August 28, 2013

NYT: Israel wants fertility quality, not just quantity

As with nature and nurture, it's useful to think about both quantity and quality. Apparently, that's more normal to do in Israel than in America. From the New York Times:
Children of Israel 
By SHMUEL ROSNER 
TEL AVIV — Israel likes children and it wants more of them. It has high fertility rates — the highest, in fact, of all the states in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: almost 3 children per household, compared with an O.E.C.D. average of just over 1.7. It invests a lot of money in making fertility clinics and treatments accessible to its citizens. 
The main reason for this support is obvious: The Jewish people are small in number, and Israel is a small country surrounded by many enemies. 
And yet, under a cut implemented last week, my household will now receive just under $140 a month in state subsidies for my four children, down from $250 a month. 
Why? Because Israel’s concerns about demographics aren’t just about quantity. 
Almost all Jewish Israelis want the country to remain a Jewish homeland, and so it must maintain a Jewish majority. They also want it to be a democracy, both liberal and economically strong. 
And those goals may be threatened by the two Israeli sub-groups who have the most children — ultra-Orthodox Jews, known as Haredis, and Arabs. The birthrate for Jewish women in Israel is almost 3, whereas it is 3.5 for Arabs and 6.5 for Haredis.

It's hard to get TFR estimates for Jewish Israeli women who aren't Ultras. My guess is that they are fairly high by OECD standards, but it would be nice to have a link. Anybody?
Israel’s Bureau of Statistics says that by 2019 a majority of school children will be either ultra-Orthodox or Arab. And these are just the groups whose participation in the work force is low and among whom the poverty rate is high. 

What's the defection rate from the Ultras? I recall an article on a Brooklyn neighborhood, where somebody pointed out that if an ultra-Orthodox young man gets up one morning and trims his facial hair in a more ironic manner, well, he's now a hipster. And this happens not all that infrequently.
High fertility among these groups appears to have created an economic problem that is only exacerbated by state subsidies. Dan Meridor, a former finance minister known for his liberal views, formulated the problem this way back in 2010: “There are whole social classes in the population, especially where not everyone works, with many children born with the state’s encouragement.” ...
When the cuts became effective last week, Finance Minister Yair Lapid said: “It has been proven repeatedly that child allowances do not get people out of poverty. They perpetuate poverty.” If Arabs and Haredis received fewer subsidies, the thinking goes, they might enter the work force or have fewer children (or both), and so they might be less poor. 
This is a reasonable line of thinking. Births among Arabs and Haredis remain high, but they have declined in recent years, possibly because of a previous round of cuts in subsidies. And more Haredis seem to be joining the work force because of growing social and economic pressure.

My hunch is the Israeli government generally views the Ultras as a demographic reserve: it subsidizes healthy men to sit around studying the Torah and procreating to boost the overall Jewish birth rate. But when the government decides they have enough Jews and thus turns off the welfare spigot, how fast can these guys go from tax consumers to tax contributors? (My guess is that the Israeli military has studied this kind of question in detail, but I don't know what answers they came up with.)
There are also political and cultural reasons behind the government’s move. Muslim Arabs and Haredis aren’t dreaming the Zionist dream of a secular Jewish homeland in the land of Israel. And for the Israelis who are, be they secular or Zionist-religious, Arabs make Israel feel less Jewish while Haredis make it feel too Jewish. 
In other words, Israel’s love of children is conditional: It wants more only so long as having more advances its goals. Last week’s cuts in subsidies show that those allowances were always less a measure of social justice (supporting those in need) than a means of social planning (supporting desired demographic trends). 
Deploying subsidies as incentives isn’t inherently bad, of course. And the need for both Haredis and Arabs to join the work force and better integrate into Israeli society is real, even urgent. But there’s something depressing about making them do that this way. 
I can live without that $110 or so I’m losing, but I realize the cuts will really hurt some of the Haredis and Arabs they target. Yet do I worry about that? Well, that’s how the incentive is supposed to work. And however much this disturbs me, I must admit that, like many other Jewish Israelis, I have come to feel alienated from and impatient with Haredis and Arabs. As a result I see less the needs of their children than the burdens they’ve placed on Israel.

