Michael Barone writes:
But the next big immigration source, I think, will be sub-Saharan Africa. We may end up with prominent politicians who actually were born in Kenya. ...
America is getting to look a lot more like Texas, and that’s one trend that I hope continues.
Since "African-American" is already taken, we need a term for people such as Akeem Olajuwon: Sub-Saharan Americans? Houston, where Olajuwon played in college and the NBA, appears to be the capital of Sub-Saharan America, due to the oil industry's connections to Nigeria, climate, Houston's Lagos-style city planning regulations, and, maybe, Olajuwon himself.
So far, the U.S. has mostly been skimming the cream off black Africa, so immigration from sub-Saharan Africa hasn't proved to be a huge problem, yet. Still, regression toward the mean in the next generations is always problem, especially when regression is turbocharged by the most attractive set of bad examples in the world to a 13-year-old boy: the rap-industrial complex.
Worse, there isn't much cream in that coffee.
While fertility is low in much of the world, it remains extraordinarily high in Sub-Saharan African. Where all those people will end up is one of the major questions of the 21st Century.
One possibility is that Sub-Saharans will conjure up another new disease to go along with AIDS. A Chinese scholar writing five years before Malthus pointed out that the four horsemen of the apocalypse tend to arrive late but in a hurry: population swells slowly, then falls quickly.
Another possibility is emigration.
While fertility is low in much of the world, it remains extraordinarily high in Sub-Saharan African. Where all those people will end up is one of the major questions of the 21st Century.
One possibility is that Sub-Saharans will conjure up another new disease to go along with AIDS. A Chinese scholar writing five years before Malthus pointed out that the four horsemen of the apocalypse tend to arrive late but in a hurry: population swells slowly, then falls quickly.
Another possibility is emigration.
The advanced economy most conveniently located by land for many black African emigrants is Israel. Israelis, however, are increasingly aware of this fact, and are, shall we say, less sentimental about immigration than are their American cousins.
Europe is next closest, but the political mood appears to be unwelcoming there, although not as much as in Israel.
In the U.S., however, sentimentality is increasingly militant, so Barone may be right.
The most extraordinary prediction, however, is Peter Frost's: that the country that will be overrun by surplus sub-Saharans is ... China.
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114 comments:
We've already had issues.
Jessica Tata's story is a prime example.
Europe is next closest, but the political mood appears to be unwelcoming there, although not as much as in Israel.
Well, the Italians have actually managed to slow the flow of migrants to their shores, which is more than I can say about Israel.
"Whereas this current of emigration used to flow mainly toward the ex-colonial powers, particularly France and Great Britain, it is now spreading to other destinations. North Africa has ceased to be a zone of transit for these emigrants and is becoming a de facto zone of settlement, particularly Libya but also Morocco and Algeria."
The liberated Lybians solved this issue...
Africa would be a lot better off if it kept it's own cream.
Mississippi is the lowest-IQ state in our union. Can you imagine if the incentives were set up so that all of it's cognitive 1% left and never came back? And that this happened for fifty years straight? It would be bad news.
Don't the Chinese notoriously despise blacks? Might be one reason you don't find many blacks in China.
From Barone:
But [black migration to northern cities] stopped, abruptly, in 1965, just after passage of federal civil rights acts and at the beginning of a period of urban ghetto riots in the North. There has been no mass movement of blacks from South to North ever since, but rather a slight net move in the other direction.
That abrupt end to migration in 1965 is an interesting phenomenon. Why did it happen?
Refuse any mass immigration from ssAfricans. Tighten up on refugee immigration, 90+% of which is entirely fraudulent and much of the rest vastly exaggerated.
Only let in those that could get into without affirmative action the top 10% of our universities.
O childless ones, I wouldn't be too critical of the people who will be turning your old bodies in the nursing home.
"America is getting to look a lot more like Texas, and that’s one trend that I hope continues."
Is this guy an idiot?
And he's a conservative, right?
China as a destination for massive African immigration? My first instinct was to laugh at the absurdity of it. China is not, after all, under the sway of the 'WASP-Harvard-Mafia.' But after a pause, it's not as preposterous as it at first sounds. Do we really know how deep the rabbit hole goes?
China as a destination for massive African immigration? My first instinct was to laugh at the absurdity of it. China is not, after all, under the sway of the 'WASP-Harvard-Mafia.' But after a pause, it's not as preposterous as it at first sounds. Do we really know how deep the rabbit hole goes?
I wonder if the lack of a welfare state means immigrants return to their country of origin if they fail to be a success in China.
"Houston, where Olajuwon played in college and the NBA, appears to be the capital of Sub-Saharan America, due to the oil industry's connections to Nigeria, climate, Houston's Lagos-style city planning regulations, and, maybe, Olajuwon himself."
And thousands of Nigerians who have gone into petroleum engineering and geology which are probably two of the most desirable degrees to earn right now.
We know what China is willing to do to its own citizens. I don't think they'll be too PC when dealing with would be immigrant Sub-Saharan hordes.
""America is getting to look a lot more like Texas, and that’s one trend that I hope continues.""
I wonder if Michael Barone lives in a neighborhood that 'looks like 'texas' let alone sub-saharan africa.
China isn't that stupid. Methinks Steve Hsu is telling those big fishes funding the Beijing Genomics Institutes a lesson or two about HBD.
And it's not like it needs African labour. There's 10x more Chinese in Africa than Africans in China.
Blacks will go to North Africa and the Middle East, and stay. It's not ideal but it's better than home. Muslims also have a long tradition of putting blacks to work.
Either that or they will starve.
China is not, after all, under the sway of the 'WASP-Harvard-Mafia.' But after a pause, it's not as preposterous as it at first sounds. Do we really know how deep the rabbit hole goes?
I do not understand the application of the rabbit hole phrase in this paragraph.
O childless ones, I wouldn't be too critical of the people who will be turning your old bodies in the nursing home.
