September 16, 2013

Simon-Ehrlich wagers for 2013 to 2023

At Your Lying Eyes, Ziel writes:
Predictions - Anyone Wanna Bet? 
In the spirit of the famous Simon/Ehrlich bet, here are some predictions for 2023. Any takers?

1. Real GDP growth will average less than 2.5% per year over the next decade 
2. The Gap - as measured by NAEP 8th grade math scores among black and white students nationwide - will be greater than 0.9 standard deviations. 
3. California's performance on the 8th grade math NAEP will not improve relative to the U.S. mean (in standard deviation units) over it's 2013 performance. 
4. The price of oil - despite decreased demand - will be no lower than the average price during 2013. 
5. The Social Security revenue estimates of the CBO with regard to the 2013 Comprehensive Immigration Reform act will prove to be too optimistic (as a % of GDP). The CBO estimates of the immigrant population in the U.S. as of 2023 will prove to be too low. 
6. The share of total income earned by the bottom 20% of American families (measured in terms of family income) will be lower than it is today; this will also hold true for wealth. 
7. Neither Libya nor Egypt will have a functioning democracy. 
8. Average global temperature, as measured by the GISS, will not be lower than today. 
9. The per capita GDP of Brazil, measured in $PPP, relative to that of Switzerland in terms of dollar difference, will not be improved.

The last one is a bit of a sucker bet in that "dollar difference" implies absolute difference between Switzerland and Brazil, not a relative percentage difference. For example, say that per capita GDP in Switzerland is $50,000 and in Brazil is $20,000. (I'm exaggerating to make the arithmetic easy.) If Brazil goes up 20 percent to $24,000, while Switzerland goes up 10 percent to $55,000, then Ziel wins.

I'd be worried about losing on California's NAEP scores relative to the rest of the country. I suspect the long term trend is that California will become increasingly Asian while shedding blacks and Hispanics to places with lousier weather. But how soon (if ever) that mechanism will impact NAEP scores is something I'd have to look at recent numbers closely before I'd want to bet on it.

74 comments:

Anonymous said...

Point # 7.

Ditto for every other Arab country in the world too.

ziel said...

Good point on the Brazil/Switzerland item. Brazil will probably grow faster than Switzerland as the latter is a mature economy and Brazil is blesssed with natural resources, but it's still noy going to get close to Switzerland.

It would be interesting to run thru some scenarios regarding Hispanic/Asian immigration that might improve California's performance.

Anonymous said...

Texas will turn Democratic.

But maybe GOP still has a chance by using the 'northern strategy'.

Side with upper middle class whites, middle class, and working class whites against the rich and super rich globalists.

Anonymous said...

The problem is that California has plenty of places with lousy weather. The Central Valley, the Mojave, etc.

Anonymous said...

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-among-world-most-racist-countries-britian-tolerant-survey/1/271586.html

Britain now less 'racist' than India.

Rotfl.

Anonymous said...

GOP stinks.

http://takimag.com/article/lindseys_plan_for_war_on_iran_patrick_buchanan/print#axzz2f268mgIq

War party? More like Whore Party.

Anonymous said...

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/09/16/can-the-gop-learn-from-australias-liberals/

Rightist socialism.

Anonymous said...

"2. The Gap - as measured by NAEP 8th grade math scores among black and white students nationwide - will be greater than 0.9 standard deviations."

as long as the illegitimacy rate among blacks, hispanics, whites, asians remain 73%, 53%, 26%, and 17%, respectively--SAT scores for groups will also remain... Asians on top, Whites second, Latinos/Hispanics third, Blacks 4th.

Anonymous said...

As Ziel points out, there's a current wealth shift from rich mature economies to resource rich countries (both first world nations like Norway and second world resource rich countries like Brazil). Even Africa is getting somewhat richer, although human capital factors will limit how far southern hemisphere countries can narrow the gap

Unfortunately, the West's elites have failed to acknowledge the economic vulnerability of resource poor western nations (Italy, UK, Ireland, Netherlands etc)

It's absurd that countries like Britain are still providing economic aid to countries with far more resources and higher levels of economic growth.

As someone who lives in a Western nation (New Zealand) which doesn't even have an air force anymore , I get a bit pissed off that African countries are buying jet fighters and satellites with western aid money.

Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta said...

Come on Steve, I know there is much to be cynical about.

Don't you have any hope for anything to be good or better in the future.

At the moment I can't think of anything either. All you alternative media cynics have got me thinking the worst of things.

Go ahead Steve, I want to see some optimist bets.

I'll do my best to go first.

On climate:
1. Sea level increase will be minimal ... endangering zero human built infrastructure.