There is much that Americans can learn from Israelis.

66 comments:

Anti-Democracy Activist said...

Two reactions:

1) I wonder how this concern with "quality fertility" in Israel affects the accusation that Jews are "Left-wing for America, but right-wing for Israel".

2) The Israelis are fortunate to have the Palestinians around. If it wasn't for a common enemy they could rally against, the "Ultras" and the "seculars" would be at each others' throats - and I mean this literally.

Anonymous said...

The main reason for this support is obvious: The Jewish people are small in number, and Israel is a small country surrounded by many enemies.
wait, why can't they look forward to embracing diversity and becoming minorities like the goy are supposed to?

Anonymous said...

Israel affects the accusation that Jews are "Left-wing for America, but right-wing for Israel". they are pro jewish - not left or right. that means multiculti for the goy and nationalism for israel.

Anonymous said...

Even secular Jewish women in Israel will have three children. By far the highest in the industrialized world. And the Jewish birthrate is rising, not falling, while the Jewish Haredi birth rate is falling somewhat, meaning the secular rate is actually rising sharply. The Arab birth rate is falling very, very rapidly and is now only about 3, not 3.5. A generation ago it was 5 or 6. And the Arabs have a net emigration rate, the Jews a net immigration rate. The Haredi who have so many children? They are the literal cousins of the Ashkenazi Jews here - you can assume their IQ is similar, even if their interests differ somewhat. The Israelis are accomplishing their goals. They are deporting illegals (not making their children citizens) and of course they built a fence. Emulate them and quit whining about US Jews.

sunbeam said...

Anonymous wrote:

" The Haredi who have so many children? They are the literal cousins of the Ashkenazi Jews here - you can assume their IQ is similar, even if their interests differ somewhat."

Yeah but is that true? About the IQ's being similar?

I know not a single Haredi or Ultra-Orthodox person, and if there is any IQ data about them, I haven't seen it.

But to an outside observer they seem to be as dumb as a box of rocks. A whole society of people who look and act like "funny kids."

Hmmmm there's been a bit written lately about birth defects and Mormon inbreeding.

Why should these guys be immune? As I understand things, they are a closed society. You can get out, but you can't get in. And I wouldn't think they started centuries ago with much more breeding stock than the Mormons.

Be interesting to see some genetic analysis of these guys.

C'mon, you want to what a geneticist could come up with as much as I do.

Sheila said...

sunbeam - excellent and important point. I don't have any links at the moment, but I know I've read about higher levels of certain genetic diseases and birth defects among the "Haredi." Of course, I've also seen, elsewhere, highly ethnocentric non-Haredi Jews vehemently defending the inbreeding and claiming there's no legitimate, scientific proof that such inbreeding causes defects. Instead, they argue, it's been proven responsible for their purportedly high intelligence. . . and then I look again at the Haredi and the Afghanis, and I am ever more thankful to be an evil racist homophobe antisemite.

Anonymous said...

"Emulate them and quit whining about US Jews."

The US and Israel both run on the same dictate "Is it good for the Jews?".

If any Euro-American politician said anything even hinting at maintaining a white majority in the US he or she would be obliterated personally and professionally by the same Jewish ruling class we are not supposed to whine about.

Whiskey said...

Israeli secularists are divided and many if not most fully and completely support multi culti including ending zionism and the Jewish character of their state. This White people disease and they have it too. Nearly all their films are pro Palestinian.

Institute of Economic Understanding said...

riches for me, diversity training for ye

IHTG said...

Even secular Jewish women in Israel will have three children.

No. Maybe that was true 20 years ago, but not today.

Israel does not have Affordable Family Formation, something that Steve does not emphasize enough, considering he coined and promoted the term.

JayMan said...

What's happening in Israel is just a super-charged version of what's happening in the United States. Just sub-in "Hispanics" for "Arabs", "White conservatives" for the Orthodox, religious Jews, and "White liberals" for secular Jews.