Bears repeating. Might not be a lot of sympathy to fund or care for "old racists."
America is getting to look a lot more like Texas, and that’s one trend that I hope continues.
What on earth is motivating this zeal to replace historical Americans with an entirel new demographic??
I remember Barone explaining that Sarah Palin had foreign experience, in that the Japanese had briefly occupied Attu and Kiska, two small islands in the Aleutians, twenty years before she was born.
Moron or liar, what does it matter?
Frost is an idiot with less experience than even I had in China. While in Beijing for about 5 months in 1996, I was told by students at both Tsinghua and Beijing University that fights with African students were the norm, and always over women. Which the Chinese men did not like the African students making time with scarce Chinese women.
Already Beijing is rounding up foreigners without work permits in Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities and deporting them. China is not a fan of foreign devils.
As for "looking a lot like Texas" and needing foreigners to work in nursing homes, that's a laugh twice. First, looking like Texas means a massive and permanently poor underclass requiring massive amounts of cash to support having kids at 16 -- the "magicness" of Hispanic fertility. The mother of all spoils battles. Second, as VDH has noted Mexicans require more health care than Whites, mostly related to obesity illnesses such as diabetes. Mexican girls get fat age 10, and stay that way. White girls in the middle class and higher watch their weight mostly and work out to stay thin (to attract the most Alpha of Alphas -- Hispanic girls will not be forced into slenderness competitions with an oversupply of Alphas).
"O childless ones, I wouldn't be too critical of the people who will be turning your old bodies in the nursing home."
"Bears repeating. Might not be a lot of sympathy to fund or care for "old racists."
Yeah, liberal white folks will get the best care in the world.
Like George Zimmerman.
The question of mass migration however is one that will not go away. Africans have proven unable to create societies that produce wealth and growth and stability. So Africans are likely to continue the mass exodus into Europe. Which is in slow motion economic collapse.
This is IMHO likely to produce Camp of the Saints, as well as a Cromwell. I.E. a total collapse of borders as the current elites just cannot close them, lacking even the desire much less the will to do so. With a complete desire by ordinary people to have money spent on THEM not Africans. Such a massive tension and the "lifeboat economics" that say, Israel is experiencing, will bring about IMHO a Cromwell. A new, rising-class representative from a less corrupt class/group that overthrows the old corrupt and inept order. As a part-Irish person that does not fill me with joy (Cromwell's impact on the Irish was nothing short of disastrous). But bad survival is better than dying. Any day of the week.
Ultimately, and shockingly I've seen this in the ultra-liberal (but better on the economic and global issues than the NYT-trending WSJ under Murdoch) in the Financial Times: the need to recolonize Africa "gently" to produce better "governance" or some such. [Bonus: the lack of competition in cognitive terms allows exporting of European youth with no growth opportunities at home the way the British Empire prevented social revolutions seen in France or Germany.]
Texas is a demographic disaster as a state, and will soon be Democratic voting. The future of the GOP is in places like Wisconsin and even Michigan.
I think it's a safe bet that the populations of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula will turn black and browner over the next century. But it's hard to imagine that that will be the end of it—the UN predicts that a Sub-Saharan population of 3 billion by 2100, and that is assuming a substantial birth-rate decline.
Absent some sort of ideological protection, I would assume that they'll be washing-up pretty much everywhere but Papua New Guinea. But how many where? Historically, it takes more than economic asymmetry between two countries to move millions from the poor country to the rich. Either the two are neighbors, or they have some sort of historic relationship. Besides the old colonial powers, I don't know any likely candidates.
I fear a steadily increasing flow to the Anglo-Sphere due to the reach of our language. Perhaps China will inflict them on Southeast Asia and use the region as a source of cheap labor. Hopefully, the whites of Latin America, with incentive, will immigrate to a Europe that's turned ethno-nationalist, and they can be replaced in Latin America by a massive influx of Africans (C'mon Brazil, show that you're a world power, and recruit millions of black Africans to your shores).
Steve, you ask where will they go?
Why to Club Swagga of course.
For those not already familiar with Club Swagga, it was set up in Finland as a venue for sub saharan males to meet up with young Finnish females.. Quite popular and with quite an interent presence
Someone asked, what is motivating the desire to replace the historic American nation and its demographic?
here and here. John Derbyshire noted that "people did not complain" or riot in the streets over population replacement. That's because a whole lot of people like it. We call those people ... women. Not all women, certainly, but overall that's the trend. It hits the "Nice White Lady" (tm Steve Sailer) notes, the moral status mongering, and the relative higher levels of testosterone (and lower intelligence which in men is generally "icky" being highly correlated with abstract thinking and orientation towards objects not sexy social dominance of people). Look at the Goldsmith divorce. Not even a Jewish merged set of dynasties could keep things together when a "sexy" Rapper with a criminal history from New Orleans entered the picture. The Rothschild gal may have been the daughter of a great Jewish financial dynasty but the lure of that thuggy sexy dominance was too much. Not even open Lesbians are immune from that desire, after all Michaels could have with her partner adopted any sort of boy.
You don't see too many guys agitating for importing an underclass or wanting to be third-class against a non-White majority.
I can tell you that the Chinese won't take them, and the Israelis sure as hell won't. It will probably be up to the Europeans, including Canada, Australia, and the United States, to help out.
"America is getting to look a lot more like Texas, and that’s one trend that I hope continues."
- Why is that I find it more and more difficult to tell the difference between neoconservatives and liberals?
"While fertility is low in much of the world, it remains extraordinarily high in Sub-Saharan African. Where all those people will end up is one of the major questions of the 21st Century"
The projected population of Sub Saharan Africa in the not to distant future is expected to one billion!
Where are we going to put these people? In a neighborhood near you?
Maybe Hinsdale, Wilmette, Kenilworth, Winnetka, Lake Forest Illinois?
Wow look how may 100 meter track and football champions you will
get!
