The Economist's forecast of where the best places to be born in 2013 will eventually turn out to be is extremely Sailerian (i.e., tediously sensible): Switzerland is at the top, Nigeria at the bottom.
Does this represent a new trend toward acceptance of my philosophy of forecasting?
I predict that boring forecasts will sweep the media! (Odds that I turn out to be triumphantly correct: 0.01%; odds that my forecast is too boring to be remembered: 99.99%. Ergo: I can't lose.)
Does this represent a new trend toward acceptance of my philosophy of forecasting?
I predict that boring forecasts will sweep the media! (Odds that I turn out to be triumphantly correct: 0.01%; odds that my forecast is too boring to be remembered: 99.99%. Ergo: I can't lose.)
Posts
76 comments:
What a racist list. I'm not even in the high 70s? Come on
Things are that bad in Ukraine? They need to erect a statue of Woodrow Wilson being roasted in Hell.
Sh*tty Arabia ranked higher than, say, Hungary or Estonia???? This survey is garbage.
Peter
Why is Russia ranked so low? Sorry, but Russian women are some of the most beautiful in the world while Indian women are definitely some of the least.
"Things are that bad in Ukraine?"
Bangladesh over Ukraine? Please... this is a joke.
Anyone else think this is ridiculously bad anti-eastern european propaganda?
Ukraine, third from last: a lot of cropland, a lot of white people (but not too many per hectare), and not much chance of another world war being fought there again. Doesn't sound that awful.
If the oceans rise due to global warming, Ukraine sounds an awful lot better than Bangladesh.
The top ten selected (which include two non-white places if you are interested) are OK, though the ecology of Australia is supposed fairly fragile. After the top ten the list gets fugly.
The list doesn't appear to be comprehensive. Why isn't North Korea on the bottom?
Also, as another commentator pointed out, the Arabian peninsula countries are a disaster waiting to happen. Eventually the oil will run out, and they will be stuck with resource poor and overpopulated countries, with not exactly responsive political institutions (though some of the Gulf statelets have been making progress on that front). Plus they will have to figure out what to do with the large non-idigenous workforce they brought in. If you were born in a wealthy enough family in these places that you can go elsewhere you might be OK.
The list seems almost to have been thrown together by taking a list of per capita GDP in countries today, with a few alterations to make it not look like a direct copy. In other words, yes its garbage.
I know a fellow of a certain age with a little bit of money who got tired of his children from his first marriage not presenting him with any grandchildren to dote upon. So, three years ago he moved to Kiev, married a blonde, and is now a new father again.
Is there any frackable natural gas under Eastern Europe?
One thing I noticed is that Portugal is ranked higher than Brazil. There has been a renewed burst of Portuguese immigration to Brazil (and also Angola) because job opportunities in Portugal have become limited. Though growth is slowing in Brazil and Portugal should recover from its current crisis, no one serious believes Portugal to have better prospects than Brazil in the medium or long term.
i accept the veracity of this list unquestionably for no reason other than the fact that i am from australia
"Anyone else think this is ridiculously bad anti-eastern european propaganda?"
Maybe it's the work of the "usual suspects."
There has been a renewed burst of Portuguese immigration to Brazil (and also Angola) because job opportunities in Portugal have become limited.
I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this statistic, but supposedly 1 out of every 75 Portuguese citizens between the ages of 25 and 40 has moved (usually temporarily) to Angola.
Peter
Playa Hata Of The Year Says:
-Swiss? Hear they're unfriendly, but like Steve says, people give them cash because they are trustworthy.
-Ukraine: co-worker got busted with weed and pills there, says it's a pretty open bribe of US$4000 to get out of. Rule of law may be a problem there, partially mitigated by presence of Leia-lidded blonde billionaire broad.
-Norway? More like More Gay (lost a GF to a Norfag once, totally over it, really)
Quick: name an Australian software firm, or scientist, or Deep Thinker. Ignorance is bliss, I guess; a shallow, superficial society run by a feminist shrew.
New Zealand men are leaving and not coming back, that too being misandry hell. Kiwi drinking buddy tells me of many 18 year old girls on "antis" (antidepressants) and wide availability of steroids.
-Ireland? Come on, and I'm half Irish. Canada just inked a youth work exchange deal with them, past is prologue.
Canada? I'm writing this from Northern Canada - it was minus 28C before Halloween. Tagalog is spoken by about 10% of population - weird.
I think if this were market driven, USA would be #2 just after Switzerland & before Singapore. You just don't see many Americans emigrating.
Israel is ranked too highly for obvious reasons.
