historically, and socially too confused and contraditory to pull off anything major as a nation.
And there is the Hindu-Muslim time bomb, much bigger worry for India than China.

(It is ironic that Japan, Russia, China, and India--all traditional enemies or rivals--are at least coming together in business terms thanks to the world order created by Judeo-Anglo powers.)

Anonymous said...

The WWI reference is quite interesting. You mentioned the German-Americans' loyalty to the old fatherland, but also the Irish-Americans didn't have a dog in the race but hated Britain and really, really didn't want the US allied with Britain; and Jewish-Americans of German background were at that time as loyal to the fatherland as gentile G-As, and those from the Russian Empire hated Russia because it was then the world centre of Anti-semitism.
So we see (1) pretty well all White ethnic groups in the US have some foreign cause in which they are indifferent to the interests of the US (this was still very obvious during the Cold War);(2)the fact that the US did ally with Britain, France and Russia against Germany shows that ethnic lobbies don't have that much influence.

jody said...

mexicans already rival ashkenazi jews in the US for influence and power.

they have far more effect on what happens in the US than the chinese or indians ever will, and in the next 20 years, mexicans will probably overtake the politically active segment of the jewish population.

steve correctly points out that euro americans have deliberately stopped acting normally IE in self interest. politically, they do not identify with their nation of origin whatsoever.

this is how the US was supposed to work. only euro americans got the memo, though. every other group continues to act normally.

jody said...

german-americans were just plain american and went off to europe by the hundreds of thousands specifically to kill other germans. several of my ancestors did exactly this.

likewise for the english.

but, this is something that will NEVER, EVER happen again in human history.

there will never be a US army with with a hundred thousand mexican soldiers who voluntarily go into battle to smash and destroy mexico, to kill mexican-mexicans by blowing their brains out.

1 million english speaking chinese soldiers will never voluntarily ship off to china to blast the guts out of other chinese men with .223 remington and .308 winchester rounds.

about the best you can do is getting a few percentage points of them to serve in direct violent action against their own ethnic group. maybe 10% of them will voluntarily kill their own people under a political premise. most of them just see guys from the same race, and the politics of the situation are immediately irrelevant. race is above everything. they are (fill in the blank with group) first, and american second.

should any euro americans finally decide another civil war is a good idea, the US government will deploy predominantly euro american military forces to kill them. the US government would not be able to rely on any other ethnic group to do the same thing though. not in numbers. very few will deliberately go out and kill dozens of people from their own ethnic group just because the US government told them to.

the US government cannot depend on any ethnic group other than euro americans to deliberately go out and kill thousands of their own kind. they just won't do it. that's cold hard reality. the real life, non-PC, logistical situation any commanding officer will deal with.

Anonymous said...

Of course, when we are talking about financial power, the Chinese already have the whip-hand, effectively making the USA (with all its pomp), its vassal.
The current financial catastrophe, which has no end in sight and has give the USA a mauling to en all maulings, really took a turn for the worse when Chinese investors were spooked that US Government (supposedly) backed Fannie and Freddie debt did not have a government guarantee.
The Chinese threatened to pull the plug.The USA panicked and insured all Fannie and Freddie debt before things really turned nasty.
It's remarkable to note tthat a mere 25 years ago, China simply did not figure at all as a financial power.As my trusty Rand-McNally pocket atlas told me their biggest exports were pig bristles (for paint brushes), tung oil (whatever that is), and soya beans.
I remember them being so broke that they paid for industrial orders with mens' underwear!
Who knows how far they'll advance in another 25years?

Simon in UK said...

I love speculating about this stuff.

In terms of human capital though, I think the 80-20 'rule' comes in here.

China is roughly 80% Han Chinese, one ethnicity of hundreds of millions with median IQ around 105, and 20% minorities, mostly lower IQ.

India comprises an enormous number of ethnicities and is roughly 20% higher classes with moderate to high IQs (though probably less than 5% are equivalent to IQ 110 US Jews), 80% low IQ peasants.

India has points of light, some degree of English-law derived property rights, and an Anglicised elite - traditionally socialist. It also has a very large and rapidly growing Muslim minority. But overall China seems much more strongly placed in terms of human capital; unless there's an internal disaster or nuclear war with US or Russia, by 2100 China will be much more powerful than India and the West combined, and won't need to win the influence game, because she will be the stand-alone hyperpower.

Howard Hughes said...

"the fact that the US did ally with Britain, France and Russia against Germany shows that ethnic lobbies don't have that much influence."
Nah, it shows that they didn't have that much influence that time (does there even exist a German-American lobby). There's only a few ethnic lobbies with real influence: the Cubans, the Jews, etc.

Simon in UK said...

anon:
"The Chinese are a managerial race. They are not a master race. Those who are burying the US are premature, to say the least."

The implication of that is that the Middle Kingdom will once again be the most powerful State in the world, but will not seek to impose a global peace in the mode of Pax Britannica-Pax Americana. China several times more powerful than the USA will surely not tolerate Pax Americana where it conflicts with Chinese interests, though.

India meanwhile seems unlikely to seek global dominance, but to retain the alliance with Russia. And the Sunni Muslim states will continue to seek to influence the US & Europe to side with them against Russia-India.

Anonymous said...

As an adoptee who's cryptically claimed to "believe" himself to be at least half Jewish you somehow continue to fail to realize that Jewish cohesiveness isn't all that your imagination can come up with. As an ACTUAL life-long card-carrying member of international Jewry I can assert quite plainly, and not a little bit sadly, that Jewish cohesiveness is more of a myth in the minds of antisemites than it is a real world fact. Mind you many Jews, primarily orthodox ones, retain synagogues that function as churches and small towns did in the 1950s and earlier for cohesive benefits but this doesn't move past the orthodox (and possibly expat Israeli) community with any seriousness in either quantity or quality.

There are far far FAR more poor and even starving Jews than you can imagine and far more Jews living in trailer parks in prisons than you can imagine. These folk - including CLOSE PERSONAL FRIENDS OF MINE - obviously don't advertise their heritage though. The Holocaust guilt trip will do them no good among their poor and criminal buddies and every other aspect of being descended from bacon-refrainers will do them ill.

None of which was my point in commenting now but which REALLY needs to be said as often as possible in this atmosphere where people tend to hate me and mine because of what some asshole "jewish leader" or know-nothing jewish loudmouth happens to spout in the name of all Jews everywhere.

My reason for hitting the "comments" hyperlink though was just to offer you this data. By pretty much any definition but the religious one (which few here care for of course) I'm Jewish and I can say that with some definitiveness that I'm generally more inclined to like Indian people than Oriental ones. Part of this may have to do with my abiding reverence for Gandhi but I think the lion's share of this prejudice is based on the fact that so many Indians seem friendly and, well, human, while so few Orientals do.

Don't get me wrong, I've met and liked plenty of Orientals too but over all, Orientals exhibit far fewer emotions, openness to strangers, individuality or independence than do Indians. I think your average Orientals may respect "Jewry" as a whole more than an average Indian would but that's precisely because Indians seem to be more Western (Jewish?) in their approach to viewing people as individuals rather than as members of some mass of humans and, plainly, I regard myself first and foremost as "me" and maybe eighthmost as a Jew (I recognize the irony of being asked to be viewed as an individual while generalizing about Desis and Orientals). And I happen to have been professionally and personally involved with being Jewish all my life, I imagine that this identification order is even further down the list for most of my co-religionists.

Yeah, so there's one tiny data point. While I personally care to succeed personally more than I care for whether any particular group succeeds, I've long rooted for Indians over the Chinese, they just seem far more...human.

Anonymous said...

I just tried commenting but it didn;t go through. If this goes through I'll repost in two parts.

Simon in UK said...

anon:
"A majority of white Americans were of German descent at that time"

This has never been true. The vast majority of the founding population was British, and most of that was English. Germans have only ever been a majority in parts of the mid-West.

Anonymous said...

India, which is riven by caste, religion, and a lack of a unified history.

Now you're just being plain silly, everyone knows those are strengths, not weaknesses.

OhioStater said...

I would say Jews are more likely to work with Indians since the Chinese are very frugal. They say its hard for an Israeli to take advantage of another Israeli; for similar reasons it would be hard to take advantage of the Chinese.

l said...

The US and China will likely go to war -- or at least battle via proxies -- before the century's over. The US is doing a lot to antagonize the Chinese: Constantly preaching about human rights, mucking about in (resource rich) Central Asia, encouraging "pro-democracy" (i.e. separatist) movements within Tibet and other ethnic regions. To add insult to injuries, we will reward China for investing in US Treasuries with massively inflated dollars. I suppose if we win we can write off the debt we owe.

Anonymous said...

"The WWI reference is quite interesting. You mentioned the German-Americans' loyalty to the old fatherland, but also the Irish-Americans didn't have a dog in the race but hated Britain and really, really didn't want the US allied with Britain;"

Both groups had no influence or representation at the time in any of the "commanding heights" of the economy, mass media, academia, or politics.

" and Jewish-Americans of German background were at that time as loyal to the fatherland as gentile G-As, and those from the Russian Empire hated Russia because it was then the world centre of Anti-semitism."

That all completely flip-flopped when the Czar was overthrown. Any lingering fondness for Germany was thrown out the window when the Zionists were presented with an opportunity to extract a British promise in regards to Palestine, as payment for getting the USA into WWI. Google Benjamin H. Freedman.

"So we see (1) pretty well all White ethnic groups in the US have some foreign cause in which they are indifferent to the interests of the US (this was still very obvious during the Cold War);(2)the fact that the US did ally with Britain, France and Russia against Germany shows that ethnic lobbies don't have that much influence."

No, it shows that some ethnic lobbies have more influence than others.

Anonymous said...

Jews have already been thinking about these very issues.

http://web.archive.org/web/20060701180908/http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/730443.html

"Questions of survival"
By Shmuel Rosner
Haaretz

"Two groups of Jews gathered together last weekend at Wye Plantation, Maryland for a long discussion on the situation of the Jewish people. The first group, which met Wednesday and Thursday, consisted of the heads of 15 Jewish organizations such as the Presidents' Conference, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the Anti-Defamation League, the Union of Orthodox Jewish Congregations, the American Jewish Committee and others. In the second group were the "thinkers," as the organizers termed them: Natan Sharansky from Israel, Charles Krauthammer from The Washington Post, former Canadian justice minister Irwin Cotler, former Jewish Agency head Sallai Meridor and many others.

The Institute for Policy Planning of the Jewish People had organized this gathering. It had a somewhat ambitious aim - a strategic debate about the future of the Jewish people. In actuality, it focused on three issues: the challenge posed by Islam, the situation in Israel, and the weighty question of whether the Jewish people are on the rise or on the wane.

