December 11, 2012

Photos of how rich white Mexicans live


Thank goodness the press has been searching out Conquistador-Americans such as Univision anchorman Jorge Ramos ever since the election to give the rest of us much needed moral advice on immigration. We racist white bread white people must stop resisting the vibrantization of America. We have so much to learn from our superiors, both in ethics and taste.

(Attention Mrs. Morris Dees, I think I've found those interior decorating inspirations you've been looking for.)

I've been trying to point out for a long time that one problem with massive immigration from Mexico is that rich people in Mexico are among the world's worst role models. When the DREAM Act dreamers dream, this is who they dream of becoming. People in Georgetown, Cambridge, and the Upper West Side don't have a clue what they have been getting the country into.

The rich in some some ex-Communist countries may be worse, but Mexican elites are pretty bad. I suspect that rich people in, say, Turkey (a country that is comparable in some ways to Mexico) aren't quite as atrocious, although what do I know.

Perhaps things are getting better in Mexico? These are all pictures of daughters of PRI-connected men taken in 1999, the last year of the PRI monopoly on the presidency. Maybe the rise of the business-oriented PAN brought about a slightly more bourgeois orientation? (Of course, the PRI is now back in power in Mexico.)

By the way, here are pictures of the reputed Putin's Palace built at vast expense for murky purpose in the Crimea. It's got kind of an Enlightened Despot theme going that I would commend to Mexican oligarchs.

Charles Murray responds to Ron Unz college admissions article

Charles Murray writes:
At the Ivies, Asians are the new Jews. 
I propose this challenge to any Ivy League school that denies it has a de facto quota for Asian admissions. Let a third party—any number of highly respected research organizations could handle this task—randomly select a large sample of applications from which the 2012 entering class was selected. Delete all material identifying race or ethnicity. Then, applying the criteria and the weighting system that the university claims to be using, have expert judges make simulated admissions decisions. Let’s see what percentage of Asians get in under race-blind conditions. I’m betting 25% at least, with 30–40% as more probable. 
None of the Ivies will take me up on it, of course. The people in their admissions offices know that their incoming classes are not supposed to have “too many” Asian faces, and part of their job is to make sure that they don’t. I just want them to admit publicly what they’re doing, and state their rationale, which presumably goes something like this: The Ivies are not supposed to be strict academic meritocracies. They need students with a variety of strengths and personality types. And even 16% Asian students is more than three times the Asian proportion of the American population. 
I don’t have a problem with the need for a student body with diverse strengths and personality types. Harvard is a better place because it does not select a class consisting exclusively of applicants with perfect SAT scores. But a candid statement of the rationale that has led to the 16±2% solution can’t stop there. It needs to say that apart from the need for a variety of strengths and personality types, the Ivies have decided that they just don’t want too many epicanthic folds in their student bodies. Because there’s no getting past the naked fact that students from an ethnic minority are now being turned down because they have the wrong ethnicity. It is exactly the same thing that Ivy League admissions officers did to Jewish applicants in the 1920s, when it was decided that too many Jews were getting into their schools. They too had a rationale for putting a quota on Jews that they too believed was justified. What I don’t understand is this: Why do we all accept that what the Ivies did to limit Jewish enrollment was racist and un-American, while what they’re doing to limit Asian enrollment is not even considered newsworthy?

How much can you trust international school achievement tests?

Commenter TH compares 2011 results on TIMSS / PERLS to 2009 results on PISA:
I calculated some correlations between the PISA 2009 (15-y/o's), TIMSS 2011 (8th grade), and PIRLS 2011 (10-y/o's). 
The correlation between PISA 2009 math and TIMSS 2011 math is 0.87 (n=26). 
In both studies, East Asians are at the top, white-majority countries at the middle, and others at the bottom. 
However, if you look only at white-majority countries, the correlation is 0.19 (n=13). Russia and Israel do particularly well in the TIMSS compared to the PISA. The former is supposed to be a more math-heavy test compared to the latter which is a test of "mathematics literacy".