Japan should be higher. Costa Rica I felt most comfortable in out of a dozen countries visited, should be higher. Slovenia I think should be higher.
LOL @ South Africa at 53, more like 5.3 E^27
The MezoAmericans (Ticas of Costa Rica excluded, natch) are a murderous people, have you seen the stats?
Venezuela is wealthy and has an SUV driving middle class, should be higher.
Colombia...nice place, ranked about right. Mexico seems too high.
I wonder where the Caribbean micro-states like St. Kitts & Nevis, Barbados, and Grenada would rank. Verrrry beautiful places & one could do worse than lime there.
You wouldn't have to worry about libertarian hackers robbing your city's lifeblood if you lived in the Uke. That would be a relief for you Steve.
Anyone else think this is ridiculously bad anti-eastern european propaganda?
The Economist and Anglo-American mainstream media generally are anti-Eastern European/Russian. Especially since the drive to neo-liberalize E. Europe/Russia was stalled in the late 90s/early 2000s.
I agree there is an anti-eastern euro vibe to this list. It might be that those countries are hold outs with their orthodox faith, anti-immigration stances and flat tax rates.
If Mexico ranks so high, why have millions been leaving there for decades?
The 1988 list is interesting:
http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2012/11/articles/body/where_to_be_born_in_1988.jpg
Surprisingly, South Korea was ranked 10th in '88, above countries like Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Finland, New Zealand, etc.
The Soviet Union was ranked 21st, above Denmark.
Switzerland is about right, but the Nordic countries are drastically overrated. The Eastern European countries look underrated.
I echo what the other commenters said; for having basically the most beautiful women in the world, Russia and Ukraine are mighty low on the list.
Also, why only 80 countries? It says in the methodology they included 130 so I don't see why they can't publish the rest rather than making me traipse all over the Internet looking. I want to know if Haiti is last or not, dammit.
small, white and homogeneous==>the perfect recipe for low factionalization. Fewer factions == more unity among the majority electorate. More unity means they share more common interests, meaning that it is easier for the majority to elect and hold accountable elected representatives. That means that the majority have a greater degree of control over their government.
This is the core principle of white democracy.
Funny thing is, that even though this idea is at the core of the documents that were seminal in the creation of the USA, i.e., federalist paper 10, Madison's secret notes to the constitutional convention, and Madison's 'divide et impera' letter to Jefferson, I appear to be one of a handful of people in the USA to know about this sort of thing.
Tell me americans are rational. Go ahead and tell me. But you would be wasting your breath.
Anyway, the most important factor in quality of life for citizens is the degree of unity and corresponding degree of control over their own goverment, which equates to the degree of democracy. All other factors pale in consideration, in general.
Yes its lucky for a baby to be born in Ireland in 2013,(#12),but its equally lucky for a tyke to be born Irish ANYWHERE. Does this table take that into account?
In the email I attempted to hint at the problematic conceit in this past-performance-to-results "forecast" when fertility rates of the highest & lowest ranked are going in opposite directions excepting Rus/Ukr., so only guarantee for those born in one of the top 10 is that they'll be relatively unique snowflakes. Hatching near 1923 Buenos Aires or 1953 Cape Town would have been considered a pretty good deal.
I wonder where the Caribbean micro-states like St. Kitts & Nevis, Barbados, and Grenada would rank
^ This is what I was trying to say, in a nutshell. The Economist's stab at "nationality evaluation" is like being further down the cave wall and observing the chained people who are watching the shadows from the fire, with much of the smoke wafting your way.
Related, Measuring Happiness: The 40 Happiest Places
how was this list even calculated in all fairness? cuba > hungary? wtf?
O/T
Steve, BBC Radio just produced a program about the British Welfare State on the 70th anniversary of the Beveridge report.
I think this is the kind of thing you might be interested in.
Listen to it HERE.
Nigeria.
Regarding Ukraine, I just visited my ancestral shtetl (village). Right there in the heart of Europe, folks are still riding around with horses and wagons, not for fun but because they can't afford anything else. When you do see a car, it is usually an ex-Soviet car (Lada) that is 25+ years old. I've seen the business directory for the town for 1925 and there were all sorts of small businesses (owned by Jews and Poles) - a leather tannery, an grain mill, a bakery, etc. Now the only business in town is a little corner grocery bodega type place and the collective farm where everyone works (or not). The national pastime is drinking.
Yes, these people are white but they ain't that bright. They were always ruled by someone else and they stuck to the peasant subsistence farming, which was right about their level. There's a reason why their rulers invited the Jews in to form a merchant class - the locals were clearly not up to it. Not all white people are created equal.