Several of his conclusions provoked disagreement. For example: "Getting all Jews into the same shape and country, even if it is Israel, as recently advocated by an Israeli [writer, A.B. Yehoshua - S.R.] is not the best survival strategy." Some of the Israeli participants did not like that idea. Granting official legitimacy to the Diaspora would be a mistake, Meridor said, according to some of those who participated. That would be the end of Zionism as we know it.

The fear expressed that "a real decline of the West, particularly the United States, would have dramatic consequences for the Jewish people," also led to controversy. Brandeis University president Jehuda Reinharz agreed that this type of decline can be expected "in the coming two decades" - but Stuart Eisenstadt was less emphatic about it. He believes the United States will remain the leading power. In all events, it was agreed the Jews "should strengthen cultural links with non-Western civilizations, particularly China and also India," powers that are on the ascent. This is not a question of preference or closeness; it is a question of survival, of readiness for the future. How should this be done? That will have to be the topic of discussion in the next gatherings already being planned."

Anonymous said...

'I don't know why you are obsessed with Jews -- they won't exist in any meaningful terms in thirty years.'

That will be a great loss.

headache said...

It's really easy to trash the Chinese GDP. Import tariffs. But it seems that US and EU elites will rather lose the battle for global dominance than revert back to nationalism.

headache said...

We will, perhaps as early as 2042, be entering uncharted waters, since the nation was created in 1776, with a white minority population.

This is not unchartered water. Rhodesia and then South Africa have already gone through the hell waiting for whites in the US. Enjoy, since the majority of you guys denounced whites in southern Africa and thought they deserved what they got. Yet it was primairly the US gov. which forced its self-destructive policies on those tiny white states and destroyed them.

Mark Wethman said...

One thing to keep in mind when weighing the relative future influence of the Indians and Chinese in Anglosphere countries is current fertility rates. The statistics that I've seen out of Canada show that Indians have much higher fertility rates than the Chinese. The Chinese in Australia also have the lowest fertility rates of all the ethnic groups. I haven't seen any stats for the U.S. or England, but I think there's a good chance the situation in those countries is the same. The Chinese diaspora really seems to have internalized the one child propaganda.

The current population breakdown by country according to wikipedia is:

Canada: 1.3 million Chinese; 1.2 million Indians
U.S.: around 3 million Chinese; 2.7 million Indians
UK: 400,00 Chinese (that's it?!); 1.3 million Indians
Australia: 670,000 Chinese; 235,000 Indians

I think it's likely that the number of Chinese immigrants to these countries will decline in coming years as China develops economically. The number of Indian immigrants will probably depend more on the immigration policies of the destination countries, which are hard to predict, but I think it's a safe bet that the number of Indian immigrants will exceed the number of Chinese immigrants over the coming decades in each of the Anglosphere countries save perhaps Australia, which is probably going to fall into China's sphere of influence regardless because of geography. Combine this with present fertility differentials, and I think it's reasonable to bet that there will be more Indians in the Anglosphere than Chinese come 2100.

Also, will people please stop spreading the meme that Europe is going to be majority Muslim in 30/50/100 years? It's not. Muslim fertility in Europe is falling quickly; Muslim immigration to France, which has the largest Muslim population of any western European country, was stemmed in the 90s; the Conservatives in Great Britain are about to make good on their promise to slash the number of non-EU immigrants to the UK each year from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands; and more Turks are leaving Germany than are entering (not that they were ever that large a population to begin with). Christ.

Mark Wethman said...

Also, the coming extinction of U.S. Jews is overhyped. Mainstream Jews will probably by fully absorbed by mainstream America and extinct by 2100, but the ultra-Orthodox certainly won't. Britain last year saw the first increase in the number of Jews since World War II because of high fertility rates among the ultra-Orthodox; we can expect something similar to happen here eventually.

Anonymous said...

Steve, the aim of the Chinese govt is to topple the US as the hegemon and in response, the US has a set of defacto anti-chinese defense treaties

The Indian govt has no such aims and instead plans to inherit the US zones of influence, as the US weakens ( like the US inherited from the british after WW2 )

Thousands of Chinese spies have been arrested in the USA, vs almost no Indians

Historically during the Tang empire, the Tang empire and Indian kings had an anti-islamic alliance and if buddhism rises again in China, there will be more co-operation

Anonymous said...

Worf, for the last 50 years China has supported Indian maoists and Indian separatists in the North-east and of course Pakistan

India will not balkanise, because in each state, the 5% brahmins are a high IQ cognitive elite, who are related much more closely to other brahmins in other Indian states, than to a non-brahmin neighbor in the next street

Secessionist movements are strong whereever the brahmin is weak

North east India- xtian separatists
Punjab - Sikh separatists
Kashmir = muslim separatists
Maoists = Liberation theology christians

Chief Seattle said...

Current Jewish power in the U.S. is largely a result of the first generation immigrant energy exhibited after WWII.

The second generation is far more comfortable and less impressive - as tends to happen everywhere. I wouldn't count on a Jewish powerhouse sticking around in the same form 30 years from now.

India still has malaria in their cities. That's a disease that the U.S. eradicated in the early 20th century. So they may export a few prominent surgeons or Java programmers, but the country itself is no where near force projection.

Anonymous said...

The vast majority of the founding population was British, and most of that was English. Germans have only ever been a majority in parts of the mid-West.

I dunno.

Maybe if you added together English, Welsh, Scots, Scots-Irish, other Irish Protestants [to include Irish Huguenots], Southern Irish Papists, Nova Scotian immigrants to the USA, etc etc etc, then you might get more than the Germans.

But for a long time, Germany was first among all nations in terms of immigrants.

[In the last ten years or so, it's probably been surpassed by the category of "Generic Central American Aboriginal", and probably even by the category of "Mexican Indian" alone.]

Dahinda said...

One American marketing consultant in China has said that to Chinese factory owners, "marketing" means shouting "Real cheap! You buy now!"


This reminds me of the Chinese/Cajun take out place on a concourse in Chicago's Union Station. During the rush hours employees would hold up free samples of their food and angily yell at passing commuters "Come Here! You try now! Yummy Yummy!" Even the Yummy Yummy part was angry!

Anonymous said...

My bet is on a Burkina Faso/ Lichtenstein rivalry for world dominance by 2100.

Anonymous said...



In WWI, Germany, despite having tens of millions of German farmers and engineers in America, did not charm America, and thus lost.

C'mon Steve, you're better than that! You can't seriously claim that Woodrow Wilson consulted FARMERS or ENGINEERS when making the decision to help the British? He consulted Louis Brandeis and other German Jews, and all were pressuring him heavily to support England, which had not coincidentally just written the Balfour Declaration.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure how you can profess to believe so much in IQ and think that China v. India will turn out to be much of a rivalry.

Don't the current best guesses put Chinese IQ just under 110 and Indian IQ just under 90? (Yes, Indians in this country are very smart and more successful than any other group, including Chinese, but a high percentage of them get in on H1B visas so they're not a representative sample. Indiaas a whole seems to have roughly the average intelligence of Mexico.)

Unless you believe that poverty, malnutrition and tropical weather has suppressed Indian IQ, which will climb well above 100 when the country matures, then you have to believe that China 2100 will have at least two or three times the per capita wealth and power of India. It will also have the enormous military advantage that comes with having and army full of high IQ people rather than low IQ people.

What am I missing? Can you write a little more about how countries with similar population numbers but a 20-point IQ gap could possible be real rivals? Better government in India?

Gaurav Ahuja said...

"And a majority or most of the smart Indian men seem to marry whites anyway." Where is the evidence for this statement? I do not believe it is true in America or any other first world country. Second, another comment stated the average IQ is 91 or 92. There is no evidence for that statement either. That might be true for certain castes, but it is definitely not true for India(whether it is the country or greater India). Also, someone stated that Indian Americans cannot be unified in America. I agree. Mr. Sailer may have underestimated how diverse immigration from India is to America. Religion, color, etc. are all dividing factors.

Anonymous said...

I'm Indian, and Indians just aren't as smart or as well organized as the Jews are.



True, they are not as well organized at present. But there are more smart Indians than smart Jews.

On the other hand there are more smart white people than there are smart Jews, and its not helping white people.

Which suggests that Jewish success is built on being organized more than on being smart. For some reason this is controversial around here.

Anonymous said...

I don't think East Asians have a chance in this fundamentally political/social struggle competing against Indians and Jews due to a number of factors such as verbal IQ, social dominance, political savvy, manipulation skill, etc.



I've never understood this claim that Jews possess exceptional "verbal IQ". I've read a lot of Jewish writers and the quality of their arguments is shockingly bad.

They dominate in the "verbal" professions because of their "social dominance, political savvy, manipulation skill, etc", not because they are running intellectual rings around everyone else.

Anonymous said...

A little off-topic, but one of the headlines at Slashdot this morning is about a Chinese company with an IQ threshold of 140 for its Chinese employees but only 125 for its American employees.

Shortly thereafter is another Slashdot story about how Google couldn't give away $10 million for 5 good ideas.

Anonymous said...

Compared to East Asians, Indian immigration is more selective. Indians also have MUCH stronger verbal skills, which is why they can succeed in places like Wall Street and Corporate America.



Wall Street and corporate America also love their dark skin. I know this hurts the overinflated Indian ego, but you're not here because you're so darn smart.

dearieme said...

A Frenchman might opine:
"The USA is a huge mess. Sure, it has a lots of smart people, but the masses of poor dummies will remain poor dummies and they outnumber the smarties. There are hundreds of millions of these hopeless dummies. Also, much of it is a hot hot hot country. Hot and steamy, putrid and sweaty. Sure, much has changed since the 1950s but too much remains the same. Hot, steamy, lazy, crazy, dirty, foul, and yech.

There is much to love but maybe more to hate. If anyone's seen Hollywood movies, you know these people are not gonna be world leaders. They are good merchants and engineers maybe, but not the visionary type."

Anonymous said...

" Over several generations, the emotional distinctions between China and their neighbors and/or enemies like Vietnam, Korea, and Japan might fade, leaving a unified East Asian v. South Asian division from the perspective of the U.S."

This will be accelerated by intermarriage, due to the shortage of Chinese bachelors.

My theory is that global Jewry with fade away, also due to intermarriage. Jewish males, like white technogeeks, have a special affinity for Chinese and Japanese brides. My wife tells me there was once a large Jewish comminity living in 11th century Henan, China, that simply vanished into the mists of time, leaving behind a province known to this day for its people's quick wit and academic ability. You figure it out.

Jewish women -- especially the smart ones -- tend to go for un-hung-up WASPs, Irish, and Italians, which leaves a rapidly diminishing number of observant Jews to carry on their traditions. And Israel will be overwhelmed by the Israeli Arab birthrate, just as America will be overwhelmed by that of Mestizos.

In the end, I think East Asia wins for both the quality and quantity of human reproduction. As for the Indians, the only ethnic group I know that finds their women sort of attractive are the Italians, so Indians don't really have the ability to absorb the talented Anglo classes.

armchair likudnik said...