Don't forget you will have have to increase the rolls on the police department as the crime rate will accelerate with rapes, assaults and strong arm robberies and shootings will look like Chicago statistics in a normal week!
"And thousands of Nigerians who have gone into petroleum engineering and geology which are probably two of the most desirable degrees to earn right now."
- Now that conjures up a story for iSteve- how the great African messiah is fouling things up for the cream of Africa's crop here in the US.
What a basketcase this guy is. Only whites are crazy enough to cheer their dispossession.
How many years is Frost projecting? Chairman Obama? Don't hold your breath.
"America is getting to look a lot more like Texas, and that’s one trend that I hope continues."
Texas is a state where whites are a minority. They still hold political power - and vote Republican. Of course the only reason whites still hold political power is that they are a majority of people of voting age. Whites are massively outnumbered in the under 20 age cohort.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice that in another twenty years at most, Texas will go the way of California. But apparently it does take a little more intellectual horsepower than a quack like Barone can muster.
John Derbyshire noted that "people did not complain" or riot in the streets over population replacement. That's because a whole lot of people like it. We call those people ... women.
Whiskey, you ignorant slut!
Texas is a demographic disaster, becoming Democrat will thr cherry in the cake...
Hmm, well it seems most of them are coming here and won't be welcomed in other places, such as Israel where they realize a mixed people is not desired by the vast majority of the people. Read this to understand.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/israel-enacts-law-allowing-authorities-to-detain-illegal-migrants-for-up-to-3-years-1.434127
Speaking of China and Africans, don't forget that the Nanjing Riots of 1988, which helped lead to the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, began with protests over African students.
The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 came 4 months after the anti-African protests in Nanjing and some elements of the Nanjing protests were still evident, such as banners proclaiming "Stop Taking Advantage of Chinese Women".
There's no more upside to having Africans settle in your country than there is to having African-Americans settle in your neighborhood. It's a net-negative for non-blacks everywhere. Surely that much is obvious. Whether some people believe it should be actually mentioned or not is beside the point.
Back in the 2000s there was steady growth of Africans in China but that trend probably came to a halt in 2009. There was a riot after a visa crackdown and I think that changed the view of authorities towards mass immigration of African traders.
http://www.amnation.com/vfr/archives/013991.html
Wasn't it around a year ago here that we were discussing Sudanese refugees in Omaha, almost invariably drawn to the gang lifestyle by the second generation?
Of course Whiskey never cites the General Social Survey in his proclamations on women...because it would show he's wrong.
I'm glad at least a few people are beginning to wonder what is going to happen to Africa's excess population, rather than just assuming that Africa will magically undergo a "demographic transition" and stop growing at some conveniently undefined point in the future.
I've been wondering about this for years. The current projection is that by 2100 Sub-Saharan Africa will account for over a third of the world's population (3.6 billion out of 10.1 billion), and of course most of them will be desperate to get the hell out. What's worse, I strongly suspect that in 2100 the 3.6 billion will still be rapidly growing! If Africans succeed in flooding into a world where other populations are collapsing, they could end up demographically overwhelming everyone, and dragging the entire world down into African style chaos. Combine that with resource depletion ("peak everything" -- I'm less worried about global warming, but that might also be a factor), and you are looking at a genuine end-of-civilization scenario.
So, let's make some bets on how long it will take, after the inevitable population crash, for blacks to rebuild civilization in a resource depleated world. (My money's going on "Never.")
Isn't the more likely outcome that anticipated by Galt and one which is playing out already as we speak - the Chinese entering Africa in huge numbers and bringing development and prosperity with them? Perhaps this will give less incentive for formerly impoverished sub-saharans to migrate abroad.
Whiskey said,
"Look at the Goldsmith divorce. Not even a Jewish merged set of dynasties could keep things together when a "sexy" Rapper with a criminal history from New Orleans entered the picture. The Rothschild gal may have been the daughter of a great Jewish financial dynasty but the lure of that thuggy sexy dominance was too much."
I thought that the marriage of Zuckerberg to the smart, but average-looking Chinese woman was the ultimate Whiskey story until I read about this: the ultimate dynastic rich, old money Jewish marriage undone by an affair with a thug black rapper.
Seriously, what has Whiskey done to deserve God's wrath?!
Whiskey is right. (cough, cough...)
Frost's thesis is wildly improbable. Galtons famous letter the The Times of 1875 is more like it. Across Africa today there are entire tent camps of Chinese working 24/7 on contruction and mining projects.
Africans in China? Well in immigration we tend to talk of 'push' factors and 'pull' factors. Push factors are a given for sub-Sarahrans; but where are the pull factors? Here are a few reverse pull factors: Unreconstructed Chinese racism; lack of generous welfare; lack of first world labour pay and conditions.
It's a special type of sub-Saharan who takes on those odds; rarer than Derb's IWSBs, I would have thought.
Gilbert P
http://youtu.be/zbDu0-K9cPk
What a country!
What do the Asians do with the refugees who manage to slip in? South Koreans complain about the illegal Mongolian immigrants who come to work at their factories and sell overpriced socks at subway stations, always claiming, "My sister made these, so I could sell them and get an education", even though the socks are stamped "made in China". And yet, the disgruntled Koreans provide the illegal Mongolian children with free education and free meals all the while grumbling that the little Mongolians get bad grades and aren't as well behaved as their own children.
I've also seen a bunch of Nigerian refugees lining the streets of Itaewon, in central Seoul, whistling, cat calling and even trying to grab Korean women by their arms. All the Koreans I've talked to had openly disliked this turn of events. So what are they doing about it? What will they do when (not if) more refugees arrive?
Oh, but I got to say, those Nigerian refugees sure do form handsome couples with the Russian prostitutes, as can be observed at the near by Russian Hill (or as the military refer to it- Hooker Hill). I always wondered what the locals think when they see these huge, dark, bling-laden, violent looking men with the tall, lily-white, vulgarly dressed, brightly made up women in platinum wigs or with bleached hair. It must confirm all the worst stereotypes they have about the foreigners.
