December 18, 2004

The 3rd Secret Behind Why Red States Are Red

My new VDARE column reveals the third factor behind Bush winning a high share of a state's votes: low inflation in housing prices. Bush carried the 26 states with the least inflation in home prices between 1980 and 2004, while Kerry won the top 14 states with fastest growing housing prices.

Note that, tellingly, in second place as an indicator of GOP predilection, in between Years Married and Total Fertility, is the growth in housing prices between 1980 and 2004. The correlation coefficient is -0.82. The negative sign means that the more housing prices have risen, the more Democratic the state was.

For example, housing prices in Massachusetts, the most Democratic state in the 2004 election, rose 516%, the highest home inflation in the country. In Utah, the most Republican state, house prices were up only 162%.

Expensive housing retards family formation, which helps the Democrats. Rising housing prices transfer wealth from young people to old people.

Importing more foreigners, as the Bush Administration suicidally wants to do, drives up the price of homes by increasing demand. That makes it harder for young voters to start down the road to homeownership, marriage, babies—and committed Republicanism.

My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer

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