Regarding that back-of-the-envelope estimate about the talented 5% of India amounting to more than all the Jews in the world and thus overwhelming Jewish influence in America, you seem to assume all those talented Indians will want to live in America.

Dutch Boy said...

The mid-western Germans were outmaneuvered because the Anglo elite controlled the levers of power in the New York/Washington axis. It's the same reason that the most populous state in the Union has relatively little influence in Washington (you gotta be there or be square).
Whiskey's comments are even dumber than usual.

Evil Sandmich said...

So, the obvious card to play in the coming China vs. India global struggle is for influence and control over the fading Anglo-Euro world...

Reminds me of how for centuries the Great Powers of Europe kept the Ottoman Empire alive just so they could beat each other over the head with it.

Dutch Boy said...

BTW: the crucial alliance in this game has been between the CCP and the American business elite. Send your manufacturing base and its support systems to China and we'll provide you with an unlimited supply of cheap labor. The winners: the CCP and US business elite. The losers: the American wage-earning classes.

Cale in Atlanta said...

I, for one, welcome our future Indian and/or Chinese overlords. How bad could it be? Are they going to burn down my city and put blacks in charge?

Anonymous said...

"And a majority or most of the smart Indian men seem to marry whites anyway."

I've rarely see Indians (male or female) with whites and I'm at a large California university with many Indians.

The majority comment seems so absurd. I think you've been dreaming of white girls for too long.

dave said...

Excellent post Steve. This is what is great about your blog. Big, interesting questions.

As others point out China would seem to have many advantages. More unified ethnicity (Han), higher IQs, richer, better educated. But that has been true for most of Chinese history and didn't stop them from fighting two of the bloodiest civil wars in history.

And India's weakness -- ie poverty -- might turn out to be a strength as so many high IQ Indians move to America and achieve positions of power and influence. China is rich enough now to entice high IQ Chinese to stay.

I work with a lot of Chinese and Indian immigrants. I'm often struck at how difficult it is to relate to the Chinese on a personal level. I can make references to fairy tales and jokes about, say, the Green Lantern or Scooby Doo ... and the Indians will get the joke while the Chinese are typically clueless. Elite Indians grow up in an Anglosphere culture.

That shared Anglo-culture is why so many Indians have risen to cultural prominence in such a short period of time. Meanwhile we've had a sizable Chinese presence since the railroad days. Indians have achieved more in America in a few decades than the Chinese have in more than a century.

Gc said...

I can`t believe I will have to agree with fadfas. There will be now one global power in the future. What will drag China is their rotten corrupt system. Until now they have done economically well, but they haven`t faced real competition yet. One thing: They can`t ever form any global brand like Mercedes or Apple, because no-one wans`t to associate with their murderous regime. Maybe it`s like the 20th century Russia changed 21th century, which could have conquered the Europe and be number uno, if not their lousy system.
Europe will move less PC all the time. Same will happen to America. All the time WWII will be ever more distant memory as people remembering that era die, and people will be ever more as emotional with respect to WWII as they are towards Napoleonic wars.

Geoff Matthews said...

Going out on a limb, but I think that the internal conflicts that both nations will experience (China will get old before they get rich, the baby bust and accompanying 'little emperor' generation, the environmental disasters, India with the competing tribes and associated bigotries, deep poverty) will prevent them from reaching USA/British levels of influence. Particularly if their levels of wealth spark a rabble of agitators demanding that the wealth be spread around.

Anonymous said...

"The USA intervened in WW1 (against the avowed wish of the founding fathers against interference in European wars), simply because the ruling class of America at that time was of English descent - and generally they hated seeing their ancestral land suffer a grievious beating (it was very likely that England would have surrendered after the Russian collapse and before American intervention)."

*Bursts out laughing*

Do you know anything about the Great War? One can hardly claim the Germans were defeated on the battlefield thanks to the American Expeditionary Force. The most important contribution of the United Sates of America during that war was economic (providing materiel for money) and it turned out pretty well for the USA (a massive wealth transfer from the old powers to the USA). Indeed the American involvement in the two world wars is what created the USA as a superpower.

Anonymous said...

"This has never been true. The vast majority of the founding population was British, and most of that was English. Germans have only ever been a majority in parts of the mid-West".

If German-Americans weren't an absolute majority of white Americans, they were close to it. 1 in 3 of today's white americans have German ancestry, which makes German-Americans by far the largest white ethnic group. By 1900, the vast majority of Germans had immigrated, while there were large waves of Irish and Italians, among others, who had yet to arrive.

KissTheGoat said...

Along the lines of the Anonymous adoptee Jew, I too feel more comfortable with Iranians and Indians than with Chinese (I'm Euro).

Whether this is due to some deep Aryan connection, cultural or of temperament, or, just more simply that Chinese hide their emotions, I couldn't say. But Adoptee Jew feeling the same way supports the latter.

Anonymous said...

OT

Prop 187 Myths from Real Clear Politics

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/08/the_politics_of_arizonas_immigration_law_106221.html

Anonymous said...

jody:

I don't think African-American troops would have a problem killing Third World Africans.

Anonymous said...

"Who knows how far they'll advance in another 25years?"

There is potentially one asymptote to China's development: the need to keep so many people employed to prevent civil unrest. Chinese are compelled to labor by a deep worker bee, inner need. This builds inefficiencies into a modern economic system which needs an increasing number of consumers but fewer and fewer workers. The game changer for the US with a more or less fixed size educated class will be to follow the Japanese lead and radically implement robotics in industry and to switch to small nuclear power plants to create an internet like power industry. If we can fab everything we need and live off the global grid, we leave China to go to war over fossil fuel with India. I'm not sure what we do with the large low IQ Mexican population in future -- there will be less and less for them to do. Perhaps creative ways can be found to repatriate them to welfare colonies or reservations with amusement park rides built in Mexico but maintained by some special US Bureau of Hispanic Affairs. Housing project plumbing systems could include a separate pipe that provides beer made from hops and marijuana. Hey, this is a way cooler future than Mexifornia or Blade Runner.

Frankly, I'd like to see white people start colonies on Mars or Titan. The Earth is so retro. And white people, unlike the Asians and Indians, are pioneers by instinct. They have the outstanding levels of cooperation needed to survive hostile environments like outer space -- which is why they make such damn fine soldiers. And they have the essential inventors gene which Asians sorely lack. I'm looking forward to 2200 for the first official war between the planets.

And maybe all that cosmic radiation will mutate us into something new and interesting. Come on white people, let's have a little progress, goddammit.

Anonymous said...

The interesting part to me is how the world will change when the last Western power declines. And how fast will this decline be? Will it be a slow drift toward a narco-state of a Mexican nature, along with middle eastern/muslim mafia enclaves, and also maybe Columbia-style mafia para-military warlords? Will blacks and other non-aligned people be left to their own devices - welfare will be long gone by then. Or will it be a rapid implosion via war or by central governemnt violence against the populace (like post--revolutionary Russia)? The former seems like the more likely outcome when examining what's happening in Eastern Europe and Latin America today. In that case Chinese and Indian influence will be in the few areas where a central (of a region) goverment retains control. This will be done mostly via corruption and alignment with mafia groups which will own the politicians. Human rights - which have a different meaning for those demographics taking over the West - will be surpressed. A slave trade will probably be reviving at this point in time. There will be whole areas which are walled-off or which are walled-in - kind of like in South Africa today but on a larger scale. Whites will mostly likely function as mercenary class, but will have to bow down to mercantile Chinese overlords. The Chinese will not abandon this part of the world because it has nuclear weapons and will always pose a threat to them. The Chinese may deploy WMDs when the obtain enough of an advantage. Interesting time indeed...

Glossy said...

One thing to keep in mind is that high-caste Indians have below-replacement fertility even in India. There is no high-caste Indian equivalent to the Hasidim, who routinely have 10 kids per family.

The high castes are leaving India for the West where in addition to low birthrates they are faced with the issue of intermarriage. By 2100 they'll probably be well on their way to merging into America's and Britain's white populations. Without the upper classes India's prospects won't be very different from Pakistan's prospects.

If this debt-driven crisis proves to be significantly worse than the Great Depression, Chinese-Americans may well end up leaving for China. The Indians will be more likely to stay.

Anonymous said...

I would say Jews are more likely to work with Indians since the Chinese are very frugal.

Popular Burmese expression, "Earn like the Chinese, save like the Indian, and don't waste money like the Bamar!"

Melykin said...

Ohio stater wrote:
" would say Jews are more likely to work with Indians since the Chinese are very frugal. They say its hard for an Israeli to take advantage of another Israeli; for similar reasons it would be hard to take advantage of the Chinese"
===============================

No, the Jews won't be able to take advantage of the Indians. The Indians take advantage of everyone they can. Most white people in Canada will simply not do business with them because they don't want to get ripped off.

rich s. said...

I'm sure I wasn't the only one surprised to learn (via the Blago-trial tapes) that big Indian-American money was headed to the ex-guv if he gave the Senate seat to Cong. Jesse Jr.

Anonymous said...

there will never be a US army with with a hundred thousand mexican soldiers who voluntarily go into battle to smash and destroy mexico, to kill mexican-mexicans by blowing their brains out.

1 million english speaking chinese soldiers will never voluntarily ship off to china to blast the guts out of other chinese men with .223 remington and .308 winchester rounds.


I think Taiwanese and Singaporeans would fight China, if they had the faintest notion that they'd escape revenge and it served their state interests. I think Mexican-Americans would fight Mexico too, in a Mexican dominated US.

But you're right that I can't imagine either of these groups being that willingly to enlist in a White dominated US - unless they were really convinced they were "liberating" the motherland. They wouldn't fight because US interests were threatened, if though their individual interests weren't.

But then, I can't really imagine Whites in a Mexican dominated US being willing to right a land war in Europe that willingly either.

corvinus said...

I'm not sure that Indians are going to get into the victimhood racket like the blacks and Jews. Aside from their strange religion, and rather darker skin tone, they seem to be assimilating faster into the white mainstream than the East Asians. Someone brought up Bobby Jindal... but he (along with his entire family -- his wife is also Indian) is a convert to Catholicism and is Republican. (For some reason, Hindus seem to find Catholicism less alien to them than other Western faiths.) In addition, as Sailer has pointed out, the facile-tongued Indians pick up English much better than the Chinese, with their tonal, spondaic accent.

Incidentally, they also blow a hole in the "skin tone" argument that people use to explain blacks' failure. I've met quite a few Sri Lankans and South Indians with very dark skin but Caucasoid features and who behave just like Euro-Americans and seem to have a similar IQ as us too.

I'd say Indians are more comparable to the Russian immigration wave of the 1990s rather than the NAMs and the Jews. Sure, they tend to be liberal, but assimilable.

BamaGirl said...