Knowing East Asia quite well, the idea that China will accept hordes of blacks from SS Africa, under any circumstances whatsoever, is patently ludicrous. Nor will anyone else.
No-one wants them, and no-one needs them.
They are going to have to struggle within their own continent, but wherever they migrate within Africa, there is violence and black-on-black xenophobia; check out the attitude (and actions) of black South Africans in respect of Zimbabweans, Somalis etc.
There have to be limits, and even the psychiatric Left will draw the line at mass immigration of superfluous African population.
The only kind solution is to turn the whole of SS Africa into a custodial continent with supervised birth control, extreme as it sounds.
Don't worry. The Bilderberg has a plan.
Anon.
"Where will the Sub-Saharans go?"
Why do they have to go any where? They can stay where they are.
Where they will go? The question is moot as already they are everywhere. You have large settlements in every big city, even Cairo and Athens and Buenos Aires. Not to speak of London and Amsterdam.
Barone is a TV personality. That is his talent. He doesn't chase viewers away and therefore he gets invited back.
Accuracy, truth and facts are not required in television. The viewers are in a trance. If a TV personality 'works the trance' then success follows.
Dershowitz has high IQ and talent as a lawyer but he does not know how to 'work the trance'. He chases viewers away and doesn't get invited back.
That just sounds awful Maya. Did you really see something like that in person?
Blacks in China suffer from a poor reputation - both amongst the Chinese and within the expat community, and the Chinese discriminate against them unthinkingly and horrendously.
In the major cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen they are the chief source of illicit drugs for the expatriate community. Go to Beijing's Sanlitun nightclub and bar area, and you will see surly sub-Saharan youths congregating indiscretely in shadowy areas to peddle their wares. Bars and nightclubs in Shanghai invariably play host to token groups of Nigerian drug dealers.
I briefly dated a Nigerian girl in Shenzhen who was frequently driven to a state of fever-pitch hysteria by the discrimination she encountered in the PRC - during customs procedures at the airport in particular. She would also constantly go on about how my mother would never accept her as a prospective daughter-in-law - which though I vehemently denied it at the time, was very true.
"Why is that I find it more and more difficult to tell the difference between neoconservatives and liberals?"
Because all along you have been too dim-witted to realize that there was never, never any difference between neoconservatives and liberals.
HINT: They both play for the same team, and that team isn't your team. And deep down, they both want something that isn't exactly what they say aloud they want.
FORTUNE: Hewer of wood and drawer of water. Oh, wait, you've already been doing that all along, it seems.
"The projected population of Sub Saharan Africa in the not to distant future is expected to one billion!
Where are we going to put these people?"
It is not "our" problem to "put" these people anywhere.
They can stay exactly where they are. And if they run out of things to eat, they can eat each other. Not like they haven't done it before.
"Knowing East Asia quite well, the idea that China will accept hordes of blacks from SS Africa, under any circumstances whatsoever, is patently ludicrous. Nor will anyone else."
East Asia 101. Heard of Mao and peasant revolution? No way EA accepts large numbers of blacks.
Blogosphere puke link.
Nigerian drug dealers in Shanghai alleys? My respect for the Triads just took a dive.
Gilbert P.
“Nigerian drug dealers in Shanghai alleys? My respect for the Triads just took a dive.”
It was more a case of the police just averting their eyes from their criminal activities, since they almost exclusively involved the foreign community. The police do similar with the Uighurs as well, who sling hash and pickpocket commuters on the subway with significant impunity.
Its also very easy for authoritarian countries with weak rule of law like China to crush native organized crime groups when they wish to (i.e. Bo Xilai and Chongqing), and triad groups in the big cosmopolitan cities really ain't a thing.
Sorry.
I simply cannot believe Peter Frost.
I know the Chinese, and one thing I can definitely, definitely unequivocally, bet- the- house on it, say about them is "they are not chumps".
You can also use that little saw "they are not chumps" about Israelis - and extrapolate Israeli attitudes to immigration that.
Unfortunately,despite all the bally-ho you read on this site about whites being so wonderful, I could never make the 'chump' statement about European descended populations. Possibly mediterranean types like southern Italians have a bit more native cunning and shrewdness about them than northern Europeans, the same can be said about east Europeans ot the Irish, but, unfortunately, the Italians seem to have fallen for the immigration racket just as badly as the English - something I thought I would never see.
Frost's thesis is wildly improbable.
The age pyramid is the Chinese destiny. Nothing else matters.
African population growth rates are, to a large degree, a function of foreign aid - food, medicine, technology. As America and Europe tighten our wallets, our foreign aid budgets will shrink. Africa will be beset by famines and plagues, for which the West will increasingly do less and less. Its population cannot grow at such rates much longer. Africa has near-First World population densities while lacking the economy that makes such densities sustainable.
Americans will never again tolerate large-scale immigration from Africa. That ended with the slave trade. Europeans will slam the door shut, as well. Mass immigration frm Africa will cause the blowback we assumed Latin illegal immigration would cause.
Look at the meltdown in Europe, and the stumbling economy here in the US. The West is just teetering along now. Mass immigration won't be tolerated for much longer. Eventually voters will figure out that mass immigration is a fraud perpetuated by the rich against the poor and working class - the contradictory claim by big business that we have a "labor shortage" even as salaries shrink and long-term unemployment ballons.
Ron Woo,
Interesting Stuff. I have no idea if the Nigerians in Korea were drug dealers. I actually never dared enter a single club in Itaewon, so i don't know what went on in there exactly. The scary looking Nigerians, the Russian prostitutes and other such people hung around those places, and it all just seemed a little too hard core for me. My entertainment district of choice was the artsy/punky Hongdae- the area around the fine arts and design university that was a hot spot for Korean hipster kids, members of different subcultures and young western foreigners.