2. Agricultural output per capita of developed OECD countries will increase.


Geopolitics
3. Either a Gorbachev or a Hitler will cause tensions in the middle east to evaporate in a climax as shocking as the end of the cold war in that miraculous year of 1989.
(Make no assumptions about which side makes that surprising move...)

4. The demagogues in US Congress finally get their wish and China floats their currency. But...

5. The rising power of China's economy compels the US if they want to sell the PRC bonds, they better be Yuan denominated.

6. After a collateral backed Chinese bail-out of the US Federal Treasury and a Bail-In of US savers, retirees and IRA holdings, the US government finances are finally on track to being balanced.

7. Thanks to the unprecedented bail-in, the inequality of the distribution of wealth is reduced by more than 3/4 overnight.

OK I granted all my scenarios aren't optimistic for everybody.

Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta said...

Next prediction,

After Senator Cory Booker is elected President in 2020 to replace the third President Bush, the US never elects another European-American to be President.

Do Conquistador Americans count as European Americans?

Anonymous said...

"It's absurd that countries like Britain are still providing economic aid to countries with far more resources and higher levels of economic growth."

They have this idiotic notion that if they give aid they can somehow still control events in said countries. Since Europe has no military power anymore, it's really the closest thing to leverage they have.

In India's case, the UK had to basically beg them to take the aid. More recently, Cameron tried to make British aid dependent of decriminalizing homosexuality. Ghana and Uganda said they would refuse aid, at which time Cameron made a fairly lame excuse and backtracked very quickly.

Pathetic.

Simon in London said...

I'd think there's a very good chance average global temperature will be lower in 2023. I don't know how accurate or honest GISS is. London is much much colder now than 10 years ago, but we keep being told it's actually still getting warmer, so... :/

dearieme said...

12 The distinction between "its" and "it's" will be entirely forgotten.

Eric said...

12 The distinction between "its" and "it's" will be entirely forgotten.

Sadly, I think we've reached the point of no return on that one.

Anonymous said...

As I keep saying about the famed Ehrlich/Simon wager, Paul Ehrlich was on the right track, but he was tripped up by one thing, namely the middle-eastern oil crises that totally f*cked-up the western economies for a generation just knocked everything out of kilter. Basically the entire period from 1973 right up to the time China really started to show its muscle, was a time of economic stagnation and deflation characterized by mass unemployment and destroyed demand for oil (ironically) and virtually every other vital commodity. What we saw right up to the bust-up of 2008 was the pressure of artificially suppressed demand suddenly bursting forth on a worldwide infrastructure that couldn't cope with it.
I fear that the economists and polticians have permanently and irrevocably destroyed the west economically by their shit policies during that period and the only story in town is China.

That said, I feel that a modern Ehrlich/Simon wager should be a bet on EU (or even US) GDP growth rates and Chinese growth rates. I'd like to see someone seriously put money against China - especially those nay-sayes who pontificate non-stop about 'ghost cities' or whatever it is.
As an earlier thread said, it's all about IQ.

Big Bill said...

10. The population percentage of functional illiterates in California, Florida, Arizona and Texas will be larger than it is now.

Steve Sailer said...

Optimistic prediction: In 2023, it will turn out we didn't need the new USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier, much less the USS Gerald R. Ford superaircraft carrier now under construction.

viakorea said...

- The distinction between who and whom will all but disappear in the linguistic sense, while its Sailerian sense will become more entrenched in public life than ever.

- iSteve will still be the blog I check before all others each and every day.

Anonymous said...

Steve,
What are you alluding to? - the fact that the latest generation of Chinese ship-to-ship or surface-to-ship missiles render aircraft carriers, (even the mega nuclear ones), absolutely irrelevant and useless? - Just like the way submarines outmoded the old fashioned big-gun battleships.

a view from without said...

> 3. California's performance on the 8th grade math NAEP will not improve relative to the U.S. mean (in standard deviation units) over it's 2013 performance.

California ~38% hispanic.
US ~18% hispanic.

Even if California doesn't lose a single pct point;
as the rest of US hispanize(?) (esp with amnesty) US avg could/would come down and US/CA diff in std's will decrease.

think of %40 pct hispanic CA in a 25% hispanic US.
------------------------------------------------------
> 7. Neither Libya nor Egypt will have a functioning democracy.

What is the objective criterion for this. Freedom House, AI reports are not valuable to me, to vague for betting anyways.

A functioning democracy is one that had its last two multiparty and/or multicandidate elections without outside (military/paramilitary/foreign) intervention in between. Demanding anything more is just begging the question (No True Scotsman for autistic wikipedians). Of course then we have the question of when do we count an election an actual election and not a semblance. Americans do not count Venezuela or Bolivia as functioning democracies as long as they do not like the result of the elections. What about Azerbaijan, Zimbabwe, or Japan and US. Also Is US democracy as functioning as Australia's where immigration policy changed or UK's where Parliament voted down a War, neither of which IMAGINABLE in US.