"A majority of white Americans were of German descent at that time, but Anglo-Saxons held all the levers of power."

Anon, where did you get this idea? The U.S was probably over 80 percent British Isles descent at that time. Most Americans are still of mostly British Isles (over2/3 I'd guess) descent even today; the only reason Americans of German descent are officially more numerous is because they count English, Scottish, Scots-Irish, Irish, and Welsh separately.

Anonymous said...

British Isles != Anglo-Saxon.

Not unless you're Hispanic, in which case all whites are "Anglos".

Anonymous said...

Jews have already been thinking about these very issues.

http://web.archive.org/web/20060701180908/http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/730443.html

"Questions of survival"
By Shmuel Rosner
Haaretz

"Two groups of Jews gathered together last weekend at Wye Plantation, Maryland for a long discussion on the situation of the Jewish people. The first group, which met Wednesday and Thursday, consisted of the heads of 15 Jewish organizations such as the Presidents' Conference, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the Anti-Defamation League, the Union of Orthodox Jewish Congregations, the American Jewish Committee and others. In the second group were the "thinkers," as the organizers termed them: Natan Sharansky from Israel, Charles Krauthammer from The Washington Post, former Canadian justice minister Irwin Cotler, former Jewish Agency head Sallai Meridor and many others.

The Institute for Policy Planning of the Jewish People had organized this gathering. It had a somewhat ambitious aim - a strategic debate about the future of the Jewish people. In actuality, it focused on three issues: the challenge posed by Islam, the situation in Israel, and the weighty question of whether the Jewish people are on the rise or on the wane.

Several of his conclusions provoked disagreement. For example: "Getting all Jews into the same shape and country, even if it is Israel, as recently advocated by an Israeli [writer, A.B. Yehoshua - S.R.] is not the best survival strategy." Some of the Israeli participants did not like that idea. Granting official legitimacy to the Diaspora would be a mistake, Meridor said, according to some of those who participated. That would be the end of Zionism as we know it.

The fear expressed that "a real decline of the West, particularly the United States, would have dramatic consequences for the Jewish people," also led to controversy. Brandeis University president Jehuda Reinharz agreed that this type of decline can be expected "in the coming two decades" - but Stuart Eisenstadt was less emphatic about it. He believes the United States will remain the leading power. In all events, it was agreed the Jews "should strengthen cultural links with non-Western civilizations, particularly China and also India," powers that are on the ascent. This is not a question of preference or closeness; it is a question of survival, of readiness for the future. How should this be done? That will have to be the topic of discussion in the next gatherings already being planned."

beowulf said...

The current financial catastrophe, which has no end in sight and has give the USA a mauling to end all maulings, really took a turn for the worse when Chinese investors were spooked that US Government (supposedly) backed Fannie and Freddie debt did not have a government guarantee

Tthat's like a kidnapper threatening to kill himself, only a moron would find that a creditable threat. Its our IOUs, if China want to tear them up, right on, we can just print more if we like. Unlike Weimar Germany or Greece, all US debt is solely our own currency.

During World War II, Tsy ordered the Fed to buy all long bonds that didn't sell for less than 2.5% (and short bonds for less than 0.375%). The US ran 15% to 30% of GDP deficits for four years straight (equivalent to $2 to 4 trillion annual deficits today). I promise you FDR never spent 10 seconds worrying about the government running out of dollars. It has the patent rights on the damn things, it ain't ever running out.

Anonymous said...

"the US was bound to intervene against Germany in WWI because Germany both helped Mexico in its wars (violation of Monroe Doctrine) and led it to believe it would assist in reconquering US territory, lost in 1845."

That was pretty much a wasted effort wasn't it?

A pox on all these colonizers, none of them should be let in, regardless of their alleged qualities. Immigration policy has become a form of genocide.

Anonymous said...

UK: 400,00 Chinese (that's it?!)

1% of the population is not small.

Anonymous said...

Which suggests that Jewish success is built on being organized more than on being smart. For some reason this is controversial around here.

Gee, I wonder why?


**********


As for the Indians, the only ethnic group I know that finds their women sort of attractive are the Italians, so Indians don't really have the ability to absorb the talented Anglo classes.

Allow me to introduce you to Padma Lakshmi.


**********


PS: Whiskey is right.

Extinction-level fertility rates among most of the high-IQ tribes of the world [Han, Japanese, Korean, European, Blue State American, Leftist Jew, probably the Brahmin (although I haven't seen good numbers on the Brahmin)] means that we will be [or already are] looking at the onset of a new Dark Age [no pun intended].

The people who make the babies make the future.

And right now, smart people just aren't making any babies.

The only exceptions that I know of - worldwide - are Red State Christians and the Hasidim.

Anonymous said...

Those of you who believe that Asian Indians in the U.S.A are disunited and are nowhere near replacing the Jewish lobby, read this article ‘Forget the Israel Lobby. The Hill's Next Big Player Is Made in India.’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/28/AR2007092801350.html
Indians are quite a disunited lot but overall can show a lot of unity when living in a foreign land.

armchair likudnik said...
‘Regarding that back-of-the-envelope estimate about the talented 5% of India amounting to more than all the Jews in the world and thus overwhelming Jewish influence in America, you seem to assume all those talented Indians will want to live in America.’

Even if all of them do not want to stay in India they still represent a large tribal pool which can easily replenish the East Indian population in the U.S.A whose numbers will decrease because they have a low birth rate like Jews. Jews do not have that. The highly fertile Orthodox Jews in Israel will be encouraged to stay back to compete with the fertile Israeli Arabs and Palestinians.

I think in the long term, the U.K. and the U.S.A will go India’s way while Australia and New Zealand will go the way of China. Canada will be a battle ground between these two. To the person who wrote about how low the Chinese diaspora birth rate is, well you ignore the fact that highly educated Indians everywhere do not have high birth rates either. I have been to India lately and the high IQ middle class cream have a fertility rate less than 2 as most families have either 1 or 2 children and not more. If India experiences a rising population in the future it will be among the low IQ masses. Which means its slim chances of taking on high IQ China becomes slimmer still.

Difference Maker said...

In the end, I think East Asia wins for both the quality and quantity of human reproduction.

I wish that were the case, but the women are too flat and bucktoothed, etc for my tastes

The vast majority of the founding population was British, and most of that was English. Germans have only ever been a majority in parts of the mid-West.


German Americans are to this day the largest group by national origin of white people in the United States

Anonymous said...

About Indians entering Jewish dominated fields, well it has already started big time.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/reliance-entertainment-in-hollywood-deal/311658/

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jun2008/gb20080618_504190.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

The Indian Corporation Reliance Industries has already made an entry into Hollywood.

asdfasdfasdfaf said...

Maybe Hindus and Jews should intermarry and create a new people called the Hinjews.

This way, they can worship both God and the Golden Calf.

Anonymous said...

Great article and many good comments. I think one thing was less mentioned in all the discussions was what the global power balance in 2100 between US(or the West in general), China and India. The tilt of the US or the US Jewish population does not happen in a vacuum.

It seems to me that by that time, the U.S., while still one of the most powerful countries in the world, will more or less resemble a richer version of Brazil with nukes. China will certainly be one of the most powerful(if not the most powerful) countries in the world at that time. The trajectory of India is less certain, though if I were a betting man, I would bet that India will have a couple of decades of above average growth, then sink back down to mediocraty, so in 90 years, she will not be much of a force compared either to China or US. While the Jews in the U.S. were able to tilt the US to Israel against a group of Muslim countries whose citizens want to blow up our buildings, and whose combined GDP was less than Spain, the Jews in the U.S., for the sake of survival, will have to go with who has the power. My bet is that they will side with China, for the sake of Jewish survival in the U.S. and world wide.

Anonymous said...

If Nikki Haley and Aziz Ansari can grow up in South Carolina and not whine incessantly about feeling alienated, that's a good sign for future Indian success in America.

Anonymous said...

"1 million english speaking chinese soldiers will never voluntarily ship off to china to blast the guts out of other chinese men with .223 remington and .308 winchester rounds."

English speaking Chinese won't voluntarily sign up for US military duty, period. They make of 5% of the population but less than 1% of recruits. It's even worse than the numbers tell because a way larger fraction are eligible for military service than almost any other ethnic group, mainly because they tend to be smarter and slimmer.

yogi said...

If Nikki Haley and Aziz Ansari can grow up in South Carolina and not whine incessantly about feeling alienated, that's a good sign for future Indian success in America.

Compare them to Time Magazine's 2009 Man of the Year, who also grew up in SC.

"The Bernankes were outsiders, an observant Jewish family in a tight-knit Christian community where social life revolved around church, running one of the few businesses that would extend credit to blacks. Dillon's schools were segregated until Bernanke's senior year, inspiring him to write a Remember the Titans–style novel about an integrated football team when he was a teenager. Once, his house was egged after he ate dinner with a black friend named Kenneth Manning at the local Shoney's."

Anonymous said...

Mr. Sailer's genius really goes under appreciated. You are probably the only American intellectual who has written about how Chinese and Indian influence will play out in American politics.

Just to add some more details to your argument, but the Indians are winning the media war against China primarily because of language and cultural factors. A simple google search will throw up dozens of English language Indian pundits pontificating this way or that way about either China or the U.S. It is much more difficult for Americans to be exposed to Chinese viewpoints, not only because of Communist party control but even more due to language. How many Koreans or Japanese talking heads do you find writing self-serving articles about their countries in English? The number of Indian opinions in the English language and even Western press are on the other hand legion.

The effect is similar to how Marxists were able to dominate cultural and intellectual discourse for the past half century. It is Gramscian hegemony. Indians have seized the initiative and control the entire thought paradigm that Americans have of Sino-Indian relations. Reading about Sino-Indian relations in the English language media is like listening to an angry ex-wife describe her relationship with her estranged husband. Just as how many people have been taught to assume diversity is double plus good, so too have many formed intellectual preconceptions and traps regarding India and China.

You can see the phenomenon at work at the micro level over at Free Republic. There is a group of Indian members who consistently post articles about Indian defense/strategic topics as well as India's relations with China. Though they merely are indulging in the greatest of Indian vanities, that is seeking affirmation from the West, and otherwise none too subtle national cheerleading and boasting. What they are also subconsciously doing is again controlling the tone and tenor of American understanding of Sino-Indian relations.

worf said...

"Worf, for the last 50 years China has supported Indian maoists and Indian separatists in the North-east and of course Pakistan"

Thats nothing compared to what they can do if they stop being so cautious.