As for drugs, it was explained to me before I left for Korea that illegal substances were a really, really big deal over there, and any transgression is punished severily. I also witnessed a fellow English teacher get caught with pot and spend 2 months in jail while his parents were running around trying to get him deported back to the States, so I decided to not even think about anything of the sort while in Korea. I heard that smoking a joint could earn one a death sentence in PRC, and the expats still risk it?
"That just sounds awful Maya. Did you really see something like that in person?'
Only every time I found myself in Itaewon after 5:00pm, which was about twice a month for a year and a half. You should've see the elderly drag queen Korean hookers trying to lure drunk American soldiers. I wonder if they ever actually succeeded.
Melykin,
Why do they have to go any where? They can stay where they are.
Bravo. Outstanding. Ten out of ten.
There are some 10 million square miles of sub-Saharan Africa (compare Russia: 6.5 million). I think that's ample room to move around in.
I was watching TV the other night and saw one of those "sponsor a third world child" commercials that Sally Struthers used to push. But whereas in the past there were many African children in these commercials, there was not a single African face to be seen in this one. In fact, if I had to guess I'd say these kids all come from Myanmar or the Phillipines. Perhaps this is a sign that the West has collectively lost its patience with Africa, and its interest in helping them. Perhaps after two decades of Rwandas, Congos, Zimbabwes, and Sierra Leones, the West has rightly decided to give up on them, in spite of public proclamations to the contrary.
" I'm glad at least a few people are beginning to wonder what is going to happen to Africa's excess population, rather than just assuming that Africa will magically undergo a "demographic transition" and stop growing at some conveniently undefined point in the future.
I've been wondering about this for years. The current projection is that by 2100 Sub-Saharan Africa will account for over a third of the world's population (3.6 billion out of 10.1 billion), and of course most of them will be desperate to get the hell out. What's worse, I strongly suspect that in 2100 the 3.6 billion will still be rapidly growing! If Africans succeed in flooding into a world where other populations are collapsing, they could end up demographically overwhelming everyone, and dragging the entire world down into African style chaos. Combine that with resource depletion ("peak everything" -- I'm less worried about global warming, but that might also be a factor), and you are looking at a genuine end-of-civilization scenario."
That's why the most elegant solution to all of this is to stop funding various forms of aid to Africa. Standing on its own two feet means having no more manna falling from the heavens, and the populations stop growing. Why does it make sense that an American should pay their tax dollars and charity to support children in Africa when they can't afford to have children of their own here?
McGillicuddy said:
the UN predicts that a Sub-Saharan population of 3 billion by 2100, and that is assuming a substantial birth-rate decline.
It won't happen, because they won't be able to feed themselves. The population of Sub-Saharan Africa will stop growing and remain stable because of famines, genocidal wars, epidemics, etc, much sooner.
Millions of Sub-Saharan African will continue to emigrate to flee the chaos and ruin the countries where they will settle, as they are already doing, but it won't have much demographic effect on Africa itself. European migration to the New World didn't depopulate Europe. Quite the reverse, it may have prevented famines and wars which would have destroyed the European economies.
Because of selective abortion China has tens of millions of excess young males who have virtually no hope of ever getting married. They'll become homicidal if they see black men dating scarce Chinese girls. Beware of desperate beta men (Virginia Tech...)
It would be weird if selective abortion and infanticide actually saved China from miscegenation with African immigrants by making Chinese females very, very precious.
What many people fail to consider: we're past peak oil (cheap oil - below 50$ a barrel - is a thing of the past), and probably not very far from peak food (cheap food depends on cheap energy). Soon there will be no place for migrants to go, because every country will have either just enough to feed its population, or not enough. I can't imagine masses of low IQ Sub-Saharans finding a niche in such a world.
"Frost is an idiot"
Whiskey,
When I wrote that post (2 years ago), there were 100,000 Africans in Guangzhou. Now, there are 200,000, and African communities are developing elsewhere in China.
The Chinese government cannot easily stop this immigration because it wants to maintain friendly relations with African governments (to obtain access to African resources, mainly oil but other commodities as well).
Another factor is that the current Chinese leadership is committed only to territorial nationalism, not to ethnonationalism. They aren't the sort of HBD-savvy folks that some commenters here seem to think. Ethnonationalism is actually stronger among overseas Chinese, and they're the ones who seem to be the most interested in HBD and blogs like iSteve.
They'll go wherever the governmental authorities are too weak or too befuddled to stop it. This means the USA, particularly if some Obama-Holder clones are running the show.
"Anonymous scoobius dubious said...
"Why is that I find it more and more difficult to tell the difference between neoconservatives and liberals?"
Because all along you have been too dim-witted to realize that there was never, never any difference between neoconservatives and liberals.
HINT: They both play for the same team, and that team isn't your team. And deep down, they both want something that isn't exactly what they say aloud they want.
FORTUNE: Hewer of wood and drawer of water. Oh, wait, you've already been doing that all along, it seems."
- Ah yes, pearls of wisdom from one with the truly brilliant tag "Scoobius dubious". It seems I was too dim to realize that the neocons a few decades ago put forward the best president of the 20th Century who helped collapse the highest aspiration of the left, Communism.
FORTUNE: Go back to middle school and take some history lessons. Then go back to 3rd grade and learn some manners.
This article reminds me of Kevin Myers infamous editorial in the Irish Independent criticizing aid to Africa.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/writing-what-i-should-have-written-so-many-years-ago-1437779.html
'Americans will never again tolerate large-scale immigration from Africa.
'
Americans are sheep. If Jewish elite pushes it, we will accept it. Or else, we 'racist'.
In fact large scale black immigration is already under way.
By 2030 Houston may be the second largest city in the US, surpassing LA! It is probably catching up on Chicago as we speak!
What happened to the liberal argument that turning South Africa and Rhodesia over to blacks would create paradise down there which would take care of most of Southern Africa? I'm stuck thinking that liberals never believed their own tripe.
