Ruy Teixeira links to Michael McDonald of George Mason University and shows that Bush's win was a little narrower than the 3 points, 4 million votes we had assumed:
Bush 62,008,619 (50.74%)
Kerry 59,012,107 (48.29%)
Total (all candidates) 122,212,577
(Turnout Rate among eligible: 59.9%)
Margin of Victory: 2,996,512 (2.45%)
Judging from both 2000 and 2004, the Democratic candidate will pick up several tenths of a point after everybody stops paying attention and the conventional wisdom ossifies about how big the margin was.
My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
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