December 18, 2004

Final Results: 2004 Presidential Election

Ruy Teixeira links to Michael McDonald of George Mason University and shows that Bush's win was a little narrower than the 3 points, 4 million votes we had assumed:

Bush 62,008,619 (50.74%)

Kerry 59,012,107 (48.29%)

Total (all candidates) 122,212,577

(Turnout Rate among eligible: 59.9%)

Margin of Victory: 2,996,512 (2.45%)

Judging from both 2000 and 2004, the Democratic candidate will pick up several tenths of a point after everybody stops paying attention and the conventional wisdom ossifies about how big the margin was.

My published articles are archived at -- Steve Sailer

No comments: