Audacious Epigone points out the recent fall off in Hispanic fertility after the popping of the Bush Bubbles.
In 2007, at the climax of Housing Bubble and the Bush-Kennedy-McCain amnesty push, the Hispanic fertility rate peaked at 102.2 births per 1,000 Hispanic women 15-44, versus 95.9 in the pre-Bush economic peak year of 2000. By 2009, however, the Hispanic fertility rate had fallen off to 93.3. The Hispanic total fertility rate fell from 3.00 in 2007 to 2.73 in 2009. However, illegitimacy continues to increase, growing from 51.3 percent of Hispanic mothers being unmarried in 2007 to 53.2 percent in 2009.
In contrast, the fertility rate among non-Hispanic white youngish women was much lower and somewhat more stable, increasing from 57.7 in 2000 to 60.1 in 2006, then falling to 58.5 in 2009. The white total fertility rate fell from 1.87 to 1.78. The illegitimacy rate among whites grew from 27.8 percent in 2007 to 29.0 percent in 2009.
The picture we see is that the Bush Administration's policy of encouraging dubious mortgages to narrow the racial gap in homeownership rates and goose the economy sucked in illegal immigration and boosted Hispanic fertility. How exactly that would help the GOP in the long run is one of those questions that just isn't even conceivable to the GOP's team of crack strategists.
There's an intellectual No Fly Zone over most anything having to do with population beyond the most banal.
There's an intellectual No Fly Zone over most anything having to do with population beyond the most banal.
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'Crack' is right.
How much of Hispanic illegitimacy is dysfunctional (single mom, absent father) and how much of it takes place in a more stable "common law" marriage?
Illegal immigrants would be reluctant to register a marriage with government authorities, and I hear churches tend to be reluctant to perform marriages for people who don't intend to register with the state.
I always thought "conservatives" like Bush were pushing for Amnesty in order to placate their liberal critics, as in , if we have to have non-whites, we'd rather choose them ourselves. But it seems they were really sold to this crap, as opposed to most liberals who are hypocrites.
"Illegal immigrants would be reluctant to register a marriage with government authorities..."
No. The out-of-wedlock and teen birth rate for their legally present children is sky high, too. In Utah the teen birthrate is ca. 5 times higher than that of whites.
What was the GOP leadership supposed to tell their base? That their immigration policy had been bought with bribes from the cheap labor lobby? That'd go over well.
Of course they can't say that. The claim that they had to win Hispanics for the GOP, "Hispanic family values," and all that, was the best excuse they could come up with for selling out their base, and for trying to get the religious right to support amnesty. With the Mormon Church, at least, it worked.
The white total fertility rate fell from 1.87 to 1.78.
YIKES!!!
Well, Michael Barone (THE top Republican strategist) is insistent that all of those 'little brown folks' are merely the Italians of yesteryear and will all eventually come into the Republican fold.
I posted this in a previous thread, but this one is more relevant. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/us/06census.html
Its about date when white children will become a minority, as well as the overall population.
The first date is 2019, the second 2041.
Italian-Americans, ironically enough, are often conservative on immigration. Tom Tancredo, Sheriff Arpaio, John Tanton, Lou Barletta, and Carl Paladino are tough-on-immigration Italians.
As an ethnic group, I've found that they seem pretty no nonsense and less sentimental about things in general. Almost like they have a street smarts that they picked up from living in the Bronx, Philly, and Staten Island. Lots of Carl Paladino types among them.
Google "Mayor Rizzo" if you want to read about a tough Italian-American mayor that didn't up with crap in his city.
The Bushes are big government establishment Republicans. Don't let that Texan accent fool you. They're basically northeastern establishment politicians that relocated south (Texas and Florida) for economic and political reasons, but they never really embraced southern culture. At heart, they remain Rockefeller Republicans with a strong globalist mindset. Conservative/neoconservative on taxes, business regulation, and war... liberal/moderare on everything else.
