January 8, 2008

New Hampshire exit polls

Here are the Democratic and Republican exit polls.

A reader points out that for the Democrats, the most obvious factor is that younger Democratic men really don't like Hillary. Otherwise, nothing much jumps out at you. They certainly don't seem to differ due to any issues.

The reader adds:

The Dem side was driven by who you are while the GOP was by what you believe. Note that the largest divergences between Romney and McCain were on Iraq, the economy and immigration. Under the surface, it appears Romney was the de facto surrogate for GWB.

My favorite stat: Among voters under 24, Ron Paul beat Hillary (different sets of course, but you get the point).

The Republicans could be called the Cancer Kids, since three of them are battling cancer -- McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson. Maybe that's the issue that will finally get Romney out of his second place rut -- "I'm probably cancer free!"

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

By Steve Sailer on 1/08/2008 Labels:

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

this is tweedledum vs tweedledee kabuki theater. and it's going down to the wire folks. but rest assured that all of the top tier candidates have been vetted by the most powerful intelligence agency in the united states: aipac.

that means that the winner of this farce will definitely…

1. stay the course in iraq

2. proceed with the iran plan

3. sabotage any genuine border security in america

4. proceed with stealth north american union integration

5. aggressively defend "free trade" in congress

6. aggressively defend offshoring of american jobs and h1b visa scams in congress

7. bailout wall street elite after the coming derivative meltdown

8. deliberately devalue the american dollar and erode the power of the middle class

9. squash the aipac espionage investigation

10. squash any future investigations into the lobby

11. ignore treasonous espionage in the military-industrial complex

12. add left or right liberals to the supreme court

13. strengthen hate crimes laws

14. sign off on increasing amounts of tax dollars paid to israel

15. act out the appropriate role in any future false flag operations nuclear or not

16. downplay the islamic invasion of the western world

17. encourage the independence of the "kosova" muslim province from serbia

18. covertly fund radical islam in the next balkan war

19. increase surveillance of the american citizenry

20. assert greater controls over public internet access

this is of course just a short version of the to do list outlining the primary directive of the president of the united states which is now undeniably to serve our hostile and entrenched alien elite to the fullest extent.

1/8/08, 7:18 PM
Anonymous said...

Except of course McAmnesty and Iraq is the surrogate for GWB, and Romney -- foresquare against Amnesty and pretty neutral on Iraq is NOT a GWB proxy.

McAmnesty was the author of Kennedy-McCain amnesty. Also the DREAM act. McCain's victory is a function of Dems/Independents crossing over.

[NH allows cross-party voting.]

McAmnesty is not going anywhere. Neither will Government Spending for Jesus, and likely Fred. The Ronulans can go back to their rock.

Ronulan support among under 24 is not very significant. Taking a quick look at the 2000 Census. People 17-26 make up 14% (approx) of the population. Under 17 is another 14%. Everyone else is about 72% or so.

"Younger" voters just are not that lucrative a voting demographic. Particularly since they vote in fewer numbers than their elders.

[Anecdotally, many of the Obama-messiah supporters at his rallies, young people, were out of state College kids. So says NRO's the Corner.]

Hillary won among women, and among state and federal and local employees. Obama picked up most everyone else but it wasn't enough. Despite the media "Obama-gasm."

Hillary has supposedly dumped her old advisers and gone to Sid Vicious (Blumenthal), Carville and Begala. There's talk of a 527 to "Swift Boat" Obama. Fred is going after Huck in SC. McAmnesty and Romney are going after each other over Amnesty.

And don't count Rudy out. He's leading in FL and the delegates there DWARF IA and NH.

1/8/08, 9:27 PM
Anonymous said...

I have never seen a situation where every single poll AND Intrade were so wrong about an outcome: Hillary beating Barack Obama... I'm also 30 years old and just became acquainted with the "Bradley/Wilder Effect"; I hope we find out soon WHAT happened. From what I gather, the Bradley Effect was a phenomenon noticed in the eighties, but because of few high level bi-racial contests in the nineties to now, it was sort of forgotten about. It didn't have an effect in the Corker/Ford Tennessee race, but may have had some effect, debatable, on Michael Steele. Perhaps the more the contest is about "race", whether by candidate's choice or the media's, the more likely you are to see the Bradley Effect? If I remember, Harold Ford's strategy was to downplay his race as much as possible.

Anyways, I expect that will be all the talk tomorrow. I'm still in shock that Intrade got it so wrong, too. Keep in mind, all these pollsters and bookies got the Republican race right, and very much so.

I guess the bookies forgot about the Bradley Effect, too!

As an aside, as bitter as it is that Juan McStrawberries won N.H., it looks like it will only be by about 5 points. Pored over those exit polls and found they cemented what I've long known... Mitt's religion is killing those of us who care about closing the borders and affordable family formation. The anti-Mormons were ready to hand the nomination to a gruff, intelligent, non-populist, hyper-masculine conservative if only he would have taken it (Thompson) and when he rejected it, they raised up a second tier, effeminate, populist, liberal. They found that it was much more polite to not say religion mattered after being hammered and now simply make up garbage to validate their choice and are fooling themselves with their own rhetoric. I got whiplash at the switch from the man who could eat criminals for breakfast and build that Mexican fence with his bare hands to the guy who released over 1000 criminals and sings kumbaya while throwing tax dollars at foreigners.

Just incredible. What else is waiting to be seen this season? Steve! You're missing out!