See more at:

Who’s Having the Babies? | JayMan's Blog

and

100 Blog Posts – A Reflection on HBD Blogging And What Lies Ahead: Fertiliy | JayMan's Blog

Hopefully Americans can learn something from this.

Anonymous said...

some animals are more equal than others and getting more and more equal every day.

Anonymous said...

Why not just eliminate the subsidies for the Arabs?

Null said...

"I wonder how this concern with "quality fertility" in Israel affects the accusation that Jews are "Left-wing for America, but right-wing for Israel"."

It's not the same Jews. Have you ever heard of an ethnic group forming a lobby (a la J street) to nag their relatives to knock off the excess nationalism? American Jews actually believe all this liberal junk; Israelis have no such luxury.

Brett_McS said...

A few hundred years ago it was common that the rich had many children and the poor had few (who survived).

This was the case in Jane Austen's day where marrying well (to a rich man) resulted in ten children, as she commonly remarked.

Of course the inheritance being divided among ten meant that many of the children had to go into trades. The influx of well-educated and intelligent men into the trades was the primary cause of the Industrial Revolution.

We seem to be going in the opposite direction.

Hepp said...

The fact that Israel subsidizes the breeding of Arabs at all is crazy. I thought they were supposed to be some sort of ethnic supremacist-apartheid-racist state or something.

Anonymous said...

It's not the same Jews. Have you ever heard of an ethnic group forming a lobby (a la J street) to nag their relatives to knock off the excess nationalism? American Jews actually believe all this liberal junk; Israelis have no such luxury.

J Street isn't anti-Israeli nationalism. They just don't think it's prudent to be so noisy and aggressive in one's nationalism. Since it can give the game away.

Anonymous said...

Note how Jews support non-diversity in Israel (where they are and want to stay the majority) and embrace diversity in all western countries (where they are a minority) The Jewish "embrace" of diversity in America and elsewhere is just a strategy out of their playbook - "Is it good for the Jews".

Note too how us Goyim are not supposed to note or comment on this.

Anonymous said...

Brett_McS said...

"This was the case in Jane Austen's day when marrying well (to a rich man) resulted in ten children, as she commonly remarked."

Maybe Jane should have taken her own advice. She died childless at age 41.

Anonymous said...

Wrong. Jewish Israeli rates are climbing and are now at 3 per child. Jewish rates went down temporarily due to the presence of Russian Jews. The Russians are now "Israelifying". Arab rates have decreased to three per child and are still dropping. All of the Great grandparents of the current US Jews were Haredi. All Ashkenazi Jews are no more than 4th cousins from another genetically. Gwynneth's Paltrow 's great grandfather was a famous rabbi - people change - it just takes a shave and some clothes. As for the skill set - the Haredi do not smoke pot all day and rob 98 year old men. They learn logic and business and law all day in two ancient languages Biblical Hebrew and Aramaic while they speak Yiddish at home and modern Israeli Hebrew in the street. Try it. When they secularize, they are excellent human material.

Anonymous said...

Haven't finished reading but got as far as this and have to correct it:

"My hunch is the Israeli government generally views the Ultras as a demographic reserve: it subsidizes healthy men to sit around studying the Torah and procreating to boost the overall Jewish birth rate."

Oh my God no.

The Chareidi explosion that's been aided by these subsidies is not something that anyone but the Chareidim themselves would support. Were all Chareidim to follow the lead of the Neturei Karta and not vote (and therefore have government-shaping power in the Knesset) the Chareidim would not have been allowed to get away with their welfarism for a very very very long time now.

Hunsdon said...

Wow, is there anything this special, wonderful people cannot do, when they put their minds to it?

Steve Sailer said...

It's kind of like how the West Bank settlements are some kind of force of nature that just can't be controlled by the Israeli government no matter how hard they try.

Steve Sailer said...

It's like continental drift -- whaddaya going to do?

sunbeam said...

Anonymous wrote:

"As for the skill set - the Haredi do not smoke pot all day and rob 98 year old men. They learn logic and business and law all day in two ancient languages Biblical Hebrew and Aramaic while they speak Yiddish at home and modern Israeli Hebrew in the street."