Democracy is not a GODDESS. It is not eternal, as ziel implies it comes from the people it is governs. But it is also not omnipotent or absolutely benevolent. Any dysfunction in a society is not a direct and irrefutable evidence of it not having a "functioning democracy".
----------------------------------------
> 8. Average global temperature, as measured by the GISS, will not be lower than today.

10-year is a short term for climate prediction. Short term cycles may dominate long term trends. Look what would happen if he took this bet for 2002-2012.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.txt

2000 0.40
2001 0.53
2002 0.61
2003 0.60
2004 0.51
2005 0.65
2006 0.59
2007 0.63
2008 0.49
2009 0.59
2010 0.66
2011 0.55
2012 0.58

Anonymous said...

The list utterly fails to match the spirit of Simon/Ehrlich. These wagers do not remotely begin to capture the differences between Ziel and his ideological opponents:

1. 2.5% real growth is an extreeeeeeemely high rate for any long term period.

2. Only a tiny sliver of educational professionals would be tempted to take this one, ordinary liberals would not

3. Why wouldn't a state where resources devoted to education is on a long term downward trend relative to other states have this result?

4. The current price of oil does not differ much from the cost of extraction in the marginal fields, accordingly it cannot respond much to market conditions on the downside

5. Ziel will turn out to be wrong about this one

6. for most liberals this would sound like a perfectly good prediction, though they may believe that the cause is the continuing influence of the right-wing on government policy

7. I'm not sure what set of ideological predilections would cause someone to disagree with Ziel about this one. I suppose those people who predicted success for Bush in Iraq???

8. Almost all liberals would firmly agree with Ziel here

9. This one is just an attempt to get people to misunderstand the question. Simon and Ehrlich would never touch such games - their purpose was to reveal the validity of differing worldviews, not to get cheap gotchas.

a view from without said...

WRT politically motivated bets (offered)

"Wanna bet?" is a signal of confidence. But I would be more impressed by this sort of signal if knew the size of the bet and offered better than even odds.

If the stake is but a penny (or as stake goes to zero for math savvy) even odds is what you offer when you don't have even an inkling of information about the outcome of the betting event.

If we over-analyze, we also need to consider the wealth/income of the individual offering the bet. If someone offers you $10k:$1k bet we think he's pretty sure, with no knowledge of who he is. But what if he is a billionaire like Warren Buffet, trying to spite an uppity youth or shutting up an annoying blogger or just betting for ... "why not?".

Now consider what is the probability of someone taking the bet being a billionaire for the purposes of ... whatever; that is anyone with a lot of wealth instead of a lot of knowledge.

How much should we update our a priori subjective odds (degrees of belief) when we learn that someone takes the bet?
What if that someone is Sailer taking the bet on California demographics? He probably knows something?
What if that someone is FWD.us taking the same bet ostensibly demonstrating his confidence in his latest 'education initiative'? He probably is trying to manipulate the public discourse in favor of more immigration?
What if that someone is someone not particularly rich and is supposed to know something about the betting subject, but the betting money is given by some rich guy? Valuable info at all?
What if that someone is an uni prof who's position is funded by Open Society Institute, Cato Institute or some such? Isn't this just the previous game, but with many iterations?

[What does this also say about value of the prices as signals, equivalently about the efficiency of markets, where people are gambling billions of other people's money
(think of highly leveraged FX operations, hedge funds, or whatever else Soros is doing these days; maninpulation rumors(?) in the 2012 election prediction markets),
is OT and left as an exercise to the reader.]

Conclusion:
1. It's hard to glean any information just from the fact that these bets are offered.
2. These bets more likely to stir controversy instead of settle anything.
3. Which is not necessarily a bad thing for a blogger. (Another thing to consider??)
4. WHY on earth ecologistas, paleocons etc flock to play the efficient-market Libertards' favorite game.

RS said...

While oil consumption has already peaked in the rich world, I cannot imagine world demand going down in 10 years. How do you even measure demand, without reference to price? Anyway I'm told Saudia, so long as they retain the power, won't let the price under $100 because then their budget would not balance.

Some of these bets don't seem very even, particularly the California test scores one. I rather doubt US rGDP will do better than 1.0 cent per annum. But reading Devin Finnbar has pretty much convinced me everything but (synchronic) nGDP is close to being nonsense, anyway. I would rather look at meat consumption (by mass) or chicken breast consumption, or highway miles, or private car miles driven for non-remunerative ends, or average thermostat settings -- these all have certain limitations, but I feel like they have less problems than rGDP and inflation and PPP figures.