Latinizing our country is keeping with everything the Bushes stand for. It also is designed to help half-Hispanic nephew George P. Bush when he decides to run for president some day. Really I think the Bushes want America to become Mexico North becaue it'll help entrench them as political dynasty. Much the same way that all those Irish helped entrench the Kennedys/Fitzpatricks in Massachusettes.
The fertility rate and TFR numbers aren't very reliable because one of their inputs is population size. Both the census and census projections are very inexact. Some have suggested that the census's undercount could be as high as 10% OVERALL, meaning that the undercount of Hispanics would be higher.
What IS reliable, I think, is the number of children born in a given period. I'm assuming that the overwhelming majority of children born, probably above 99.9%, get birth certificates and show up in government statistics. I suspect that the change in the number of Hispanic children born per year would be a more reliable statistic.
"As an ethnic group, I've found that they seem pretty no nonsense and less sentimental about things in general."
Southern Italians are less altruistic, less trusting, more extended-family-oriented than most Europeans. So they don't fall for as much BS as Swedes, for example, do. Since they already expect to be cheated by fellow man, they end up not being cheated as much as other Europeans, either ideologically or materially. Arabs are even less trusting and altruistic than Sicilians, and look how little progress feminism and related plagues have made with them.
It's all very depressing: only an altruistic society can achieve great things - go to the stars, shoot for immortality, figure out the mysteries of the Universe - but altruistic societies are especially vulnerable to being sold on a bunch of BS that destroys them in the process.
"At heart, they remain Rockefeller Republicans with a strong globalist mindset. Conservative/neoconservative on taxes, business regulation, and war... liberal/moderare on everything else."
Elite Republican, elite Democrat...it matters not when it comes to immigration: when people live in pricey Manhattan or estates in Maine or Massachusetts or California or crimeless enclaves in Dallas or Houston and when their social circle live in the same environs, they simply don't experience the laid to waste schools and neighborhoods the rest of live with every day. They literally don't see it and when one doesn't see something, it doesn't exist for them.
Anon:
I think one complication with marriage for immigrants is that it's not uncommon for a man to come here and leave a wife and kids back in Mexico or El Salvador or whatever. Unsurprisingly, a guy who's been living in the US for ten years, a thousand miles away from his wife and kids, often hasn't remained perfectly faithful to her. He's probably not too excited about marrying the girl he got pregnant here in the US, so he can have two familes he's responsible for. I imagine working illegally makes it kinda hard to collect child support from his wages, too.
In normal discourse to call someone a Nazi is an ever popular tactic. It immediately strikes a nerve. Everyone knows that Nazis are bad.
At stop lights I never call the the bad driver next to me an idiot or a Nazi. Rather I call them a "revisionist" - a terrible insult if you're a commie but incomprehensible to the average American. Too many drivers are armed in Oakland for me to share what I really think.
Similarly it is now fashionable to just say "Eugenics" if you want to brand a person or argument as beyond the pale. Why should that be?
My incredibly cute little Cavalier King Charles Spaniel was only a few millenia ago a deadly forest wolf. This seemingly miraculous transformation was effected by illiterate tribesmen following simple rules - eat the one who bites you.
If Obamacare endures it won't be just Death Panels, we will also slide into Eugenics. Michelle and Mayor Bloomberg today want to control what you eat - for your own good of course. Soon they will argue for control over who you marry - also for your own good.
Albertosaurus
They're basically northeastern establishment politicians that relocated south (Texas and Florida) for economic and political reasons, but they never really embraced southern culture.
There is a term for such people: carpetbaggers. They've been present in the Republican Party from its creation.
How exactly that would help the GOP in the long run is one of those questions that just isn't even conceivable to the GOP's team of crack strategists.
Far from being stupid or self-destructive, the Inner Party members of the GOP have done quite well for themselves. I would never underestimate their abilities to look out for their long-term interests.
No, the GOP leaders are not looking after their long term interests. A Majority Latino Texas and Florida, for example, will never elect anything but bonafide Mexican Big Men. No Gringos need apply. Good-bye Bush dynasty. Good-bye Kennedys. Good-bye Pelosis. [Most of the GOP leadership is merely Conservative Dems, which is why the Dems hate them so.]
