I'm wondering whether the NFL passing game is evolving in the direction the placekicking game has already gone. Kickers today get no credit whatsoever for making extra points and very little for making field goals under, say, 45 yards. You mostly hear about them when they miss.
Quarterback strategies and execution are now starting to reach a similar point where the big story of the Super Bowl was the lone interception thrown in the game.
Quarterback strategies and execution are now starting to reach a similar point where the big story of the Super Bowl was the lone interception thrown in the game.
My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
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43 comments:
The running game is pretty much irrelevant in today's NFL. They need to undue some of the rule changes to make passing harder.
I'm with you on that. The rule changes have greatly helped the passing game. The league's average passer rating has jumped from 57.8 in 1977 to 81.2 this year.
I think we might be heading to a year like baseball had in 1930 when batter's realized how much of an advantage they had. Pitchers returned the favor in 1968, and the mound was subsequently lowered.
As for kicking, we should either ditch the extra point or consider narrowing the goals posts. The latter is probably the easiest.
Didn't the gassing pame improve because the offensive line was allowed to HOLD the defense? Or, maybe it's because there are more blacks on the offensive line today, thus providing better pass protection for the QB.
It won't last. It's a lot tougher to block a kick than to pressure a QB or breakup a route. Sooner or later we'll get some innovation in defense that will start a new arms race.
Remember that Lombardi's "Run to Daylight" scheme really shook up the NFL, but it wasn't long before Landry countered with the Flex Defense.
I'm sure you know that yeterday's game was not exactly typical. Both defenses played badly - the Saints' defense was really bad, while the Colts' was a complete joke. And I live in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. I've seen enough lousy Donovan McNabb performances to know that most QB's are not "getting too good."
By the way, Steve, are you writing a book on the "Sailer Strategy" for the GOP? It sure would be nice to get your very good ideas out to the folks who listen to talk radio and watch Fox news before the midterm elections in 2010. If enough House GOP candidates ran on an immigration moratorium platform, they could surely win back the majority. Maybe your fans could try to get you publicity on Beck or Limbaugh's radio show.
quarterbacks are getting better, even without the rule changes. the reason they do not get much credit, as i have pointed out before, is because all the best quarterbacks are white. awesome performances by white quarterbacks are routinely downplayed. i've noticed this again and again. drew brees' 2008 season, one for the ages, was mostly ignored.
contrast the US sports media's reaction to ben roethlisberger's thrilling 500 yard game against the packers, versus vince young's first good game as pro, after 4 years of waiting, against the texans.
only 10 500 yard games have ever been thrown in NFL history! and only 2 in the last decade! quarterbacks who never threw for 500 yards in a game: peyton manning, tom brady, brett favre.
the steelers-packers game was the game of the year, a classic shootout for the ages between two hall of fame quarterbacks. attention payed to roethlisberger and rodgers: zero. rodgers also led the league in quarterback rushing.
matt stafford set the NFL record for rookies with 422 yards against the browns, with a 112 rating. acknowledgement by the media: zero.
now, if black quarterbacks were routinely bombing away for 300 yards a game, you can bet the coverage and credit would be high.
here's the real story of the superbowl: the colts offense scored just SEVEN points in the second half!
we're not talking about the steel curtain either here, this was against the saints defense, good but not great.
4 time MVP peyton manning not only threw the game losing interception, but then could not score again. with 3:20 on the clock and 3 timeouts, he could not get the ball in the endzone when he absolutely had to. he had the ball 1st and goal on the saints 1 yard line and COULD NOT SCORE.
now we see how utterly stupid bill belichick was to go for it on 4th and 2.
i also noticed the CBS crew got a statistic completely wrong, but phil simms noticed right away too. they said the saints were the first team ever to on-sides kick before the 4th quarter, but the steelers did this against the cowboys in 1996.
I think it has as much to do with the rule changes as QBs getting better. Defensive backs get called for interference if they look cross eyed at a receiver. In the old days they could play that bump and run coverage and really disrupt the timing between a qb and receiver.
Yes, I suppose so, it's inevitable.
In baseball one fact often eludes those analysts who try to explain the disapearance of the .400 hitter. In the nineteenth century a professional baseball team might make a dozen fielding errors in a single game.
Today shortstops are, as you say, "too good". They don't make errors, period. Balls that used to be hits in the old days are "hoovered up" by the infield or run down by the outfield.
With all the money spent on football training and selecting we can expect a future with very few interceptions, dropped balls, or fumbles.
I noticed yesterday that a couple guys lost their footing because the grass and ground had been wet. The league probably has a task force in action today to see that nothing like that ever happens again.
What's wrong with high scoring games? And the passing game is spectacular, so why not allow it to prosper?
It's not as though, with perfect QBs, passing will ever achieve a complete monopoly at the expense of running. The more you defend against passing the more open you are to runners.