Granted some of the bets are interesting. The Brazil/Switz one is kind of so, assuming Ziel meant ratio not difference. Brazil might do decently on a continued raw materials boom. But it largely comes down to which of the two countries gets decently productive people to breed more, and, since we are talking per capita here, others to breed less.

RS said...

> I'd like to see someone seriously put money against China - especially those nay-sayes who pontificate non-stop about 'ghost cities' or whatever it is.
As an earlier thread said, it's all about IQ.

Man, I know it, all that stuff is such rubbish. China has a bubble! Yada yada!. Maybe they do have some partial bubbles, maybe the price of oil will dampen them a bit (though they have planned things out to run more coal than oil) -- but sound fundamentals of yet-underexploited IQ*C is more important than any of that stuff.

Those who have yelped about China getting lapped by India due to her 'democracy' have had their comeuppance ; India's lower quartile are really suffering (and have been) and it's not likely to improve much and might be getting worse (though maybe the rapidly dropping fecundity can obviate utter disaster). I'm not celebrating this suffering but its how it is.

Karen said...

If you want a real bet on something that can be objectively answered and that will demonstrate just how much we have trashed our world, here are two: that surface fresh water reservoirs in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas are 20% smaller in 2023 than they are in 2013; and the annual catch of tuna and cod will be smaller by 5% than they are in 2013.

Anonymous said...

http://www.politicususa.com/2013/09/14/obamas-thoughtful-diplomatic-truimph-syria-leaves-critics-speechless.html

Though Obama seemed to lose to Putin, Putin actually did Obie a favor by serving as an excuse for Ob not to get involved in an unpopular war.

Dana Thompson said...

A lot more than who/whom and its/it's will be gone. The subjunctive mood and several verb tenses are already on their way out the door. Twitter and sports blogs are the new language paradigm.

Most people who use "whom" nowadays use it incorrectly, by the way. Steve almost always gets it wrong.

AMac said...

> 4. The price of oil - despite decreased demand - will be no lower than the average price during 2013.

What's the basis for supposing that a much more populous world would result in lower demand? Higher inflation-adjusted prices of course lead to lower consumption, ceteris paribus. Not the same thing. Human population may well crash in some geographies... also not the same thing.

> 8. Average global temperature, as measured by the GISS, will not be lower than today.

The trend is clear, global temperature is rising. The (one major) reason is clear, too -- the increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by humans burning fossil fuels. No STEM-educated person who accepts modern physics disputes this. (Yes, there are the Sky Dragons; they don't count in my book.)

The focus of heated educated dispute is between the self-described "alarmists" and "lukewarmers." The alarmists form the mainstream climatology consensus, and thus write the "authoritative" IPCC reports. In my opinion, lukewarmer views are more consistent with the climate history of the 20th and 21st Century. See reality-based blogger Lucia's posts on the subject, as well as sensible commenters there like "SteveF".

It's possible that by some measures, average global temperature in 2023 will be lower than it is today. But that's a sucker's bet.

Mr. Anon said...

The number of deaths per-capita in the US due to infrastructure related accidents (train derailments, blackouts, bridge collapses, boiler explosions, etc.) will increase from 2013 to 2023.

Mr. Anon said...

"Anonymous said...

Steve,
What are you alluding to? - the fact that the latest generation of Chinese ship-to-ship or surface-to-ship missiles render aircraft carriers, (even the mega nuclear ones), absolutely irrelevant and useless? - Just like the way submarines outmoded the old fashioned big-gun battleships."

Aircraft carriers became obsolete a long time ago. Any nation with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles and the will to use them can easily destroy its' enemy's entire carrier fleet. The only purpose of aircraft carriers anymore is to beat-up brown people.

Anonymous said...

http://on.cnn.com/18uyQHY

rabbit proof fence

Anonymous said...

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/sep/26/unknown-maggie-thatcher/?pagination=false

Anonymous said...

I agree, the problem is upper middle class whites, in Orange County they are even worst than Asians in hiring illegal Mexicans to do day labor. The solution improved robotics will dropped the demand for illegal Mexicans in Anaheim in Hotels and day labor work. Orange County still grows Asian in Irvine and picks up its white population since OC is more attractive to whites when there is less Hispanics. Mexicans will have gone back home to Mexico those that are displaced by robots or gone to Texas in the Houston and Dallas and San Antonio areas.

Silver said...

"Good point on the Brazil/Switzerland item. Brazil will probably grow faster than Switzerland as the latter is a mature economy and Brazil is blesssed with natural resources, but it's still noy going to get close to Switzerland."