I'll take your word for it, but why Aramaic? I think a lot of the New Testament was written in Aramaic, which I understand to have been some kind of Greek/Hebrew hybrid. (Those Seleucids from Rome:Total War? Their effect still being felt?)

But Aramaic for Jews? Wouldn't all the texts be in Hebrew? I guess Aramaic was spoken in Israel circa 0 A.D., but why study it now? Seems like the source documents they would be interested in would definitely not be in Aramaic.

Anonymous said...

"What's good for the Jews?"

What else is new? This could easily be the thousandth article I've read which all lead to the same conclusion.

Anonymous said...

Steve, were you addressing my comment about how most Israelis have long opposed such radical chareidi fertility?

The West Bank Settlements ARE controlled by the Israeli government. They support their presence and growth because most Israelis do and in a parliamentary democracy the people really ARE the government (well, more than locally at least).

The wild growth of the Chareidi populace however is supported almost exclusively by the Chareidi sector, heck more (non-Arab/Chareidi) Israeli Jews support a high Israeli Arab birthrate than support a high Chareidi birthrate.

The reason Chareidim have been continuing to get all these goodies since they wore out their welcome a generation ago is because they too ARE the government and have long held the kingpin for any government that wanted to form. Their knesset representatives could go left or right, they didn't care, so long as their people got paid.

To end on a happier note, the West Bank Settlements are, like everything, a mixed back but most of them are so superior as social environments to other sorts of places in the west, certainly including any community I've seen in California, that I strongly recommend and be moved by the example of people who (though imperfect and in posession bad apples) are truly impressive to be amongst.


Anonymous said...

Jews, in general, are a precious, global resource.

Anonymous said...

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/08/28/detroit-teachers-moonlight-as-sugar-babies-to-offset-wage-cuts/

Anonymous said...

Sunbeam, the guy you were quoting doesn't have it entirely correct but pretty close. Aramaic-wise you got it pretty wrong. You also seem to misunderstand the sort of study that Chareidim engage in. I'd guess everyone on this board who hasn't been one of them (are a more moderate verion thereof) would be shocked by how wildly alien their "studying" is and why they do it. Heck, if Steve can cull "antisemitic" material from the slim pickins he goes for I can only imagine what he could do with general Orthodox Jewish views (rather than actual practices which are touchingly nice) and with the texts that they study and - theoretically - consider to be infallible. Bear in mind, these are THOUSANDS of books (in every language but most of them have since been translated into some version of Hebrew for mass study, excepting those that were written in Aramaic or some Judaized version of Aramaic) and these books were written in most countries and in every era since books began and by a people bonded to an archaic legal system who, by and large, lacked hegemony and got whacked at by all kinds of folk.

You could - and many have - write numerous anti-Jewish tomes based on all this.

Again, I personally prefer to judge people based on their actions rather than their claimed beliefs and I prefer to judge communities of people based on the average characteristics they display via their actions rather than on their beliefs. So, in my view, Chareidi Jewry in America (a bit less in Israel) is one of the finest communities I've interacted with but all Chareidim everywhere claim to believe things - many of them out of those semi-Aramaic texts you were dubious about - that would make your jaw drop. The study stuff though is just dumb. Doesn't necessarily make THEM dumb being as the competition among them is to study "better" (too long to explain) but it IS a society that rewards the more intelligent and more studious - even when what they study is actually mainly nonsense (as Razib puts it, similar to studying American law in law school).


DYork said...

What's the defection rate from the Ultras?

Well, here's one example:

Comedian Ari Shaffir tells Marc what it was like to grow up in an Orthodox Jewish household, what led him to part with his faith, how his parents reacted and why he turned to stand-up comedy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7m2QCKbLDs&hd=1

The Prophet said...

Aren't the Israelis wonderful? And I don't mean that ironically or sarcastically.

They can talk about eugenics, the dangers of breeding the wrong sort of people, the demographic problem, the need for walls around their country and soldiers patrolling their borders, the need for desert camps to corral illegal infiltrators ... and they make these things come true!