So, on the big picture, PISA and TIMSS are pretty much in agreement on the global racial hierarchy of math smarts. On the other hand, on the small picture of how white countries are doing, it's pretty much of a mess. There could be a lot of reasons for this, some inevitable (the test has to choose what to test on by a certain grade, which might not be what that country teaches up to that point), some potentially fixable (one country might try really hard to get students to work diligently on the test, another might treat it as just another test, and a lower stakes one than most).
In the US, the racial breakdown of the TIMSS scores in grade 8 is as follows (SD=100, global baseline = 500)
White 530
Black 465
Hispanic 485
Asian 568
Multiracial 513 
Hispanics slightly outscore Norway and Sweden in the TIMSS, while Norway and Sweden score only slightly (0.1 SD or so) higher than US blacks. In the PISA math test, Norway and Sweden outscored US Hispanics by 0.3-0.4 SD and US blacks by about 0.7 SD. 

What about for reading?
The correlation between PISA 2009 reading and PIRLS 2011 is 0.81 (n=36). Among white-majority countries (n=18) the correlation is 0.24. 
In the US, the racial breakdown of the PIRLS scores is as follows (SD=100): 
White 575
Black 522
Hispanic 532
Asian 588
Multiracial 578 
The black average is higher than that of, for example, France, Spain, Norway, and Belgium. In the PISA reading test, each of those four countries outscored US blacks by more than 0.5 SD.


New TIMSS and PIRLS test results

There are new results out from two international school achievement tests:

The U.S. average mathematics score at grade 4 (541)
was higher than the international TIMSS scale average,
which is set at 500.
• At grade 4, the United States was among the top 15
education systems in mathematics (8 education systems
had higher averages and 6 were not measurably
different) and scored higher, on average, than 42
education systems.
•  The 8 education systems with average mathematics
scores above the U.S. score were Singapore, Korea,
Hong Kong-CHN, Chinese Taipei-CHN, Japan,
Northern Ireland-GBR, North Carolina-USA, and
Belgium (Flemish)-BEL. ...
• At grade 8, the United States was among the top 24
education systems in mathematics (11 education
systems had higher averages and 12 were not
measurably different) and scored higher, on average,
than 32 education systems.
• The 11 education systems with average mathematics
scores above the U.S. score were Korea, Singapore,
Chinese Taipei-CHN, Hong Kong-CHN, Japan,
Massachusetts-USA, Minnesota-USA, the Russian
Federation, North Carolina-USA, Quebec-CAN, and
Indiana-USA.
At grade 8, the United States was among the top
23 education systems in science (12 education
systems had higher averages and 10 were
not measurably different) and scored higher,
on average, than 33 education systems.
• The 12 education systems with average science scores
above the U.S. score were Singapore, MassachusettsUSA,
Chinese Taipei-CHN, Korea, Japan, MinnesotaUSA,
Finland, Alberta-CAN, Slovenia, the Russian
Federation, Colorado-USA, and Hong Kong-CHN. 

For example, here is 8th grade math:
Grade 8
Education systemAverage score
TIMSS scale average500
Korea, Rep. of613△
Singapore1611△
Chinese Taipei-CHN609△
Hong Kong-CHN586△
Japan570△
Russian Federation1539△
Israel2516
Finland514
United States1509
England-GBR3507
Hungary505
Australia505
Slovenia505
Lithuania4502
Italy498▽
New Zealand488▽
Kazakhstan487▽
Sweden484▽
Ukraine479▽
Norway475▽
Armenia467▽
Romania458▽
United Arab Emirates456▽
Turkey452▽
Lebanon449▽
Malaysia440▽
Georgia4,5431▽
Thailand427▽
Macedonia, Rep. of6426▽
Tunisia425▽
Chile416▽
Iran, Islamic Rep. of6415▽
Qatar6410▽
Bahrain6409▽
Jordan6406▽
Palestinian Nat'l Auth.6404▽
Saudi Arabia6394▽
Indonesia6386▽
Syrian Arab Republic6380▽
Morocco7371▽
Oman6366▽
Ghana7331▽
Benchmarking education systems
Massachusetts-USA1,4561△
Minnesota-USA4545△
North Carolina-USA2,4537△
Quebec-CAN532△
Indiana-USA1,4522△
Colorado-USA4518
Connecticut-USA1,4518
Florida-USA1,4513
Ontario-CAN1512
Alberta-CAN1505
California-USA1,4493▽
Dubai-UAE478▽
Alabama-USA4466▽
Abu Dhabi-UAE449▽
△ Average score is higher than U.S. average score.
▽ Average score is lower than U.S. average score.
There are a bunch of different tables like this for different subjects in different grades, so don't take this one all that seriously. I just plunked it in because it was handy.