This statement is far too vague to the basis of any bet.

In specific terms: I would bet that Brazilian per capita GDP will be a greater proportion of Swiss per capita GDP in 2023 than it is in 2013.

(In my experience, any time someone feels the need to invoke "natural resources" to explain away economic growth it's a reliable clue they don't really know what they're talking about. You know, as in "duh, Brazilians are so dumb, how else could they possibly grow?")

Anonymous said...

A requirement for most jobs even service jobs with a high school education that would wipe out the illegal Hispanic population since they have 30 percent that have 9th grade and lower. I seen lower skilled manufacturing like warehousing requiring this now and even some maids jobs. The illegals that will qualify for jobs with high school would more likely be dreamers, this makes it hard for whites and blacks without high school but GED programs could solve some of this.

Anonymous said...

The recession kept some of the white population in California from fleeing since it was harder to sell the house. In south Orange County whites are not talking about moving to Arizona or Texas as much as 5 years ago since they found out those states have Mexicans as well. Only the real hard type of conservative like Chuck Devore that became apart of Rick Perry team wants to go to Texas. Many whites now prefer to sell the house in one part of South Orange County and moved into the new housing projects in Lake Forest and Rancho Mission Viejo if you are 55 and older. In fact Irvine has gotten whites to move into south Orange County since its getting more Chinese foreign born.

Silver said...

Just to correct a few inaccuracies on this thread from various commenters:

"As Ziel points out, there's a current wealth shift from rich mature economies to resource rich countries (both first world nations like Norway and second world resource rich countries like Brazil)."

There is no "wealth shift." No one even mildly familiar with economics would use a term like that to describe global trends.

"Since Europe has no military power anymore, it's really the closest thing to leverage they have."

This one's on par with Whiskey's "there are no more majority white countries." Probably a case of classic "race is wrong, therefore e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g is wrong" thinking.

"1. 2.5% real growth is an extreeeeeeemely high rate for any long term period."

It is not extremely high for any 10-year period. (It's not even "high.")

james wilson said...

Let us hope that neither Egypt or Libya have democracies.

The price of oil will drop somewhat even with increased consumption. But I wouldn't care to measure it ten years later in dollars. That is another bet entirely.

BB753 said...

I´ll play:

1) Real average growth will be negative over the next decade, say -1%(as it has been for the last five years, despite the lying official figures)
2)The Gap will decrease, because of all the "White Hispanics" and Arabs and whatnot being counted as white, and the influx of above average African and Caribbean Blacks.
3)Agree
4)The price of oil will start to go down in the 20´s
5)Agree
6)Agree, so will the middle 40%.
7)Who cares? Democracy is overrated.
8) Agree
9)Agree, although Brazil´s GDP per head will be improved relative to the USA.
10) Here´s a prediction of mine: Whites will be a minority in the US in 2023. Or a plurality, if you prefer.
11) Another prediction: obesity will spread to over 50% of the US population.
12) US average IQ will fall below 100, in the mid 90´s, say 94 or so.

Anonymous said...

I don't quite see the point of this wager. How exactly do Native Born White Americans benefit if California becomes majority Asian..as in 90 percent Asian? You mean this would be ok as long as California's math and sciennce scores were very high?

Is this the debate that you-we really want to have? Besides,Julian Simon's acolytes from treason hell would just adjust the terms of debate and say:"ok, flood California with the Asians and we win the wager". For the life of me, I can't figure out why you want to have this wager? What exactly do we win?

Bill Blizzard and his Men

Hepp said...

It misses the point to talk about localized stuff like democracy in Egypt and test gaps in the US. Why not focus on stuff like percentage of population that is illiterate or hungry worldwide? It seems that the pessimists simply just keep focusing on stuff that is irrelevant.

Anonymous said...

it will take more than 10 years for asians to make any serious dent in california.

Anonymous said...

I would take the bet on 7. The long term trends are clear: over time, more and more countries are becoming democratic.

Anonymous said...

Another screed on why Finland's schools are so good without mentioning the students?

http://theweek.com/article/index/249613/the-secret-of-finlands-stellar-schools

Anonymous said...

The oil and gas booms/busts affect per capita income; TX is near the US avg on that. Our other economic statistics, you won’t hear much about on the campaign trail: poverty, low-wage/no-benefit jobs, illiteracy, income inequality, to name a few. Texas’ showing on these has stunk for decades — but didn’t stop GWB from becoming president, just as Clinton’s Arkansas didn’t sink him. You know what else TX ranks really low on? Voter turnout.

Anonymous said...