The conservatives that like Texas live in nice burbs like Sugarland and Plano. In Sugarland I was surprise to find that one of the high schools was about 20 percent asian and only 8 percent hispanic and most kids white. Republicans like Chuck Devore moved to a nice burb he even live in a nice Burb when he live in Orange County-he live in Irvine which was only 9 percent hispanic. I live it when an ex-Orange County person who live in Huntington Beach stated their was no graffni in Houston. Houston is about 41 percent hispanic and about 18 percent black, so I believe there is graffni. A lot of the righwing Repubs who love Texas is that in Texas you can afford to get away from the Mexican areas easier than Calif since its cheaper to live. But just because its business friendly and in the case of Rick Perrry too business friendly doesn't mean its doesn't have its problems because of demographics.
Well, one thing I notice what Barone is mentioning it is possible that Mexico which is gradually changing and whose birthrate is dropping could sent less folks. I doubt that Calif will dropped in population in this decade but if the Brown flight starts just as the white flight had to chepaer States then in 2025 Calif could experiance the first dropped in Hispanics and Calif could peak out around 50 percent Hispanics and Hispanics might move to greener pastures as second and third don't want to live with as many relatives as their immigrant folks. For example, the last developments of south Orange County are in the whiter areas than the hispanic or asian and one near Mission Viejo and San Juan will take 30 years. Mexicans will stay and buy the older houses and work construcation and some will do the service jobs but I think around 2025 or so whites that are now thinking that expensive places like New York or San Fran are hip might be intestested in burbs again out there that are above the national average.
If the Chinese were really that anti-African, wouldn't they just deport all of them - every last one? Are they there as cheap labor? Do they work for even less pay than the Chinese do?
"Hell, the Chinese would kill a million of their own people at a blink, you think they're going to care about how Africans get treated?"
Tell us that story again, Granddad!"
"In fact, I think that we will see a rapid collapse in African populations once the Chinese fully take over there,"
And when exactly will this happen, 20 years you say? Gosh, I guess that means they'll be full taking over Taiwan next week?
"In the major cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen they are the chief source of illicit drugs for the expatriate community."
LMAO! How did they get the drugs in? they ain't got and no planes!
The 'psychriatric left' as one poster so aptly termed them (a brucie bonus* to the poster, I will continue to use that neat little Swiftian/Shakesparean phrase in my manifold comments, and hope the poster doesn't mind me trying to usurp some credit for the superlative wordsmithery), really are that unbelievably, unfathomly dumb. No I'm not exaggerrating for the sake of satire, comedy or dramatic effect, they really and truly are that brainlessly sub-nematode ganglion dumb.
They really do want open borders (open borders means exactly that), with the future 3 billion sub-saharan Africans. Nothing you nor I can say will convince them otherwise, you're falling on deaf ears.
Just a word of warning to you, and a bit of avuncular advice - read that NYT piece Steve posted a few weeks back by some nutty professor, which Steve initially thought was a satirical oax from The Onion.
*Brucie Bonus - English phrase, late twentieth century, coined by much loved veteran showman, comedian, singer, dancer etc Bruce Forsyth, in actual fact one of the greatest living Englishmen of the present era.
My Jehovah!, the article was bad enough, but take a gander at some of the comments to Barone's article. We are screwed, as these idiots are allowed to vote for politicians on the federal and local level.
An important debate appears to be between those who wish to preserve our "Scotch-Irisho-Christian" culture and those who will take a hard-working immigrant (I'm guessing Latino, not Islamofascist) over a "Scotch-Irisho-Christian" welfare queen anyday.
Oh, and we should provide a safe haven for Christian refugees from Europe. As the late, sainted Dr. King would have pointed out, we are a Christian nation.
Just as with the gay identity politics, the dregs of the GOP are clueless, utterly clueless.
Matthew believes "Americans will never again tolerate large-scale immigration from Africa. That ended with the slave trade. Europeans will slam the door shut, as well."
Based on track records so far, there is little reason to believe this. Why would our one-world government, our social work Establishment, our pseudo-compassionate churches, and our self-hating whites change their tune? Because billions, rather than millions, of sub-Saharan refugees are knocking at the door?
Don't expect any pushback from neocons or libertarians. It's an article of faith that there are no limits to growth. Billions more minimum-wage employees! Billions more Walmart shoppers! Whoo-eee!
Every time I read some demographer assuring us that our future is large-scale immigration, and the only question is where it will come from, I find myself imagining China running Africa, using Africans for coolie labor, and instituting a one-child policy for the Africans. Every time, I feel less guilt about imagining it.
"Only every time I found myself in Itaewon after 5:00pm, which was about twice a month for a year and a half. You should've see the elderly drag queen Korean hookers trying to lure drunk American soldiers. I wonder if they ever actually succeeded."
Funny, I been through Itaewon a few times and never seen any of what you mentioned. You must frequent a couple of hidden away bars there.
Americans will never again tolerate large-scale immigration from Africa. That ended with the slave trade. Europeans will slam the door shut, as well.
Based on track records so far, there is little reason to believe this. Why would our one-world government, our social work Establishment, our pseudo-compassionate churches, and our self-hating whites change their tune? Because billions, rather than millions, of sub-Saharan refugees are knocking at the door?
Don't expect any pushback from neocons or libertarians. It's an article of faith that there are no limits to growth. Billions more minimum-wage employees! Billions more Walmart shoppers! Whoo-eee!
Every time I read some demographer assuring us that our future is large-scale immigration, and the only question is where it will come from, I find myself imagining China running Africa, using Africans for coolie labor, and instituting a one-child policy for the Africans. Every time, I feel less guilt about imagining it.
What a basketcase this guy is. Only whites are crazy enough to cheer their dispossession.
Ellen Sandler, writing for the Jewish Journal, has explained that Barone is a Jewish name:
The characters on the show are named Barone -- obviously an Italian name, but in Italy, it is, in fact, a Jewish name.
