May 18, 2008

Indian IQ, Part 1: Diaspora Demographics

Since 2002, I've been pointing out that a crucial piece of missing information that anybody (such as an investor) interested in predicting the path of 21st global history would want to know is what is the potential average IQ of India.

We have some IQ data on India, as collected in Lynn and Vanhanen's IQ and the Wealth of Nations and their other books, and they point toward low average scores.

On the other hand, first, India is an extremely complicated place, so it's harder to come up with a nationally representative sample there than in any other country.

Second, India has been severely burdened by malnutrition, disease, and illiteracy. We know from comparing Africans (average IQ around 70) to African-Americans (average IQs around 85, despite being no more than 20% white) that tropical poverty can prevent people from reaching their genetic potential in IQ.

Something similar is probably true in India. Its recent rapid economic progress makes it more plausible that the environmental deficits lowering average IQ in India will ameliorate to some substantial extent over the course of this century.

An iSteve commenter calling himself Rec1man has built a model of potential Indian average IQ based on IQ scores of the Indian diaspora in various countries more affluent than India. This seems like a plausible approach, so I've been discussing it with him via email and now I'm going to begin posting it.

I want to break my posting of Rec1man's model up into several stages, because, in my experience, it's easy for a reader to skip right to the bottom line of a complex model and accept or reject it as a whole, and then get invested in defending one's initial reaction.

His is necessarily a complicated model because the Indian diaspora is extremely heterogeneous due to the caste system in India and the different selection filters for Indian immigrants in diaspora countries. Thus, for example, the average caste level of the Indian diaspora in the U.S. is much higher than in former British tropical colonies where the British were looking to import diligent peasants rather than computer programmers.

So, Rec1man has come up with estimates of the demographics of the Indian diaspora by caste for each country.

From there, he can work back to estimating IQ by caste within each diaspora country and then to potential IQ by caste in India and finally back to potential overall average IQ for India as a whole.

Today, though, I'm going to post just his demographic breakdowns by caste for Indians in various country, and leave his IQ estimates for another day. This is information I've never seen published before, even though I've long wondered about it.

But, I don't know whether his demographic estimates are accurate. If you have some knowledge of this subject, please comment on whether the following look reasonably accurate or not.

If they do look plausible, then I'll go ahead and post Rec1man's IQ estimates.

India:

Brahmins, 5%
Upper Castes, 15%
Backward Castes, 40%
Muslims, 15%
Dalits [Untouchables] and Tribals, 25%

Indians in the U.S.A.

US Brahmins, 25%
US forward castes, 50%
US backward castes, 25%

The British exported castes as per their requirements.

Singapore:

30% upper caste
40% backward caste
30% Dalit.

In the UK, the British wanted factory workers after WW2, so they did not import dalits (agricultural workers). They imported peasant backward castes from Indian Punjab and Pakistani Punjab. The British knew that Dalits may not be able to work in factories while the backward castes could be trainable

Later in 1970, Idi Amin fell in love with an Indian woman in Uganda. Her family sent her off to India to protect her from Idi Amin's lust. In revenge, Idi Amin expelled the Indians in Uganda, who were mostly small traders, forward merchant castes, and these went to UK

So, in UK:

Forward caste 60%
Backward caste 40%

Pakistanis in UK are all [descended from] backward castes [who converted to Islam].

In Pakistan, few forward castes and brahmins and dalits converted to islam. They remained hindu and went to Indian Punjab

Pakistanis in Pakistan are [by descent]

Forward caste, 10%
Backward caste 80%
and dalit 10%

Bangladeshis in UK are

Backward caste 50%
Dalit 50%

Similarly, Bangladeshis in Bangladesh are
Backward caste 50%
Dalit 50%

Razib of GNXP.com comments:

US Brahmins, 25%
US forward castes, 50%
US backward castes, 25%


this looks skewed to me. around 50% of indians in the USA are gujaratis, mostly patels. about 25% are punjabis, often sikhs, who mostly be from jats (i think they're classified as backward, but i don't know, i think it depends on region and stuff). the other 25% are mixed up with various groups; a lot of these are brahmins, but not all. for example, christians from kerala are way overrepresented, and they're derived from non-brahmins by and large. i think a brahmin figure on the order of 15% is more realistic. backward caste depends on how you classify it, since south indian non-brahmins are all technically "lower caste," but i think kerala christians are considered forward. in short, bump up the forward caste number, and lower the brahmin and backward.