1/8/08, 10:13 PM
Anonymous said...

I'm not sure how much of a surrogate Romney can be of Bush. Romney is opposed to Bush's immigration plan, one of Bush's most cherised policies. Romney does appear to be the choice of the old guard over McCain or the Huckster.

1/8/08, 10:29 PM
Anonymous said...

Well, having gone through the exit polls in the Washington post, the thing that stands out is that McCain won amoungst those who would prefer that the next president follow more liberal policies (24% of the vote) 57% to Romney's 18. Amoung the keep things the same group (17%), mcCain won 32-30 over Romney. The people who want a more conservative president (51% of the vote) went for Romney 34 to 27 over McCain.

McCain strongly carried the people to whom terrorism & Iraq are the most important issues. Romney carried the the people who are concerned with immigration 55-16 over McCain.

McCain won the self-described moderates, the somewhat conservative, the no religion crowd, barely carried the Protestants, and did better amoung independents than Republicans. He also did better amoung college grads than non-college, and better with the over 50k a year crowd than the unders. He also won heavily amoung those who decided in the last week or three days to support him. Those were 48% of the vote and he won 47 and 40% respectively.

So: I don't see how Romney can possibly the proxy for Bush, unless McCain is then the proxy for Joe Lieberman.

The media (and Bush WH?) campaign to crown McCain worked, but not nearly as well as you would expect in a liberal state - without the even more liberal independents coming in, he would have lost.

So McCain basically won the Mark Steyn/Liberal hawk primary.

Also, given that Guilani is basically McCain in drag (ha!) I don't see where there is anything left for Guilani, since St. John just sucked up all the remaining neoconservative oxygen.

max
['Romney might be down, but Guilani has to be OUT.']

1/9/08, 6:29 AM
Anonymous said...

Under the surface, it appears Romney was the de facto surrogate for GWB.

No, wrong, as other posters have said, Grandpa MaC. is the invade 'em, invite 'em all guy.

McCain -> most Bush-like.

I notice all the New York-based ( euphemism) news media are pushing hard for McCain. For example, Fox this morning was saying Romney us just about findished now, having failed to win two primaries. Never mind that McCain was 4th in Iowa. Trust Fox less and less.

Do we have a McCain operative posting here?


Romney -> Less in love with Mexicans, but may be too pro-Big Business. Mitt seems more like a very traditional country club Repub. than a Mormon. Yes, I know some LDS people. Bet Mitt never wears any polyester clothes, and plays golf. ( Sorry, Steve. )

Rev. Huckleberry -> If he sticks to his pitch to amend our current practice of automatically making children of illegals born in the USA citizens, he'll get my vote. Watch how hard the establishment media trys to bury him before the South Carolina primary.

1/9/08, 9:02 AM
Anonymous said...

WSJ reports Hillary won among lower income voters, Obama-the-messiah won among upper income voters.

Perhaps good for advertising demographics, not a winning general electoral strategy. Obama is weak among the general electorate which wants policies not feel-good-about-racism moral superiority.

Hillary also won among those deciding late, the deciding factor being her more detailed policies and Obama merely offering vague speeches. Hype only goes so far and it's failing faster now.

McCain won among Independents and Dems who crossed over (NH allows this) to vote for him. It does not seem McAmnesty will go any farther.

[What is odd is how silent and absent from any political debate lame-duck GWB has been. He's practically disappeared.]

1/9/08, 12:38 PM
Anonymous said...

As a young liberal male, I don't trust Hillary not to try something dastardly against my gender. If she is nominated, I will vote Republican, and will support the Republican party financially.

1/9/08, 5:56 PM
Anonymous said...

To David Davenport:

The Huckster has stated that he does not support ending birth right citizenship. He favors keeping it and he still favors amnesty, but he lies to cover that fact up.

The Washington Times story linked on Drudge about the Huckster is wrong and wasn't sourced beyond one person, Jim Cilcrist who was wrong.

1/9/08, 5:58 PM
Anonymous said...

The only candidate I know of who wants to end birthright citizenship is Ron Paul.

1/9/08, 8:39 PM
Anonymous said...

Here is some interesting data from the exit polls. It appears to confirm the belief that liberal Democrats crossed over to vote for McCain for whatever motive. It should be noted that the Concord Monitor, the largest liberal newspaper in New Hampshire, published an endorsement editorial calling on liberals in the state to “stop Mitt Romney” at all costs. The Union Leader endorsed McCain. So the two largest newspapers were going all out to stop Romney.

56 percent of McCain voters want “Less Conservative Policies” than those of the BUSH administration!

54 percent of McCain voters support Amnesty for illegal aliens.

43 percent of McCain voters strongly support New Hampshire’s new law granting gays & lesbians civil unions.

39 percent of McCain voters support the legality of abortion in all cases.

60 percent of McCain voters felt Romney ran an unfair campaign against McCain.

61 percent of Romney voters felt McCain ran an unfair campaign against Romeny.

25 percent of McCain voters felt McCain was best on the issues.

47 percent of McCain voters liked McCain but with reservations.

38 percent of McCain voters strongly disapprove of the war in Iraq.

38 percent of McCain voters have a positive view of Ron Paul.

37 percent of McCain voters are Angry at the Bush administration.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228191/

1/9/08, 11:20 PM
Anonymous said...

Can you examine the possible election fraud:
http://benmoseley.blogspot.com/2008/01/do-nh-primary-statistics-show-election.html

1/11/08, 11:05 AM

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