Reporter Dennis Cauchon of USA Today called me last week and we spoke for close to an hour about my work on the correlation between affordable family formation and voting. His twin articles on the marriage gap and fertility gap are up today, although he doesn't see fit to mention my name. Good stuff, nonetheless:
Marriage gap could sway elections
•Republicans control 49 of the 50 districts with the highest rates of married people.
•Democrats represent all 50 districts that have the highest rates of adults who have never married.
The political tug-of-war is between people who are married and those who have never been.
The “never married” group covers a variety of groups who form the Democratic base: young people, those who marry late in life, single parents, gays, and heterosexuals who live together.
The marriage divide drew attention in the 2004 presidential race. President Bush beat John Kerry by 15 percentage points among married people and lost by 18 percentage points among unmarried people, according to an exit poll conducted by national news media organizations.
Most serious Democratic challenges this fall are in Republican-controlled House districts that have lower marriage rates.
For example, the two seats most likely to switch from Republican to Democratic are Arizona's 8th District and Colorado's 7th District, according to the non-partisan National Journal. The districts — in which Republican incumbents are not seeking re-election — rank 251st and 307th respectively in marriage rates among the 435 districts.
Of the five Republicans who have the lowest rates of married people in their districts, four are in tough battles with Democrats. On the other side, Rep. Melissa Bean, D-Ill., whose district has a high marriage rate, faces a strong GOP challenge.
Rep. John Linder, R-Ga., whose district has the highest marriage rate (66.1%), says the gap exists because “people get more conservative when they settle down.” Democratic pollster Mark Mellman says the gap is magnified because a greater percentage of married people vote than unmarried people.
[More, including tables of Congressmen with the most and least married constituents. Tom Tancredo has the fourth most-married residents. Most of the least-married Congressmen are blacks who represent districts gerrymandered under the Voting Rights Act to elect blacks. An important exception is Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.]
'Fertility gap' helps explain political divide
GOP Congress members represent 39.2 million children younger than 18, about 7 million more than Democrats. Republicans average 7,000 more children per district.
Many Democrats represent areas that have many single people and relatively few children. Democratic districts that have large numbers of children tend to be predominantly Hispanic or, to a lesser extent, African-American.
This "fertility gap" is crucial to understanding the differences between liberals and conservatives, says Arthur Brooks, a professor of public administration at Syracuse University. These childbearing patterns shape divisions over issues such as welfare, education and child tax credits, he says.
"Both sides are very pro-kids. They just express it in different ways," Brooks says. "Republicans are congenial to traditional families, which is clearly the best way for kids to grow up. But there are some kids who don't have that advantage, and Democrats are very concerned with helping those kids."
Children in Democratic districts are far more likely to live in poverty and with single parents than kids in GOP districts.
Rep. José Serrano, D-N.Y., has 227,246 children in his Bronx district, the 10th most in the House. Only 29% of those children live with married parents.
By contrast, 84% of children live with married parents in Cannon's central Utah district.
... Marriage and parenthood define what's different about Democratic and Republican districts even more clearly than race, income, education or geography, USA TODAY's analysis of Census data found.
For example, Republicans represent seven of the 50 districts that have the highest concentrations of blacks. Both parties are well represented among affluent and well-educated districts.
Democrats control only one of the 50 districts with the highest marriage rates.
Rep. Rush Holt, D-N.J., who represents the most-married
... Pelosi says in speeches that her most important concern is "the children, the children, the children," says her spokesman, Drew Hammill. That's why she wants to raise the minimum wage to help low-income parents, he says.
The stay-at-home mom is uncommon in all congressional districts. Mothers work at the same rate — about 71% — in Republican and Democratic districts.
Nevertheless, a big difference in family life is clear:
• Democrats represent 59 districts in which less than half of adults are married. Republicans represent only two.
• Democrats represent 30 districts in which less than half of children live with married parents. Republicans represent none.
"The biggest gaps in American politics are religion, race and marital status," says Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. [More]
My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer
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