"Americans will never again tolerate large-scale immigration from Africa. That ended with the slave trade. Europeans will slam the door shut, as well. Mass immigration frm Africa will cause the blowback we assumed Latin illegal immigration would cause."
We've already imported more africans under 1965, than under slavery.
"Funny, I been through Itaewon a few times and never seen any of what you mentioned. You must frequent a couple of hidden away bars there."
This was several years ago. Although the path that I'd usually take, from my friend's apartment to the subway station did go through alleys which is where, I believe, the hard core clubs are. Though, in my opinion, most clubs and bars in Itaewon are rather seedy and dirty.
I am not optimistic about the future. The Chinese and the Europeans will tolerate black immigration in the end. It has nothing to do with national character or politics, it is simply a question of demographics. China and most of Europe are aging rapidly. Unless a country has a fairly young population it will have a very hard time keeping outsiders on the outside. There will just be far more blacks trying to get in then there will be locals organizing to keep them out.
China and most of Europe are aging rapidly. Unless a country has a fairly young population it will have a very hard time keeping outsiders on the outside.
Why so?
Americans will never again tolerate large-scale immigration from Africa. That ended with the slave trade. Europeans will slam the door shut, as well.
There are tons of black Africans migrating to the United States, from East and West Africa and from Somalia and Ethiopia. Also a lot of black immigrants are here from the Caribbean, including Haiti.
The characters on the show are named Barone -- obviously an Italian name, but in Italy, it is, in fact, a Jewish name.
In the Anglosphere, Barone is a Welsh name, like where Sasha Baron Cohen's family is from.
Whiskey : "The Rothschild gal may have been the daughter of a great Jewish financial dynasty but the lure of that thuggy sexy dominance was too much"
I think it all depends on the individual daughter, and this one's a bit of a raver. She looks, as someone said of Ted Hughes' second wife Assia Wevill, like
a) bed
b) trouble
The 'psychriatric left' as one poster so aptly termed them, really are that unbelievably, unfathomly dumb. No I'm not exaggerrating for the sake of satire, comedy or dramatic effect, they really and truly are that brainlessly sub-nematode ganglion dumb.
You don't have to convince me, feller. I've thought this about white leftists (particularly your kind, brit leftists) for the longest time. But I never realized just how deeply their delusions run ("No way, no one could be that stupid"). Religious nuts have nothing on them. Truth be told, if I thought were was any genuine longterm upside in any of their delusions for me I would pissing myself laughing right now at what spectacularly sick puppies they are. Sadly, there is no such upside.
Don't expect any pushback from neocons or libertarians. It's an article of faith that there are no limits to growth. Billions more minimum-wage employees! Billions more Walmart shoppers! Whoo-eee!
Hang on, you're confusing two different issues here. For all practical purposes, there really aren't any limits on economic growth, say for the next, oh, dunno, 1000, or 10,000 or 100,000 thousand years. There are plenty of "limiting factors" but not actual overarching limits per se, that would limit the total amount of economic expansion possible. (It helps if you stop thinking in terms of factories and "things" in order to best grasp this.) Immigration is a separate issue entirely. Sure, enthusiasts for the former tend, at least nowadays, to be enthusiasts for the latter, but it's important to keep the distinction in mind. If we don't, and opponents of growth (like the "Occupy" loons) come to rule the roost, we'll still have immigration but there may not even be the (oftentimes mental) escape hatch of economic opportunity. Given the choice, I'd take the lunacy of the neocon/libertarian brand over the lunacy of the liberal/progressive/leftist brand ANY day.
"Anonymous Mr. Anon said...
If the Chinese were really that anti-African, wouldn't they just deport all of them - every last one?"
Aaaaaah, goood dialectic, my son. Here's a quick answer for the 11 other literates who read this blog; they aren't.
""Funny, I been through Itaewon a few times and never seen any of what you mentioned. You must frequent a couple of hidden away bars there."
This was several years ago...."
Are you sure it wasn't several years in the future, Maya, like maybe something you saw on Scyfy Network at 3:00 AM?
"Anonymous said...
I was watching TV the other night and saw one of those "sponsor a third world child" commercials that Sally Struthers used to push. But whereas in the past there were many African children in these commercials, there was not a single African face to be seen in this one. In fact, if I had to guess I'd say these kids all come from Myanmar or the Phillipines. Perhaps this is a sign that the West has collectively lost its patience with Africa, and its interest in helping them. Perhaps after two decades of Rwandas, Congos, Zimbabwes, and Sierra Leones, the West has rightly decided to give up on them, in spite of public proclamations to the contrary."
Or perhaps the makers of the ad only put little asian kids in the commercial, but a lot of the money will still go to Africa.
"Hacienda said...
""Only every time I found myself in Itaewon after 5:00pm, which was about twice a month for a year and a half. You should've see the elderly drag queen Korean hookers trying to lure drunk American soldiers. I wonder if they ever actually succeeded.""
Funny, I been through Itaewon a few times and never seen any of what you mentioned. You must frequent a couple of hidden away bars there."
Either that, or you made it with a dude and didn't realize it.
Well, I notice that California where Obama will win is not as far as the left as he is or Jerry Brown is since even today with more white liberals and minorities the state is barely passing prop 29 to increase the sales tax. This is defintely different from what Michael Barone and the right view Calif as a hyper liberal state its just the white population doesn't relate to Repblicans who are more religous or southern is my belief. In fact the state is only passing prop 29 about 8 points better than Orange County where its losing. Republicans after Wilson screw up big time on how to handle California white voters that are really are more like San Diego county which is moderately Democratic these days and not like San Fran in spite of right wing sterotypes.
"Are you sure it wasn't several years in the future, Maya, like maybe something you saw on Scyfy Network at 3:00 AM?"