By the way, Poland right next door was doing considerably better - crossing the border was like going from the US to Mexico.
Warren Buffett, probably the world’s most successful investor, has said that anything good that happened to him could be traced back to the fact that he was born in the right country, the United States, at the right time (1930).
So, Warren wants to destroy the very thing that made his great life possible.
Italy over the UK? Surpasso again! Who knew?
This is clearly correct. Switzerland is much closer to Canada than Nigeria is.
This is clearly correct. Switzerland is much closer to Canada than Nigeria is.
Moynihan had it right.
Perhaps the authors of the list had the unfortunate experience to encounter some Russians during their holidays. That is enough to sour just about anyones opinion.
Check out some of the comments in this article
Anyone else think this is ridiculously bad anti-eastern european propaganda?
Nah, it's more simply that The Economist is a steaming pile of crap. People on the right tend to respect it because... well, when you get down to it, because it's not Newsweek or Time. That obviously is not really saying very much at all.
Yeah, the prospects of Algeria, Indonesia and El Salvador are just so much brighter than Russia's. Riiiight.
Ukraine would be an interesting country to learn more about.
I wouldn't think that they'd be all that dumb, what with the neighboring Russians and Poles having extremely respectable average IQs. But Lynn had to estimate the Ukrainian IQ and I'm not aware of another source for it.
And the Ukrainian GDP per capita at PPP is less than half that of Russia or Poland. Not sure if that means anything about Ukrainian intelligence.
If you compare this with the 1988 list, you'll notice that back in 1988 the large Western nation-states (i.e. France, Germany, US, Italy, etc.) plus the large nation-states Japan and S. Korea, along with the small polity Hong Kong, ranked at the top, above the small Western nation-states and Singapore. In the 2013 list, the order roughly reversed, with the smaller Western nation-states now ranking at the top ahead of the large Western nation-states.
What explains this general switch in places? Change in methodology? Or was there something structural to the larger nation-states to make them drop places?
Maybe it's the work of the "usual suspects."
Naahhh.
Nothing to see here.
Move along, now, move along.
ireland too high, japan too low.
should definitely be a penalty for really small nations. you're stuck there if you're born there, and then, if you want to go do anything, you have to leave. how good is the country if you HAVE to leave to go anything? it can't be that good.
straight up lack of opportunity has to be taken into account. that's one of the things which keeps the US in the running even thought it's declining on average. there's just such much more to do in bigger nations, so much more opportunity. there's just so much you can never do in ireland.
for this reason you're much better off being born japanese than being born irish. or any combination of big nation citizens versus small nation citizens.
Brazil - 37
Mexico - 39
South Africa - 53
Russia - 72
Does not compute.
I would've thought Russia would've done better than in the gutter with the African countries. Seems Putin needs to step up.
Steve,
Both Poland and Romania seem to have frackable oil or gas reserves, but development is really only just starting now.
We'll need to wait 5 years to have a reliable idea of how big those reserves are.
Interesting the #1 country is Switzerland, which has a founding fathers style non-interventionist foreign policy. The exact opposite of the one America has. How much different might America be if it had been able to avoid the civil war, stayed out of WW1 & 2 (the latter only possible because of American intervention in the first, btw) and not gone to Korea and Vietnam?
Azerbaijan over Kazakhstan? As Borat might say, "Jak se mas!"
(Yes, yes, I know.)
What about the Indian wars?
Just think if we hadn't fought the damn Pequod war Indians would still have their lands and I wouldn't have lost 500 dollars playing black jack at the Indian casino last weekend. No King Phillips war then no Detroit no George Romney no mitt Romney. Say hello to Presidnet pimp knife pawlenty. On a lighter note how pissed do you think TPaw is that Bush nicknamed Motch Daniels the blade.
Gawker says that America is the land of the white, straight man.
http://gawker.com/5964284/were-you-born-in-the-worlds-best-country-unless-you-answered-ja-oui-or-si-the-answer-is-no
@ son of brock landers
Mexico is a great place to be born because as a mexican you can easily immigrate to the US and get a lifetime of free shit
Of course you are right. In general. But all these lists that you keep quoting are completely retarded. They just show that the random dolts that compile them have absolutely no idea what they are rating and how.
Ukraine and Kenya nearly equal? Israel better than France? Colombia significantly better than Serbia? And on, and on... Stupid as stupid does.
In regards to Ukraine, let's at least acknowledge they've had a bitch of a century, what with the 5 million killed during the Holodomor, the 5 million killed during WW2, and 70 plus years under the Bolsheviks. That's a whole lot of negativity to overcome.
