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A reader writes:
Not exactly what you asked for, but for what is worth the white immigrant vote can be estimated. This obviously also includes west-Europeans, Canadians and middle-easterners.
According to the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project in 2008 Obama got 54% of white immigrant two-party share, compared to 47% of the white non-immigrant share in that data-set (a bit higher than exit polls of 44%) and 77% of non-white immigrant vote. The sample of white immigrants was 214.
http://ccap.yougov.com/
though you won't be able to download it, it costs $15000 to participate, a professor gave me the data.
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5 comments:
Well, how many of those 'white' immigrants are Middle Eastern folk? I mean the U.S. census counts you as non-Hispanic white if you come from a place like Morocco, Iraq or Kazakhstan. That's obviously a huge swath of the Earth that's essentially non-European. Plus you got Israeli immigrants coming in.
About 10 % of legal immigration and 5% of total immigration to the U.S. is considered 'white' but what percentage of that 5% is actually European?
Remember, Jews vote for Obama in droves of 70-80% and Arabs are in the same ballpark.
Also, while Jews going to Israel tend to be hard-right(85% voted for Romney from Israel), Jews going to the States usually are more liberal in their natural temperament, but I don't have hard data on their voting patterns. I would guess it's still a strong majority(over 60%) but it could be below 70%.
Nevertheless, stripping out the non-European margin would be very interesting. And for 2012, without the media going gaga over Obama(at least no longer as a cult), it wouldn't surprise me if Romney won the European immigrant voting share.
The sample of white immigrants was 214.
Ridiculously small. But in any case probably indicative.
Canadians love Obama.
There are white immigrants? I thought the people who built Canada, the USA and Australia were now pretty much banned from immigrating to any of these places.
White immigrants (upper ME people included) are somewhat more noticeable in various parts of USA which don't touch Mexico or the gulf. Remember that "Hunt for Red October" guy? "I vould haf like to haf seen Montana"
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