most of other numbers look OK, but i think a lot of the muslim classifications are by their nature guess work. i have no idea how backward and forward caste in bangladesh is assigned here. 90% of people in bangladesh are now muslim, and most of the hindus remaining are low caste groups who couldn't or wouldn't move to india for whatever reason. the general consensus is most bangladeshi muslim were non-forward caste peasants, as is true of hindus in west bengal. the only thing with bangladeshis in the UK is something like 90% are from one region of bangladesh, syhlet, but i doubt that makes a big difference in your assessment....

i would add a few other points

1) mauritius, mostly backward castes with a small minority of merchants and upper castes

2) south africa, the same (here the upper classes are disproportionately gujarati merchants)

3) the guyana & trinidad & suriname, the same

4) fiji, the same

a disproportionate number of the overseas diaspora in places where they were sent to do agricultural work are from eastern uttar pradesh and bihar; the north-central gangetic plain. malaysia and singapore are exceptional insofar as the indians are mostly tamils from the south from across the bay of bengal....

My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

224 comments:

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Sriram said...

Besides IQ, another difference between Indians and east asians is exposure to English and perhaps the extra degree of compatibility between English and Indian languages (compared to English and Chinese). Even in the USA, I suspect Indian Americans have better mean ability on verbal tests than their east asian counterparts who may have as high or higher overall IQ.

Most Indians are bi-lingual and many are tri-lingual; and a few of my friends have picked up languages like Chinese, Russian and Japanese well into their adulthood for work reasons. So maybe theres as yet unexplained linguistic advantage accruing to the higher IQ end of higher caste Indian groups that matters. Maybe this depends on their being exposed to multiple languages during early childhood?

Anonymous said...

20 million english fluent, college educated brahmins with over 120IQ
available in India
--

http://escapefromindia.wordpress.com/indias-brahmin-rule-data/

Brahmin Snapshots

Total Population: 56 million
Poor Brahmins: 13%
Rich: 19%
Literacy levels above the age of 18: 84%
Graduates: 39%
Brahmin chief justices between 1950 to 2000: 47%
Associate justices between 1950-2000: 40%

Anonymous said...

http://osdir.com/ml/culture.region.india.goa/2002-11/msg00024.html

Brahmins are cream of Indian society: survey

By Deepshikha Ghosh, Indo-Asian News Service

New Delhi, Nov 7 (IANS) Despite being a microscopic minority, Brahmins are
still perceived to be dominating many aspects of Indian society.

Surprisingly, most other groups among caste-ridden Hindu society think that
Brahmins - who occupy the dominant position in the social hierarchy -- are
more intelligent, more educated and better looking.

This is one of the findings of a survey conducted across the country by
Week-TN Sofres Mode and published in the latest issue of The Week magazine.

Brahmins still remain a small minority but one to reckon with.

Seventy-one percent non-Brahmins perceive Brahmins as more intelligent than
the rest.

Seventy percent feel they are more educated, 48 percent think they are more
confident, but only a minority of 28 percent feel they are honest.

In physical appearance too, Brahmins get the nod of 46 percent respondents.

But only 19 percent think they are hardworking and 26 percent think they can
be better in entrepreneurship.

Brahmins are also perceived to be best in traditional arts.

Among the so-called forward castes, 54 percent feel Brahmins are the best
performers in traditional music and dance and 52 percent of the backward
castes and 60 percent of the scheduled castes and tribes share the view.

In southern India, all castes feel Brahmins to be the best performers.

Anonymous said...

In India, with its poverty and lousy colleges, 39% of brahmins have a college degree or more

In the US, those with at least a college degree or more

http://religions.pewforum.org/pdf/table-education-by-tradition.pdf

Total = 27%
Protestants = 24%
Catholic = 26%
Jews = 59%
Muslim = 24%
Buddhist = 48%
Hindus = 74%
Orthodox = 46%
Unitarian = 51%

Anonymous said...