They are my heroes in so many ways. they are race proud, they are race loyal, they are willing to do and to conquer whatever they have to to protect their tribe, their race, their nation.

I ask you, what could be healthier than that?

Israeli Jews truly are a "light unto the nations" and we should follow their example.

In over 55 years there has never been goy cabinet minister in Israel. There has never been a goy leader of the Israeli central bank. There has never been a goy general in the Israeli army. There has never been a goy president of a Jewish college. There has never been a goy mayor of an Israeli city.

They must be our example.

As Steve's article indicates, they are now working to cut off Haredi and alien [Arab] welfare leeches and scammers.

We must do the same. We can start with Eastern Parkway and Rockland County, with Monsey and Lakewood.

By some enlightened Haredi estimates, there are Haredi cities in America where over 80% (!) of the Haredim are collecting welfare. If the Israeli Jews can stop it so should we.

My friends, don't tear down Israel, follow their example. In short, do what Israeli Jews do. Don't listen to what American Jews say.

Big Bill said...

"Why not just eliminate the subsidies for the Arabs?"

They discussed this at length in the Knesset 10-15 years ago (before the Haredi threat became so great). They were trying to refashion a welfare system that would skip over the Arabs.

Some of the solutions they were considering were eliminating benefits for families in that Arab sweet spot (3-5 kids).

They would have one program that would provide benefits for up to 3 kids and another program that would start providing benefits at 6 kids.

The hope was that the Arabs would be dissuaded from having their 3-5 kids and the Haredi (6-10 kids) would still be supported.

IHTG said...

What's happening in Israel is just a super-charged version of what's happening in the United States. Just sub-in "Hispanics" for "Arabs", "White conservatives" for the Orthodox, religious Jews, and "White liberals" for secular Jews.

Not really, because religious Jews have more children than Arabs. Non-Mormon/non-"fundy" white conservatives in the US do not have such high fertility rates.

Otis the Sweaty said...

I don't have the link but I can give you the fertility level of all of the Israeli Jewish population groups:

secular: 2
secular-traditional: 2.5
religious-traditional: 3
religious-national: 4.2
ultra orthodox: 6.5

Re retention rate of ultra orthodox: extremely high. It is the religious-national (which often gets confused with the ultra orthodox) which loses about a third of it's population to either secularism or ultra orthodoxy.

kaganovitch said...

sunbeam wrote "But Aramaic for Jews? Wouldn't all the texts be in Hebrew? I guess Aramaic was spoken in Israel circa 0 A.D., but why study it now? Seems like the source documents they would be interested in would definitely not be in Aramaic."


The Babylonian talmud (which is the basic text of haredi/halachic judaism is written in aramaic.

RS said...

> It's hard to get TFR estimates for Jewish Israeli women who aren't Ultras.

I don't have a link but it's higher (sometimes above replacement) for non-ultras who are relatively religious and/or nationalist.

> What's the defection rate from the Ultras?

In the US, very low. In the past it was much higher.

RS said...

> Hmmmm there's been a bit written lately about birth defects and Mormon inbreeding.

I believe that may pertain only to fundie LDS who have small communities, and marry at the command of some charismatic leader who doesn't much regard their pedigrees.

> Why should these guys be immune? As I understand things, they are a closed society. You can get out, but you can't get in. And I wouldn't think they started centuries ago with much more breeding stock than the Mormons.

The 'human race' is a closed society too. Being strictly endogamous is not enough to produce inbreeding depression ; you also need a sufficiently small founding stock.

Pretty sure the founding stocks of the Haredi and mainline LDS are nowhere near small enough to produce inbreeding depression.

RS said...

> The Haredi who have so many children? They are the literal cousins of the Ashkenazi Jews here - you can assume their IQ is similar, even if their interests differ somewhat.

That's no safe assumption. They were 'created' from a very small fraction of hyper-religious Ashkenazim. In most pops high-piety people are a little less smart. I can't prove it, but Haredi IQ may well be about 104 or something.