Anonymous said...
But Lynn had to estimate the Ukrainian IQ and I'm not aware of another source for it.
Lynn has updated his national IQ data a number of times since 2006's IQ&TWoN. His latest national IQ estimates in Intelligence: A Unifying Construct for the Social Sciences (2012) placed Ukraine's average IQ at 94.3.
You can see Lynn's latest national IQ estimates listed here: http://imgur.com/UxuGn
B.B.
Conincidentally there was a letter from the department of "Bevölkerungsdienste und Migration" in my mailbox yesterday informing me that I have fulfilled all the legal requirements to apply for Swiss citizenship (I'm already a PR after residing >10 years). They don't seem to be very selective and appear to be actively prodding PRs to make the final leap. Perhaps this has to do with the low fertility of the native Swiss (TFR 1.52, mostly bolstered by foreigners). In any case, I don't think I will relinquish my Malaysian (place 36) nationality. Home is home and I plan to go back. BTW, as other posters have commented, the Gulf Arab states should be weighted negatively for geopolitical and social reasons and Eastern Europe appears to be undervalued. And much as I enjoyed traveling in Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece, it seems strange to find them (and Slovakia, Poland, Czech Rep) above Malaysia as their medium to long-term prospects are gloomy.
Portugal - Angola
The Guardian has this article.
It has the same breathless tone of wide eyed wonderment such articles always adopt. Rich Africans lording it over poor whites - whats not to like?
I presume whats actually going on is the Angolan Big Men have a monopoly on the resources and the Portuguese are the people who make it all work.
Angolans are buying property etc in Portugal but Im guessing there are restrictions in the other direction - or else the Angolans would soon be out of the picture entirely.
Final quote gives the game away, in typical Guardian fashion while implying the the Portuguese are the problem rather than the Angolan elite:
"When Portuguese people come here, they improve their own situation but not that of the Angolan people. Because of the kind of regime we have, it won't help the situation of young Angolans. We are living under dictatorship. Maybe people outside can't see it very well."
this is a list of boredome.
the best places to live are paris, tokyo, london, nyc, amsterdam, berlin, dubai, etc. if you have a lot of money and the right age.
also, i like to mix my jetset up with some slavic goddesses and visits to gstaad, ibiza, hongkong, kaapstad and nepal for some fun and healing.
this list is seriously lacking in some kind of excitement factor. what makes living fun, excitable, cool?
It's absurd to have the US equal with Germany. The sausages and beer are far better in Germany.
... there is difference if you choose the place where to be born expecting to be equipped with your present genes and talents etc or do you choose from behind the "veil of ignorance"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veil_of_ignorance
As Rawls put it, "...no one knows his place in society, his class position or social status; nor does he know his fortune in the distribution of natural assets and abilities, his intelligence and strength, and the like".
so are you a risk taker or do you think "if I born as a bloody ¤%&%¤ I'll deserve all the crap i'll get - or do you play it safe and choose a wealthy Scandinavian Social Democracy?
Why only four sub-Saharan African countries when there are 48? Too depressing to have them all piled at the bottom? Nigeria may be bad, but I'm sure it rates higher than Togo, Benin, Central African Republic and Sierra Leone. Haiti is rated the worst non-African country, but at least it's open to outside aid.
Yes, these people are white but they ain't that bright. They were always ruled by someone else and they stuck to the peasant subsistence farming, which was right about their level. There's a reason why their rulers invited the Jews in to form a merchant class - the locals were clearly not up to it. Not all white people are created equal.
By the way, Poland right next door was doing considerably better - crossing the border was like going from the US to Mexico.
Yet how much genetic difference is there between the western Ukraine and Poland? Both countries, too, have lost their former dominant (German and Jewish) minorities. It looks like you've fallen into some lazy HBD cliches, abetted, perhaps, by Jewish chauvinism. This seems like one of those cases where cultural explanations work better.
Cennbeorc
"It looks like you've fallen into some lazy HBD cliches, abetted, perhaps, by Jewish chauvinism. This seems like one of those cases where cultural explanations work better."
First of all you have to see the toothless peasants yourself to understand. I actually recommend a visit. Prices are low and it's reasonably safe. For those who like white people, well you'll see nothing but white people. Your ATM card will work. L'viv - the central city is a perfectly preserved pre-WWI Austro-Hungarian provincial city- not a building has been added or destroyed since 1914. I attended the opera for a tiny fraction of what it would cost to get tickets in Milan or Paris (not that the quality was quite the same). And the surrounding countryside is quite beautiful if poor. It hasn't been ruined that much by industry because they don't have much.