All Indians are compulsorily bi lingual or even tri lingual in the 10th and 12th grade exams

English + Hindi + local language dialect

At school I had english + tamil + hindi
3 different scripts

The IQ tests used are mostly ravens matrices and dont catch weakness in verbal iq

In most cases such as SAT,
IQ is measured by average of math and verbal scores


In singapore, Indians score midway between chinese and malays in math

however in english they beat both chinese and malays


weakness of east asians in verbal iQ

http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft2.htm

Estranea. What do you mean by "verbal shortcomings." Is it that NE Asians perform less well than Europeans on verbal subtests or that they simply are not given to Strocchian pleonasm?

Prodigy. The former, but there is other evidence of their verbal deficiency. Take the bar exam for example. In 1989, the Law School Admission Council commissioned a study of bar passage rates. Its report, The LSAC National Longitudinal Bar Passage Study was published in 1998, with results disaggregated by race and ethnicity. Linda F. Wightman, the project head, collected data from more than 27,000 students who entered ABA approved law schools in fall 1991. The study found that only 80.75% of Asians passed the bar on the first try compared with 91.93% of non-Hispanic whites. This corresponds to a white-Asian mean-score difference of 0.53 standard deviation or in IQ terms a verbal gap of 8 points!

--

Of these, 12 reported both general and verbal IQ averages for NE Asians. Three of the 12 indicated a white-NE Asian verbal IQ gap of about 8 points in agreement with the bar exam result, but these are at the high end. The average verbal gap was a bit less than 4 points or about a quarter standard deviation.

Anonymous said...

Most Indians are bi-lingual and many are tri-lingual

Most Indians are trilingual while many are quadrilingual.

Schools teach their native language, plus Hindi (or Sanskrit), English and optionally a foreign language like German, French or Japanese. Plus people (and their kids) moving for jobs learn the language of the state they move to.

Anonymous said...

A test like the SAT or GRE which has both a verbal and math component is probably more reflective of real world IQ than a ravens matrix test
--

Regarding languages, my dad is fluent in 5 languages which he had to learn by necessity as his family moved from state to state, each with a different language and script

Anonymous said...

http://in.ibtimes.com/articles/20080609/reputation-institute-tata-infosys-technologies-global-pulse-report-corporate_all.htm

Indian companies are making waves not only in matters of acquisition but also in matters of reputation, if the list "Global 200: The World's Best Corporate Reputations" compiled by US-based Reputation Institute is any indication.

The Tata Group and Infosys Technologies spearhead India's charge, ranking 6th and 14th in the list, that also includes other Indian companies like Maruti Suzuki (77th), State Bank of India (107th), Hindustan Lever (131st), Hero Honda Motors (147th), Life Insurance Corporation of India (161st), Bajaj Auto (169th), ONGC (186th), Mahindra & Mahindra (191st) and Indian Oil Corporation (199th).

"India's Tata Group and Infosys Technologies saw their reputations increase by over 8 points in 2008, and catapulted over 100 spots in the ranking to join the top tier of global companies in 2008 in recognition of their growing role among the world's business elite," the Global Pulse 2008 report released by Reputation Institute said.

Interestingly, India's Tata Group (6th) has been ranked ahead of the likes of Walt Disney (12th), Philips Electronics (31st), Sony Corp. (35th), Colgate-Palmolive (36th), Honda Motor Co. (39th), Cadbury Schweppes (45th), General Electric (49th), Nestle (57th), Apple (63rd), Hewlett-Packard (66th), Boeing (78th), Dell (82nd), The Coca-Cola Co. (83rd), PepsiCo (100th), IBM (108th), Unilever (128th), Microsoft (137th), Samsung Electronics (163rd), Nokia (177th), British Airways (179th), LG Electronics (196th) and Airbus (197th).

IT bellwether Infosys Technologies ranked 5th in the 'Citizenship' category, 4th in the 'Governance' category, 4th in the 'Products/Services' category and 5th in 'Leadership' category.

The Tata Group ranked 5th in 'Governance' and 3rd in 'Leadership' categories.

Another noteworthy point is that Maruti Suzuki India (77th) has been ranked higher than the Indian automaker's Japanese parent body Suzuki Motor Corporation (139th).