"India will not balkanise, because in each state, the 5% brahmins are a high IQ cognitive elite, who are related much more closely to other brahmins in other Indian states, than to a non-brahmin neighbor in the next street"

Sigh, I have a different take on this issue altogether. If you are correct in that all the Brahmins through India are actually genetically related instead of simply elite social positions within the religion-induced social structure, than they must all be a subset of the central-asian or so-called 'aryan' influx into India. If this is true the average North Indian, controlling for Muslim or Middle-eastern incursions should have a higher IQ than the average South Indian. Yet the opposite is true. I think the genetic favouring of IQ increases, mostly along the North-South axis. The only reason the Brahmins have higher IQs and better accomplishments under their belts so far is because they have the advantages of being at the top of the social hierarchy for so long, they have better health, better opportunities etc, basically non-genetic biological and social forces that lead to their current IQ advantage. If you look at all the hard-science/math/tech/nobel winning Brahmins, they're all quite dark, not the typical Brahmin you find in the north. The Brahmin is fundamentally more a social construct than it is a biological rigid identity, especially as the caste system is operationally eradicated. We need serious genome studies with considerable sample sizes, of the Indian population to validate any theory. In fact I would argue illicit intra-caste mating has been going on, albeit not as commonly, for quite some time now, humans are intrinsically horny =P

"Secessionist movements are strong whereever the brahmin is weak"

Like Pearl Harbour, or 9/11, all we need is one or more dramatic events to trigger movements that go well beyond the original event ;)

worf said...

"English speaking Chinese won't voluntarily sign up for US military duty, period. They make of 5% of the population but less than 1% of recruits. It's even worse than the numbers tell because a way larger fraction are eligible for military service than almost any other ethnic group, mainly because they tend to be smarter and slimmer."

In the Canadian reserves there are quite a lot of young Chinese men. I think given a few more generations the numbers in the US will change as well.

worf said...

"The majority comment seems so absurd. I think you've been dreaming of white girls for too long."

Yuck snow bunny syndrome is usually indicative of a serious lack of self respect. Especially given the overwhelming majority of 'white' (read euro) chicks aren't that attractive. If anything its the Southern European ones with some Middle Eastern or Mestizo ancestry that are on average way more prettier.

worf said...

"And white people, unlike the Asians and Indians, are pioneers by instinct. They have the outstanding levels of cooperation needed to survive hostile environments like outer space -- which is why they make such damn fine soldiers. And they have the essential inventors gene which Asians sorely lack. "

Clearly you have a weak knowledge of human history about the rest of the world prior to the Industrial revolution. You keep thinking that the East and South Asians lack pioneer and inventor genes while the Western world continues its unstoppable degeneration. It's sure going to hurt when the real world suddenly pops your bubble, sorta like when the Japanese owned the Russians at sea. Given the trends the first people to set foot on Mars will speak Mandarin.

Anonymous said...

Worf, until 1979, when Deng took over, China had a very active program of supporting Indian terrorists , so been there, done that and Pakistan has always been there funded by China

The Y-DNA of South Indian brahmins is 28% R1A and 17% L1
whereas the Y-DNA of North Indian brahmins is 45% R1A and 3% L1, Thats the difference

The Y DNA of backward castes is H ( Gypsies have H ) and both North Indian and south Indian brahmins have it at about 5%

In the recent years , brahmins from various linguistic states have intermarried to a growing extent, whereas marriage to a non-brahmin of the next street is very rare
I have brahmin relatives from several linguistic states but no non-brahmin relative even from the next street


In all states, a large plurality of brahmins support BJP and affiliate organisations, which are to a large extant run by local brahmins

Brahmins are middle class but dominate news media

The linguistic states allow the local non-brahmin elites to indulge in corruption and let off steam,

The real fault line and ticking time bomb is the growth in the over-fertile Indian muslim population, and even that is not predicted to exceed 18% by 2100AD
and in no state except Kashmir will they be a majority even by then

If you look at the break up of Yugoslavia, it actually broke along religious faultlines and this already happened to India in 1947 when Pakistan was created

There have been thousands of riots between Hindus and muslims speaking the same language and just a few dozen between Hindus speaking another language

Anonymous said...

@as, Even in the 5th generation in Canada, the Indian outmarriage rate is 13% and in the 3rd generation in UK, Indian outmarriage rate is 7% only

Templar said...

Extinction-level fertility rates among most of the high-IQ tribes of the world [Han, Japanese, Korean, European, Blue State American, Leftist Jew, probably the Brahmin...

Hilarious. You should do stand-up.

Anonymous said...

"As for the Indians, the only ethnic group I know that finds their women sort of attractive are the Italians, so Indians don't really have the ability to absorb the talented Anglo classes."

As a general statement this is true. Men don't generally find Indian (South Asian) women attractive. But Indian women are diverse so they should not be grouped together. Lighter Indian women who could pass for Colombian can look very good.

Anonymous said...

@Glossy, in UK where mid level castes migrated to
Hindus and Sikhs are at white levels whereas Pakistani and Bangladeshi muslims are at black levels

Islam is a drag on IQ

Indians intermarry at the lowest rates of all immigrant groups in Canada, due to religion and diet and caste

Anonymous said...

@Corvinus, Hindus who convert to christianity prefer Catholicism due to huge similarities

*Angels / Demigods
*Casting out spirits
*Mother goddess
*Feast days
*Saints
*Idols
*Chanting
*Monasteries

Code Monkey said...

There is no contest. Chinese are winning, hands down. Check out the IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad) results. The Chinese are dominating. NOt just the national teams from China/Taiwan/HK/Singapore. Check out the national teams from US/UK/CANADA/AUS and NZ..... All Chinese kids....

China won the championship 15 times in the past 20 years.

http://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=CHN

India's top finish is number 7
http://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=IND


The Chinese dominate other IQ contests in physics/chemistry/informatics Olympiads too. .

Anonymous said...

Fertility in India

Upper caste = 2.2
Lower caste = 2.7
Untouchable / Muslim = 3.1

adsfasfadf said...

I would bet on Indians as individuals and Chinese as a group.

jack strocchi said...

Steve Sailer said:

It won't solely be a matter of material interest. Much of it will depend upon which Asian superpower best figures out which American Jewish buttons to push to get Jews to feel that healing the world depends upon the U.S. siding with either India or China.

In this, I would bet on the Indians.


Thats a good bet.

Hitchens is part-Jewish, the part that loves to be a big-mouthed conceited intellectual. (I like Jews but its a hard-to-ignore feature.)

And he loves Indians. Who are after all more Anglo-philic than the English.

So I would predict that Anglophile Jews will probably fall in love with India. Indian's charming accents and delightful sentence construction gives them a big head start.

The Wobbly Guy said...

I think Taiwanese and Singaporeans would fight China, if they had the faintest notion that they'd escape revenge and it served their state interests. I think Mexican-Americans would fight Mexico too, in a Mexican dominated US.

Taiwan would certainly be willing to fight China... parts of it anyway. Their internal politics is a mess.

As for Singapore, there's still a very strong tradition of chinese chauvinism. A huge proportion of Singaporean chinese, perhaps even a majority, would NOT raise arms against China.

Also consider the huge influx of former PRC citizens into Singapore, giving rise to many complaints from the born-and-bred Singaporeans - a remarkable mirror of the immigration issue in the US.

Anonymous said...

India has its hands full with Pakistan and its own enormous (and rapidly growing) Muslim minority. Combined with poverty and rampant corruption, it's hardly a recipe for global success. Who knows -- a brief nuclear exchange or intercommunal bloodletting that would make Rwanda look peaceable is hardly outside the realm of possibility in the next decade or two.

China has loaned so much money to the US, its hands are tied. If you owe someone $100,000, they own you; if you owe someone a trillion, you own them.

This is purely anecdotal but I have seen a growing trend of Jewish/East Asian couples. Much more so than Jewish/Indian.

Rahul Marathe said...

worf said...
‘If you look at all the hard-science/math/tech/nobel winning Brahmins, they're all quite dark, not the typical Brahmin you find in the north. The Brahmin is fundamentally more a social construct than it is a biological rigid identity, especially as the caste system is operationally eradicated.’
Brahmins are not a social construct but they have some genetic basis as a caste. No doubt that there has been mixing between the castes in the paste, Brahmins still are different. In India you have something called the gotra or descent and this fact is very important during marriage. Brahmins have only 4 gotras and keep every thing within these gotras. South Indian Brahmins look dark but are much fairer than the typical black skinned South Indian. They are a much smaller minority in their society than the North Indian Brahmins and have thus face higher evolutionary pressures. North Indian Brahmins are equally smart but they do not venture much into American universities because they are busy RUNNING INDIA.
I hate it when idiots with half knowledge about India open their mouths.

Rahul Marathe said...

"The real fault line and ticking time bomb is the growth in the over-fertile Indian muslim population, and even that is not predicted to exceed 18% by 2100AD
and in no state except Kashmir will they be a majority even by then"

I have friends who work in marketing and have travelled through every corner of India. According to them, muslims are 20 -25% of the Indian population even now. 20% minimum.
The Indian government keeps this fact hidden for two reasons.
To keep the hindu masses calm and to avoid a fertility war which would be a disaster for an overpopulated India and to not let muslims realise their relative power in numbers.

Anonymous said...

Anyway Worf, as to relatedness (which proves or disproves nothing to do with IQ):

Check out -

http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2009/09/560k-snp-study-reveals-dual-rigin-of.html

"Modern Indians are derived from two ancestral populations. The first one, termed Ancestral North Indians (ANI) were Caucasoids, the other, Ancestral South Indians (ASI) were distinct from both Caucasoids and Mongoloids in a Eurasian context. Upper castes are higher in ANI ancestry than middle and lower castes. ANI percentages of ancestry are correlated with Western Eurasian Y chromosomes (P=0.04) and mtDNA (P=0.08)."

http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090923/full/news.2009.935.html

http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2009/09/caste-in-india.php

"All Indians are pretty similar," says Chris Tyler-Smith, a genome researcher at the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute near Cambridge, UK, who was not involved in the study. "The population subdivision has not had a dominating effect."

but

"The researchers also found that Indian populations were much more highly subdivided than European populations. But whereas European ancestry is mostly carved up by geography, Indian segregation was driven largely by caste. "There are populations that have lived in the same town and same village for thousands of years without exchanging genes," says Reich."

Also -

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2008/12/south-indian-phylogeography/

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2009/09/the-politics-of-genetic-history-in-india/comment-page-1/

http://dienekes.blogspot.com/search/label/Caste

Anonymous said...

If you are correct in that all the Brahmins through India are actually genetically related instead of simply elite social positions within the religion-induced social structure, than they must all be a subset of the central-asian or so-called 'aryan' influx into India. If this is true the average North Indian, controlling for Muslim or Middle-eastern incursions should have a higher IQ than the average South Indian. Yet the opposite is true. I think the genetic favouring of IQ increases, mostly along the North-South axis.

Y'know I think there's probably a rising IQ cline away from South Asian tribal indigenous ancestry more strongly than away from Central Asia. There might be local exceptions to the trend though. Perhaps there's a hybrid vigor sweet spot (although my theory would be that Southern Brahmins were more differentiated from the autocthones they ruled than the Southern Brahmins and maintained a greater degree of separation, allowing greater selection for IQ, assuming IQ structure exists).

worf said...