Mexican fertility is based on welfare transfer payments to support Mexican girls having kids at age 16, continuing to have ninos until age 40 or so. It depends on transferring wealth from Whites, who have only the kids they can afford (1.58 I guess) to Mexicans. It is not sustainable. Neither is the welfare state, with all those Mexicans requiring huge outlays.
The key to the push to Latinize America has not been some hypnotic mind-ray conspiracy, but broad political support among "nice White ladies" (and men) who find moral status mongering a key ingredient for advancement in government/education/think-tanks, and the broader support Educated White Women give to the status mongering.
Western societies where educated Women are not prone to racial-based status mongering ala "Dangerous Minds" have their own TFR ills (Japan, South Korea) but don't annihilate their own racial homogeneity. Western nations do because Educated White Women (who still strongly back Obama compared to other Whites) status-monger and HATE HATE HATE the beta White males around them. Wanting them replaced.
Roissy's key insight is that the sexual behavior of "empowered women" (who actually don't have that much power, really) is heavily linked to the political shift of Western societies. Women with sexual freedom and no real constraints want Big Men. They will do whatever they can to get them. This continues till Menopause and sometimes out of habit, afterwards.
A "diverse" society is one filled with bad boys and various Big Men, and the annihilation of the flat, cooperative middle class White society that produces wealth, but requires "un-sexy" men. Russell Brand is good at being "sexy" but he's unlikely to help engineer an airplane that doesn't say, crack apart after only 15 years of service.
I'd like to know why Albertosaurus is still in Oakland. Didn't he put 35 yrs. into the data processing industry? Must have earned enough to move to Idaho some time ago. I know the pull of the Genova delicatessen is strong, but really.
"It also is designed to help half-Hispanic nephew George P. Bush when he decides to run for president some day"
Can the Bush's be so delusional as to think that the dynasty can continue?
Maybe we could curb birthrates of hispanics by modifying welfare so anyone receiving, will receive enough to live on, but as soon as they have more than 2 children, maybe only 1, they automatically lose all benefits. You could avoid the "racism" calling by saying its to help the budget. Eventually we're going to have to bribe them to stop breeding, or else...,
Agree with the posters above. "In the long run" it's not necessary for the GOP to remain conservative. GOP will cater to any faction or philosophy that wins elections.
In 200 years the GOP might support neo Aztec human sacrifice as a key plank in the party platform.
Steve, I was a mortgage analyst during the subprime boom. I had been a liberal but became a paleocon once I started learning about the community reinvestment act (CRA), Bush plan to get Hispanics into the GOP, etc. I never believed Bush/Rove was sincere about that. They just wanted temporary short-term cheap labor. Neocons don't care about the future of this country. That's why they had no problem getting us into massive amounts of debt.
Steve,
Is there a good way to incorporate the effects of shorter generations and greater willingness to have kids in a single number or graph? I keep feeling like there's probably some standard statistic that should capture this, but I've never seen it.
Yes, it is depressing that the altruism that makes high society achievable, also ends up bringing in lots of non-altruistic people that screw things up.
I've also noticed that when east coast Italian-Americans look at you, they always seem to have an angry and distrustful look in their eye. Almost like they're trying to size you up. There's none of that cheery, let's hold hands type of smiling that you see among Nordics in Wisconsin and Minnesota. It's a shrewd and street tough look and attitude that they carry.
Yes, the Bushes are Carpetbaggers. That's exactly the term I'd use.
Sad thing is that Texans and other southerners still often like the man. Enough that quite a few would like Jeb Bush for President in 2012 or 2016.
If somebody wants the Bushes back in the White House, I just don't know what to say.
Mexicans are not alpha males, Whiskey. Mexicans are more followers than leaders, and tend to be rather docile and submissive people. Low in testosterone and generally not competitive.
The more alpha Latinos would be Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and maybe other types of South Americans. When you merge Italian, Spanish, and (in the Carribean) black blood together, you get lots of alphas. The meztizos are very different from the mulattos and Spanish/Italians.