We saw a bit of that in the first half last night. Saints allowed Addai too much room down the centre. One of his runs was his season highest.
Don't change the goal posts. Kicking would be harder if there wasn't some guy to place and hold the ball. Perhaps the kicker has to receive and score a "drop goal" (as in Rugby) where the ball has to hit the ground before he strikes it.
More playing time for Rex Grossman should even things out!
Is it me, or did the blacker team win yesterday? You said blacks are better at on the fly thinking, and trying to intercept a football in front of one hundred million people is definitely on the fly.
The evolution of the quarterback position is a lot like the evolution of professional chess or poker. There is a wealth of information out there that is available to Quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, who had a high-level understanding of pro passing schemes since his mid-teens. A lot of this comes through access to year-round coaching, camps and videotape sessions that earlier generations didn't have.
In like manner, Chess players can use computer programs and Internet forums to instantly learn tactics and theory that it took Bobby Fischer 10 years to develop back in the 1960's. In poker, Internet hacks like Chris Moneymaker can step on the seen as unknowns with little more than just strong nerves and luck on their side.
Starting Quarterbacks are also getting taller and learning the value of the quick release. They're taking less punishment and it's very acceptable for the pro QB to be a virtual coward on the field, taking almost no hits. This keeps higher QB-rating starters on the field much more.
The NFL is quite OK with the de-evolution of the QB into virtual untouchable "sissy" since the end product is much better and more marketable with 1st-string quarterbacks on the field.
he had the ball 1st and goal on the saints 1 yard line and COULD NOT SCORE.
That's not down to the QB. Like almost all football games, this one came down to the battle between the offensive and defensive lines.
The NFL is quite OK with the de-evolution of the QB into virtual untouchable "sissy"
You have an interesting fantasy life.
Is it me, or did the blacker team win yesterday?
Okay, I am going to get in a lot of trouble for what I am about to say, but the answer is no.
Until yesterday, I hadn't watched a full NFL game in about ten years, but, having done so, I now realize why Peyton Manning has had to call all of his own plays.
See here. And here.
What you saw yesterday was Peyton Manning valiantly trying to make up for the fact that he gets zero help from his coaching staff.
So the game was basically Peyton Manning versus the entire New Orleans Saints' brain trust.
And Manning darn near pulled it off - the Colts played a very, very good game, but the Saints played a perfect game.
Anyway, having watched the game, the Colts were definitely the black team, and the Saints were definitely the white team.
The Saints were at least as white as the great Belichick teams in New England - maybe even whiter - they had white guys in skilled positions all over the field [and that guy who caught the 2-point conversion must be at least 3/4ths white].
I have a feeling quarterbacks won't do as well next year due to a new factor: ndamukong suh
It is interesting to note the arms race between the three major sports leagues.
The NFL penalizes defenses for once minor infractions. The passing game has increasingly become the most important offensive strategy to the detriment of the run. QBs can't be touched.
In the NBA, the hand check rule has allowed players to score more, and defenses are limited in their strategies. NBA are high-scoring once again, like they were in the 1980s.
MLB has altered the strike zone and juiced the ball (and possibly the players) in order to recoup the losses of the 1994 strike.
All three of these sports hope to create more offensive production which is what crowds really prefer to see.
It's good for casual fans, but worst for the players (chance plays more of a role) and diehard fans.
"contrast the US sports media's reaction to ben roethlisberger's thrilling 500 yard game against the packers, versus vince young's first good game as pro, after 4 years of waiting, against the texans..."
Uh, Vince Young is a two-time pro-bowler with a winning record, Sport.
"only 10 500 yard games have ever been thrown in NFL history! and only 2 in the last decade! quarterbacks who never threw for 500 yards in a game: peyton manning, tom brady, brett favre."
I think you "forgot" to mention who is #2 all time in single game passing yardage...Warren Moon.
"i've noticed this again and again. drew brees' 2008 season, one for the ages, was mostly ignored."
Yeah, it was so much ignored that he was named 2nd team All-Pro after P.Manning; whom I believe is another white guy, right?
"rodgers also led the league in quarterback rushing."
Yeah, wow, he rushed for a whopping 316 yards in 16 games, NINETEEN WHOLE RUSHING YARDS A GAME! Why didn't they do a 60 Minutes piece on him, I wonder?
Well maybe the fact that his 50 sacks for 306 yards lost gave him TEN NET YARDS RUSHING FOR THE SEASON. Michael Vick should be worried about his record!
"matt stafford set the NFL record for rookies with 422 yards against the browns, with a 112 rating. acknowledgement by the media: zero."
And his season rating? 61, ouch. That's actually 1.2 points higher than Josh Freeman's (black) who was drafted 16 slots lower than he was.
lOWER cASE jOEY, debating you makes me feel like Drew Brees*
*Looking at a secondary with 4 white starters; DAAAAAA-HAAAAAAA!