The ranking on the Global Pulse 2008 report is based on the "good feeling, trust, and respect that consumers feel towards a company."

"The Global Pulse 2008 measures the reputations of the world's largest companies in each country based on their 'total revenues.' Rated companies had to have significant consumer presence and be minimally familiar to the general public. All companies are measured in their home country only, and the results standardized to remove unique country-level variation and enable cross-country comparisons," the report said.

According to Reputation Institute, a reputation is built on "7 pillars" from which a company can create a strategic platform for communicating with its stakeholders on the most relevant key performance indicators. These 7 pillars are: Product/Services; Innovation; Workplace; Governance; Citizenship; Leadership; and Performance.

The report was compiled based on a survey that spanned over 60,000 online interviews with consumers in 27 countries on six continents. Initially, 1000 companies were selected for the survey but only 200 found their way to the list.

The Global Pulse report is a "powerful strategic tool because it provides a common language for companies with which to manage their reputations" Reputation Institute said in its report.

Steve Sailer said...

Dear Rec1Man:

Please make up a short summary, say 300 words, of your current model after all this discussion and I'll likely post it on my blog.

Anonymous said...

Dear Rec1Man:

Please make up a short summary, say 300 words, of your current model after all this discussion and I'll likely post it on my blog.
--

Future Indian IQ
--
Southern Brahmin, 1% @ 125 IQ
Northern Brahmin, 4% @ 120 IQ
Southern Merchant, 3% @ 115 IQ
Northern Merchant, 12% @ 110 IQ
Southern Peasant, 8% @ 100 IQ
Northern Peasant, 32% @ 95 IQ
Muslim, 15% @ 85 iQ
Southern Dalit, 5% @ 85 IQ
Northern Dalit, 20% @ 80IQ
Avg = 94.10

Flynn effect for India
Brahmins and merchants = 5
Peasants = 7
Muslims and Dalits = 10
The Flynn for Africa = 10

--

Current IQ

Southern Brahmin, 1% @ 120 IQ
Northern Brahmin, 4% @ 115 IQ
Southern Merchant, 3% @ 110 IQ
Northern Merchant, 12% @ 105 IQ
Southern Peasant, 8% @ 93 IQ
Northern Peasant, 32% @ 88 IQ
Muslim, 15% @ 75 iQ
Southern Dalit, 5% @ 75 IQ
Northern Dalit, 20% @ 75IQ
Avg = 86.10 IQ
Current Flynn for India is 7.8
--

After Flynn
High End Indian IQ
Over 120IQ = 55 mil
Over 130IQ = 20 mil
Over 140IQ = 5 mil

Sriram said...

an example of distortions created by AA in India.

New Delhi, June 12: The National Commission for Scheduled Castes has summoned the Director of Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, for a meeting on June 17 after students belonging to SC/ST community were asked to leave the institution for "very poor performance".

"The Director of IIT, Delhi, Prof Surendra Prasad has been asked to come for a meeting on June 17," Commission sources said.

The decision to summon the Director was taken after a complaint had been registered with the Commission by the father of one of the students who was asked to leave the institute because of "very poor performance."

The premier technical institute this year had asked 20 under-graduate students to leave the campus as their performance was found "below the required minimum level for continuation."

The IIT administration had deliberately handpicked the students from SC/ST communities to throw them out of the institute, alleged the complainant.

Sriram said...

Here is my attempt at a summary of rec1man's analyses (the northern dalit current IQ should be 70). Edit as required.

The Indian population can be grouped in terms of the four traditional caste super-categories (Brahmin, Merchant, Peasant, Dalit/Scheduled Caste/Low caste Muslim) cross-cutting with a North vs. South geographical distinction. The "Brahmin" and "Merchants" have had multiple generations of a literate tradition and also engaged in professions that required greater cognitive ability (memorization, calculation), compared to the "Peasants" (who formed the ranks of the warrior class and had/have the most political power) and Dalits (who also have the least amount of central-west asian-european admixture and have been engaged in menial tasks on the fringes of society).