"North Indian Brahmins are equally smart but they do not venture much into American universities because they are busy RUNNING INDIA.
I hate it when idiots with half knowledge about India open their mouths."

lol so they were busy running India during the time of British rule when Ramanujan or the likes or CV Raman succeeded? I didn't know that Sonia Gandhia or even Manmohan Singh were Hindu Brahmins. Go figure?

worf said...

"Modern Indians are derived from two ancestral populations. The first one, termed Ancestral North Indians (ANI) were Caucasoids, the other, Ancestral South Indians (ASI) were distinct from both Caucasoids and Mongoloids in a Eurasian context. Upper castes are higher in ANI ancestry than middle and lower castes. ANI percentages of ancestry are correlated with Western Eurasian Y chromosomes (P=0.04) and mtDNA (P=0.08)."

I think the ANI within India itself is from two waves, one consisting of an earlier wave of farmers coming in from Iran or further out, and a second wave afterwards. I'm thinking the ANI present in the south Indian population is of the earlier wave, while the ANI in the north is the latter wave.

PS the nature article link isn't complete?

PPS Just curious, what are the sample sizes of these studies?

Anonymous said...

Ah.

http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090923/full/news.2009.935.html

The Reich study has a sample size of 132 individuals. I don't know about the rest. That's the most meaty study as far as I can tell. I remember there was some good analysis of it on GNXP.com if you want to look into it further.

I'm not really sure about how many waves there were or whether there was continual population flow (unidirectional/bidirectional) or what. The simplest answer is a obviously a one wave model, and then you have to falsify that (through intentional testing or just accumulating more data) before moving on to more elaborate models. Is there an archaeological reason for 2 waves?

Anonymous said...

China has pulled ahead and the gap is widening.

In 1991, the GDP per capita (nominal):

India: $308
China: $327

1991 is the usually given date of liberalization of the Indian economy, although, liberalizing steps were taken starting in the mid-80s.

In 2009, the IMF says:

India:$1031
China: $3678

In your GDP comparisons, you use PPP instead of nominal which isn't a useful value for counting aggregate national GDP.

Anonymous said...

There is no contest. Chinese are winning, hands down. Check out the IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad) results. The Chinese are dominating. NOt just the national teams from China/Taiwan/HK/Singapore. Check out the national teams from US/UK/CANADA/AUS and NZ..... All Chinese kids....

China won the championship 15 times in the past 20 years.

http://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=CHN

India's top finish is number 7
http://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=IND


The Chinese dominate other IQ contests in physics/chemistry/informatics Olympiads too. .


Yes, but Indians dominate spelling bees. I suspect that's a sign of greater verbal IQ, which will likely translate to greater political/social dominance, which is what's relevant here.

Anonymous said...

You can see the phenomenon at work at the micro level over at Free Republic. There is a group of Indian members who consistently post articles about Indian defense/strategic topics as well as India's relations with China. Though they merely are indulging in the greatest of Indian vanities, that is seeking affirmation from the West, and otherwise none too subtle national cheerleading and boasting. What they are also subconsciously doing is again controlling the tone and tenor of American understanding of Sino-Indian relations.

I've noticed this too. The whole "India is a democracy" thing is hyped as well to contrast with authoritarian China. The average American's political sophistication especially when it comes to foreign affairs is so crude that this kind of thing works remarkably well. The average American doesn't want to think too hard but just wants to know who is "good" and who is "evil." So democratic India and authoritarian China get neatly sorted into these two categories.

Anonymous said...

Upper caste = 2.2
Lower caste = 2.7
Untouchable / Muslim = 3.1


Do you have a source for these numbers?

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Templar: Hilarious. You should do stand-up.

Sorry - I don't get the joke.

[Maybe you could explain it to me?]

Anonymous said...

"Given the trends the first people to set foot on Mars will speak Mandarin."

China will cut too many corners in the engineering, but they might be the first nation to put dead astronauts on Mars. How do you say "Ahhh, we're going to crash!" in Mandarin.

Anonymous said...

"Indians dominate spelling bees. I suspect that's a sign of greater verbal IQ,"


Does a spelling bee reflect verbal IQ or simply memorization? Aren't brahmins supposed to be really good at memorizing stuff?

Anonymous said...

@Maratha, I have worked as a demographer with BJP organisations

The official numbers are correct

Muslims are heavily urbanised in towns and in UP are 33% of town, whereas 18% overall

neil craig said...

The nice thing is that neither country is driven by aggressive religions. In trade rather than war, good guys unsually finish first.

Small Town Huckster said...

The Chinese dominate other IQ contests in physics/chemistry/informatics Olympiads too. .

Yes, but Indians dominate spelling bees. I suspect that's a sign of greater verbal IQ, which will likely translate to greater political/social dominance, which is what's relevant here.


Yes, I've met a lot more verbally gifted Indians than NE Asians. On the other hand, I've hardly ever met a NE Asian that oversold their STEM abilities compared to many Indians who were deceptive empty suits. Many were riding a wildly exaggerated stereotype held by Western MBA type who lack the mental acuity needed to do due diligence on high-IQ human talent.

Indians will do better in our lawyer-infested Western society. But Western pathological emphasis on hucksterism and hyper-legalism is a key reason such talents are grossly rewarded here and why the West is rapidly declining relative to China.

As long as China continues to resist Western pressures to modernize in the worst sense of excessive Western legalism, their unquestioned STEM dominance will be a huge core asset driving their economic, political and eventually military growth.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, but Indians dominate spelling bees. I suspect that's a sign of greater verbal IQ, which will likely translate to greater political/social dominance, which is what's relevant here"

Indian's domination in spelling bees just shows how far Indian parents would push their children to gain fame.

worf said...

"I'm not really sure about how many waves there were or whether there was continual population flow (unidirectional/bidirectional) or what."

Unidirectional is more reasonable in the near past. (5-10K years)

"Is there an archaeological reason for 2 waves?"

My understanding of the history was that the Indus Valley Civ was a byproduct of west Asian farmers moving in and mixing with the populace that migrated straight out of Africa. These farmers would be the first component of ANI into the subcontinent. Of course many hate this notion since they want the IVC to be purely 'indigenous'.

The second wave would be made of an influx of nomadic tribes, and probably contributed to much of modern north Indian ancestry.

Anonymous said...

"There is no contest. Chinese are winning, hands down. Check out the IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad) results. The Chinese are dominating. NOt just the national teams from China/Taiwan/HK/Singapore. Check out the national teams from US/UK/CANADA/AUS and NZ..... All Chinese kids...."

Yes, but US kids aren't fanatically coached the way the Chinese kids are. If you want to do this experiment carefully, you teach kids from both countries using the same coaches and resources, then compare. In effect, you get the most honest comparison looking at white (proxy for American) vs Chinese attending US high schools who take the AP calculus exam. More Chinese kids take it, but their overall performance is not hugely better.

A Chinese math professor in one of the top US math departments once told me that competitive problem solving is more an exercise in memory than in creativity. He often found himself very disappointed by Math Olympiad gold medalists from China when he set them to work on original research. The White American students he believed were more likely to think in unorthodox ways leading to novel reasoning essential to creating new math knowledge. And usually the best Chinese researchers had Western undergraduate and graduate degrees.

I suppose Indians are a similar case.

My $0.02, for what it's worth.

Rahul said...

wort said
"lol so they were busy running India during the time of British rule when Ramanujan or the likes or CV Raman succeeded? I didn't know that Sonia Gandhia or even Manmohan Singh were Hindu Brahmins. Go figure? "

Under the British Raj, Indians especially Brahmins held positions of power within the British Indian government. The Brits were only in the senior positions but most of the mid level positions in the Raj government were run by Indians. Mostly Brahmins and Kayasthas and mostly from Bengal. Why get expensive Englishmen and other Brits to run the Raj when you have such cheap talent around (unlike Africa). And even when the Brits did not like caste preferences and tried to promote the lower castes, they could not help it because it were the upper castes with the smarts to do their job.
Anybody who has gone to India will realise how lighter skinned the educated upper and middle classes tend to be compared to the darker lower castes. Because the middle classes are predominantly upper caste too. There are lots of poor upper caste people and rich lower caste people but class does co-relate with caste up to a good extent.
This phenomenon of lighter skinned elites ruling over darker skinned masses is very common in the brown world, something which makes African Americans mad.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, but US kids aren't fanatically coached the way the Chinese kids are. If you want to do this experiment carefully, you teach kids from both countries using the same coaches and resources, then compare. In effect, you get the most honest comparison looking at white (proxy for American) vs Chinese attending US high schools who take the AP calculus exam. More Chinese kids take it, but their overall performance is not hugely better."

Check the ethnicity of the students who represent US/Canada/Australia, almost half of them are Chinese, i don't think they got the "intensive training" you claim they had.

Anonymous said...

What is more important that how could White people who ruled nearly 90% of the world in 1900, an amount of power unmatched in human history gave it all away in less than 200 years. That is something the Chinese scholars of the future should research and hope to prevent.

One more important point is that German Americans who make up the largest portion of the White middle class are actually the engine of the American economy, running its manufacturing, paying the taxes for the empire and also contributing to wars as soldiers. Remove them and the U.S.A would be seriously dented. Strangely the Germans are also the engine of the European Union.

Code Monkey said...

"Yes, but US kids aren't fanatically coached the way the Chinese kids are. If you want to do this experiment carefully, you teach kids from both countries using the same coaches and resources, then compare."


Fair enough, here is the roster for this year's US team

http://www.imo-official.org/year_reg_team.aspx?year=2010&code=USA

the Canadian team
http://www.imo-official.org/year_reg_team.aspx?year=2010&code=CAN

and the Australian team

http://www.imo-official.org/year_reg_team.aspx?year=2010&code=AUS


Chinese domination, no Indian kids.

worf said...

"Mostly Brahmins and Kayasthas and mostly from Bengal. Why get expensive Englishmen and other Brits to run the Raj when you have such cheap talent around (unlike Africa). And even when the Brits did not like caste preferences and tried to promote the lower castes, they could not help it because it were the upper castes with the smarts to do their job.
Anybody who has gone to India will realise how lighter skinned the educated upper and middle classes tend to be compared to the darker lower castes. Because the middle classes are predominantly upper caste too."

That still doesn't deal properly with my question. How come most of the high calibre scientists of India are all South Indian brahmins instead of north Indian brahmins? You are saying the north Indians brahmins were supposedly more employed by the civil service? Even India's DRDO, its nuclear program and the like are filled with South Indians relative to the north. Even Abdul Kalam is a muslim Tamil.