Thank god for Peyton that he won that one ring, he is, for all intents and purposes, the NFL's John Stockton.
When I was in college I used to argue constantly with a friend about who was better, Stockton or Isiah Thomas, I said Stockton and on the base level, I was dead wrong.
Stockton was better from a longevity standpoint as he played like 8 years longer than Thomas, but for one game in their primes, absolutely no contest; Thomas was capable of magic (no pun intended) he could win games by himself, and he always performed when the chips were down, Stockton played the same way with the same intensity and energy level; and more or less the same results, in game 7 of the championship, the first game of the season, or a pickup game with his kids.
He was all technique, solidity, and hard-work, but when everyone else was playing harder, he just didn't have an overdrive gear.
"I have a feeling quarterbacks won't do as well next year due to a new factor: ndamukong suh"
Suh is the most dominant college lineman since at least Bruce Smith, but did you hear that they are thinking of banning the 3-point stance (concussions).
That would be an absolute game changer (NPI).
Just to clean up after some of the riff-raff:
Jody- Cowher's onsides kick was in the 4th quarter and was gutsier that Payton's
Reggie wayne dropped Manning's TD pass at the goal line- right in his hand sfor the score and it was dropped....you did watch the game, right?
Good point about Big ben vs. Vince though- Young is wildly over-hyped - some dumbass on Sportscenter asked John Clayton whether VY would get MVP votes.....Clayton was mystified
Truth- Vince Young is not good, great college QB but doesn't hang in pocket and make necessary reads-never will succeed unless he overhauls game but that's not gonna happen, I think you know that though.
Also, I don't get your criticism of Aaron Rodgers- he's a stud QB with multiple probowls ahead of him.
Warren Moon- God bless him but he never won anything (in the NFL) and struggled in the playoffs
Dan in DC
I was a Bears fan growing up and here is a change in the Bears from the late 70s to the mid 80s which has something to do with the switch from running to passing (IMHO).
Alan Page was a Bears DT in the late 70s. Page was around 225 lbs; as a tackle! But, he amassed a huge number of sacks. In the 1985 draft the Bears picked William Perry. He weighed probably 50-60% more then Page. Buddy Ryan, the Bears defensive guru, publicly ridiculed the pick. However, where did he end his career? Playing for Eagles with Ryan when Ryan was the head coach.
What made Ryan change his mind? Perry could stand his ground and take up blockers. If you put a huge man in the middle he gums up the works and makes it very difficult to run inside and combine with with fast outside linebackers to cover the edge it makes it more difficult to run period. You could see this strategy subsequently catch on with some of the best defenses. Packers- Gilbert Brown, Ravens- Saragusa (spelling?), Vikings- Williams.
The problem is with this strategy you give up a pass rush. Alan Page played 218 games and is credited with (Wikipedia)178.5 sacks, Perry played 138 games and is credited with 29.5 sacks.
In the run happy season of 1978 Page had 18 sacks as a tackle. According to NFL.com the DT sack leader had 6 sacks this pass happy season.
Someguy
I mentioned in an early comment that I think that the Pinker/Gladwell/Sailer debate on draft position and performance was too narrowly focused on QBs.
A student and I looked at RB performance for the RBs drafted from 1988 to 1998 (most of these backs are no longer playing). The draft position/performance (e.g., rushing yards, TDs, etc.) correlations were consistently around -.4.
Someguy
The Saints copied "utterly stupid bill belichick" 's strategy with the onside kick. That was the point, keep the Colts offense off the field. Only they did it in such a high risk manner they made Belichick look conservative. Don't know what would have happened but if the Colts had scored again either through a traditional kick off or by retrieving that onside kick, I think the pressure on the Saints may have forced a Bree's interception which would have won the game for the Colts. This is one way the game may evolve, use special teams and fullbacks to keep the stud quarterback on the sidelines.
Rule changes that are needed to restore balance between offense and defense:
Get rid of the Manning rule allowing the quarterback to move forward and backward and stalk up and down the line prior to the snap. In the past if the quarterback bobbed his head too much on a hard count it was a penalty. Now the QB can do practically anything and the defensive players who can't see the snap and have to watch for movement from the offense are at a disadvantage. Plus I just hate the showboating.
Restore the distinction between 5 yard and 15 yard face mask penalties.
Eliminate the horse collar penalty - the dumbest rule ever instituted in any sport, anywhere, anytime. In a sport where huge guys are colliding at full speed all over the field they decide to worry about dragging down a player from behind?
Bradshaw, research the percentage of blacks starting on the offensive lines in the NFL with the general percentage for all positions and get back to us, OK.
Reggie Wayne has reached the point in his career where his physical skills can't cover his mental miscues. He spent the entire game looking like he was walking through a Tuesday scrimmage!