False. Do the math about how far and fast a carrier can move between first indications and warnings of a launch and weapon detonation. Answer: a heck of a lot further than the lethal radius of any ICBM. Only way in the past to kill one atomically was to launch a major, 40+ strike at one, enough missiles to ensure a massive retaliation.

Anonymous said...

Liberal folks are usually nicer to illegal immigrants like giving them driver's license but they are more likely to support increasing wages which means that business may hire blacks that finished high school to worked at McDonald's rather than illegal Hispanics that didn't. So, the Mexicans might head to Texas where McDonald only has to pay 7.25 hr for their wages and not 10.00. In fact the tight labor market has shown more people with some college take service jobs compared to the Bush years when all of these workers were coming illegal immigrant Hispanics.

jody said...

or conversely, CA won't begin to skew east asian. try this scenario:

the 2 big sources remain south korea and china - but south korea will be so good in a couple years that people will stop leaving, as they did with japan. especially as the population in south korea begins it's decline in absolute terms, and with no immigration into south korea, wages in south korea will continue to go up. uncle sugar takes care of that whole national defense thing for free, so south korea has a sweet deal going. 2023 will be a sunny time there i'm thinking.

that will leave china as the primary source of east asian immigrants - a bottomless barrel of people, for sure. that might be enough to seal the deal for the chinesification of swaths of CA. but if china steadily improves to the point where the volume of immigrants slows down, that won't be enough to offset:

the steady movement of mestizos, american indians, and mulatto-ish people from mexico and central america, who find CA more attractive all the time, as CA politicians deliberately make it so. why would they leave CA when everything is being set up specifically for them? the state is being turned on purpose into a magnet for these people.
CA is losing europeans, not mestizos and american indians. africans were never a big percentage of the population to begin with, maybe 8%? so them dropping down to 6% won't have much effect on test scores.

economically, CA is arranged for a total flood of IQ 88 third worlders, who will live for free via taxing the europeans and east asians with the highest tax rates of any state in the US. there's no reason to think this will change let alone reverse itself. the politicians continue to alter the trajectory to encourage more and more dumb third world immigrants, not less and less.

then your main 2023 CA immigrant groups will be:

1) dumb people from latin america
2) southeast asians, who just plain aren't that smart. i wonder how high the CA east asians actually score on academic tests considering all the filipinos, thais, viets, hmongs have their scores averaged into the numbers as well
3) the hairy chest gold chain crowd (not big contributors to intellectual life)
4) chinese

this is a 2023 scenario which is harder to predict as far as academic test scores go. will there be enough chinese people to offset the other groups?

Truth said...

'After Senator Cory Booker is elected President in 2020 to replace the third President Bush, the US never elects another European-American to be President.'

Not even the 4th president Bush?

el supremo said...

A couple of points on the list not made by others:

1. Real GDP growth will average less than 2.5% per year over the next decade
This is a safe bet due to simple math, given a combination of low expected growth for the first 2-3 years of the period, with a typical business cycle slowdown later in the period pulling the average down regardless of how big as boom you have in the middle(agree with the flaws of "real" GDP that others have noted)

4. The price of oil - despite decreased demand - will be no lower than the average price during 2013.
- A more interesting question is not oil prices but barrel of of oil equivalent to reflect the gas boom in the US and potential substitution from oil - also more meaningful in addressing energy prices as a driver of the economy.

6. The share of total income earned by the bottom 20% of American families (measured in terms of family income) will be lower than it is today; this will also hold true for wealth.
- Also a safe bet - 13% of the population being black will be an anchor on the average of the overall bottom 20%, even if we did see more economic equality more broadly. The dismal state of black america economically at present would make this a safe bet mathematically, regardless of HBD theories.

Anonymous said...

"I suspect the long term trend is that California will become increasingly Asian while shedding blacks and Hispanics to places with lousier weather."

The Republicans should be very afraid. The Midwest is the only place for Mexicans and blacks to go. Once flyover country turns blue it's game over.

As an aside, I'd like to mention an Asian takeover of my East SF Bay city is in progress. In the ten years I've lived here, seven long time elder residents, all white, have died or moved away from our street. All were replaced by Chinese couples with young children. We just happen to be in a district with one of the two best elementary schools east of Orinda (rated a ten in GS) and our median home price is a modest $500K.

Chinese people flock to a bargain like ants to a dead possum.

Truth said...

"The number of deaths per-capita in the US due to infrastructure related accidents (train derailments, blackouts, bridge collapses, boiler explosions, etc.) will increase from 2013 to 2023."


The number capita will increase from 2013 to 2023.




Anonymous said...

Aircraft carriers became obsolete a long time ago. Any nation with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles and the will to use them can easily destroy its' enemy's entire carrier fleet. The only purpose of aircraft carriers anymore is to beat-up brown people.