Here's 8th grade science:

Grade 8
Education systemAverage score
TIMSS scale average500
Singapore1590△
Chinese Taipei-CHN564△
Korea, Rep. of560△
Japan558△
Finland552△
Slovenia543△
Russian Federation1542△
Hong Kong-CHN535△
England-GBR2533
United States1525
Hungary522
Australia519
Israel3516
Lithuania4514▽
New Zealand512▽
Sweden509▽
Italy501▽
Ukraine501▽
Norway494▽
Kazakhstan490▽
Turkey483▽
Iran, Islamic Rep. of474▽
Romania465▽
United Arab Emirates465▽
Chile461▽
Bahrain452▽
Thailand451▽
Jordan449▽
Tunisia439▽
Armenia437▽
Saudi Arabia436▽
Malaysia426▽
Syrian Arab Republic426▽
Palestinian Nat'l Auth.420▽
Georgia4,5420▽
Oman420▽
Qatar419▽
Macedonia, Rep. of407▽
Lebanon406▽
Indonesia406▽
Morocco376▽
Ghana6306▽
Benchmarking education systems
Massachusetts-USA1,4567△
Minnesota-USA4553△
Alberta-CAN1546△
Colorado-USA4542△
Indiana-USA1,4533
Connecticut-USA1,4532
North Carolina-USA3,4532
Florida-USA1,4530
Ontario-CAN1521
Quebec-CAN520
California-USA1,4499▽
Alabama-USA4485▽
Dubai-UAE485▽
Abu Dhabi-UAE461▽
△ Average score is higher than U.S. average score.
▽ Average score is lower than U.S. average score.


I have no idea how representative the samples are, or how hard the students felt like trying.

These things are a lot of work to set up. Think of how hard it would be to coordinate all over the world in all these different languages. Then try to think about all the things that could go wrong if you were in charge. It's pretty daunting.

Looking at all 53 education systems that participated in PIRLS at grade 4 (i.e., both countries and other education systems), the United States was among the top 13 education systems in average reading scores. The five education systems that had higher average scores were Hong Kong-CHN, FloridaUSA, the Russian Federation, Finland, and Singapore. Seven education systems, Northern Ireland-GBR, Denmark, Croatia, Chinese Taipei-CHN, Ontario-CAN, Ireland, and England-GBR, had average scores not measurably different from the U.S. average score. The United States had higher average reading scores than 40 education systems.

Education system Overall reading average scale score
   PIRLS scale average 500
Hong Kong-CHN1 571
Russian Federation 568
Finland 568
Singapore2 567
Northern Ireland-GBR3 558
United States2 556
Denmark2 554
Croatia2 553
Chinese Taipei-CHN 553
Ireland 552
England-GBR3 552
Canada2 548
Netherlands3 546
Czech Republic 545
Sweden 542
Italy 541
Germany 541
Israel1 541
Portugal 541
Hungary 539
Slovak Republic 535
Bulgaria 532
New Zealand 531
Slovenia 530
Austria 529
Lithuania2,4 528
Australia 527
Poland 526


France 520
Spain 513
Norway5 507
Belgium (French)-BEL2,3 506
Romania 502
Georgia4,6 488
Malta 477
Trinidad and Tobago 471
Azerbaijan2,6 462
Iran, Islamic Rep. of 457
Colombia 448
United Arab Emirates 439
Saudi Arabia 430
Indonesia 428
Qatar2 425
Oman7 391
Morocco8 310
Benchmarking education systems
Florida-USA1,4 569
Ontario-CAN2 552
Alberta-CAN2 548
Quebec-CAN 538
Andalusia-ESP 515
Dubai-UAE 476
Maltese-MLT 457
Dhabi-UAE 424