"This phenomenon of lighter skinned elites ruling over darker skinned masses is very common in the brown world"

So the south Indian empires were full of light skinned elites? You do realize, what little historical naval tradition India has had prior to European domination was again out of the South. Much of the external imperial presence by the Indians was also based out of the South. Look at the hindu temples that are found throughout many parts of southeast Asia (ie Bali).

My beef with India is that it is run by less intelligent, less cultured (excp: Gujarat & Punjab) north Indians, and sadly most of the south Indians just let this go on. Much of the central Indian government's investments in industrial infrastructure are all in the north. The south is getting seriously politically and economically cheated by the centre. What worries me more is the large gap in fertility between the South and the North.

I think if India is partitioned further into a few pieces or even better yet into the current intra-state boundaries, the peoples of the South will be better capable of development. Unfortunately the south is passive as it is. What is needed is dramatic events a la Pearl Harbour/911 to correct this situation.

worf said...

"Under the British Raj, Indians especially Brahmins held positions of power within the British Indian government. The Brits were only in the senior positions but most of the mid level positions in the Raj government were run by Indians. Mostly Brahmins and Kayasthas and mostly from Bengal. Why get expensive Englishmen and other Brits to run the Raj when you have such cheap talent around (unlike Africa). And even when the Brits did not like caste preferences and tried to promote the lower castes, they could not help it because it were the upper castes with the smarts to do their job.
Anybody who has gone to India will realise how lighter skinned the educated upper and middle classes tend to be compared to the darker lower castes. Because the middle classes are predominantly upper caste too. There are lots of poor upper caste people and rich lower caste people but class does co-relate with caste up to a good extent."

That still doesn't deal properly with my question. How come most of the high calibre scientists of India are all South Indian brahmins instead of north Indian brahmins? You are saying the north Indians brahmins were supposedly more employed by the civil service? Even India's DRDO, its nuclear program and the like are filled with South Indians relative to the north. Even Abdul Kalam is a muslim Tamil.

"This phenomenon of lighter skinned elites ruling over darker skinned masses is very common in the brown world"

So the south Indian empires were full of light skinned elites? You do realize, what little historical naval tradition India has had prior to European domination was again out of the South. Much of the external imperial presence by the Indians was also based out of the South. Look at the hindu temples that are found throughout many parts of southeast Asia (ie Bali).

My beef with India is that it is run by less intelligent, less cultured (excp: Gujarat & Punjab) north Indians, and sadly most of the south Indians just let this go on. Much of the central Indian government's investments in industrial infrastructure are all in the north. The south is getting seriously politically and economically cheated by the centre. What worries me more is the large gap in fertility between the South and the North.

I think if India is partitioned further into a few pieces or even better yet into the current intra-state boundaries, the peoples of the South will be better capable of development. Unfortunately the south is passive as it is. What is needed is dramatic events a la Pearl Harbour/911 to correct this situation.

Anonymous said...

The Indian diaspora outside the US has very few brahmins, while about 20% of the US Indian diaspora is brahmin

Several brahmins have represented the US in the math olympiad ( beyond the IQ of other Indians )

( I can decode caste from the names )

2007 US team - Arnav Tripathi
2008 US team - Shaunak Kishore
2008 US team - Krishanu Shankar

In the 2009 MIT math integration bee, 12 finalists
of which 3 brahmins

In the 2010 Math Counts runner up was also a brahmin

Anonymous said...

@Anon - As for the Indians, the only ethnic group I know that finds their women sort of attractive are the Italians, so Indians don't really have the ability to absorb the talented Anglo classes.
--

In the Indian caste system, marrying a muslim or a christian is grounds for outcasting and having a daughter do so, reduces the marriage prospects of the extended family, and women outmarriage is bitterly opposed

Anonymous said...

@Anon- Indians also dominate geographic bee

Memory is linked to g with the reverse digit span test

Anonymous said...

@worf

I am a south Indian brahmin, and hope to clarify your posts

Just like the cohanim have a modal Y haplogroup, Brahmins have a Y modal haplogroup R1A
R1A is shared with east europeans
From Wiki, R1A is dated to 15000 years in India and 11000 years in Lithuania and 9000 years ago in Poland
East Europeans are 50% R1A and west Europeans are 10% R1A

R1A varies among brahmin groups, but always forms a significant component
Kashmiri Brahmins - 20%
South Indian Brahmins - 28%
North Indian Brahmins - 45%
Bengali Brahmins - 72%
R1A is associated with Dairy Farming and Adult Lactase Tolerance

The key difference is South Indian Brahmins have L1 at 17%
L1 is a south Indian modal marker

Physically South Indian brahmins are a shade darker on Average than North Indian brahmins but visibly fairer than regular south Indian autochthones

The caste based action of brahmins involves memorisation and this improves reverse digit span and hence g

The muslim invasions did not reach South India, whereas in North India, there was widespread devastation, the muslim kings targeted North Indian brahmins for death or
conversion to islam and the community leaders, the higher IQ brahmins were massacred
Many of the survivors had to take up other jobs not involving g, and this led to a truncation of high end IQ among north Indian brahmins as compared to south Indian brahmins
In addition, south Indian brahmins faced 70% anti-quota for 4 generations
and this led to pruning of the lower IQ southern brahmins

So in the 1974 Indian nuke test, 8 out of 12 scientists were south Indian brahmins

That being said, virtually all brahmins share a common sanskritic culture

In addition, to avoid non-brahmins passing as brahmins, over the millenia, every brahmin male is taught a secret paragraph in Sanskrit and a stranger approaching a brahmin community will be asked to repeat this sanskrit paragraph, so yes there is strong blood, cultural affinity between all brahmins

Anonymous said...

@worf - Regarding splitting up India

If you read Samuel Huntington, the main fault line is religion

*In every linguistic group, about 15% reside outside the linguistic state and any state trying for secession will lead to reprisal ethnic cleansing on a very large scale

*The southern states have several river water disputes and need Central Govt / Supreme court to arbitrate and if independent one state could cut off water to its downstream neighboring state

*In each state, the dominant local kulak caste has a tendency to try to over-dominate and oppress other castes and having a central govt puts limits to this incipient tyranny. In Punjab the Kulak Jat Sikhs tried to secede with Khalistan and the Indian govt armed the Untouchable Sikhs, ( who did not want to live under the Kulak Jat Sikhs ) to shoot down the Khalistani Jat Sikhs

*In Tamil Nadu in South India, the british sponsored a separatist movement which turned anti-brahmin since brahmins opposed secessionism
The tamil separatists found that by co-opting the central govt there is more scope for corruption $billions more and have dropped secession

Anonymous said...

"My beef with India is that it is run by less intelligent, less cultured (excp: Gujarat & Punjab) north Indians, and sadly most of the south Indians just let this go on."

No non South-Indian would ever say rubbish like this. North Indians and South Indians both find each other uncultured. Its all a matter of perpective. And South Indian Brahmins (and other upper caste than the Nayars) do tend to be lighter skinned than the average South Indian. Brahmins and other upper caste populations throughout India are lighter skinned and more Caucasian looking than the average Indian around them in which ever part of India they are in. In South India there is a community called the Saraswat Brahmins and many of them are very fair. Indeed my Saraswat Brahmin friend was fair enough to pass as a German but he was from the Southern state of Karnataka. There are loads of dark skinned people in North India and fair skinned people in Southern India. Hema malini is a South Indian Brahmin for example and she could easly pass as a Persian or a Greek.
http://www.indiantvtoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/hema-malini121208.jpg

Ganpat Sathe said...

"In Tamil Nadu in South India, the british sponsored a separatist movement which turned anti-brahmin since brahmins opposed secessionism"

Brits sponsored a separatist movement. Are you crazy? Are you snorting the White powder? I am brahmin but never heard rubbish like this before.

Anonymous said...

"In the Indian caste system, marrying a muslim or a christian is grounds for outcasting and having a daughter do so, reduces the marriage prospects of the extended family, and women outmarriage is bitterly opposed"

Those days are on their way out. Inter caste marriage is increasing and Christians atleast are accepted among Hindus without much fuss. Muslims not really. Indeed I know of one family (Hindu-Rajput) where one of the daughters eloped with a Christian (Roman Catholic) guy and the other with a Muslim (Sunni) guy. They eventually accepted the girl who married a Christian but not so for the othr one.
I have seen a rising number of Indians of both genders marrying foreigners. I personally know five Brahmin girls married to foreigners. Four of them to White guys and one to an East Asian!
Most White guys may not find the typical Indian girl attractive but there a still quite a lareg number that do. And one more thing,
It is nearly impossible that an Indian family will accept a black person in their family so sorry to them.

Anonymous said...

@worf - Indian secession part 2

*India is like EU hopes to become, goods, labor and services can and do flow freely, and this would be impacted if each state became separate

*After 1991, the role of the govt sector is reduced and it depends more on private sector
within each state

*The brahmin intelligentsia realised that the horrible millenium was due to India having many small kingdoms and the muslims and xtian colonialists were able to conquer one small kingdom at a time and this has sunk into Hindu public consciousness

*If South Indians provide brain, North Indians provide brawn and are willing and able to counter riot against muslims

*Punjab and surrounding areas while only 5% of the Indian population provide 30% of Indian army. North Indian Gurkha troops are so good , that UK still hires them

*Unlike Europeans who were willing to kill each other civilians by the millions, we are unwilling to kill thousands of fellow religionists , many of same or similar caste for simply speaking a different language

*Many castes exist in 2 or more linguistic states

*In 300BC, the greek ambassor Megasthenes noted that wars were solely fought between nobility and common civilians were unmolested

*Many tamils are Shaivites, but many Shaivite temples and shrines are in the Himalayas, so one would need a visa to visit temples in another state

*China, Islamic Pakistan and Bangladesh will expand into Indian states if they separate

Anonymous said...

@Ganpat -
The DK-DMK was sponsored by the british and rewarded with title like Raja and Right Honorable ( Bertie Wooster )
The Raja of Chettinad was a british title without an actual kingdom

The DMK opposed Indian independence and was openly secessionist until 1962, it changed its demand to regional autonomy after a new law was passed banning secessionism

Karunanidhi burnt several Indian flags and openly swore loyalty to the british and asked them not to leave
But now at the central govt he stole $30 billion in 3G auction

Anonymous said...

@Anon- Indian fertility

nfhsindia.org

Stands for national family health survey
-1 was done in 1992
-2 in 1999
-3 in 2005

Anonymous said...

@Anon

Among low castes and untouchables, marriage with a christian will be more easily accepted, but even untouchables will not accept a muslim son-in-law

In my caste, they check the prospective new family to see whether anyone has eloped with a muslim or christian

Ganpat Sathe said...

"Ganpat -
The DK-DMK was sponsored by the british and rewarded with title like Raja and Right Honorable ( Bertie Wooster )
The Raja of Chettinad was a british title without an actual kingdom

The DMK opposed Indian independence and was openly secessionist until 1962, it changed its demand to regional autonomy after a new law was passed banning secessionism"

They did that because they though that if the British left they would either get dominated by North Indians or Brahmins and other upper caste people. But after the British left in 1947, the Brits had nothing to do with their separatist movement.

worf said...