It's not my business anyway ; I don't really care, because they don't create problems for other Whites. Generations from now, they are likely to want some relatively large territory in which to form a separate nation-state in North America. Fine, not a problem for me, so long as it's not something ridiculous like 25% of the continent. All I want is space and power for my people (White Europids) to live and thrive, and revive the (IMHO) world-crowning civilization they once had.

Rohan Swee said...

"And however much this disturbs me, I must admit that, like many other [x], I have come to feel alienated from and impatient with [y and z]. As a result I see less the needs of their children than the burdens they’ve placed on [my country]."

Must be nice to be able to say things like that in public without losing your job.

Anonymous said...

the Haredi do not smoke pot all day and rob 98 year old men.

You've

got

a

point.

Randy Numbagenarata said...

This doesn't seem too impossible, just make each dependent child a deduction (5k? 15k?) against income instead of being a flat subsidy. High income professionals and entrepreneurs who pay a greater marginal percentage get a greater incentive, which is good because we want more children from those people. The poor who don't pay income taxes anyway get nothing.

Anonymous said...

Try to imagine some "white supremacist" being given space in the NYT to air similar views about "keeping America white".

Svigor said...

The main reason for this support is obvious: The Jewish people are small in number, and Israel is a small country surrounded by many enemies.

Nope, that's bullshit. They left out the part where they explain why it's okay for Jews to want to increase their numbers.

After all, China's full of smart, industrious people who would love to shore up Israel's population. Israel has no enemies in China. There are no would-be pizzeria-bombers in China, waiting to immigrate to Israel and blow up Israelis.

Why? Because Israel’s concerns about demographics aren’t just about quantity.

Almost all Jewish Israelis want the country to remain a Jewish homeland, and so it must maintain a Jewish majority. They also want it to be a democracy, both liberal and economically strong.


So, almost all Jewish Israelis are racists. And almost all Jewish Americans are simpatico. So they're racists, too.

“It has been proven repeatedly that child allowances do not get people out of poverty. They perpetuate poverty.”

Someone please tell Israeli Jewry's BFF, American Jewry, that welfare perpetuates poverty.

They are deporting illegals (not making their children citizens) and of course they built a fence. Emulate them and quit whining about US Jews.

If we emulate Israeli Jews, their BFFs the American Jews will try to smash us. Put another way, Israeli Jewry's BFFs are the single biggest barrier to us emulating Israeli Jewry.

"I wonder how this concern with "quality fertility" in Israel affects the accusation that Jews are "Left-wing for America, but right-wing for Israel"."

It's not the same Jews.

Right. It's BFF #1 and BFF #2. One smashes you in the face, the other takes your wallet. One picks your pocket, the other gives him an alibi. Etc.

But it's definitely not a conspiracy. In theory.

American Jews actually believe all this liberal junk; Israelis have no such luxury.

Risible. American Jews are Israeli Jewry's BFF. Israeli Jewry would be down the tubes without American Jewry. The Israeli lobby in America is so powerful, it's simply referred to as "the lobby." AIPAC is probably only outmatched (in terms of raw power) by the AARP, that lobby that every American joins eventually, if they're lucky enough to live that long..

The fact that Israel subsidizes the breeding of Arabs at all is crazy. I thought they were supposed to be some sort of ethnic supremacist-apartheid-racist state or something.

Right. When Jews are talking about America, the very idea of anything but open borders and socialism indicate "white supremacist apartheid racist state." But when they are talking about Israel, they get all nuanced n' sheeit.

It's like continental drift -- whaddaya going to do?

Other stuff that's as inevitable as climate change:

The racial-genetic alteration of Europe from white to brown.
The racial-genetic alteration of America from white to brown.
Multiculturalism in white countries.
Open borders in white countries.

Mark Plus said...

"They learn logic and business and law all day in two ancient languages Biblical Hebrew and Aramaic while they speak Yiddish at home and modern Israeli Hebrew in the street. Try it. When they secularize, they are excellent human material."

That depends on how efficiently they can repurpose their rabbinic cognitive skills towards activities which have market value. Otherwise their "education" looks like a more rigorous version of the loser college degrees held by the stoners who showed up at those Occupy derelict camps in 2011.