>The out-of-wedlock and teen birth rate for [Hispanic illegal immigrants'] legally present children is sky high, too. In Utah the teen birthrate is ca. 5 times higher than that of whites. What was the GOP leadership supposed to tell their base?<
The GOP leadership was supposed to tell the base that Hispanic immigrants are the exemplars of family values. Which it did.
After all, don't Hispanics believe in God and Jesus? Yes. They are a churchy people. That = traditional nuclear family, doesn't it?
A major problem with the GOP, and with conservatives generally, is religious blinkerdom. Their belief system (and their beliefs ABOUT their belief system) blind them to realilty on many fronts.
For example, many conservatives believe that religion founded the best aspects of the West, such as scientific progress, demanding architecture, and political freedom. Yet it is a fact that, today, the majority of Christians worldwide are NAMs. Given what we know of HBD, should we think they will they keep Western Man's legacy and build upon it? Weren't the blacks of Detroit church-goers?
In like manner, the GOP pushes the idea that the average mestizo is either Ozzie or Harriet. All people are 1950s white Republicans under the skin; it's only atheistic non-democratic governments that suppress their inner vanilla. That is the belief, at least, of white conservatives...who are a vanishing breed, and no wonder.
Perhaps a little more realism, displacing religion, should be injected into discussions of these matters.
But just try to suggest it to most white conservatives over age 50!
'Mexican fertility is based on welfare transfer payments to support Mexican girls having kids at age 16, continuing to have ninos until age 40 or so. It depends on transferring wealth from Whites, who have only the kids they can afford (1.58 I guess) to Mexicans. It is not sustainable. Neither is the welfare state, with all those Mexicans requiring huge outlays.'
Bingo! It's not just how many kids they have but how soon they start or years between generations. About the time that a reasonably educated US couple puts their first (and only?) kid in first grade, many of these Mexican transplants at the same age are grandmothers. As for welfare transfers see below:
http://cis.org/immigrant-welfare-use-2011
Whiskey:
Women with sexual freedom and no real constraints want Big Men. They will do whatever they can to get them. This continues till Menopause and sometimes out of habit, afterwards.
These poor Lois Lanes never find their Supermen, boo hoo!
"No, the GOP leaders are not looking after their long term interests. A Majority Latino Texas and Florida, for example, will never elect anything but bonafide Mexican Big Men. No Gringos need apply. Good-bye Bush dynasty. Good-bye Kennedys. Good-bye Pelosis. [Most of the GOP leadership is merely Conservative Dems, which is why the Dems hate them so.]"
You can just look at Mexico to see this isn't true. Most of the Mexican presidents and politicians are significantly more European and upper-class than their constituents. They are not even close to being "bona fide" Mexican big men. The GOP will have no problem staying in power. Once again, Whiskey is way off.
"The GOP will have no problem staying in power."
The GOP will have plenty of problem staying in power, at least as a recognizably conservative party. As for whether its leaders are white or not, I couldn't give a shit. What matters to me is that this country remains a decent place to live. It won't.
Its about date when white children will become a minority, as well as the overall population.
The first date is 2019, the second 2041.
2041 my ass. More like 2023.
Italian-Americans, ironically enough, are often conservative on immigration.
Where's the irony?
No, the GOP leaders are not looking after their long term interests. A Majority Latino Texas and Florida, for example, will never elect anything but bonafide Mexican Big Men. No Gringos need apply.
Then how does my father-in-law keep getting elected in a majority-Mexican county in South Texas?
2041 my ass. More like 2023.
You pulled the second number out of your ass.
Well, the Bushes don't have common sense. Take Santa Ana versus Mission Viejo. Santa Ana has an illegatmaacy rate near the 50 percent mark while Misison Viejo is much lower than the anational average higher income whites and a few minorities at only 18 percent. New Por Beach is a very low 7 percentage,. And 38 precnetage asian Irivne is only 11 percent.
David, speaking as a white conservative over 50, who is, I'm betting, acquainted with a lot more conservative Americans over 50 than you are, let me reassure you that you could round up all the illegal immigrants you could find, haul them halfway to Guadalajara, and dump them, without a peep of protest from us.
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