This model posits a 10 IQ penalty for North Indian groups as a result of Islamic invasions/genocide of north indian elites over a millenia. Improvement in living conditions, nutrition, and access to education is expected to increase mean IQ by 7.5 points by the end of this century. India has the human resource potential to be to be a developed society with advanced technological capabilities by the end of this century. The cognitive elites of India will primarily come from the Brahmin and Merchant super-categories and numerically compare favorably with the other Asian superpower China. This octo-population model provides a more accurate picture of the human resource potential of the Indian population, compared to simplistic unimodal population model with mean IQ of 85 and SD =15.

note: The usage of the 4 caste supercategories is not literal. Syrian christians or Parsees would be Brahmins and the few peasant castes with a literate tradition would be in the merchant class.

Steve Sailer said...

On June 12, Nsam posted a comment providing a short summary, as he sees it, of the current state of Rec1man's research. But now I can't find where Nsam's comment went. Could he repost it here?

Sriram said...

steve I could see it. here it is cut and paste again. rec1man's numbers could possibly be presented in tabular format (present vs future) for the 8 groups.

Here is my attempt at a summary of rec1man's analyses (the northern dalit current IQ should be 70). Edit as required.

The Indian population can be grouped in terms of the four traditional caste super-categories (Brahmin, Merchant, Peasant, and Dalit/Scheduled Caste/Low caste Muslim) cross-cutting with a North vs. South geographical distinction. The "Brahmin" and "Merchants" have had multiple generations of a literate tradition and also engaged in professions that required greater cognitive ability (memorization, calculation), compared to the "Peasants" (who formed the ranks of the warrior class and had/have the most political power) and Dalits (who also have the least amount of central-west asian-european admixture and have been engaged in menial tasks on the fringes of society).

This model posits a 10 IQ penalty for North Indian groups as a result of Islamic invasions/genocide of north indian elites over a millenia. Improvement in living conditions, nutrition, and access to education is expected to increase mean IQ by 7.5 points by the end of this century. India has the human resource potential to be to be a developed society with advanced technological capabilities by the end of this century. The cognitive elites of India will primarily come from the Brahmin and Merchant super-categories and numerically compare favorably with the other Asian superpower China. This octo-population model provides a more accurate picture of the human resource potential of the Indian population, compared to simplistic unimodal population model with mean IQ of 85 and SD =15.

note: The usage of the 4 caste supercategories is not literal. Syrian christians and Parsees would be Brahmins and the few peasant castes with a literate tradition would be in the merchant class. Upper caste muslims would also fall in either the merchant or brahmin supercategory.

Steve Sailer said...

Sorry, I didn't see where you have to go to a new page to see comments 201+. I never had 201 comments before!

Anonymous said...

rec1man here
--

nsam wrote
--
This model posits a 10 IQ penalty for North Indian groups as a result of Islamic invasions/genocide of north indian elites over a millenia
--

Correction

My model predicts a loss of 10IQ points to those who converted to islam thanks to mullahism
and a 5IQ deficit on the surrounding hindu population of north India due to islamic massacres of elites

--

Anonymous said...

I see that the south indian brahmins are as usual tirelessly tooting their horns. Heres a simple question for these self-anointed geniuses: if the brahmins are so very intelligent and if they dominate India so thoroughly in education, bureaucracy, media etc, then why is India such a backward, deeply impoverished hellhole? Muslims, Malays, Hispanics not to mention chinese, japanese, koreans and europeans, are all living in much better conditions than these caste-obsessed hindus. Try traveling to India from Tehran, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Rio, or practically any place, and you will be astounded by how much poorer, filthier, uglier India looks.

Secondly, it is worth noting that the jats etc who are low caste look far more west asian/caucasian than these south indian brahmins. Not surprisingly the jats dominate as actors and models in color conscious India.

Anonymous said...

Some brahmin chest-thumper here wrote that there are no untouchable hindu immigrants in America, which is of course an untruth. Here is an example of an indian untouchable in America who did very well for himself, and unlike the selfish brahmin braggards he actually spent his millions doing something really good for his village in India:

http://www.theverdictindia.com/Personalities.asp

EIGHTY-ONE-YEAR-OLD KUMAR Bahuleyan, a neurosurgeon, who once led a lavish lifestyle that included moving around in a Rolls Royce and five Mercedes, besides an aeroplane, has used the money to build a hospital specialising in neurosurgery, a health clinic and a spa in Chemmanakary in Kerala's Kottayam District. A Dalit based in Buffalo, New York, for the last 34 years, has given 20 million dollars to his village in Kerala.