"If you read Samuel Huntington, the main fault line is religion"

In some cases that is true, but more than religion, ethnolinguistic nationalism is the force to be reckoned with.

*In every linguistic group, about 15% reside outside the linguistic state and any state trying for secession will lead to reprisal ethnic cleansing on a very large scale

Europe had the same issues, a small price to pay.

*India is like EU hopes to become, goods, labor and services can and do flow freely, and this would be impacted if each state became separate

India is more like Sub-Saharan Africa than it is ever like Europe ;)

*After 1991, the role of the govt sector is reduced and it depends more on private sector
within each state

A strong government is a basic necessity for development. Especially if one seeks to emulate the East Asian development path.

*The brahmin intelligentsia realised that the horrible millenium was due to India having many small kingdoms and the muslims and xtian colonialists were able to conquer one small kingdom at a time and this has sunk into Hindu public consciousness

The horrible millenium was more because of the rigid caste system. A country with a population of 34 million like Canada has a higher nominal GDP than a country of over a billion.

worf said...

*If South Indians provide brain, North Indians provide brawn and are willing and able to counter riot against muslims

See this is another myth I see propagated... sorta like the Jewish media that make it seem like the African-American is intrinsically stronger than the white man.

Historically peoples from eastern (Bengalis), central (Marathis) and southern (Tamils) India have all had martial pasts. You don't need North Indian brawn, you must be one of those feminized Indian males if you think that. The peoples of the south can fend for themselves, and the muslims in the south are nothing like the ones in the north.

*China, Islamic Pakistan and Bangladesh will expand into Indian states if they separate

Bangladesh is another piss poor country. Pakistan will collapse if India was partitioned. The Chinese are already so far ahead India isn't a serious tier one threat like the US.

If you are a young south Indian brahmin I suggest you backpack India, then compare your experiences between the north and the south. I guarantee you that regardless of how light skinned you are relative to the average southie, you will face derision and mockery in the north. One of my Telugu brahmin friends, born raised in the west, has just about had the worst experiences backpacking some of the northern states.

I was under the impression that the caste system was being eradicated in the urban regions of India.

PS I'm not the only 'southie' that thinks like this... just go on steve's 'why are south indians so smart' thread and you will see soo many others. Like I said before all that is needed is some sort of violent trigger to shatter perceptions and get the ball rolling.

Anonymous said...

@smalltown huckster
--

Regarding Indians in STEM, I actually screen by caste and I find it very effective

I screen only for Brahmin and merchant castes, and 90% of the time my prejudiced IQ estimate is correct

BamaGirl said...

"One more important point is that German Americans who make up the largest portion of the White middle class are actually the engine of the American economy, running its manufacturing, paying the taxes for the empire and also contributing to wars as soldiers. Remove them and the U.S.A would be seriously dented. Strangely the Germans are also the engine of the European Union."


Look, Germany is certainly an accomplished nation, but your Germany worshipping has gotten out of hand at this point.. Sure, German-Americans are a fairly large ethnic group and are important. Yes, they are the engine behind the midwest and "rust-belt" states. But claiming that they are the backbone of the entirety of America when America has its strongest ties to British/English culture is pretty ridiculous. You remove any large successful ethnic group and the US will be dented, this fact isn't limited to German-Americans. And German Americans provide more soldiers? Is that why white Southerners (mostly English/Scots-Irish with fair amounts of Irish or French descended groups) are over-represented in the military? Funny considering the south (with the exception of Florida/Texas) has some of the lowest percentages of German Americans relative to population in the country.

Anonymous said...

"*Unlike Europeans who were willing to kill each other civilians by the millions, we are unwilling to kill thousands of fellow religionists , many of same or similar caste for simply speaking a different language"

What crap, in Bengal and many parts of India there were wars between the Vaishnavites (follower of Hindu God Vishnu) and Shaivites (follower of Hindu God Shiva). Vishnu and Shiva are like Zeus and Poseidon in Greek mythology or like Odin and Thor in Norse mythology, they are not enemies as such in mythology but their devotees tend to choose one and dislike the others. In some cases a King was Vaishnavite, he would give money to Vaishnavite priests and build Vishnu temples but if his son were to become a Shaivite he would support the Shiva worshipping priests, destroy Vishnu temples, harass the Vaishnavite population and support Shiva temples.
Here are some pictures of the those deities
Lord Shiva
http://www.hinduyuva.org/tattva-blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/lord-shiva-and-pa.jpg
Lord Vishnu
http://www-acad.sheridanc.on.ca/~gaverche/paths/hinduism/pix/vishnu.jpg

Anonymous said...

“Look, Germany is certainly an accomplished nation, but your Germany worshipping has gotten out of hand at this point..”
Hehe, if I would be German worshiping, I would have filled this entire page with their achievements.
“Sure, German-Americans are a fairly large ethnic group and are important. Yes, they are the engine behind the midwest and "rust-belt" states.”
Fairly large? About 60 million Americans are predominantly of German ancestry, 1 in 5 of all Americans of all races. Check out how light blue the USA is in this map
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Census-2000-Data-Top-US-Ancestries-by-County.svg
“But claiming that they are the backbone of the entirety of America when America has its strongest ties to British/English culture is pretty ridiculous.”
The U.S.A is part of the Anglosphere but the fact is there are still more genetic Germans than those from the British Isles even though genetically they are very close. I am not denying the contribution to the U.S.A of Americans of predominantly English, Scots, Irish and the Welsh ancestry.
“You remove any large successful ethnic group and the US will be dented, this fact isn't limited to German-Americans.”
No doubt, but German-Americans have been the backbone of the great American middle-class. It is this middle class with their economic activity which created the backbone of the American economy how much ever the folks at Wall Street would want to differ. Without this middle class to tax, how would the U.S.A finance its wars or bail out bankers? Germans have some of the highest IQs among Whites and thus some of the highest in the world. A large chunk of all what we use today have been invented by Germans. And I am not even including the other positive qualities such as hard work, perseverance etc…
“And German Americans provide more soldiers?”
Never claimed that, I just said they provide a good chunk of the soldiers. German martial skills have been treasured from the days of the Romans.
And as far as the EU is concerned, this economic crisis have shown which nations have the goods and which do not. After all the claims of how high labour costs making manufacturing in the first world expensive, Germany is the second highest exporter in the world. I am Indian and here in India you can sell any product advertised as ‘German Technology’. That is enough to have people flocking to buy up whatever what is on offer. No other nation except Japan have such a high reputation in technology. ‘British technology’, ‘American technology’, ‘French technology’ do not sell any more in marketing. Even ‘Israeli technology’ or ‘Korean technology’ do not have the same impact. ‘African technology’ in an advert would kill half our entire population by laughter.

Anonymous said...

@Anon, intersectarian Hindu wars became minor or non-existent after the islamic invasion and these days all sects understand that

Again even if your theory is correct, in each linguistic state, there are several hindu sects, and inter-linguistic warfare would mean killing your own sect in the other linguistic state

Hindu religious sects like many castes, span across several linguistic states

English and French and Italian and German catholics and protestants massacred each other civilians of the same sect by the millions

Anonymous said...

@worf, in the 18th century when islam was finally put on the defensive, by the Marathas, the caste system still existed
more strongly than today

My family has been urban for 100 years, we will not marry a non-brahmin from the same state, but in the extended family we have Kerala, Maharashtrian, Telegu and Tamil brahmins

Do go to Shaadi.com
and read the matrimonial columns
from the urban educated middle-upper middle class
90% specify caste openly, remember this is the ultra-modern segment and those who dont specify caste will screen out the wrong caste

Right in Delhi, there are plenty of honor killings for marrying outside caste
And in Tamil Nadu, Backward caste Thevars and Nadars kill each other over inter-caste marriage

Yes, Punjabis are racist to South Indians, but as a brahmin with a sacred thread, I can enter the inner sanctum of any Hindu temple in any part of India, whereas a fair Punjabi non-brahmin cant
And dont get mad, get even
We dont hire dumb North Indians in Hi-tech jobs and I have seen several South Indian doctors marry upwardly mobile Punjabi nurses
The stupid Punjabis killed off so many girls that now many are coming to kerala and marrying black low caste south Indian women

As far as the caste system being eradicated
What is happening is that in urban areas, much of the petty discrimination is going away, but as far as marriage, the rules are now slightly relaxed, you can marry some more subcastes of the same level in your linguistic state and other linguistic state

Slowly a pan-brahmin and even more slowly a pan-upper caste marriage pool is being formed

Upper caste will not marry backward caste or untouchable
Backward caste will not marry untouchable
On rediff matrimonial, I once saw an matrimonial ad by a backward caste christian who openly specified no brahmins and no untouchables

Except for 1% trophy wives, wherein a rich backward caste or untouchable politician marries a greedy brahmin girl

I have posted in Steves 'Why are south Indians so smart'
and explained that most of the smart south Indians like the Nobel winners and Ramanujam are all South Indian brahmins, not generic south Indians

As a South Indian brahmin, I have a low opinion of both north Indian IQ and non-brahmin South Indian IQ ( poor dears they need 70% anti-brahmin quota to survive )

South Indian muslims being more tame is a myth, they are more tame as they are fewer in Number, but in their south Indian pockets just as violent as north Indian muslims

Why would Pakistan and Bangladesh collapse if India was partitioned, they have open aims of annexing several Indian states ( with the aid of Indian muslims )

David said...

There is a fine line between "predicting" how things will happen and making them happen. "Predictions" tend to become goals, i.e. self-fulfilling prophecies. (Yes, it's this way with all forms of testing, too - including IQ testing.) The tendency is only that. The interesting question is how many "predictions" are plans masked?

Anonymous said...

We know the upper caste Indians have IQ's ranging from 105 to 120-125. Thus it is safe to assume that lower caste Indians in India will have IQ's ranging from 95 to 100-103 due to the Flynn Effect, which is relevant to socioeconomics. India has been a very sophisticated and advanced civilization for 10000 or so years, thus it is not hard to believe that the lower class would range in my proposed IQ figures.

India has also been competing with China for the past 1000 years, so obviously they have the ability in the future to do such a thing. Right now chronically malnourished Indian children score 85 on IQ tests, which is not the IQ accounted for the Flynn Effect. We know lower caste Indians everywhere in the UK score in the upper 90's, thus it is obviously true. These lower caste Indians are representative of the lower Caste in India since they were an imported labor force, unfortunately for racist charlatans.

The Flynn Effect raised white scores from the 80's to 100, this is not genetic, but socioeconomically determined yet many (white) racists have a hard time believing the same would happen to poor Indians, which is hypocritical to a large extend. Better nutrition is one factor in raising IQ's,so there is hope for India.