December 10, 2012

Education Realist responds to Unz essay on college admissions

Education Realist has a long post up entitled "An Alternative College Admissions System." Here's a sample:
….the overrepresentation of Asians is explained more by their dominance in GPA, as opposed to test scores. And that’s harder to fix. It’s easy enough to tell white kids with high test scores to go to test prep and maximize their scores, but by junior year, the GPA damage has been done. 
What that means: no more room for, say, the idiosyncratic white boy who scores 2250/34 on the SAT/ACT, scored 4s and 5s in 7 AP tests, got 780, 730, and 690 on the US History, English Lit, and Math 2c, but whose weighted GPA is a 3.8. 
So just raise the GPA, you say. White parents need to raise their expectations for their own kids. Hahahahaha. This is me laughing. Unless the white kid is ruthlessly driven and competitive on his own merit, parental pressure as a means of raising his or her grades to the degree needed to compete with Asians is a non-starter.

Okay, but this isn't to say that white parents shouldn't push farther out on the diminishing returns curve than they are doing right now on average.
Amy Chua isn’t kidding. If a white parent tried to drive her kid the way Amy Chua did hers, the kid would end up in therapy, and the therapist would make the parent stop. Asian parenting techniques are abusive in white people world. Full stop. (What disgusts me most about Chua’s story is not her own behavior, as she doesn’t know any better, but that her white husband stood by and let her abuse her daughters. But then, I’m a white parent.) 
Not only does this difference between white and Asian cultural expectations lead to lower GPAs for whites, but smart white kids with B averages are then denied access to AP classes (in most Asian schools, access to AP is strictly limited by GPA), which put even a lower ceiling on their GPA. 
And finally, understand that those Asian good grades do not necessarily translate to a well-educated student. As my primary second job, I teach enrichment at a private educational company (aka, an Asian cram school), which over seven years adds up to a lot of Asian high school students. I love them. They’re great kids. But my experience has taught me to question any straightforward comparison between white and Asian academic credentials. 
All of my enrichment kids, as sophomores, are taking honors English and pre-calc. Maybe 10% of them can reliably read a complex text and offer an interesting or informed analysis without referring to Wikipedia and repeating verbatim what they read there, and in seven years and probably 300 kids I have never once had a student who could explain the derivation of the quadratic formula (that is, the generalized case for completing the square). 
I also teach an AP US History prep course every year, at two different locations, to a dozen students per class. All but a few kids each year will have taken six months of APUSH by the time my class starts, and fewer than a quarter of them have ever known who wrote the Federalist papers, or the most important achievement of the Northwest Ordinance of 1787, when the class begins. Very few of them can even make a stab at naming the presidents in order, or even identify any of the “forgettable” presidents. These are kids attending public schools with some of the highest SAT averages in the country, more than a few of them topping out at 2400. [Northern California]
In comparison, I’ve tutored and taught (in public schools) a lot of bright white kids and their awareness and retention of their own education, including the above benchmark questions, is far superior, on average. There are, of course, white soulless swotters and creative inquisitive Korean eccentrics. But the betting goes the other way. 
So, for the grade manipulation that goes on at the bottom end of the scale, and the cultural skew that goes on at the top end of the scale, grades are just flatly useless. Unless or until we move to a system in which grades are taken out of teachers’ hands and determined by outside standardized tests, grades must be eliminated from any truly meritocratic admissions process. End rant. 
(Two points before I go on: 1) bright Hispanic and black kids are also more likely to retain their knowledge than Asian kids, but they are rarer and are going to write their own tickets regardless; 2) just as Asian test performance may overstate their abilities, black test performance may understate their abilities because the tests focus too much on abstraction and generalized situations. That’s another reason I want a much more competitive test market, to see if perhaps we can find a more meaningful way to test the bottom half of the ability spectrum. )

The real money would likely be for new tests for the high end, however. White people in Park Slope would like some objective test that shows their kids really are as amazing as they think they are.

For 45 years, people have wanted a test that closes The Gap. But, blacks really aren't going to be that big of a deal in the America of the Future. 

The future of testing will arrive when somebody comes up with a test that Asians can't crush whites on. 

In theory, blacks and whites could wind up on the same side on testing reform. Some clever Park Slope SWPL might someday come up with a new test that cuts down on Asian advantage over whites and then push it through because blacks do relatively better on it than on old tests. Recruit a third-generation Asian-American to push it as well, and it just might work.