Bahuleyan said that the desire to do something for his native place germinated between 1982 and 1987, when he visited the area, and found that nothing had changed. He said that he felt like returning something to the village, which had taught him and made him something in life.

Bahuleyan says he lost two younger brothers and a sister to water-borne disease in 1930s, and even today he says he is haunted by their dying screams. As a 'untouchable', Bahuleyan had to take a circuitous route to school because he wasn't allowed to pass a Hindu temple. A brilliant student, he succeeded in joining a medical college in Madras. From their, he proceeded to Edinburgh for six years of neurosurgical training before eturning home.

Anonymous said...

Some brahmin chest-thumper here wrote that there are no untouchable hindu immigrants in America, which is of course an untruth.

rec1man's adjusted model for IQ estimates that 15%of the Indian population in the US are dalits.

Are you suggesting a higher percentage for the model?

Anonymous said...

The posts by rec1man are completely none sensical and seems to be made up from thin air. A case in point, to assign an IQ of 120 or 130 for Brahmans contradicts existing evidance. By his account, there about 55 mil Brahmans with this extraoridinary IQ. Yet we are not seeing this IQ expressed in any sort of achievement by this group of people. In contrast, the Ashkinazi Jews are measured to be a mear 117 and number a few million in the U.S. The over representation in all fields requiring intelligence is astonishing.

Yes, there casts in India are confined to their professions, yet there is a significant difference between this separation and the Jews as a persecuted minority. If a Jew did not do well in their allotted profession, they will die of starvation, there is no other options. On the other hand, being a member of a previlidged cast means that you will still survive somehow even if you are stupid. I don't see the selective pressure that the Jews would have enountered for several hundred years.

Finally, many Indians tout their "Aryan" roots. Being of Aryan descent does not equal to being modern European or American whites. The Persians and Iraqies, where the original "Aryan" invaders of India came from, did not share the same IQ endowment as the European whites and are also reported to by in the mid to high 80's in IQ according to Richard Lynn. Since the Brahmans came from this stock and there is no evidence that evolutionary forces that exist in India is more IQ selective than the environment in, say, Iran, The Brahmans should be close to this level. They do seem to be over represented in Silicon Valley. I would say they are probably in the 90s at the best.

One thing that will become clearer in the coming decades, given the high IQ of the Silicon Valley population, is that their desendants will revert to the mean in the next few generations. We shall find out where the mean is in a couple of decades.

Anonymous said...

This faux-intellectualism is laughable. Tell me, what kind of IQ does it take to purchase a Hummer when oil was above $100/barrel?

Anonymous said...

Steve Sailor makes things up on this blog. Just because Hindus like to say Muslims are low caste converts so he basically goes with what they say. The fact of the matter is, Pakistan has an IQ of 84, 2 points higher than India, while Bangladesh scores 82, the same as India. I am Bangladeshi Muslim in the UK who has cousins that topped their classes in maths and got degrees in maths/statistics from UCL. My nephews are top of their classes, far ahead of white kid in years 6 and 7. Lot of Bangladeshis in the UK came to the UK as economic migrants but the second generation are outperforming white kids. Lot of Bangladeshis have put Islamic fundamentalism on the backburner, and are focused on education.

The reason Brahmins have overachieved in relation to others, is because of the simple reason they haven't allowed anyone else to be educated.

Muslims are a combination of various castes, as well as foreign admixture, usually from West and Central Asia.

Anonymous said...

Fazlur Khan, Bangladeshi Muslim, regarded as the father of modern structural engineering.

Sal Khan of Khan Academy, another Bangladeshi Muslim, probably more intelligent than 99% of Brahmins.

Anonymous said...

Have you considered showing the latest comments (like the 10 most recent comments) in the sidebar? People will be able to see what people are commenting on and therefore the site will remain more active. It's a simple plugin to install.

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