Still, Israel's religious obsessives who want to live on welfare and study ancient writings all day while having stable marriages and rearing legitimate children, seem far preferable to the human trash who wind up on America's welfare roles, bear bastard kids and commit crimes.

Anonymous said...

"Emulate them and quit whining about US Jews."

Pointing out the hypocrisy of US Jews is the best way to emulate them.

Anonymous said...

I knew someone who was ex-Hasidic. Like ex-Amish, there aren't that many of them - you are raised in isolation from mainstream society and possess few marketable skills, all your friends and family and potential mates are inside the cult and won't have anything to do with you after you give that beard an ironic trimming, you are brainwashed from birth, etc. So most people end up staying.

Now on the other hand, almost all of the modern Jews that you know, if you go back a few generations, their grandfathers or great grandfathers were bearded Orthodox Jews. And I'm not talking 10 or 20 generations, more like 3 or 4.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said..

"What's good for the Jews?"

What else is new? This could easily be the thousandth article I've read which all lead to the same conclusion.

That's because the truth is always the truth and if you are looking for the truth, your conclusion will usually find it out.

The truth is not hidden from us or deeply buried away somewhere. It simply goes unmentioned or ignored so often. Witness political correctness and the mental gymnastics liberals engage in to avoid saying obvious truths.

Anonymous said...

You know Israel is full when they cannot find any more lost Jews.

Last immigrants from Ethiopia land in Israel, ending a 30-year saga

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.544097

Anonymous said...

"Almost all Jewish Israelis want the country to remain a Jewish homeland, and so it must maintain a Jewish majority."

If only we could say the same thing about England and the English. I'll try it in the Guardian tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

A lot of good points:

1. The Talmud, the ancient Jewish law code, is written in Aramaic. ANY Talmud scholar must master it, along with Hebrew. This Is not a comment on contents, only on the fact the Talmud is written in Aramaic. Commentary is in Hebrew, as is the Bible. No Haredi studies either in translation.

2. Every single Ashkenazi Jew in America came from this background. 120 years ago, almost every Yiddish speaking Jew was what we call now "ultra orthodox."

3. There is no genetic difference between these Jews and their cousins in America, except that there has been far far less intermarriage there. When I say cousins, I mean family cousins.

4. The assumption is that these Jews are smart, capable people - not subnormal violent criminals. They need secular education, not jail.

5. The Jewish birthrate in Israel , bizarrely, is climbing. It is 3 and rising. How they have managed this is something we should think about.

6. US Jews are like every other white liberal group - if you don't think Jews are white, drop white. They do not have children. They will fade away. The Haredi in America will not fade away, but they will have ZERO cultural impact; they are as insular as the Amish. They do not care about multiculturalism or any other left wing fad. Due to their birth rate, and the lack if births among US secular Jews, they will form the majority of Jews here soon enough.

7. Quit complaining about US Jews, who will disappear soon anyway. Concentrate on copying their Israeli cousins. This is not impossible, if you hold Israel up as the explicit example.

Anonymous said...


Still, Israel's religious obsessives who want to live on welfare and study ancient writings all day while having stable marriages and rearing legitimate children, seem far preferable to the human trash who wind up on America's welfare roles, bear bastard kids and commit crimes.



Yeah, it is that "commit crimes" part that really pisses off the taxpayers from the other tribes.

Steve Sailer said...

Otis the Sweaty says:

secular: 2
secular-traditional: 2.5
religious-traditional: 3
religious-national: 4.2
ultra orthodox: 6.5

That sounds plausible, but it would be helpful to have a source.

IHTG said...

There has never been a goy general in the Israeli army

This isn't true.

Anonymous said...

According to David Goldman ("Spengler") a new study by Yaakov Faitelson states that "most of the increase in Jewish births comes from the secular and non-Orthodox religious categories, which average 2.6 children per woman." This alone, even before the orthodox and ultra-orthodox, is pretty remarkable considering the rest of the industrialized world's birth rate. Remember these are educated seculars - and yet they are still having children at well above replacement.

