May 18, 2009

California foreclosure rates and mortgages by race

In response to my new article on what the data show about the origin of the mortgage meltdown in California -- i.e., that there's a very close correlation in California's top 20 metro areas between minority lending (especially minority subprime lending) in 2006 and foreclosure filing rates in 2009 -- I was asked about other correlations.

I'm happy to oblige below, but I would recommend that you read my column first to see the highlights graphed, then come back here to wallow in the correlation coefficients in tabular form.

So, here are the correlation coefficients between RealtyTrac's Q1-2009 foreclosure rates for the top 20 metro areas in California and the federal government's Home Mortgage Disclosure Act database records of racial groups' prime and subprime shares of total mortgage dollars in 2006.

"r" is the correlation coefficient, which runs from -1.00 (perfect inverse correlation) to 1.00 (perfect correlation). In the social sciences, 0.2 is typically considered low, 0.4 moderate, and 0.6 high.

Race Type Share r
Total Total 100%
Total Prime 73% -0.90
Total Subprime 27% 0.90
NH White Total 44% -0.78
NH White Prime 38% -0.83
NH White Subprime 6% 0.21
Not NH White Total 56% 0.78
Not NH White Prime 35% 0.50
Not NH White Subprime 21% 0.89
Asian Total 15% 0.18
Asian Prime 12% 0.06
Asian Subprime 3% 0.48
Black Total 5% 0.48
Black Prime 2% 0.42
Black Subprime 3% 0.51
Hispanic Total 31% 0.67
Hispanic Prime 16% 0.51
Hispanic Subprime 15% 0.78
Other Total 5% 0.02
Other Prime 4% -0.36
Other Subprime 1% 0.62
Hisp & Blacks Total 36% 0.79
Hisp & Blacks Prime 19% 0.62
Hisp & Blacks Subprime 17% 0.87
NAMs Total 41% 0.81
NAMs Prime 23% 0.62
NAMs Subprime 18% 0.88

You can call up the HMDA data here. (Table 11-3: Conventional Home Purchase First Lien Loans, with "Reported Pricing Data" (subprime) vs. "Not Reported Pricing Data" (Prime)).

My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer


Anonymous said...

What are NH whites?

eh said...

You won't be winning any friends over at TPM with these posts.

What are NH whites?

Probably NH = non-Hispanic; in some data collectons Hispanics are sometimes classified as white.

Anonymous said...

---Probably NH = non-Hispanic; in some data collectons Hispanics are sometimes classified as white.---

Like when crime stats are compiled. I couldn't imagine why...

Tanstaafl said...

Presuming the regions in which the percentage of White mortgage dollars is lower occurs where the percentage of non-White ownership is higher, the negative correlation in this graph from the VDARE article ( actually represents a positive correlation known in the vernacular as "White flight".

In other words Whites have a well-known tendency to leave neighborhoods in which we become outnumbered, and this graph of default data reflects that.

While we're on the subject of mortgage bubbles and race, I'd like to see more data on, how to put this delicately, J and NJ White involvement at the lending, securitizing, and bailout levels of this man-made crisis.

Surely nobody here believes the so-called NAMs engineered "reverse redlining" for themselves.