Crybaby Manning doesn't even bother to bark at him anymore!
And a softball for Troofie-Caldwell shows the skills and intelligence to be an NFL head coach, doesn't he?
Brutus
QBs can't be touched.
Why do people keep repeating this nonsense? Of course QB's can be touched. They just can't be hammered into the ground after they've thrown the damn football. But I see QB's getting sacked all the time, a process which sure seems to involve some physical contact.
I have often thought that the field goal isn't supposed to be as easy to come by as modern kickers have made it. Tighter goalposts are the obvious fix.
Serious fans like to see a balance between offense and defense, and running and passing. I view the NFL's current emphasis on the passing game as part of the proletarianization of sports, and of society in general. Hence, a fix, while requiring only a tweak or two of the rules, is not in the offing.
Didn't the gassing pame improve because the offensive line was allowed to HOLD the defense?
The offensive line is not allowed to hold the defense. We've got some poor excuses for football experts commenting here.
Mind you, I don't see why the offense should not be allowed to hold, the same way the defense does. In spite of what some people think, the rules are still biased in favor of the defense.
"Don't change the goal posts. Kicking would be harder if there wasn't some guy to place and hold the ball. Perhaps the kicker has to receive and score a "drop goal" (as in Rugby) where the ball has to hit the ground before he strikes it."
Actually drop kicks are still permitted by the rules of the NFL and Doug Flutie (I think) kicked a drop goal extra point for the Patriots a couple of years ago.
So the kicker can kick the ball like that (drop kick as opposed to place kick), but it's unlikely they would do so because the shape of the ball makes for an unpredictable bounce.
If you want to make field goals harder, how about allowing defenders to run up their teammates' backs? More blocked kicks would also make the game more exciting.
My major beef with the NFL is their refusal to use instant replay to determine if a pass interference actaully took place. I am sickened when I see the refs call a penalty that gives free yards to the offense. So many times this happens during crucial moments and so many times it's predictable which team will benefit. (Yes, I do think refs favor certain teams and certain qbs and certain quarterbacks.)
I also think that in order to be awarded 6 points, the ball carrier should have to have at least one shoulder in the end zone, none of this holding the ball over the plane of the end zone. (Even under today's rules, that awarding of the two point conversion to New Orleans was ridiculous. When a receiver has the ball for only 1/1000 of a second, that is not "possession" as I understand it.
I've often wondered if the public would like the NFL game if QBs called their own games as they did decades ago before radios in their helmets.
I'd really love to find out if, for example, a Ben R. would be the QB he is w/out the coaches calling the plays.
Or...if that's to much to ask, I'd like to see what would happen if the eye-in-the-sky coaches were removed from their perches and photographs were banned.
I suppose, however, this would never happen, as it would probably lead to defensive struggles, less scoring, and the NFL loves scoring.
"Why do people keep repeating this nonsense? Of course QB's can be touched. They just can't be hammered into the ground after they've thrown the damn football."
You are so right. Does anyone remember the Saints' hits (but not sacks) on Favre, with contact made with him AFTER the ball had left his hand?
Gee, think that if those hits had been delivered by a Raider that they wouldn't have been called penalties?
Face it--the refs leaned toward the Saints this year.
I think the general idea I am getting from this discussion is:The Saints won. But the Colts COULDVE won.If only things had been different. OK got it...
Ask yourself these questions:
Who are the best NFL quarerbacks under the age of 30?
Who are the best college quarterbacks?
Who were the mostly highly recruited high school quarterbacks this year?
You really can't name very many traditional drop back passers. Check out the ESPN 150 of the best high school players in the country. "Are quarterbacks getting too good?" Only a hand full of QBs even made the list! And none near the top. (Not many white players, regardless of position, made the top 150).
In college and high school, the trend, for years now, has been to the spread option attack, utilizing a mobile quarterback. The NFL can only rig the game so long to favor the pass.
I think the general idea I am getting from this discussion is:The Saints won. But the Colts COULDVE won.If only things had been different. OK got it...
The Colts played a very, very good game.
The Saints played a perfect game.
If they played a seven game series, then I think the Colts would probably win four or five, but on this given day, the Colts weren't quite perfect enough.
Face it--the refs leaned toward the Saints this year.
Yes, they did.
But it's a real testament to the Colts O-Line that that same dirty Saints defense couldn't even sniff Peyton Manning.
The Colts have one whale of an O-Line.
"And a softball for Troofie-Caldwell shows the skills and intelligence to be an NFL head coach, doesn't he?"
I don't know, but he did go 17-2 against other coaches as a rookie, that's pretty good, isn't it?
At the high school level one superior athlete can often run all over the opponent's defense. In college, everyone is a superior athlete and that is less often the case. In the NFL, its doesn't happen.
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