All the smarmy comments about the Jews notwithstanding, they have a knack for survival. When they needed births, they got them. We should try and understand if this is merely luck and circumstance or something else. If something else, we should copy it.

Anonymous said...

"My friends, don't tear down Israel, follow their example. In short, do what Israeli Jews do. Don't listen to what American Jews say."

100% correct.

Anonymous said...

In over 55 years there has never been goy cabinet minister in Israel.
False:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salah_Tarif, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raleb_Majadele

See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majalli_Wahabi,
Acting President of Israel

There has never been a goy leader of the Israeli central bank.
True.

There has never been a goy general in the Israeli army.
False:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imad_Fares, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yosef_Mishlav

There has never been a goy president of a Jewish college.
I don't have the time or inclination to see if this is true, but so what? There's never been a non-Catholic president of Georgetown or Notre Dame either.

There has never been a goy mayor of an Israeli city.
False:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tawfiq_Ziad

One out of five seems a bit low for a prophet.

Anonymous said...

I'll take your word for it, but why Aramaic? I think a lot of the New Testament was written in Aramaic, which I understand to have been some kind of Greek/Hebrew hybrid. (Those Seleucids from Rome:Total War? Their effect still being felt?)

Large parts of the Books of Ezra and Daniel are in Aramaic, as is much of the Talmud.

Aramaic is related to Hebrew, but not Greek. You are correct that it was spoken in territories ruled by the Seleukids, though so you must have learned something from Rome:Total War...

Douglas Knight said...

Here's a 10 year old paper that lists the secular Israeli TFR as 2.0-2.2 (p 7 aka 446). This excludes ultra-orthodox and national-religious, but isn't as fine-grained as Otis's numbers. Also, I think it might include secular Arabs. Also, it says that this population is 70%.

Reducing government support for children has been going on for 10 years. I think it has brought ultra-orthodox down from 7.5 to 6.5.

Perspective said...

I wonder if certain elements in the US also view the American ultra orthodox as a demographic reserve to replenish dwindling numbers in the future? Perhaps if welfare (or some other factor) for this group is manipulated enough there could be even a partial defection?

For Israeli birthrates I think it would also be useful to see a break down on Ashkenazi, Sephardic, Mizrahi and other/mixed (since many Israelis are mixed now) birth rates by religious devotion.
From what I remember reading in "Radical, Religious and Violent" by the mid 1990s the Sephardi Ultra orthodox had a higher fertility rate than even the Ashkenazi ultra orthodox. I'm not sure if this is the case today.

Pochinko said...

Americans initially had the same wisdom, they had to be taught to be stupid.

Engineer Dad said...

"Social Planning Trumps Social Justice"
Hmmm, a nice catchphrase that would like good on a T-shirt or bumper sticker.

Douglas Knight said...

Here is a
graph
(p 58 aka 59) with fine-grained religiosity categories, matching Otis's numbers. It gives breakdown of the population into these categories on p 60 aka 61. The source by Hleihel is in Hebrew.

Here are some other sources, obsolete in light of the above.

A paper with more recent fertility data (p 10 aka 112). It distinguishes between 7% ultra-orthodox and 72% other Jews. It puts the ultra at 7.5 in 1999 and 6.74 in 2007; and the non-ultra dropped from 2.22 to 2.20 (1%).

If national-religious are 7% of the population and have a TFR of 4, this gives secular 2.0, so the numbers are generally compatible.

Some details: this paper includes as ultra-orthodox those who have lapsed, but have lots of ultra relatives (ie, no military). How many of the national-religious it includes I don't know. In any event, there is a discrepancy between the two papers in the total percentage of Jews.

Here is a paper that distinguishes secular, orthodox, and ultra-orthodox, but I don't see it actually list TFR, only TFR for the richest 10% of each demographic.

Steve Sailer said...

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

My friends, don't tear down Israel, follow their example. In short, do what Israeli Jews do.

Easier said than done.

Anonymous said...

"> What's the defection rate from the Ultras? " - over time it should decline as the defectors naturally seem to be leaving the Ultra gene pool. How often do secular jews turn Ultra?