I'd say the will to fight a war of nuclear annihilation. Russia has never stepped close to the brink despite having thousands of them at its disposal. They'd have to bet on a limited response from the US. Because an all-out second strike would result in catastrophe for the attacker, with deaths that approach Holocaust levels in % terms.

Anonymous said...

"What are you alluding to? - the fact that the latest generation of Chinese ship-to-ship or surface-to-ship missiles render aircraft carriers, (even the mega nuclear ones), absolutely irrelevant and useless? - Just like the way submarines outmoded the old fashioned big-gun battleships."

Aircraft carriers became obsolete a long time ago. Any nation with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles and the will to use them can easily destroy its' enemy's entire carrier fleet. The only purpose of aircraft carriers anymore is to beat-up brown people."

Large capital ships are still needed for command and control, so they aren't likely to disappear from the battle field. The big issue for us is that our navy tends to be gold plated and much more valuable than we can afford to lose in any kind of conflict.

Anonymous said...

The idiocracy has arrived.

Anonymous said...

@AMac

Counterpoint: No STEM educated person who actually understands math, statistics, thermodynamics, atmospheric composition or historical trends believes that global temperature is rising because of an increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide is not the atmospheric equivalent of xenon-135 poisoning in a reactor: It doesn't magically suck thermal energy from the sun to earth and keep it there.

@Mr. Anon

Too much noise in infrastructure related deaths for me to make a meaningful bet on it. Big ticket infrastructure has enormous consequences when it fails, meaning that just one major dam failure could easily outweigh a general improvement in the condition of U.S. infrastructure.

Also, the use of nuclear weapons in war generally means that you've passed the point of practical usefulness for 95% of all military hardware. We still keep the conventional big iron around because it's highly unlikely anyone smart enough to be placed in charge of enough nukes to worry about would use them unless he was really backed into a corner.

I'd agree in general about the declining usefulness of aircraft carriers, but disagree that battleships where rendered obsolete by submarines. People stopped building battleships because nobody other than the U.S. had a significant naval force after WWII, and the U.S. kept it's carriers because they offered more utility per dollar invested than the battleships did in a world where nobody else had a significant fleet. If the naval balance of power changes significantly, expect to see 'big gun' battleships return in numbers, although the guns themselves might be significantly different.

Anonymous said...

CNN aks:

"He had a 'pattern of misconduct' in the Navy, run-ins with the law, and possible mental health problems. So how did Aaron Alexis get clearance as a subcontractor?"

http://on.cnn.com/16i2x9n

Larry Summer had a pattern of misconduct on Wall Street and in Russia in the 90s, so how did he get to serve in Obama's administration?

Obama has a long history of dillydallying with Marxists, the likes of Bill Ayers, Jeremiah Wright, and Chicago machine thugs, so how did he get to become president?

Mexico has a long history of promoting illegal immigration to the US, so why do we allow so many illegals to slip in?

MSM has a long history of telling lies and spinning the truth, so how come the same crooks get to keep pushing the news?

Anonymous said...

"Another screed on why Finland's schools are so good without mentioning the students?"

They should just apply the Finland system in Detroit. Problem solved.

pat said...

I have one for you.

In 2013 the majority of all TV and Internet commentators will refer to Obama at least once as 'feckless'.

Albertosaurus

Anonymous said...

The Obama presidency is all about two things, and two things only. Government takeover of medicine. Electing a new people. He is 50% of the way to being the most consequential president in US history.

Anonymous said...

The number of deaths per-capita in the US due to infrastructure related accidents (train derailments, blackouts, bridge collapses, boiler explosions, etc.) will increase from 2013 to 2023.

That's too nebulous of a definition of "infrastructure deaths", and I doubt anyone keeps stats on it, so it's vulnerable to the "this happened last month so let's count it, but not look for comparable events in 2014" effect.

But I note that road accident deaths have been declining for some time, as have commercial aviation deaths.

And really, boiler explosions? How many steamboats are still plying the Mississippi?

Anonymous said...

These are not exactly dramatic predictions. But oil will decline when the oil companies figure out how to cheaply extract oil from shale and that will definitely happen in the next ten years. One other prediction: Israel will still hold the West Bank and the Golan Heights and the US, the EU and the UN will urge the resumption of peace talks - hell they may still be in the same round of peace talks that they have going now. How is that for bold?

Edo Lasani said...

How about this Simon like wager:

The Southwest USA will go thru a severe water shortage in the next ten years.

Anonymous said...

I predict rockfight, with nearly all parties or official proxies participating. Pending outcome and recalibration of variables, gaming will resume.

Neil Templeton

Anonymous said...