Forgive me, I don't have a clue what you're hinting at. Are you so shocked that a red lights district grew around a large military base that you're hoping I dreamed it up after eating too much cheese and watching one too many horror flicks? Or are you scandalized by the mere thought of a black Nigerian refugee pairing up with a white Russian prostitute? In that case, Truth, I urge you to consider that it's the person, not race, that is most important in such matters. We should be happy for them if they think they found their true match, you know? And don't worry, i haven't seen any black Nigerian women with Russian pimps in Korea. In fact i haven't seen any identifiable Russian pimps at all, though I did see some Nigerian women with small kids.
"Either that, or you made it with a dude and didn't realize it."
No, no, these were very obviously men and very obviously past middle age. That's what makes the memory of them so vivid. I would try not to stare as I asked myself how drunk one would have to be to not see past their wigs and garish make up. The whole thing made me think of Our Lady of the Flowers by Jean Genet, specifically the part where Divine and the other "ladies" passed from charging for their services to paying.
Interesting the white vote in So Ca is going against prop 29 the sales tax for cancer reserach. Belief it or not its the Inland Counties of San Ber and Riverside that are going against it more than Orange County. Even La great place for Dem politicans is voting slightly against it.
China and most of Europe are aging rapidly. Unless a country has a fairly young population it will have a very hard time keeping outsiders on the outside. There will just be far more blacks trying to get in then there will be locals organizing to keep them out.
Ok, I'm trying to imagine the type of "understanding" of reality that one must have in order to come up with such a nonsensical prognosis. I'm conjuring up mental imagery of hordes of Africans making their way across the rainforests and savannahs of Africa, the deserts of the middle east, and the vast steppes and mountain ranges of Asia to finally arrive at the western Chinese border.
There, at the border, the aged and outnumbered remnants of the Chinese race vainly struggle to repel the trespassing African hordes, who after their epic ten thousand mile overland journey still remain vigorous and strong due to their youth and superior physiques. Inevitably, the millions-nay, tens of millions- of marauding Africans get past the thin line of over-matched Chinese geriatrics and descend unto the great depopulated cities of China to wreak havoc upon the completely powerless Chinese nation.
^^Yeah, that doesn't look very much like actual reality, does it? You know, the reality in which African immigration to China is entirely dependent on the willingness of middle aged bureaucrats to stamp visas on African passports and thus enable said Africans to climb on a plane and land in Guangzhou or Shanghai, where they then proceed to overstay their visas. To put an end to this kind of immigration you don't need a force of young men millions strong guarding the border. You need one guy signing a piece of paper reducing the number of visas given to Africans each year.
This is true not just of China, but of Europe and every other area as well.It's laughable how delusional most people are of the way things really happen in the world. Believing that immigration is akin to a massive 100m high tsunami that CANNOT BE STOPPED is almost as ridiculous as ascribing ignorance and stupidity to be the left's motivation as opposed to what it really is, namely malice.
I think it just takes 30 years of high immigration before it does become a force that can't be stopped.
Look at Holland, Britain, and France. I doubt there is the will to stop what has been happening over the past 25 years.
And then there's America. There is no opportunity to stop it. The wave has already hit.
In Delhi, there was a construction project that actually used African guest workers in mass to build a shopping mall. Can't figure out the economics of flying in people when many locals work for very low wages.
http://www.gurgaonshoppingmalls.com/gurgaon-india.php
Well, one trend not so great in California a guest worker program and another good a bil to hit at the underground economy which has for about 40 years help illegal immirgants get jobs in Calif. Some conservatives and liberatarians who are so against any regulation are complaining but some regulation is needed people just can't hire people here illegality and not pay taxes.
A related and interesting question. Where will Indians go? By the end of this century the population is expected to reach nearly 2 billion. That means a lot of people will emigrate.
Whatever happens, it looks like the exceptionally precious fauna of Africa - the giraffes, lions, rhinos, crocodiles, buffalo, cheetahs, leopards, gorillas, chimps, bonobos, hippos and elephants - will end up as so much bushmeat. The rainforests will be reduced to charred stumps. Biodiversity. face the storm. Thanks, Africa.
Americans and Europeans will tolerate almost anything from corrupt governments so long as food stays on the table, the mortgage gets paid, and the lights stay on. And when they don't? All hell breaks loose.
We can only tolerate so many parasites. We are near full capacity of those. Some, including me, would say we're overcapacity.
Hispanics work at low wage, low value jobs. They're a net burden, but they work. Africans don't even work. They're an overwhelming burden wherever they go.
African immigration will slow, not grow. Eventually, pressing issues resonate - the light goes on in peoples' heads, taboos against discussing them fall, an the voters move en masse. It will happen with immigration sooner than you think.
It's laughable how delusional most people are of the way things really happen in the world. Believing that immigration is akin to a massive 100m high tsunami that CANNOT BE STOPPED is almost as ridiculous as ascribing ignorance and stupidity to be the left's motivation as opposed to what it really is, namely malice.
I agree. And it doesn't take geographical separation to curb immigration. A handful of well-armed men on the borders or patrolling the cities can do it. So can, probably, meaningful penalties against transgressors. Africa could be next door and these measures would work. (See what Israel is doing in terms of penalties to both immigrants and to those private citizens and public officials that facilitate their employment in Israel. That would put an end to the nonsense right quick here in the United States.)
"Biodiversity. face the storm. Thanks, Africa."
There was once "biodiversity" in Europe...now in the black forest in Germany there are cardboard cutouts of bears. Thanks, Europeans.
"A handful of well-armed men on the borders or patrolling the cities can do it. So can, probably, meaningful penalties against transgressors. Africa could be next door and these measures would work."
Maybe, so obviously someone wants them there, right?
Truth,
It's so nice to see you happy again. You were a bit crestfallen after the Trayvon fiasco. But look at you now, all smiles at the thought of African expansion.
"Biodiversity. face the storm. Thanks, Africa."
There was once "biodiversity" in Europe...now in the black forest in Germany there are cardboard cutouts of bears. Thanks, Europeans.
---------------------
Never mind Europe, but did they have to do to the Americas what they did to Europe? Thanks, indeed.
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