Eagles 20 - Patriots 17

Super Bowl Prediction: Everybody is picking the New England dynasty, but I'll go with Eagles 20 - Patriots 17. (Of course, Super Bowls are seldom that close -- the two week preparation time means that usually one team peaks around last Thursday, comes out flat on Sunday, and gets killed.) Everybody is talking about New England quarterback Tom Brady's great post-season record, but he was only the 9th best passer in the league this year. In contrast, the Eagles' Donovan McNabb finally lived up to the hype and was the 4th best passer in the league.

I don't really believe that post-season success is all that more indicative of talent than regular season performance. For example, even though Jim Plunkett quarterbacked two Super Bowl winners, he really wasn't anything special. The biggest difference about the post-season is: smaller sample size. Thus, in the view of the press, John Elway was a dog for going 0-3 in first three Super Bowls, but then somehow became a god for going 2-0 in his last two. Nah, he was always Elway, which means that he was good enough to reach the Super Bowl so many times that his luck pretty much evened out in the end.

One way McNabb improved this year was by not running much -- his rushing yardage dropped to a career low 220 yards, down from 629 yards in 2000. Running QBs are exciting, but they generally take too much of a beating to throw truly well (e.g., Steve McNair, who had rushed for 674 yards in 1997 was down to only 138 last year, when he was the co-MVP with a great passing year.)

Because passing takes longer to mature in the NFL than running, this means that black quarterbacks, who tend to be much better runners than white quarterbacks, can often get into the starting line-up before they'd ready if they were only passers. For example, Michael Vick is a mediocre passer right now (21st in the NFL), but, because he might be the greatest all-around athlete in the world, he's effective overall because he ran for 902 yards. One interesting question is whether black quarterbacks who start off running a lot before they become good throwers will enjoy as long careers as less adventuresome quarterbacks do. The Falcons recently gave Vick the biggest contract in football, but the risk is that they are hoping he gets a lot better at throwing, and stay good at it over his 10 year contract, because over time, he's going to get a lot worse at running as he ages.