There *is* a 'wealth-shift' - it's an unequivoval fact to anyone who's got eyes to look.

Put it this way, the EU is stagnating, if not actually declining. Meanwhile China just grows and grows. If that's not a wealth shift, what is it?

Of course, now I'm well prepared for a blather of economist-bullshit speak in which words and concepts are just twisted, twisted and twisted with the riposte that 'it's far more complicated than that' or 'you don't know what you're talking about', they usual tactic of economists and shysters.

Mr. Anon said...

"Anonymous said...

False. Do the math about how far and fast a carrier can move between first indications and warnings of a launch and weapon detonation. Answer: a heck of a lot further than the lethal radius of any ICBM. Only way in the past to kill one atomically was to launch a major, 40+ strike at one, enough missiles to ensure a massive retaliation."

MIRV'd warheads are designed to strike targets over a fairly broad area. How far can a carrier group move during a missile's flight time? 20 miles? A few warheads on one missile would likely be sufficient.

Mr. Anon said...

"Truth said...

""The number of deaths per-capita in the US due to infrastructure related accidents (train derailments, blackouts, bridge collapses, boiler explosions, etc.) will increase from 2013 to 2023.""

The number capita will increase from 2013 to 2023."

"Truth" still doesn't understand fractions.

Mr. Anon said...

"Anonymous said...

""The number of deaths per-capita in the US due to infrastructure related accidents (train derailments, blackouts, bridge collapses, boiler explosions, etc.) will increase from 2013 to 2023.""

That's too nebulous of a definition of "infrastructure deaths", and I doubt anyone keeps stats on it, so it's vulnerable to the "this happened last month so let's count it, but not look for comparable events in 2014" effect."

No, it's not nebulous at all. And as America becomes ever more a third world nation, I expect them to become more common. Such events are a matter of public record. Statistics are available.

"But I note that road accident deaths have been declining for some time, as have commercial aviation deaths."

What about the number of accidents? It's true that cars, planes, and trauma medicine have all become better. I would not necessarily count on them staying that way.

"And really, boiler explosions? How many steamboats are still plying the Mississippi?"

The answer to your facetious question is "zero". The answer to the question you are unaware of is - yes, there are still boilers. A lot of places still use steam heat. Many factories and power plants use boilers.

Mr. Anon said...

"Anonymous said...

Large capital ships are still needed for command and control, so they aren't likely to disappear from the battle field."

If your navy's capital ships are on "the battle field", I put it to you that your navy has some problems.

RS said...

> In my experience, any time someone feels the need to invoke "natural resources" to explain away economic growth it's a reliable clue they don't really know what they're talking about. You know, as in "duh, Brazilians are so dumb, how else could they possibly grow?"

Laudable, laudable. It seems Brazil is S-Euro enough to make this an emotional issue for you. Yes commodities are for girls that's why I'm all wha? last week when the PRC politely declined to sell 60% of its rare earth ores to me and some VC buddies. Whatev. Note also how the price of oil had nothing to do with the fall/resurgence of the talentless Russian race as a great power.

Anonymous said...

he steady movement of mestizos, american indians, and mulatto-ish people from mexico and central america, who find CA more attractive all the time, as CA politicians deliberately make it so. why would they leave CA when everything is being set up specifically for them? the state is being turned on purpose into a magnet for these people.
CA is losing europeans, not mestizos and american indians. africans were never a big percentage of the population to begin with, maybe 8%? so them dropping down to 6% won't have much effect on test scores.

economically, CA is arranged for a total flood of IQ 88 third worlders, who will live for free via taxing the europeans and east asians with the highest tax rates of any state in the US. there's no reason to think this will change let alone reverse itself. the politicians continue to alter the trajectory to encourage more and more dumb third world immigrants, not less and less.

then your main 2023 CA immigrant groups will be:
Why not Texas, Ted Cruz promises illegals to become legal without citizenship and get rid of the cape on legal immigration from Mexico. I predict Ca only 45 percent Mexican in 2060 and Texas as much as 60 percent, its closer to both Mexico and Central America.

Anonymous said...

Also, wealthy whites from the East Coast like California more than Texas and the Southwest, the cocky right wing that wants to use them for cheap labor is getting into their faces. If Texas follows the Rick the Prick Perry model of cheap Mexican labor it will blow up in their faces, I predict that the illegal immigrant population will moved into nicer suburbs in Texas just like California, and whites will more moved from Texas to other states. The best idea is robots will destroy about 6 milllion of the jobs now done by illegal immirgants, so both Texas and California are spared.

Anonymous said...

"Put it this way, the EU is stagnating, if not actually declining. Meanwhile China just grows and grows. If that's not a wealth shift, what is it?"

China is in big big trouble.