You assume too much about my views. I would say that there is both a cultural and a genetic element to IQ which is self-reinforcing over time so "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer". And of course leadership and the political system make a big difference. Two cultures can start out with similar genetic stock and end up with very different results. Look at North and South Korea.
Western Ukraine has a particularly unfortunate history as others have pointed out. First the Germans came and got rid of the Jewish business and Polish upper and administrative class. Then the Russians came and got rid of the Ukrainian leadership class who had collaborated with the Germans. Basically all that was left were the less promising segments of society. And Slavs, like American Indians, have a weakness for alcohol which is very damaging to society. Ukraine is first in the world in something. Unfortunately that thing is teenage alcohol consumption. They are clearly making some efforts to join the modern world but they are starting from way behind.
I refuse to accept that Ukraine ranks lower than miserable Third World dumps like Angola, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Egypt, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and South Africa.
RD writing in 1950:
I refuse to accept that Detroit ranks lower than miserable Third World dumps like Tokyo and Seoul.
The survey is on "where to be born" - i.e. what places will be better in 20, 30, 50 years, not today.
The survey is on "where to be born" - i.e. what places will be better in 20, 30, 50 years, not today.
Yes. This explains Russia's low rank. The Economist (and most other Western media) keeps pushing the line that Russia is about to collapse any day now.
It's a fact:
Accident of birth is no accident.
Souls waiting to be incarnated can choose the parents who will provide them with the kind of life they want to live.
Some souls have 'prole' tastes and gravitate towards those kinds of parents.
Re: ukraine
Sailer, you must have forgotten the flemish-walloon type antagonism between eastern and western ukrainians. actually, a better analogy is czech-sudeten german antagonism...the kind that brings in large outside powers to "protect" their brethren.
Since they rank Australia only #13you should probably explain why you still call it a "whitopia."
Ukraine and Russia are probably ranked low because the system takes life expectancies, mortality rates and alcoholism/drug addiction rates into account. That is skewing the results. Male life expectancies in particular are really low in Russia. Eastern Europe probably isn't among the worst places when you control for those factors.
As someone who is part Ukrainian-American, I will admit we aren't that smart. The best thing for Ukrainians to do is have children with more intelligent people.
Western Ukraine has a particularly unfortunate history as others have pointed out. First the Germans came and got rid of the Jewish business and Polish upper and administrative class. Then the Russians came and got rid of the Ukrainian leadership class who had collaborated with the Germans.
You seemed to have left out what came before the Germans.
The entire government of Ukraine just resigned after falling victim to a $1.1 billion fraud:
http://agonist.org/ukraine-entire-government-resigns-after-falling-victim-to-fraud/
The entire government of Ukraine just resigned after falling victim to a $1.1 billion fraud.
Anything to do with Demonoid?
If there is coal there is gas. So your answer is, there is an enormous amount of frackable gas.
dearieme:"It's absurd to have the US equal with Germany. The sausages and beer are far better in Germany."
On the other hand, the USA has better surfing.
"Warren Buffett, probably the world’s most successful investor, has said that anything good that happened to him could be traced back to the fact that he was born in the right country, the United States, at the right time (1930).
So, Warren wants to destroy the very thing that made his great life possible."
Speaking of Warren, there was an interesting article on him at Forbes last week:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jerrybowyer/2012/11/29/when-warren-went-left-the-ideological-seduction-of-warren-buffett/
The author suggests he supports the left not out of rational decision making, but because women screwed him up so badly, that he became enamored with the first one who gave him the time of day, who happened to be a 'hippie beatnick'.
I echo what the other commenters said; for having basically the most beautiful women in the world, Russia and Ukraine are mighty low on the list.
I don't get this at all. In my experience, women from the US are far better looking than women from anywhere else, and I've never found any reason to think that Russian or Ukrainian women are better-looking than those from any other European country.
You seemed to have left out what came before the Germans.
Western Ukraine was part of Poland between WWI and WWII and was not affected by the Holodomor.
"s Rawls put it, "...no one knows his place in society, his class position or social status; nor does he know his fortune in the distribution of natural assets and abilities, his intelligence and strength, and the like".
Sam Harris says the same thing.
This is especially true for people who accept HBD.
Harris says, "There is not a person on earth who chose his genome, or the country of his birth, or the political and economic conditions that prevailed at moments crucial to his progress."
Does a person deserve credit for not being lazy? No. It is a neurological condition like diligence.
So, can someone explain to me how being born in a Communist country is better than being born in a free country?
Are these people stupid or just plain imbeciles?
JAY
Post a Comment